Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Saturday, May 18 could see severe weather!

Forsyth MO. - This from the NWS:

[On Saturday, surface backed winds ahead of a northeast lifting low will yield adequate directional shear ahead of the cold front. In addition, a favorable Gulf fetch will maintain a moisture- laden
air mass with dew points in the mid 60's.

All of these ingredients may lead to the development of discrete super cells across southwest Missouri Saturday evening into Sunday, with all modes of severe weather possible.

While it is easy to get excited and lost in the model data, it is important to note that America's RAOB network will not begin sampling this potential storm for another 36-48 hours. Thus, be cautious not to over-hype yet.

Monday and Tuesday also look active with severe weather possible, but the models will undoubtedly change between now and then...]


In general, broad scale or regional weather pattern setups do not often veer to far from the average as seen by the computer models. That said, I do plan to really focus my attention to the grids that will present themselves on Friday, May the  17th. I plan to then do a followup forecast...

 Update: May 16 - 'The convection which develops over western and central KS on Friday is expected to shift eastward and possibly into the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday morning. If this occurs, the severe risk for Saturday could be conditional on just how much clearing can take place along with the resulting instability that might develop during the day for redevelopment of new storms. Note, however, that shear looks to be sufficient as the upper low begins to pivot northeast over KS during the daytime Saturday. Very moist air will be across the area and convection will likely cause intense rainfall at the very least. This initial upper level wave should move east of the area by Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will begin to push into northern CA on Sunday morning and into the Rockies Sunday night into Monday. Strong to severe convection will again be possible
across the central and southern plains Monday into Tuesday, more likely Monday night into Tuesday across the CWA. Combined, these two systems are expected to bring around 2 to 5 inches of rain
across the area through next Tuesday, which will probably bring about some more flooding to the region.'

Also, see this article.... Apparently some others also feel this could be a big deal!

May 17 - 'Saturday (May 18) looks very active as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region. Severe thunderstorms are likely, while chances for excessive rainfall are increasing as well. Precipitable water values will run around 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal in an area with large scale ascent for several hours over the four state area.'

That was the latest from the NWS and the way I took it was to assumes that all forms of nastiness were still on the table.

May 18 - 'We will not be issuing a flood watch, since trying to pinpoint any areas that will receive excessive rain is proving to be difficult at this time. Therefore we utilized a super blend approach in populating the rainfall forecasts. However, I will say there are multiple models picking up on high rainfall rates, suggesting that localized amounts of over 3 inches will be possible through tonight.

There will also be a risk for severe weather, with all modes possible. Utilizing a RAP environment/HRRR convective prog statistical approach in forecasting short term severe weather, we
could receive a very busy episode of severe storms this afternoon. The longer the storms take to arrive, the more unstable the atmosphere will get, which will create a more volatile environment.' [Some wording paraphrased].

10:00 AM - Tornado Watch #182 issued for Taney County!

Aftermath: The storm front hit hard and fast at about 4:30 PM. Some area damage resulted along with power outages at my location as well as areas along Highway Y in Forsyth MO. Sadly, my anemometer was knocked out which forced me to order a replacement. Total rain at my station was .54 inches.

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