Thursday, November 29, 2018

Storms and a cold front beginning Nov 30!

So, here's the latest word concerning an approaching storm system that will bring showers and isolated severe thunderstorms into the Taney County area Friday night (Nov 30) and into Saturday (Dec 1). At this time some areas may receive strong winds and damaging hail! (Still a bit too early to tell exactly what form of severity they might take).

The system is forecast to move through the Ozarks rather quickly exiting to the north and east of much of the region by Saturday afternoon. See the national radar loop by clicking here.

A return of cold air will occur behind the system as a cold front swings through the region as the system departs. By Sunday night into Monday morning, a batch of precipitation will move across the
area. With colder temperatures it will likely fall as snow Sunday night and change to rain or a mix during the day Monday before changing back to snow as the system exits the region Monday evening. No snow accumulations are expected at this time as snow amounts will be light.

The cold air will remain in place through most of next week with highs in the 30s each day. A slight warm up will occur by Thursday with highs in the lower 40s, but another potent storm system is on the horizon for the end of next week.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Winter 2018-19: My weather predictions!

Forsyth MO. - It's November the 28th and the overnight temperatures had dipped to around 25°F! And that sort of abnormally cold weather had been pretty much the norm since after the first week of the month! In looking at a chart that showed the last prior four average temperatures for November 2014-2017, I could see that this year was a significant departure from the normal average of 46 degrees! As a matter of fact, there were some days that seemed closer to what we'd get on a typical January! So, what does that mean?

 In all probability, it doesn't mean all that much when taken by itself. And yet, the Central northern states had already experienced its first true blizzard of he season, and it's not even going to be 'winter' until December the 21st!  The picture taken below was in the city of Chicago, a location that was hit with over eight inches!

As a matter of fact, much of the northern tier of states have seen some significant snowfalls with temps this morning in the teens over much of that region. (Historically, when you see an early snow pack, the winter in Missouri can be more severe as any cold fronts that slide down over the snow covered ground will not gain as much heat as that air might normally gain). That's not always the case, so we need to watch to see if the trend for colder than normal temps will continue. That said, the temperature forecasts for the for the first week if that month are not very encouraging!

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Ten day temp averages for late November and early Dec!

Forsyth Mo. - Looking at the average temps may seem a bit strange as most of us want to see what the daily high and lows will be. I like to think in terms of the average temp for the day as an indicator of where we are in terms of 'normal' historical temps. Historical, in this case, being the 30 year average for whatever month we find ourselves in. For any given November, that temperature in southwest Missouri would be about 46 degrees. (That translates to something like a hi and low of 57°F and 35°F).  That said, the chart for the last of November and the first part of December shows a continued trend of below normal temps. Tuesday, December 4, is looking particularly cold.

Looking back at the last five Novembers! Why this one was strange!

So, November has turned out to be the oddball in the mix of the last five Novembers in Forsyth MO! I came to that conclusion after taking the averages of each average day from 2014 to 2017 and then plotting that against 2018.

Even a casual glance shows a rather large deviation (-4 below average) of the daily average temperatures for this year. Why is that even significant. Well for one thing, it could an indicator of a change in the types of winter we've all grown used to... or not. What was for sure, as of November 26, was that while temps had stayed right at about normal for a long stretch of time, that something had changed. Now, whether that change really means anything is the fly in the weather ointment? Still, it'll be interesting to see what happens in December!

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Another Sunday and another cold front?

Forsyth MO. - A dry slot will spread into much of the area today, besides the far northern portions of the forecast area. This dry slot will result in the lose of cloud and result in more of the way of drizzle developing mainly south of Highway 54. With temperatures falling through the day, a brief period of freezing drizzle will be possible and could result in a glazing of icing on elevated surfaces this afternoon into this evening mainly north of Highway 60. With temperatures currently quite warm early this morning, ground temperatures will also start off on the warm side. The onset of any wintry precipitation should generally melt, with any accumulations associated with bands of heavier snow. As temperatures fall into the 20s on gusty northwesterly winds later today, ground temperatures will fall this afternoon and evening and could result in wet roads freezing in spots and snow starting to accumulate, mainly along and north of Highway 54 where more snow is expected. The gusty winds will also reduce visibilities within any snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued generally along and north of Highway 54 where more snow is expected

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Storm system on Sunday to usher in below normal temps!

 Well, it is getting to be late in the fall season with December lurking just around the corner. So bundle up buttercups...

Forecast: A rather active upper level pattern brings us yet another seasonable mild day for Saturday before another digging trough over the plains brings the next system into the Ozarks Sunday. Models have begun to find agreement on the track of the system with the low center tracking generally along and north of the I-70 corridor across northern Missouri. This will keep the bulk of the precipitation and any potential for accumulating snow on the back side of the system confined to the northern most parts of the Ozarks across central Missouri.

The primary impact with this system may become the very windy conditions expected as a tight surface gradient develops. Winds will likely gust from 30 to 40 mph at times during the day Sunday.

 Behind the system Sunday, temperatures once again drop with lows Monday morning in the 20's.

The remainder of the week, while dry, will remain on the below normal side of the temperature scale for this time of the year with highs some 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the 30's and 40's through the remainder of the week. Overnight lows will also be about 10 degrees below normal.

I noted that some weather forecasters were painting a more snowy pattern for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Should such an event occur, the snow pack would all but insure colder temps as we moved into December.

Saturday, November 17, 2018

First half of Nov 2018 five degrees below normal!

Forsyth MO. - I watched with a little bit of concern, the manner in which the temperatures sort of fell off the cliff over the first fifteen days in November! After experiencing a few past years that saw very warm temps, as high as seven degrees ABOVE the normal average, I had concluded that the Global Warming bull shit might have something going for it. But, no! the mercury began the month in fine fashion and then dropped like a brick! (I even saw a few days that were more reminiscent of late December)!

That all said, we seemed to be heading back to near normal conditions for the second half of the month!

Monday, November 5, 2018

Average temperatures drop in first half of November 2018!

After experience a very typical October, here in southwest Missouri, the temperatures had taken a definite downwards curve in the first half of November 2018!

Thursday, November 1, 2018

November 2018. Some initial thoughts!

After a pretty typical October month had come and gone, November entered in rainy and cold fashion with temps barely hitting the 50 degree mark for a high. Thus, as we enter into mid fall, I was left wondering how the coming winter (starting on Fri, Dec 21) was going to go...