Monday, November 27, 2017

Taney County weather for last work week of November!


Light southerly winds and some passing cirrus were keeping temps in the low 40's east to the low 50's west for Monday early. A developing surface low pressure across Arkansas will then move slowly east as the day progresses. This combined with rising heights/thicknesses and a tightening pressure gradient across the plains will result in a very warm and windy day today across the Taney County area. We went a few degrees higher than guidance for highs given latest performance of overachieving highs during these southwest wind setups. Also, computers models have handled expected dew points poorly lately, especially during peak afternoon mixing and have followed alternative thinking for today which promotes a slower moisture return. This dry air will bode potentially ill winds, as a result...

The warm and windy conditions will only exacerbate the fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning will be issued for portions of the area on Monday. Southerly winds will also help to keep temps up tonight ahead of a cold front moving south into Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa. Fun times!


A weather front is forecast to dig into the Rockies on Tuesday with an associated cold front moving through in the evening as low pressure develops across Oklahoma. This system, while compact, will not have much moisture or instability with it and rainfall amounts will be rather light on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through. Models move this system through rather slowly and eventually a wave to our north will kick it along Wednesday night along with a stronger cold front.


After the balmy temperatures of the last few days, cooler temperatures are on tap for Wednesday with highs expected to be in the upper 50's to perhaps lower 60's. These temperatures out there are still a solid 10-15 degrees above normal. So, we can't complain too much!

Lingering light rain showers may then hold on across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday morning as another short wave trough quickly moves into the region behind the departing closed upper level low. Otherwise, dry weather will return to the area for the remainder of the week. Temperatures through Saturday will remain above normal with highs in the upper 5'0s to lower 60's and lows in generally in the 30's.


Global models then continue to indicate a large scale pattern change as we get into next week. However, significant differences remain in the synoptic scale regarding timing and placement of
troughs. The good news is that regardless of any particular model solution, we should stand increasing chances for precipitation starting early next week as a southwesterly flow aloft develops and Gulf of Mexico moisture returns north.

Looking ahead, five wave charts indicate a long wave pattern which would then support a deepening trough over eastern North America with a signal for cross-polar flow. If this pans out, much colder temperatures may be on the way as we get towards the end of next week. See the Climate section below for more detailed information.


By Sunday, an upper level trough will develop across the western U.S. with a sharp upper level ridge building along the West Coast into southwest Canada. A strong cold front will start sliding
southward across the Central Plains and move into our region Monday night. Ahead of the front on Monday, winds will be breezy 15 to 20 mph. Models indicate a good chance of widespread light rainfall Monday night into Tuesday across the area with QPF amounts around a quarter of an inch. There may be just enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder but no severe weather is

A large and deep trough develops and digs across the Great Lakes Region into the Midwest Region by the middle of next week. All medium and long range guidance indicates a much colder weather pattern will likely develop with below normal temperatures for the middle and end of next week.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

November – An overnight freezing event!

Forsyth MO. – Even though the thermometer had dropped a bit below the freezing mark (29ºF) on the evening before, I thought it might be worthwhile to chronicle the Tuesday, November 21, 2017.

The weather forecast for Taney County, located in southwest Missouri, was as follows;

 'AM Clouds/PM Sun. High near 60ºF. WSW winds shifting to NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Nighttime: Clear. Low 27ºF. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph'.

A high pressure system, that was forecast to build off to the west of my area overnight was the supposed culprit, as it would bring (initially) northerly winds and clear skies. Oh joy! This sort of development would also have a rather poor effect on the day Wednesday, with the only good news being a return to better temps as the winds swing around on Thursday, after its passage off to the east!

[more to come...]

Taney County weather week three including Thanksgiving!


Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Tuesday with short wave energy digging southeast across the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this wave will quickly move southeast
across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from late this morning into this afternoon.

The 00Z GFS spits out some light QPF with this front late this morning and early this afternoon, however inspection of forecast soundings indicates that the low levels will be too dry to support a mention of rain showers. We will see quite a bit of cloud cover today, especially in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The passing front and cloud cover make high temperatures a tough call today. We are getting a fairly warm start this morning with most areas in the 40's. We should therefore be able to warm into the middle to upper 50's for highs. It should be noted that temperatures may actually steady off or even begin to fall behind that front north of the Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then build south across Kansas into northern Oklahoma Tuesday late. It looks like a rather chilly night under clear skies with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s.

With that high remaining west of the region, we will maintain a north wind overnight in the 5-10 mph range. This will drop wind chills into the middle and upper teens. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist with occasional short wave energy diving southeast in the flow. These passing short waves will do nothing more than drag dry cold fronts through the region every three to four days. This will bode well for anyone with travel plans across the region from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

As you would expect, temperatures will fluctuate in this type of pattern. We will see a nice warming trend starting on Thanksgiving with highs warming well into 50's. Highs in the 60's are then expected for Friday before temperatures cool back down a bit for next weekend.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Third November week to see hard freeze?

Blue line is the freezing mark!

Tuesday, November the 21st, and then again on the following Sunday, November the 27th both look to be Taney County's (probable) first encounter with seriously cold temperatures over night. And while ground and roads would be too warm for any problems to occur, it might still be a thought to make sure that you are 'winter' ready. If you have a home with outside water spigots, make sure that any hoses are disconnected. I you have a crawl space – now would be a good time to make sure that any vents are closed and that exposed pipes have some form of insulation. Failing that, place a small space heater there and perhaps let a few faucets drip overnight! Seriously, a broken water pipe is no fun!

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Taney weather November 13 to 17!


On Sunday, front pushes away from the area with high pressure building southward into the region in the afternoon.Yeppers, it's that dreaded time of the year, when the weather is both annoying and boring to most everyone!


After a cloudy start to the day, clouds should be on the decrease in the afternoon, with clear skies Sunday night into Monday.

The high shifts off to the east Monday night, with return flow on its backside which continues through Tuesday night. Warm advection showers are expected during this time frame, but should be
scattered in nature. Whoppee!


Computer models do forecast a few hundred j/kg of most unstable CAPE Tuesday night as low level jet noses into the forecast area. Will have to watch for the potential for some thunder. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the upswing with highs ranging from the middle 60's in southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri, to the upper 50's across the eastern Ozarks. Everyone! Grab your shorts!


The 'somewhat active' weather pattern will continue for mid week as yet another upper trough and surface front is poised to move through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will keep the shower chances going through the period, which may last into Thursday depending on frontal position.


A more zonal pattern will setup for late in the week and another upper level disturbance may track trough the region during the later part of next week bringing additional chances for rain with it's
passage on Friday.

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Taney County weather forecast for November 6 - 10!


This from the National Weather Service -

'Ultimately there doesn't appear to be much excitement in the forecast through the next seven days.' I was going to head over to Fresno, but there wasn't much going on over there either...
A cooler air mass will spread into the area behind a weekend front as highs only in the 50's occur. An upper level disturbance will likely spread across the area Monday afternoon/night and will bring additional chances for showers to the area, with the better potential generally south of I-44.

This rather boring scenario (abet with no rainfall) will be followed with highs only in the 40's Tuesday and Wednesday. [Might be getting time for me to hibernate]!


Another upper level disturbance will move through the area during the middle and end of the week and bring additional rain chances with their passage. OK, so this sort of nonsense will not be an all week rain event, but rain will be possible at times.

Temperatures will warm back into the 50's for the end of the week into next weekend. Really?