Beware November the 13!

Forsyth MO - On a slow day in October, I decided to look at the month of November and how the temperatures shaped up over the past five years! I specifically wanted to see what the average high and low for each day would look like when graphed out! Here's what I got in the way of a graph:

Here is the raw data:

What struck me was how consistent the 13th of that month had been for all those years - as in consistently cold! So, I thought it would be fun to see what happens this year!

Taney County week of the fourth of July!

MONDAY

I think Monday will be mix of clouds and sun to the north with generally cloudy conditions expected closer to Arkansas. Best rain chances similar to yesterday will reside along the Arkansas border

and portions of far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri later this afternoon and overnight. Lake of The Ozarks region has the lesser rain chances, at least through the short term period, though a rogue shower or storm can't be ruled out across central MO. No widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time due to marginal shear, however, the stronger cells may contain some strong gusty winds.

TUESDAY - Happy Fourth if July!!

A more well established mid-level impulse/vort max will roll into our region, unfortunately right in time for Independence Day festivities.

As we head into Tuesday daytime and evening, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread east and north across the Missouri Ozarks. The threat for severe storms looks marginal, especially for fireworks celebrations in and around Taney county. Any severe threat would be confined to line segments with a damaging wind threat.

As the vortex slowly slides eastward, we'll need to monitor not only a threat for some strong thunderstorm winds, but also localized flash flooding given the slow forward progression of the vort/short wave, which may not fully move out of our area until Wednesday or even by early Thursday.

WEDNESDAY

As the the trough finally clears, a strong upper level ridge should spread east at least temporarily from the Rockies. This should limit rainfall chances and increase afternoon temperatures just a bit. Being on the eastern side of this high, northwesterly flow will still be over our region. Guidance does swing a few minor impulses down our way from the northern plains, which should cause at least a subtle increase in diurnally driven showers/storms. This may also keep temperatures in the middle and upper 80's vs the lower 90's.

THURSDAY & Onward

We should then get a break in the action on Thursday with at least a low-end chance for storms returning on Friday as a front approaches from the north. Global models then insist on a northwesterly flow aloft becoming more amplified from this weekend into early next week. This would support that front moving south into the Missouri Ozarks, or perhaps even south of the area into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Ultimately, the position of this front will dictate precipitation chances. At this point, we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range from this weekend into early next week.

Temperatures should return to near normal values towards the tail end of this abbreviated work week before we again see a slight cooling trend with the arrival of that front this weekend.

Winter storm system slated to just graze the Forsyth MO area!

Forsyth MO – The weather scenario, while not set in concrete, was coming more into focus...

Beginning Tuesday night (Feb 23) – an area of low pressure will traverse just to the south and east of Forsyth MO. Warm air aloft with some forcing ability will likely keep this a mostly all rain event through the evening hours with a gradual transition to snow, first occurring in the higher elevations and the spreading over south central and eastern Missouri as we go through the overnight hours. Even with the warm ground, the feeling was that there could be some bands of snow heavy enough (aided by gusty winds) to perhaps briefly cause travel conditions in the early morning hours of Wednesday. See www.taneyservices.com for more!

Is the drought over? Will Bull Shoals flood?

Is the local area drought ending? Will River Run Park flood again? Two very good questions. As my readers may know, much of the south central and western states have been locked in a severe drought over the past couple of years. And, while Taney County in Missouri, where I reside, is nowhere near as bad as some parts of Texas and Oklahoma, concern is still evident by many.

However, rainfall over the past month of May and now early on in June, has been encouraging. We seem (and I use that word sparingly) to be transitioning into a wetter regime. Let's take a look at some recent rainfall figures for Forsyth and West Plains Missouri. See spreadsheet at right. The June figure was as of June the 4th. On the morning of the 5th, we received 1.01 inches here in Forsyth (no data yet for West Plains). This would bring our yearly total to 14.92 inches which would still put us 8.74 inches behind the average with the better part of a month yet to go to make up the difference! This graph which shows rainfall amounts versus the average through June clearly illustrates that the Forsyth are is on a

positive run! Even though we were lagging behind January through April, we jumped forward in May and even surpassed the average historical amounts to a good degree. Now, a we enter into the early stages of June, the forecast is for unsettled weather going into the second week! That a very good thing if it pans out.

Finally, a quick peak at Bull Shoals river levels as compared to 2011 when the entire River Run and Shadowrock Parks area were flooded all summer, you can see that while the levels are elevated, they would still have a ways to go to reach those levels!

 Having made those statements, I always feel it's better to have a little more water than not enough. If the parks flood, then they flood as after all, they are designated flood plains. The next thirty days will more than likely tell the tale as to how this summer is going to proceed!

Track the weather in Taney County Missouri in real time at www.taneyservices.com!

Disclaimer: Every effort is made by the author to insure the figure supplied in this post are accurate.  If and error was made, please contact him at Forsythkid@Gmail.com!

January and February temperature graphs

Both graphs represent actual temperature readings for Forsyth Missouri.

December 5th weather may be mixed!

The first Thursday in December 2013 looks like it might get a bit interesting as the national Weather Service does not have a good handle on the precipitation types that may impact parts of southern and southwestern Missouri. Depending on the exact nature and depth of a 'warm nose' that will be draped over the border counties between Missouri and Arkansas, there exists the possibility for ice accumulations late Thursday, especially on elevated surfaces. At some point, this dome of warm mid level air will get pushed to the south. And, at that time, any additional precipitation would then fall as snow. Let me see...snow over ice...not a good idea! That said, accumulating snow is still expected across the entire area with the heaviest amounts falling from late Thursday into Friday morning. The snow will then taper off from west to east Friday afternoon.

Bitterly cold temperatures will then settle on in for Friday and the weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 20's! Overnight, the mercury may bottom out somewhere in the single digits and man, that will be pretty darn cold!!! But wait! Yet another frontal system may come through the area on Sunday, and while it isn't forecast to be as strong as the previous system, any additional stuff that falls from the sky will be in the form of snow and could add to the snow pack!

Anyway, a rather wintry start to the month!

The weather outside is frightful, and it's still November!

More than a half-foot of snow fell across Pueblo, Colorado on November 23, 2013 in a winter storm that's part of a system that headed to North Texas and which will impact the East Coast on Thanksgiving!

With Thanksgiving 2013 just around the corner, I thought it might be fun to think a little about December and some weather trends of note.

One of the great things about being an ordinary and non-professional person is the inability of most everyone to hold me to account when I make my weather predictions! While I'm certainly no expert, I am colorful! Way back in August, I made some predictions about what I felt was to come for the winter season of 2013-14. And, I think I mentioned that we might get some 'weird weather' in the form of ice, snow and even record cold. (For their part, the weather service is calling for a rather dry, non snowy and warmer than normal December and January). How boring!

Well, here it is, late November and already some exposed surfaces have been 'exposed' to ice! Close locations, like Arkansas just to our south, have also experienced the bite of winter with much colder than normal temperatures and even a little ice storm thrown in for good measure! Texas, unfortunately, got clobbered with a storm that has left 8 dead as of this post. So, yes, things are getting a little weird out there and that weirdness is starting a bit early! Early and persistent cold conditions across much of the Midwest have helped to set the stage for some potentially exciting times later in the season! Stay tuned, as things may only go downhill from here...

Will area parks flood in the fall of 2013?

Water levels above 668' will insure some flooding

After a couple of bouts of heavy rainfall early on in August, a couple of people inquired as to the possibility of some flooding occurring in either River Run or Shadow Rock Park. These two, side by side, parks are popular spots for campers and RV'ers who visit the Forsyth area in here in southwest Missouri. This year has seen a steady stream of vacationers with the best of the fall season yet to come.

Now, as I do not proclaim to be any sort of meteorological or hydrological expert, my opinions carry

Boat launch at River Run Park

little if any (ahem) water. But, living right next to the Bull Shoals river way does give me a chance to view the water levels on a day to day basis. And, this year, close to and slightly above normal rainfall has lead to water levels that have hovered at or near the 665 foot mark with 654 feet being the lower limit of the so-called 'flood pool'; a target level which the Corps of Engineers strives for. The above graphic shows, we've been above that level for most of the summer. Now, what with all the rainfall across the much of the southern portion of the state, these levels are sure to rise over the next week or so. A situation that would only be exacerbated if more rain does fall as predicted by the weather service.

The bottom line, in my opinion, is that we stand a good chance of seeing some flooding of the River Run side with little or no flooding of Shadow Rock Park.

Sunday, August 11 Update: The water level at Bull Shoals hit 664.60 feet this morning and as you can see some of the lower parts of the park are just beginning to flood. I'm guessing that no real problems will be encountered until the level hits and surpasses the 670 foot mark. At the current rate of water level rise (.82' per day) that would be on or about the August the 18th.

The ice storm that really wasn’t!

When I were to think about all the really bad possibilities this latest winter storm presented, I'm very thankful for all that it was not.

Promptly, at 6 AM this morning, I was wakened from a sound slumber by a crack of thunder just outside my window. Shortly afterwards the skies opened up and honest to goodness thunder ice was falling all about my house located near Forsyth Missouri. (Had this persisted more than a few minutes it would been a true disaster as very quickly every surface was covered with a sheen of ‘lumpy’ ice, or more technically, a form of sleet called graupel)! Thankfully, a dry slot appeared and gave the area a nice reprieve from about six to nine AM.

At 9 AM, I ventured outside to check on the street in front of my home and found it to still be ice covered. A radio station, KRZK, earlier informed me that most of the main roads were clear and that was a comforting thought. So, even with a strong wind coming out of the east, I felt that perhaps the worst of this storm was over and done…. and then I heard more thunder!

By 10 AM, the skies were once again becoming dark, or at least darker than they had been a short time before. The mercury which had been slowly climbing had also started to slide downwards a bit and a glance at the local radar was not very re-assuring. (Even the radar was slower than normal to refresh – a hint that a lot of people were accessing the same site).

At 9:56 AM a hard shower of sleet came through and then quickly tapered of to a light drizzle of ice. I reflected that it was actually good thing that the air outside was cold enough so that we were getting ice rather than freezing rain at that time!

This pattern of on again off again precipitation was to be repeated for the rest of the morning, depositing just enough sleet and freezing rain to keep the secondary roads in my area ice covered! Chatter from a police scanner located close by also informed me that the roads were pretty much free of civilian vehicles -  a sign that most everyone heeded the warnings that had been posted earlier.

So passes our first real winter storm of the season. Now, if it would just warm up enough on Thursday to melt all this stuff, I'd be a happy camper!

Feb 20th will be a toss of the Wx Dice!

While God may not play dice with the universe, Mother Nature can gamble with the best of em!

The National Weather Service, bless them, is not about to get caught with another busted forecast as has so often been the case this winter. No sir! This time they’re throwing in everything but the proverbial kitchen sink when describing the winter storm that is due to impact the Forsyth are sometime overnight on Wednesday, February the 20^th!

As of this posting, the factors coming into play on that day are both complex and problematic! While the weather prognosticators are pretty sure that some wet stuff will fall all across the area, they seem to be at loss to say exactly what form it will take. My bet is on all snow beginning late in the evening with a slow transition to sleet and then ice in the early morning hours of Thursday. (Having said that, this could be just another all rain event this far to the south with all the interesting stuff happening way up by Springfield).

Whatever may happen, I’d personally advise anyone who normally travels anytime between late Wednesday and overnight Thursday to call in sick, drink a glass of warm milk and then pull the covers back over your head and stay in bed for the duration.

July 2012: the first week!

After literally baking in 100 plus heat for all of the first week of July, we got some rain on the eight. Now, the new regime appears it could be both high heat coupled with high humidity! Sometimes it seems you just can’t win.

Currently, the total rainfall stands at .84 of an inch (the average is 3.15 for the month) with only a hope of more to come in the form of popup showers. Other than a very weak frontal boundary that barely moves, there has been nothing in the way of an organized front to get the atmosphere percolating once again. 

Thankfully, the water that did deign to fall (.04 on Saturday the 7^th and .80 on the 8^th), has done a lot to perk up both the lawns and the trees in my area. While it may be hard to see so early on, these three pictures show a marked improvement in the color of the grass which had been almost all brown.

One thing that appears to be for sure; the temperatures are trending upwards possibly in response to climate change. A change that may be accelerating. Each day of the first week averaged out to 104F. Even more disturbing was how warm the overnight periods were averaging at just under the 70 degree mark. The normal average has been 65 over the past thirty years! This trend, should it stick, will bode poorly.

An arctic invasion - Feb 10 - Day 1

Darkness settles in on a clear Feb evening! Wait! Up there in the corner! Is that Uranus?

'It seems to me that just about all winter long we've been spared harsh temperatures here in North America while the folks living in Europe have been getting it dished out to them big time! But, are we overdue for a change in the climate guard?' Well, time will tell...

The weather service is forecasting for two events over the next couple of days; a blast of honest to goodness arctic air from the North Pole and wintry precipitation, most likely in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Should make for an interesting time, if you're a weather nut like myself!

The Arctic Express!

From Canada to my doorstep in no time!

Right on cue, and in line with the National Weather Service forecast, we had an arctic front slam its way past my little southwestern Missouri town of Forsyth in the early afternoon hours of Friday, February the 10^th. (You can most always tell when a front has a pant-load of cold air by the speed at which it makes it from the Canadian border to my front porch)! Starting at 2:30 PM, I kept an 'ad-hoc  spreadsheet' which produced the graph seen below. The winds, which accompanied the front, picked up out of the north and were relatively constant from that point on until Saturday morning when they had calmed down just a bit. The average speed was about 5-7 mph with gusts to 13!

Wonder what caused the temps to briefly flat-line?

Shortly after six pm, the downward temperature spiral hit the freezing mark and then continued creeping on down. (Not sure why there was an hour long pause in the trend just prior, however). About this time, dusk was falling and the sky which had been overcast, cleared! (Not very good signs as they indicated some 'radiational cooling' might occur as a result). Sure enough, by 1AM we were flirting with 19°F. and the rate of temperature loss was at about 1° degree Fahrenheit per hour.

The next morning dawned partly cloudy and very cold at just 14°F above zero by 7AM. Those pesky arctic winds were also still in play, coming resolutely out of the north (abet more slowly). Mornings like this reminded me of living in Chicago when it got so cold your hands would stick to the car door handle! So, this was not a day I'd normally want to venture out, but I did anyway. I wanted to go have breakfast at a local eatery, so I bundled myself up, got into my Jeep and made the trek into town. I'll tell you right now, it felt every bit as cold as I imagined it would!

Hot food is the order of the day!

Hey! A man's gotta eat! Right?

I arrived at a restaurant named Charlie's Steak Ribs and Ale in Forsyth, Mo. at about 8AM to find just a few patrons also having breakfast. I remembered, then that it was after all a Saturday morning and most folks didn't need to get out of bed. The food was good, however, and did I mention it was hot! In short order, it was time to pay my tab and depart!

Back out on the streets, the traffic was light. Typical for an early weekend. I got home, in short order, and checked my gauges to find the temperature had gotten all the way up to 16°F!

Gonna be a hot one, I thought! Well, at least I'll have time to run to the grocery store and stock up today before things get really nasty on Sunday.

[end of day 1]

A hobbled together spring 2012 weather forecast!

After looking through some of the technical jargon from the National Weather Service, I was able to come up with a few snippets of information concerning the educated 'guessing' that will make up part of the long range forecast for North America this coming spring and summer.

Two of the large driving forces for weather, the ENSO or El Nina Southern Oscillation and the AO or Arctic Oscillation seem to be change dynamically as we head into early spring. While we have been living under the effects of La Nina for some time now, that appears to be weakening. This may have the effect of bringing wetter conditions along the northwest and northeastern coasts while dryer conditions will prevail across much of the south.

In addition the Arctic Oscillation which had been strongly negative the past two winters has shifted to positive earlier this winter and the trend of warmer weather for the states should then continue. Just these two factors along would imply that southwest Missouri can expect to see dry, but warmer than normal conditions as we head into the spring months.

I'm not sure if anything has been released officially at this point and want to remind my readers that I am not a meteorologist.

Weather Summary for first half of January 2012 in Taney County!

“The winter of aught twelve has been rather strange

Flying on past me like a freight train.

Boxcars repeat and flash before my eyes

In cyclical patterns that none could denigh

Telling a tale of warmth followed by cold

As high follows low, a story unfolds.”

And that poor attempt at a rhyme pretty much sums up the zonal flow pattern that has been our weather here, not only in southwest Missouri, but across the Nation. The fronts have come through pretty much from west to east, never seeming to stay very long. As a result, even though there have been a few cold spells, they haven't lasted more than a few days before another warmup builds in behind them. Not that I'm complaining, mind you!

The first two weeks of January have certainly followed this see saw pattern, as you can see in the graph of temperature highs and lows. And, because the incursions of cold Canadian air have had limited opportunities, it's also been a rather warm two weeks. The average or mean temperature has been 6 degrees above the historical average. That's huge! That fact combined with the lack of snow across much of the country is unusual and has me guessing again about global warming.

It has also been a dry two week period with only just about an inch of rain. Traditionally, we will have over three inches for the month, so there is also some concern over the deficit. Everyone, especially the farmers, are concerned as to the possibility of drought conditions as we head on into late winter. I know that in Texas, this is a major concern, so everyone is watching the skies these days.

Winter weather more likely now on Monday Dec 19

After looking at some of the grids and after making some wild guesses, I think there is an increasing likelihood for snow or sleet or ice to impact portions of southwest Missouri as early as Monday evening, December the 19th. While the exact track and type of precipitation at still up in the air, the odds are that Missouri locations along a belt extending from a Cassville to Salem line will be battleground central.

Whether or not this will pan out is anybodies guess. But, it will be fun tracking the low pressure system coming out of the Baja region of California beginning sometime over the coming weekend.

Following is some of the latest professional discussion from the NWS:

“As it stand right now...a track from Cassville to Salem would yield a period of rain on Monday and on Monday night...with precipitation changing to snow as cold air streams in behind the surface low and a well developed 'TROWAL*' structure moves over much of Missouri.

Obviously...the surface track will likely change from its current depiction in the computer "Model World"...and even just a small change either north or south will cause a drastic change on thermal profiles and the precipitation type...as well as surface temperatures and thus any wintry precipitation accumulations.”

*Trough of Warm Air ALoft. Typically used during winter weather, it is a "tongue" of relatively warm/moist air aloft that wraps around to the north and west of a mature cyclone. It is best analyzed between 750-550 milibars using equivalent potential temperature (theta-e). Areas of intense lift and frontogenesis are commonly associated with TROWALs, hence they are favored regions for heavy and/or prolonged precipitation. During a winter storm, the heaviest snowfall amounts frequently occur along and north of the TROWAL axis.

December 18 followup: Still looking good for some snow to impact the I-44 corridor by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Heaviest snow looks to be in Texas panhandle region at this time.

December 19 followup: It now looks as though parts of AZ and NM will get his with lots of snow with blizzard conditions possible is some areas. Also impacted, at this time will be parts of western Kansas. The forecasted northerly track of this storm would seem to indicate that  southwest Missouri will miss out on much of the wintry action settling instead for a mostly rain event.

December 20 followup: Now looking like the system of snow will pretty much miss Missouri entirely. Still, it did pack quite a punch in some of the states off to the west!