Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Saturday, May 18 could see severe weather!

Forsyth MO. - This from the NWS:

[On Saturday, surface backed winds ahead of a northeast lifting low will yield adequate directional shear ahead of the cold front. In addition, a favorable Gulf fetch will maintain a moisture- laden
air mass with dew points in the mid 60's.

All of these ingredients may lead to the development of discrete super cells across southwest Missouri Saturday evening into Sunday, with all modes of severe weather possible.

While it is easy to get excited and lost in the model data, it is important to note that America's RAOB network will not begin sampling this potential storm for another 36-48 hours. Thus, be cautious not to over-hype yet.

Monday and Tuesday also look active with severe weather possible, but the models will undoubtedly change between now and then...]


In general, broad scale or regional weather pattern setups do not often veer to far from the average as seen by the computer models. That said, I do plan to really focus my attention to the grids that will present themselves on Friday, May the  17th. I plan to then do a followup forecast...

 Update: May 16 - 'The convection which develops over western and central KS on Friday is expected to shift eastward and possibly into the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday morning. If this occurs, the severe risk for Saturday could be conditional on just how much clearing can take place along with the resulting instability that might develop during the day for redevelopment of new storms. Note, however, that shear looks to be sufficient as the upper low begins to pivot northeast over KS during the daytime Saturday. Very moist air will be across the area and convection will likely cause intense rainfall at the very least. This initial upper level wave should move east of the area by Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will begin to push into northern CA on Sunday morning and into the Rockies Sunday night into Monday. Strong to severe convection will again be possible
across the central and southern plains Monday into Tuesday, more likely Monday night into Tuesday across the CWA. Combined, these two systems are expected to bring around 2 to 5 inches of rain
across the area through next Tuesday, which will probably bring about some more flooding to the region.'

Also, see this article.... Apparently some others also feel this could be a big deal!

May 17 - 'Saturday (May 18) looks very active as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region. Severe thunderstorms are likely, while chances for excessive rainfall are increasing as well. Precipitable water values will run around 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal in an area with large scale ascent for several hours over the four state area.'

That was the latest from the NWS and the way I took it was to assumes that all forms of nastiness were still on the table.

May 18 - 'We will not be issuing a flood watch, since trying to pinpoint any areas that will receive excessive rain is proving to be difficult at this time. Therefore we utilized a super blend approach in populating the rainfall forecasts. However, I will say there are multiple models picking up on high rainfall rates, suggesting that localized amounts of over 3 inches will be possible through tonight.

There will also be a risk for severe weather, with all modes possible. Utilizing a RAP environment/HRRR convective prog statistical approach in forecasting short term severe weather, we
could receive a very busy episode of severe storms this afternoon. The longer the storms take to arrive, the more unstable the atmosphere will get, which will create a more volatile environment.' [Some wording paraphrased].

10:00 AM - Tornado Watch #182 issued for Taney County!

Aftermath: The storm front hit hard and fast at about 4:30 PM. Some area damage resulted along with power outages at my location as well as areas along Highway Y in Forsyth MO. Sadly, my anemometer was knocked out which forced me to order a replacement. Total rain at my station was .54 inches.

Monday, May 13, 2019

Anemometer down, sort of!

Forsyth MO. - My anemometer and wind direction instruments were relocated as work was being done on my 4th floor condo railing. Using what I had on hand, I jury rigged a temporary stand  and so my wind and wind direction reading my be a bit off for the next week or so.

Working on the balcony with no railing was an 'interesting' experience.

Friday, May 10, 2019

Park flood watch 2019 and a possible solution!

Old pic (2017) of past flood of Bulls Shoals by Shadowrock Park
Forsyth MO. - Once again I was destined to sadly watch two area parks flood out. In general this had been happening about every two years or so. And, if you look at the rainfall data I had compiled at right, you can see that even on semi-normal year of rainfall, the parks could still become inundated. So what gives?

Bull Shoals Dam
Part of the problem lies within the state of Arkansas. Whenever that region gets above average rates of rainfall, we here in southwest Missouri will suffer as the Corps of Engineers are often forced to restrict the Bull Shoals dam (located in NE Arkansas) release rates.This creates a situation similar to what the kids did by building a cofferdam in the barrens in the Stephen King novel 'It'. Their actions caused all the sewage in the town of Derry Maine to back up and what a mess that was! That sort of describes what occurs whenever that dam in Arkansas cannot release enough water. The entire Bull Shoals reservoir backs up and large scale flooding results.

Canal in California
What exacerbates the problem, even more so, is the upstream reservoirs of Beaver and Table-Rock lakes which, when above full pools, feed the excess water into the 13 mile stretch of Taneycomo lake when then overflows the Powersite Dam on into Bull Shoals which then floods out valuable real estate. In my limited view, this entire string of reservoirs and dams was poorly thought out starting back in the 50's when the dams were constructed.Yet, perhaps, that was all that could be done at the time...

So what might be one possible solution? My thought was to obtain Federal funding for the construction of a canal, similar to what is commonly seen in California, that could run straight down to the Gulf of Mexico! Such an effort would cost billions of dollars, but could also act as a 450 mile long reservoir that could have mini hydro electric generators installed along it route to supply electricity to the towns and cities that were impacted by its construction. This could be a win-win situation for that entire region of the Central United States.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Storms batter SW Missouri on last day of April!

Forsyth MO. - And just like that two popular area parks near Forsyth were closed. Shadowrock and River Run Parks both look like they will visiting Davy Jones locker, yet again, as climate change begins to make itself felt everywhere!

Friday, April 26, 2019

Will River Run flood out - Part II?

May 2017 Powersite Dam
I paraphrased a National Weather Service forecast of potential doom that was published on April the 26, 2019 to read as follows:

A weather pattern change continues into early next week, setting the stage for a potentially very active week. Medium range computer models continue to advertise increasing low level moisture, southwest flow aloft and a meandering surface boundary near the Taney County area. This will likely result in periods of heavy rain along with the potential for several bouts of severe weather. However, details are still sketchy this far out, and certainly later forecasts need to be monitored as we head through the weekend.

With all three Tri-Lake reservoirs currently at, or above full pool levels, any episodes of heavy rainfall could result in the rapid flooding of parts of Lake Taneycomo (on a temporary basis) and all of Bull Shoals in the long term. Just how the scenario of storms will play out, the exact amounts and locations will greatly affect how severe flooding problems could become. 

It was my belief that the weather should begin to get interesting on or about Wednesday, May 1st. At right is a graphic showing water levels for all three reservoirs. I was guessing that part of the problem was with a restricted rate of flow at the Bull Shoals dam on the Arkansas border. This likely due to the Mississippi River setting record levels! And, since that problem isn't going to go away very soon, I felt that the survival of my two favorite parks; Shadowrock and River Run, would be entirely dependent on how much rain actually fell in the first week of May.

701.48 04-26-2019   12:45 CDT
So, only time will tell... At right Powersite Dam was releasing water on April 26, 2019.

Update: April 27 - The baroclinic zone then meanders near the area from Monday though Thursday as upper flow becomes more southwesterly. As has been previously mentioned, this set up is conducive to periodic showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain potential along with the potential for some strong to severe storms. The most impactful period looks to be Monday night through Tuesday night as a shortwave lifts out of the desert southwest and traverses the area. A corridor of precipitable water values of 1.50" to 1.75" feeding into the boundary with likely result in heavy rainfall.

At right is an animation of flood and high flow conditions for national rivers and streams. Note the condition of the mid parts of the Mississippi river system. That heavy load of flood waters will be making its way down to rivers that help drain the Tri-Lakes as we progress into early May. In my opinion, this could spell trouble for parts of southwest Missouri.

Update: Right on schedule, a massive system arrived on the last day of April to unload 2 to 3 inches of rain all across the region with more to come as we entered bravely into May. That will pretty much seal the fate of the two parks to a watery grave for 2019. Pics to come!

Friday, April 12, 2019

Heavy rains set for Saturday, April 13!

Forsyth MO. - An active weather pattern looked posed to invade the Midwest with heavy rainfall set to impact much of southern Missouri and all of Arkansas!

Precipatible water amounts of 1 to 2 inches looked to fall on the watershed that surrounds the Tri-Lake set of reservoirs which are comprised of Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals lakes. Fortunately, all three bodies of waters were at or below normal full pool levels. And before anyone asks is this had been a cold or warm start to spring, I can say that we are about 5.5 degrees abov ethe 30 year average!

Monday, March 11, 2019

Mid March 2019 forecast temps!

Forsyth Mo. - Mid March was to be everything cool, everything slightly wet and nothing to enjoy outdoors! Unless you're a duck, perhaps!

Update: Last 11 days of March looking good!

Friday, March 8, 2019

River Run closed in March 2019!

Forsyth MO. - One of two popular parks near the town of Forsyth Mo. which is situated in southwest corner of the state was closed recently and just why remained a mystery to me.

For whatever reason, the Army Corps of Engineers located in the Little Rock District of Arkansas and who can be reached by calling (870) 445-7166, had decided to close the park to public access as I discovered on the morning of Friday, March 8, 2019. The Park itself was mostly high and dry as water levels at Bull Shoals were dropping fairly rapidly. The graphic at right depicts the water levels as of March 8, 2019. The level at 9AM that day was measured at 665.66 feet or about 6.66 feet above normal levels.

So, the question becomes... Just what does the Corps know that the rest of us don't. Perhaps some who read this can give them a call to find out!

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Bull Shoals levels holding in there!

Forsyth Mo. - Thanks to a somewhat lackluster start to March 2019 in the rainfall department, the Bull Shoals Lake levels had dropped back down, just a bit, with the trend likely to continue until around March 8 and 9 when storms were forecast to impact the region. That said Beaver Lake was 1.63 feet above full pool and thus posed a potential problem if we were to be inundated with heavy rains at any point in the month! Please note that the level at which the Corps of Engineers would actually close River Run is mere conjecture on my part.

Update: March 5 - Powersite dam was running strong!And, the Corps must have also been releasing at the dam by the border as River Run Park looked to be in fairly good shape with the water level at 667.47 feet.

Update : March 6 - The lake levels continued to drop, so that was good news. The only fly in the ointment was the unsettled weather pattern that was shaping up towards the start of the second week of March! This from the NWS: "Amplified upper-level flow returns for Tuesday and Wednesday as the models hint at another robust shortwave trough digging across the Dessert Southwest, with its axis taking on a negative tilt as it aims toward the central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri Ozarks."

Update: March 8 - Bull Shoals water levels now below flood stage for River Run. And, it looked like no real heavy rains were in the immediate future!This from the NWS: At this time instability appears to be more limited across the area with the better thunderstorm potential looking to remain southwest of the area at this time.

Update: March 9 - I recorded a .81 inch rainfall that looked like it covered pretty much the entire Tri-Lake region. That much rain could pose a problem for rising lake levels.

Update: March 10 - After the region got a good dose of rainfall, Bull Shoals was still trending slightly downwards. Good news! However, as the current NWS forecast for the coming mid work week was: ' A cold front will sweep across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Lift will increase across the area resulting in widespread showers to develop across the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Three quarters to one and one quarter inches of rainfall is expected with this system. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible, but overall instability appears to be more lacking and not expecting any severe storms at this time. Northwest flow then sets up across the region late in the week and will result in below normal temperatures into next weekend.' So, another .75 to 1.25 inches of rainfall would keep things interesting. Stay tuned.

Saturday, March 2, 2019

March 2 2019 Snow event!

Taney County Mo. - It was a Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 and the NWS was calling for snow to fall across much of southwest Missouri. As in all such cases, a lot of guesswork was out there concerning precipitation forms (wet versus frozen), types (rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow) and overall amounts. The current thinking for Taney County Missouri was for about two inches of snow with the start late in the day as any rain or drizzle that existed would change over snow.

As per the 5:38 AM dialog, the NWS stated;  'The upper level trough (area of low pressure) will help deepen a surface low over west Texas later today before moving across the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight and Sunday. Moisture will be pulled up and over the system and interact with the cold air mass overspreading much of the central U.S.' This setup did portend that snow would fall, with exactly how much and of what forms still to be determined. (Unfortunately, that left evening commuters pretty much clueless). Following are 'updates' that I planned to make beginning later in the afternoon. These would be intended for the immediate area around Forsyth and would likely not be representative of the rest of Taney County! My updates will look something like this:

9:46 AM - Sky was overcast with no forms of precipitation. The apparent snow in the radar at right is 'virga' - precip that is not making it to the ground.

See? Easy peasey. I also intended to insert comments at any times where I saw or heard about any significant events happening. So, stay turned. The weather 'action' should begin much later today and overnight. This could be a pretty late event, but I planned to be vigilant.

12:30 PM - The outdoor temps had shown a trend downwards (.17° per hour). Winds were also veering towards the north. Nothing really that major. And, as it turned out everything more or less stabilized after the 1PM hour.

1:40 PM - At this hour, the freezing line was still off to the northwest. I was making a guess that it would be after 6PM before it made its way into the Taney County area. Also, I noted the light and variable nature of the winds.

5:00 PM - Latest forecast from the Weather Service is zeroing in on a 3AM to 9AM period when snow might impact area traffic in and around Taney County.I'll set my alarm clock for an early start Sunday!

10:30 PM - The radar was showing echos from the west. Snow, virga or what? Going to sleep and will try and awake at about 3AM. Late night folks can track the event at!

5:10 AM - Pretty much a blown forecast, that is, if we don't get some snow off the back side of the system which was making fast tracks off to the east. I did note a bit of ice on an exposed railing. There were also some indications of a band of snow approaching from the west.

5:45 AM - If that snow that is indicated on the left and which is approaching fairly quickly is the real thing, I'm thinking it will hit just in time for the morning rush for church!

6:20 AM - Observed snow falling. I did not feel that the event was going to last very long, however.

In the graphic, at left, you can see that the snow band was fairly thin. For a live link to the 76 Strip in Branson click here.

So, that pretty much is a wrap for this winter season as we will be warming up by mid week. The next stormy weather was shaping up to hit late in the work week and should be i n the form of some rain and thunder.

Monday, February 25, 2019

Bull Shoals water levels may hold steady!

River Run Park in trouble!
Forsyth MO. - As a local who likes to enjoy two parks that grace the area, I had taken a keen interest in tracking the current rapid rise of waters in the the Bull Shoals Lake. As of this post, one of the two parks, River Run had begun to flood out. However, Shadowrock was still high and dry. At least for now.
Minor drop in level observed on Feb 25
 What was encouraging to me was fact that the rate of increase had slowed quite a bit. even to the point where I could hope to see it decline a bit in the later part of February. The flies in the ointment here were two; water levels at Beaver Lake continued to be about two feet above full pool and release rates at the Bull Shoals dam near the Arkansas border were still being restricted due to the time of year. And, as spring was still a few weeks off, I found that troubling.

The good news was that, while rain would likely occur over the next ten days, it also appeared to be on the light side of things! So, if we don't get much rain and if Bull Shoals dam does increase their releases and so on and so forth.... at least one of the parks might be spared from flooding.

Note: My estimates of when a park might flood out are just that, estimates.

Update: Army Corps of Engineers to Open Two Gates at Table Rock Dam on Tuesday, March 5, 2019. They needed to perform maintenance on two turbines - I was not sure if this would affect Bull Shoals.

Will early March Wx see improvements? Probably not!

So, while we all enjoy a mini-dry spell for a day or two, there exists more chances for rain along about mid week. Confidence was increasing in seeing shortwave energy sweeping through Tuesday night thru Thursday. It is anticipated this will bring chances for light rain across the region throughout the day on Wednesday. However, with the intrusion of colder air late Wednesday night into Thursday, the concern becomes the possibility of seeing mixed wintry precipitation, (most of which is likely to fall north of the I-44 corridor). Otherwise light rain all around. meh

Then, as we edge on out of February and into the first weekend of March 2019, another frontal system will take aim at the region by Friday (March 1) as a warm front lifts north across the region.

While the models continue to vary on solutions, it does appear there is a potential for some instability getting into Missouri and will be something to keep an eye on. This system is quickly overcome by a much stronger intrusion of high pressure and colder temperatures. Highs next Saturday through early next week look to only top out in the 30s with lows in the teens/lower 20s across the region. Current models suggest a few chances of seeing light snow to go along with the below average temperatures next weekend. Double meh

Friday, February 22, 2019

Past four years of rain in Forsyth MO!

Forsyth MO - Just for fun, I thought to post the last four years of rainfall as recording in the Forsyth Missouri area. The readings were obtained from a Davis Weather Monitor III rain gauge. I'll try and update this on a monthly basis as we move into 2019! Click on graphic to enlarge.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Asking why?

Forsyth MO. - As of this post on Feb 20, 2019, one of two small Parks was in the very early stage of flooding out. River Run used to be a fun place for many area citizens to visit, RV camp or fish from, but that has not been the case very often as of late. Now, it would appear to be heading for Davy Jones locker as water was making an incursion on its northwestern border. My question is why?

The graphic at right show the record of lake water levels for the last few floods. In 2018, while there was only minor flooding, it didn't matter as the Park was shut down due to bridge construction. But, in 2015 and 2017, both River Run and Shadowrock were under many feet of water. And, yes, I realize that those two areas are considered flood plains. That said, it still brings into question how well water management was being conducted by the Corps of Engineers? This offshoot branch of the Army is basically responsible for what happen to three reservoirs; Beaver Lake, Table Rock Lake and Bull Shoals. Sandwiched between the last two is Taneycomo Lake, a narrow body of water bordered by Table Rock dam one end and Powersite dam on the other. And that area is also considered a flood plain and includes the Landing in Branson! Taneycomo's water level has to be kept within relatively narrow limits as housing and commercial interests have been built close to the waters edge. In some cases these dwellings are only a few feet above the normal water level and that's a problem for everyone whenever the region gets decent rains!

On the left is a stylized graphic of the three main reservoirs with Taneycomo sandwiched in. When combined, they represent a tremendous body of water that has to empty into the White River just down stream of the Bull Shoals dam. And that thar is the problem. In most every season, the White River cannot take in a boatload of discharge, especially during the winter months! so, when we've even only had an average amount of rainfall, the levels Beaver get pretty far up that - currently at 1122 feet and some change. After a heavy spring rain, the White river become the choke point while Bull Shoals is permitted to completely flood so as to spare folks living near Table Rock and Taneycomo.

So, what the solution? Is there even a solution? Probably not - The best case scenario would be a prolonged drought, next would be a major re-construction of the White River. One would hurt agriculture and the other would break the bank. So, for now, I'll have to be content to stand by and watch the parks flood.

Monday, February 18, 2019

What the heck is a warm nose?

Note the red line at the btm as it moves from close to zero Celsius to warmer temps and then back to freezing with height!
In weather terms, a 'warm nose', in the winter time, is a layer of air at about 850 millibars or 5000 feet that is warmer than either the freezing air above or below it. It can cause problems associated with any precipitation that might fall through it resulting, for example in snow reaching that level and then melting only to begin to refreeze as it get closer to the ground. The result, generally, is some form of sleet, but can become freezing rain if other conditions permit. So when a weather forecaster is talking about a warm nose of air moving into colder air, he or she is tacitly warning the viewer about possible forms of precipitation that would be different from rain or snow, i.e. some form of ice.

Will Forsyth MO area Parks flood in 2019?

Forsyth MO. - I was very much looking forward to a few new features in my small town of Forsyth Missouri in southwest Missouri this coming spring. A new bridge over Bull Shoals, a new roundabout and two parks that all looked to be in great shape!

But wait! There might be a fly in the ointment and that was the potential for both River Run and Shadowrock Parks to be flooded out early in the coming 2019 season! How could this happen, you ask?
Click to expand
Well, my fears grew somewhat when I realized that the water levels in Bull Shoals as well as the other two reservoirs (Beaver and Table Rock Lakes) upstream of it were much higher than they normally were (see graphic above). And with the spring season not even here, I noted that River Run was already becoming invaded on its northwestern shore! I just could not see how the Corps of engineers were going to manage their way out of flooding problems even if we have a typical amount of rain in March and April. (Perhaps they were hoping for a mini drought to occur....).

Graphic 2
As I considered the situation, and the fact that our rainfall had not been all that excessive over past six months (graphic 2), I turned my focus on the Bull Shoals dam down by the Arkansas border. I had to guess that they were simply unable to release as much water as they normally would possibly due to the time of year, when water absorbing foliage was not present. (Either that was the case or there were other issues occurring somewhere between that point and the gulf that I was unaware of...).

Whatever, the answer to the flooding question was going to resolve itself over the next couple of months, of that I was certain, I was just hoping for a chance to get in some 'Park' time early in the spring before anything of a wet nature happened.

Update: Feb 20, 2019 - River Run Park. The flooding of part of this park had begun!

Update: Feb 24 - With just a few days to go in the month, it was looking as though the River Run Park area would be flooded out! And, it wasn't even the start of the spring season! We'd really need a serious dry spell for, say, the first few weeks of March to get the levels back down.

Monday, February 11, 2019

Worst case scenario for Table Rock Dam!

The worst-case scenario of a catastrophic floodwater discharge from Table Rock Lake using the auxiliary floodgates would roughly resemble this: 

Water Level at 931 Feet:  Table Rock Lake is at full flood capacity. The ten Tainter gates are opened to accommodate additional lake inflow from the White River Basin including the James River and Beaver Lake discharge.

Water Level at 937 feet: Table Rock Lake is now 6 feet above flood capacity. The ten Tainter gates are opened wider in an effort to stabilize reservoir rise. Outflow from the Lake under these circumstances will be nearing 200-300 thousand cubic feet per second (CFS).

Water Level at 942 feet: Table Rock Lake is 11 feet above flood capacity and at its "design pool", or the maximum elevation that the reservoir is engineered to reach, under "probable maximum flood" scenarios. The dam’s ten Tainter gates will be fully raised to their maximum height of approximately 30 feet letting loose 550 thousand CFS into Lake Taneycomo. This scenario would effectively submerge and destroy the powerhouse, power transmission grid, hatchery, and wreak serious destruction down stream. An illustration of how Table Rock’s ten spillways might appear under these circumstances mimics this: the floodgates will extend up and out from the structure, like eyebrows, shadowing the concrete spillways!

Water Level at 947 feet: Table Rock Dam would be at its maximum capacity and water would be at the very top of the dam. The auxiliary spillway would be brought online, in concert with Table Rock’s fully opened floodgates. This catastrophic or "last resort" protocol releases 1 million CFS of lake waters into Taneycomo and deals dreadful destruction to Branson, Hollister, Point Lookout and possibly the Powersite Dam. At this point there is a danger of water overtopping the concrete dam and breaching the earthen structure, which imminently leads to cataclysmic structural failure and the uncontrolled release of the Table Rock Lake impoundment—nearly 3 million CFS of water.

Historically, Table Rock Lake has experienced a record crest of 935.47 feet, which occurred on April 27, 2011.

In December 2015, the dam released 72,000 CFS at its peak. This is the highest amount ever released! [Information source:]

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Potential for flooding in 2019 at Bull Shoals!

Forsyth MO. - Some mid February 2019 observations concerning the chances for seeing Bull Shoals flood once again. I got interested in watching the rainfall rates very early in the season as we were still in the middle of winter.  Above is a graphic that shows the current water level of the Bull Shoals Lake in feet above mean sea level. The other two historical lines concerned the levels in 2015 and 1017 -  two years that witnessed flooding levels that also meant that both the Shadowrock and River Run Parks remained closed for the summer and fall seasons. Last year, River Run was closed due to the construction of a new bridge, but many local folks and vacationers were hoping for a chance to enjoy both parks if they could remain high and dry!

I planned to follow up on this post from time to time, especially as we got more into the meat of the spring season. I noted that back in 2015, the level started going up in early March while the 2017 season had a later start. When and if the water rises above 670 some flooding of River Run would occur. Shadowrock, being at a slightly heavier elevation would then flood once the water rose over the 675 foot mark. That’s as best I can remember at any rate.

Feb 11, 2019 - A good bit of rain fell overnight and also looked to continue for much of Monday as a system slowly made its way off to the east. Beginning Tuesday, Feb 12, I plan to post the water levels at the two main reservoirs that are upstream of Bull Shoals. Below is a graphic of the levels on Feb 11. So, stay turned.

[All three of the lakes were at or above full power pools. Beaver was.33 feet above, Table Rock was .61 feet above and Bull Shoals was 1.91' above.]

Feb 12, 2019