Thursday, July 28, 2016

Taney County Mo weather for the August 1 work week!

If you really enjoyed that hot work week of July 18-23, well it's coming back for an encore!

Yes sir, that pesky old summertime area of high pressure that was camped out in the southwest moves back overhead on about August the 1st! Computer models suggest 850mb level one mile up) temperatures in the low to middle 20's Celsius (around 77°F), which will likely correspond to highs on the ground in the low to middle 90's again for much of the week. Isn't that swell? With abundant low level moisture present, heat index values will also likely climb over 100! Why that's even sweller!

This scenario will also aid in decreasing precipitation chances. Read that as like a big zero in the rain department!

So, to recap; it will be very muggy, really hot and there will be little chances for an even temporary cool down due to a passing shower. (Sounds a little like Death Valley, only with more moisture)!

Update: July 4  - As we get past the middle of the work week, the temps will begin to moderate a bit with increasing chances for thunderstorms as a fronts slides on in from the north!

Update: July 5 - Friday -  'A large flat ridge remains firmly ensconced over the southern tier of states early this morning with a series of weak impulses moving along within the flow. At the surface...a cold front extends from Northwestern Illinois through Northwestern Missouri to a low over South Central Kansas. These two features are working to set off complexes of thunderstorms around the periphery of the upper level ridge. Some of these showers may make it into the northwestern portions of the CWA early this morning.' So, perhaps some relief is on the way! []

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Taney County weather for work week starting July 25!

If you happen to be the type of person that thrives in the heat, you've likely been really enjoying the last seven days down here in southwest Missouri. For the rest of us, it's been a real battle just to stay cool! So, what's on tap for the coming work week, beginning on Monday, July 25?

The good news is that there will be a cold front heading towards us from up north. The bad news it that it will have a tough time making it down to the Missouri – Arkansas border. But, have heart. As the front sags its way into our area on Monday or Tuesday, we could well see some welcome thunderstorm activity along with a brief respite from the hellish temperatures. Just how much relief will depend on how far that old girl sags southwards....

Friday, July22 - If you look carefully on my webpage national map - you'll see that the center of rotation is moving off the the southwest. That would be a good thing!

There's got to be a Sunday after.....The upper ridge will begin to retrograde a bit on Sunday, which should allow for a greater concentration of afternoon thunderstorms along/south of I-44. Temperatures will be ever so slightly cooler across this area, with readings in the low to mid 90s. But, slightly higher dew points will again result in heat indices between 103 and 105. Temperatures north of the Interstate will again reach the mid to upper 90s.

By early Monday morning, the upper ridge looks to recenter over the southern High Plains, resulting in weak/disorganized zonal to northwest flow across the forecast area. A series of shortwaves moving across the I-80 corridor will push a synoptic front south into the northern part of Missouri, where it will stall for much of the coming work week. Nightly MCS (clustered storms) activity will probably result in some north to south oscillation to the front, as the boundary is modified by convective outflow and differential heating.

For the Ozarks, this should result in a steady diet of scattered thunderstorm activity for much of the week. Convective potential will likely be centered around 1. the remains of overnight convective complexes and/or 2. afternoon pulse thunderstorm activity. Widespread severe weather does not seem likely during this time period, though any given round of thunderstorms could bring with it a few marginally severe wind gusts, depending on mesoscale factors.

This increase in precipitation and associated cloud cover will help knock temperatures back to around climatological norms, which are around 90 degrees or so this time of year.

Long term guidance suggests a pretty steady state to the overall synoptic pattern through next weekend, with the upper ridge remaining centered over the southern High Plains and southern Rockies. []

Friday, July 15, 2016

Weather for work week starting Monday, July 18!

Forsyth MO. - Here we go entering the 3rd week of July, which is climatologically the hottest week of the year for the Missouri Ozarks.

It's great timing for a massive summertime high pressure system to build over the Nation's mid section starting tomorrow and continuing through the upcoming work week.

This summertime high will cause temperatures and heat indices to soar, likely bringing some Heat Advisories to the region through most of the week.

Global computer runs are wanting to keep our far east in northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure in full "ring of fire" fashion. The may open the door for additional MCS potential next week across our eastern locations and isolated afternoon/evening pulse-type cells elsewhere.

As of the middle of July, we were still over eight inches below the 30 year average and so could use some additional rainfall before the month is out. Interestingly, there is not much happening in the way of Hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Many experts were expecting the prevailing La Nina weather pattern to fuel a surplus of these storms for 2016. So far, nada.

 Saturday, July 16 - With some of the hottest weather on tap for the coming week, with heat indexes reaching 105 and more - And, right on cue, my AC decided to give up the ghost. Swell.

The long wave and synoptic scale pattern will feature a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the region for the entire work week period. While there is an outside shot at a thunderstorm across the eastern Ozarks Tuesday afternoon, we are mainly expecting dry conditions all week.

Tuesday, July 19 - Little if any relief in sight through the weekend. If anything it will get hotter with daytime highs approaching the 100 degree mark. 

[information excerpted for]

Saturday, July 9, 2016

Forecast for the weekend of July 9 and the following work week!

Due to the amount of moisture and instability present within the Ozarks air mass, there will be continuous rainfall chances over the next several days. However, this is somewhat misleading, as many locations may not experience rain at all through next week.

Upper level ridging will be in place, while a frontal zone that has been triggering our recent storms will shift to the north. Therefore, afternoon air mass storms may be our best bet for rainfall Sunday through Tuesday night.

MCS moved south to north
Of course there is a chance that an MCV, (or mesoscale cyclonic vortex) may approach and form a storm cluster, but there really isn`t much of a noticeable trigger until we get to the middle of next week. By then, another frontal system approaches from the north which will bring more of a widespread risk for thunderstorms. [The Forsyth area got a good shot of this kind of system on Sunday afternoon with six tenths of an inch of rain, hail and lots of lightening!]

Pea-sized hail

Rain chances will then continue to increase through the balance of the week and into the following weekend as the Ozarks looks to be positioned on the northeast periphery of a summertime high. This is an ideal location for thunderstorm development from approaching weak disturbances.

Friday and into early Saturday, at this time, looks to be a particularly wet period. Temperatures for both days would be held down due to clouds and rain with highs only topping out into the middle 80's across much of the area.

Wednesday, Jul 13 - A nocturnal low level jet will crank up again tonight, however nosing more into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A passing mid level impulse will also likely aid in the development of a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. If a MCS forms, it would likely track through the northeast half of the area with a threat for damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. Both the NAM and GFS show this occurring however placement issues exist. The NAM shows a strong MCS with a deep cold pool moving through most of the area overnight and this will bear watching for the damaging wind threat.

Ongoing storms are possible Friday morning with additional storm chances Friday afternoon and evening as additional weak impulses approach the area and interact with a moist and unstable air mass. And, while several rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through this week, it is unclear as to where each heavy round occurs. Some locations will likely end up with a couple inches of rainfall through this weeks end. Any flooding threat will likely be a mesoscale forecast challenge which means we don't have a clue.

Wednesday, July 14 - Hooray! On this date my area finally crossed over into positive territory in the rainfall department for the month. That makes July the first month where the actual rainfall exceeded the average!

In general, though, for temperatures to be seasonable with highs in the upper 80's and lower 90's on an afternoon basis. Beyond Saturday, July the 16th, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region bring mostly clear skies and hot weather. There will also be little chance for rain during that work week!  [] Note: Smattering; a small amount of something.

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Wow! July 2016 is shaping up to be somewhat wet!

As we've seen in the past two nights (Tues and Wed), a mesoscale convective system is expected to develop across the northern plains and move southeast and into Missouri overnight tonight. This system is then expected to begin to move into central Missouri around midnight and then progress southward through Friday morning. At this point, expectations tonight is for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and impact much of the Ozarks tonight through Friday morning. The primary hazard will be damaging straight line winds though hail to the size of quarters will also be possible with the stronger updrafts.

One thing that will aid as a focusing mechanism overnight, will be a cold front that will also begin to move towards the region. Computer models, at this point in time, do have some timing differences with the front with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. The EC moves the front through by late Friday morning with the GFS slower, finally moving the front just south of the Missouri/Arkansas state line late Friday night into Saturday morning. So, keep tuned to local weather media outlets just to be safe.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

My forecast for the winter of 2016-17!

My forecast will be two things; short and rather limited in scope for the coming winter season. Big changes are on the way, but we will not likely see anything happen for a few years yet.

SW Missouri – This winter can be summarized in just two words; warm and dry. For the more scientifically oriented, we will be in a positive La Nina weather pattern. In addition, the Arctic Oscillation will also favor a warmer than normal environment with the Central US experiencing less than normal rainfall.

The good side of this forecast will be lower heating bills for people who are strapped for cash, which is a lot of people. The bad side will be the lack of water which is what drives so much of our world. We'll just have to hunker down in that respect.

Of more concern to those living in southern California, living there will become more of a dire situation. Enough said on that.

The really interesting weather will not happen for a few years, but when it begins to take effect, the changes will be rather drastic....More on that in the next year or so.

Monday, July 4, 2016

Hot and muggy... again?

That's one way to cool off!
Just as the weekend of the Fourth of July was cool and wet (go figure), the rest of the work week will witness a return to hot and muggy conditions.

The National Weather Service is calling for a return to the 90's with high atmospheric levels of moisture helping to get us all hot and juicy when we dare to venture out... They even plan to issue heat advisories for both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, so if you are susceptible to heat stress, make sure to take some precautions.

And, while a few disturbances will track across the area Tuesday through Thursday, they will be moisture starved, so don't expect much in the way of rainfall. The best chance for rain will most likely occur on the coming weekend, but don't bank on it... []