Thursday, March 30, 2017

Taney County work week 1 for April!

Remember those rainy and icky days when you were a kid, sitting bored to death in class and looking out the rain streaked classroom windows? Well, Monday will not be a lot like that. Just cloudy and sort of icky! So, buck up buttercups! Look for high temps in the 60's.

NWS: A steady drizzle in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High 62F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch. Swell...

The next storm system to affect the area begins to develop across the central and southern Plains region on Tuesday. A very vigorous and dynamic upper level wave will move out of the Southern Rockies. Significant surface cyclogenesis (nastiness) will develop across the Texas Panhandle region through the south central Plains on Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move northeastward towards the Missouri Ozarks by Tuesday night.

Steep lapse rates, very strong wind shear, and strong mid and upper level forcing will contribute to storm development Tuesday night into early on Wednesday for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The quality of low level moisture will be limited, but a few strong to severe storms appear to be possible with large hail the main threat. Will need to monitor future computer model guidance and trends during this time frame. It will also be very windy with this system Tuesday night through Wednesday. Wind gusts could approach 40 mph.

A large upper level trough digs and develops across the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday with us in northern flow. It will be chilly with highs in the 50's and overnight lows in the middle and upper 30's possibly.

A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into this weekend as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and surface high pressure moves off to the east. Southerly wind and sunshine will push temps back to pleasant spring time levels. Highs by Saturday will be back in the 70s. [Finally]

Meanwhile an upper level trough will make its way across the west and bring a front into the Plains on Sunday. Moisture levels will be on the increase Sunday ahead of this system and isolated to scattered convection could develop as early as Sunday afternoon. However a better chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday night and Monday as the system moves east.

The front will push to the east by Tuesday leaving behind dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle of next week. 

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Dicy weather could be in store for Taney County!

Well, we are in the spring time and Mother Nature does like to shake things up a bit!

This from the NWS: A strong closed low will move across the Red River Valley and slowly lift northeast into southwestern Missouri and Southeastern Kansas through today and into tonight. As the low makes its way across Oklahoma a warm front will lift north across the region placing the Ozarks in the warm sector by late this afternoon into tonight. A rather strong low level jet on the order of 50 knots per hour will be in place. This will enhance the shear profile over the Ozarks region on the order of 60-75kts of shear. Cape values this evening will be on the order of 1500 to 1800 J/kg with low level Cape values in the lowest 1 to 3 Km from 90 to 120 J/kg.

My personal take on that forecast – 'The atmosphere will be charged up – like a vehicle's engine cylinders that are full of a gas and air mix, just waiting for a spark to set things in motion!' Also, please note that the definition of 'CAPE' is 'Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.'

Update: This from the NWS - 1:20 PM: 'No major changes to the overall forecast message this afternoon and tonight, with strong/severe thunderstorms still expected to affect a large portion of the area. Large hail, straight line winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.'

Me: To my uneducated mind, I'm starting to see a fizzle here... I'm thinking the action was moving more north.. At the 6PM hour winds were calm..

7:00 PM - So, sometimes the weather service fucks up! They be human and all...  I'll call this a dry slot. And, like a man who takes a penis stimulus to no good effect, this day was rather limp... remembering that this source is very much an idjit! Picture at 8PM looking west!

Summery: To use an earlier analogy - while all the players were present in that engine cylinder, no 'spark' was ever delivered and so the 'party' was a dud! Well, we could have used the rain...

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Taney County work week #4!


Computer model output has been consistent with more storm system movements across the region during the upcoming work week, so will keep precipitation chances going pretty much as they have been for the past few days. Late Sunday into Monday, on open upper wave and surface trough will move across the region. Dynamics and instability look pretty meager so don't think we'll see much in the way of severe storms.


Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop or move into the area after 7PM and will be most likely during the 11PM to 6AM period. Agree with the SPC assessment of a marginal risk of severe storms
with wind and hail being the primary threat.

Highs will range from around 60 in the Lake of the Ozarks region to near 70 in extreme southwest Missouri closer to the warm front.


Rain should begin to taper off during the day on Monday with the system exiting the area Monday evening. The area remains in a progressive pattern with systems coming through every 2-3 days through the remainder of the period.

The upper low and surface low will move slowly to the east through the day Wednesday and through Thursday. The dynamics of this system will bring the potential for strong to severe storms through the day Wednesday. The combination of ample moisture, a rather strong low level jet and upper level jet support will make all modes of severe weather possible. The storm prediction center has already placed the Ozarks under a slight risk, though if the models continue the trends of the past few runs, we may see an upgrade. Will keep an eye on the latest trends.


For severe weather potential, please click here.

Models also bring a good amount of precipitation to the region with the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall area wide through the day Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. This, on top of the rain over the past few days, may produce some flooding concerns.

Ridging will be ongoing Friday morning through Saturday allowing the region so see a return of sunshine and temperatures climbing through the 50's and 60's on Friday and into the 70's on Saturday.
This will occur as winds shift out of the south.


Another system is then anticipated to begin to impact the region Saturday night and through Sunday with more rain and temperatures in the 60s during the day as we head into the start of next week.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Mediacom. The weather nanny!

Whenever storms threaten my area in SW Mo, even storm off to the north about sixty miles away, Mediacom is right on the job! They broadcast warnings across all their channels so that the populace is warned of impending disaster...

I would like to make the suggestion that in the future, Mediacom should increase the coverage of these warning in terms of geographical and temporal parameters. So, the next time a storm comes within a hundred miles of any location, let's have them go to continuous coverage so that even the slower among up are properly informed. After all, it is apparently policy that Mediacom takes care of all its subscribers... whether they want the help or not.

In days past, there was a short warning flashed on the scree asking those with an interest to tuned to a certain channel. That seemed to work pretty well, too. But, evidently, someone in management decided that wasn't enough of an interruption an so has gone back to incessant breaks in the broadcasting to make sure we are not only warned but irritated to a sufficient level to boot! Thanks, Mediacom for everything!

Monday, March 20, 2017

Taney County Wx - Week 3!


By late this afternoon, a cold front will begin to make its way towards central Missouri. At this time, it appears that convergence along this front will not be enough to overcome what should be a fairly stout capping inversion.

Prospects for convection may then increase tonight as that front settles towards southern Missouri. Models are hinting that isentropic upglide may initiate elevated convection along or north of the U.S. 60 corridor. Many of the convection-allowing models (CAMs) seem to be focusing more on a corridor from Truman Lake towards Lebanon and Houston. This makes sense if parcels are lifted more from the 850-800 mb layer later tonight.


However, a few models indicate slightly earlier initiation (this evening). If this were to occur, this would be closer to the surface front in the vicinity of the U.S. 60 corridor. With that being said, we have placed a swath of 20-40% PoPs over most of the area with the exception of far southwestern Missouri. The "highest" PoPs are in the Warsaw to Ft. Leonard Wood to Salem line as the slightly more elevated convective scenario is favored. The forecast for Tuesday then has some bust potential as that front continues to slowly move south across southern Missouri. Temperatures south of that front may easily reach the middle to upper 70s. In contrast, highs north of the front may not reach the 60 degree mark. Temperatures will likely fall in the afternoon where the front has not already passed. There will also be plenty of clouds around along with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Tuesday night.


That front will then briefly stall south of the region on Wednesday before beginning to return north again as a warm front Wednesday night and Thursday. We could see another shot at a few showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the returning front. After a cool Wednesday, warmer temperatures will return again for Thursday.

Medium range models then continue to depict a vigorous storm system impacting the region from later Friday into Saturday. If the general structure of this system (deep trough with closed low) materializes, the prospects look very good for widespread rainfall throughout the Ozarks. We will also maintain a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Friday given the large scale setup.


Storm chances and winds have been the focus in the short term forecast. First, along with our neighboring offices to the southwest and west, we will be issuing a wind advisory for this morning as strong low level jet winds mix down to the surface. Will need to have later shifts assess whether or not an extension is needed, but the latest forecast trends back off wind speeds for Friday afternoon.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Taney County work week #2 for March 2017!


My early take would be to just go ahead and write week #2 off as a casualty of winter as yet another cold air mass will move over the region behind the front on Monday. This will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40's and allow overnight lows to fall into the middle 20's Tuesday morning and the lower 20's and upper teens Wednesday morning. Will likely need Freeze Warnings for these mornings due to the early blooming fruit tree that are not affected by this weekends freeze.


A clipper type system will move over the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night before a warming trend finally allows temperatures to climb into the 50's and 60's by the end of next week and into the weekend with showers and storms possible Friday and Friday night.


Gusty south winds are expected with a continued warming trend as the remnants of the unseasonably chilly/dry air mass shift off to the east. Still, the eastern cwfa will see high temperatures somewhat below normal with highs in the upper 40's to near 50, while our western cwfa could be in the mid 60's. Cloud cover with low level moisture advection is expected to interfere with the diurnal temperature rise, particularly over our eastern counties. Couldn't rule out some drizzle, but am not putting that in the forecast for now.


A shortwave moving into/through the Midwest will support a trailing cold frontal passage through our area. Low level moisture will continue to advect northward with surface dew points reaching the mid/upper 50's Fri. Warm air aloft/capping just below 700mb limits overall instability, so  it looks like there will be a good chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms over the far southern MO late Fri and Fri night.


Friday, March 3, 2017

The first work week of March 2017 for Taney County!


Not unlike the severe weather event last week, there will be two distinct opportunities for severe weather this evening/tonight. The first will be with any discrete super cells that are able to form ahead of the frontal boundary during the early to mid evening hours. These would likely have the greatest severe weather potential should they form. The second wave of severe weather will be with the front itself, with initial super cells (likely just north and west of the county wide area) congealing into a linear complex/QLCS as the front advances to the southeast. Straight line winds, large hail, and brief meso-vortex tornadoes will all be possible with this line. Having said that, this front will likely be quick mover and should clear our region by midday Tuesday. Thereafter, dry conditions can be anticipated as a dry northwesterly flow aloft sets up over the region. Has anyone fallen asleep yet?


And yes, about that northwesterly flow of air. That will mean a somewhat cooler air mass will again filter into the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday (but, nothing abnormally cool). This cool down looks to be short lived as the surface high swiftly pushes east of our region by Thursday. Wait for it! As heights begin to gradually rise and a return flow sets up, a wonderful warming trend appears likely for the end of next week. I've got my shorts and suntan lotion already laid out!


The timing for potential severe weather on Thursday will be from mid to late afternoon into the early evening, with large hail the primary risk and a secondary thunderstorm wind risk.

Drier air should quickly move in behind the front with little to no precipitation occurring after 9 PM CST. Clearing should take place overnight with lows dipping back down into the 30's for most locations.


Computer models indicate bands of robust precipitation and QPF develop late Saturday morning into the afternoon across much of the area. The northeastern two thirds of the area will likely see snow with a rain and snow mix across the southwestern one third of the area or basically from a Pittsburg Kansas to Branson line southward. Short term model guidance and forecast soundings suggest that the snow bands produce occasional moderate to locally heavy burst of snow at times across the Missouri Ozarks during Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will likely be hovering around freezing or slight above. With recent warm weather and ground temperatures as well as a high March sun angle, it will be very hard for snow to stick to roads. Most accumulation will be confined to grassy areas and elevated objects. One to two inches will be possible under heavier snow bursts. At this time, we do not think travel will be impacted.