Friday, April 26, 2019

Will River Run flood out - Part II?

May 2017 Powersite Dam
I paraphrased a National Weather Service forecast of potential doom that was published on April the 26, 2019 to read as follows:

A weather pattern change continues into early next week, setting the stage for a potentially very active week. Medium range computer models continue to advertise increasing low level moisture, southwest flow aloft and a meandering surface boundary near the Taney County area. This will likely result in periods of heavy rain along with the potential for several bouts of severe weather. However, details are still sketchy this far out, and certainly later forecasts need to be monitored as we head through the weekend.

With all three Tri-Lake reservoirs currently at, or above full pool levels, any episodes of heavy rainfall could result in the rapid flooding of parts of Lake Taneycomo (on a temporary basis) and all of Bull Shoals in the long term. Just how the scenario of storms will play out, the exact amounts and locations will greatly affect how severe flooding problems could become. 

It was my belief that the weather should begin to get interesting on or about Wednesday, May 1st. At right is a graphic showing water levels for all three reservoirs. I was guessing that part of the problem was with a restricted rate of flow at the Bull Shoals dam on the Arkansas border. This likely due to the Mississippi River setting record levels! And, since that problem isn't going to go away very soon, I felt that the survival of my two favorite parks; Shadowrock and River Run, would be entirely dependent on how much rain actually fell in the first week of May.

701.48 04-26-2019   12:45 CDT
So, only time will tell... At right Powersite Dam was releasing water on April 26, 2019.

Update: April 27 - The baroclinic zone then meanders near the area from Monday though Thursday as upper flow becomes more southwesterly. As has been previously mentioned, this set up is conducive to periodic showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain potential along with the potential for some strong to severe storms. The most impactful period looks to be Monday night through Tuesday night as a shortwave lifts out of the desert southwest and traverses the area. A corridor of precipitable water values of 1.50" to 1.75" feeding into the boundary with likely result in heavy rainfall.

At right is an animation of flood and high flow conditions for national rivers and streams. Note the condition of the mid parts of the Mississippi river system. That heavy load of flood waters will be making its way down to rivers that help drain the Tri-Lakes as we progress into early May. In my opinion, this could spell trouble for parts of southwest Missouri.

Update: Right on schedule, a massive system arrived on the last day of April to unload 2 to 3 inches of rain all across the region with more to come as we entered bravely into May. That will pretty much seal the fate of the two parks to a watery grave for 2019. Pics to come!

Friday, April 12, 2019

Heavy rains set for Saturday, April 13!

Forsyth MO. - An active weather pattern looked posed to invade the Midwest with heavy rainfall set to impact much of southern Missouri and all of Arkansas!

Precipatible water amounts of 1 to 2 inches looked to fall on the watershed that surrounds the Tri-Lake set of reservoirs which are comprised of Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals lakes. Fortunately, all three bodies of waters were at or below normal full pool levels. And before anyone asks is this had been a cold or warm start to spring, I can say that we are about 5.5 degrees abov ethe 30 year average!