Introduction

This blog is intended to be a series of posts that chronicle some weather events in and around the Forsyth Missouri area for the fall and winter period of 2011-12. Please feel free to check it out from time to time! (Ctrl D to bookmark).

“Who da man? Who DA MAN? Old man winter, he be da man!"

And, just maybe, he’s already on his way down to the North American Continent for an extended stay in 2011-12. That seems to be the consensus of some weather experts. While no one can predict exactly what Mother Nature has in store for us, the climatic trend seems to point to interesting times ahead… that is, if you like weather extremes. The following post details my expectations for the coming winter!

Below is information concerning average temperatures and rainfall for the Forsyth Mo. area by month:

(Please click on graphic below to expand)

Weather in the first half of February 2012 why I find it troubling!

In many respects, the winter of 2012 has been very unusual and maybe even a bit disturbing to me. With all the talk about climate change, it gets easy to read all kinds of nasty stuff into what may be normal variability.

The first half of February is a good case in point, especially when you also look at what happened a year ago. The graph below comprises data that I recorded at my location here in Forsyth, Missouri using a Davis Weather Monitor II. The blue line represents the average combined temperature of 38F recorded over the last 30 years. As you can see, there was a very big swing or departure from normal in the temperatures recorded in 2011 and a somewhat more moderate range recorded by me so far this year. 

Click to enlarge

Seeing extremes in the average for a day or even a group of days is not all that unusual. Seeing such large fluctuations (deviation from the norm) almost daily certainly raises some questions. And then, when you compare data from 2002 (graph below) for the same location and look at the ‘trends’ you can easily see that while back in 2002 the temperature was on average still cooling down, in 2012 it’s already on a fixed and definite warming trend! (The overall shift seems to be about 2 degrees Fahrenheit upwards).

Click to enlarge

What does this mean? Perhaps nothing, yet when you combine other data along with the realizations of what common sense dictates; something seems to be happening and seems to be happening relatively fast!

An Arctic Invasion – Feb 12 – Day 3

This 'un-retouched' graphic put out by the NWS caused some concern!

 As I arose this morning, feeling stiff and sore, I found myself somewhat pensive. Not for the first time, I felt I had had my fill of winter and was now prepared to tackle the bugs and heat of summer. I walked slowly over to my desk and sat down. A glance towards the display of my Davis Weather Monitor II confirmed the 'degree' to which my world had been assaulted over the nighttime hours. Only eleven degrees Fahrenheit at 7 AM! I groaned and contemplated crawling back into the comfort of my heated bed. No, there were things to do, places to go and people to see! And, at any rate, I was hungry! A thought that finally motivated me to move. I got up (the chair groaned with relief), and headed down the hallway in search of some sustenance.

See that big 'H' - it stands for Hell!

Cereal bowl now in hand, I returned from the kitchen to enjoy my breakfast at my desk. A quick twitch of the mouse and the large flat screen came to life. The first order of business was to bring up a weather map to see if the area of high pressure had move. Yup, there it was. And, yes the center seems to have drifted from west to east. According to the weather service, the area of high pressure is expected to exit stage right as the day progressed. As it did so, a new storm system is then supposed to meander in from the west. So, for the morning hours at least, things looked to be fairly tranquil. Cold, yes! But also tranquil! Ah, the calm before the storm, I thought as I spooned the generic equivalent of Corn Flakes into my mouth. My chair emitted a squeak in apparent agreement.

Later on in the morning, with breakfast now done, the bed made and the day stretching out before me. I briefly thought about going out for a walk, but then nixed the idea. It was too cold and the thought of wrestling around with a heavy winter coat was not very appealing. I elected, instead, to sit at my desk and jump around some of the weather related sites like the Weather Underground to see what the latest news on the storm situation was. Shortly, I came across this:

OK, which is it? One or two inches?

Hmm, I thought. This could get interesting! A whole inch huh! Of course I had to remind myself that, as of late, most of the forecasts for snow or ice never amounted to very much. In point of fact, the weather service had been right only once all winter so far as I was concerned! That was when they (correctly) called for a light dusting of snow way back in early December! And, like some dates I had in High School, it was pretty much over before it started. Still, I began to think....about my pantry...

The great food stampede begins!

And, the more I thought about it, the more I felt the urge to run to the store to 'stock up'. Mental images of a desolate and icy landscape formed in my mind and suddenly I felt the lemming like urge to 'shop til I dropped'! No matter that I had plenty of food and that I'd be shut in for perhaps just one day! I NEEDED TO GET OUT AND SPEND! And yes, I needed to be out among my own kind packed like a sardine in some crowded venue! Ahem. Two thoughts came to my mind as I hurried to my car; 1) people are easily panicked for no good reason, 2) shop owners must love bad weather and 3) microbes that cause flu and head colds, can really get a leg up when area stores suddenly become filled to capacity with stressed out guys and girls towing germy little kids in their wake!

Did thoughts like those deter me in the least? No. I ended up joining a great throng of humanity at that store. Everyone there stocking up for an imagined Armageddon on an otherwise sunny Sunday afternoon. Eighty dollars poorer and now sporting a runny nose, I returned home with a veritable cornucopia of food. At least, I reflected, I won't starve to death. (In retrospect, a rather funny thought if you were to take in the whole of my generous appearance).

By 3PM, I was once again firmly ensconced in my modest adobe and feeling rather poorly. A partly crumpled checklist lay on the table in front of me:

Go to grocery store – check

Fill the car with gas - check

Buy more crap than I could possibly use – check

Test run the generator (just in case) – check

Run back to town for gas for the generator – check

Spread anti-icing compound on the front porch – check

Take an antihistamine for my nose – double check

Outside things had warmed up very nicely. The temperature now read 38F and the sun was shining brightly. All this giving little warning as to what was about to transpire overnight. Or would anything transpire?

I resolved to try and go to bed early so as to help with my cold and to be able face whatever mess Monday would bring after getting a good night's sleep. Achoo!

In the next exciting episode, follow our intrepid blogger as he confronts 'The Mother of all Storms'!

An arctic invasion - Feb 10 - Day 1

Darkness settles in on a clear Feb evening! Wait! Up there in the corner! Is that Uranus?

'It seems to me that just about all winter long we've been spared harsh temperatures here in North America while the folks living in Europe have been getting it dished out to them big time! But, are we overdue for a change in the climate guard?' Well, time will tell...

The weather service is forecasting for two events over the next couple of days; a blast of honest to goodness arctic air from the North Pole and wintry precipitation, most likely in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Should make for an interesting time, if you're a weather nut like myself!

The Arctic Express!

From Canada to my doorstep in no time!

Right on cue, and in line with the National Weather Service forecast, we had an arctic front slam its way past my little southwestern Missouri town of Forsyth in the early afternoon hours of Friday, February the 10^th. (You can most always tell when a front has a pant-load of cold air by the speed at which it makes it from the Canadian border to my front porch)! Starting at 2:30 PM, I kept an 'ad-hoc  spreadsheet' which produced the graph seen below. The winds, which accompanied the front, picked up out of the north and were relatively constant from that point on until Saturday morning when they had calmed down just a bit. The average speed was about 5-7 mph with gusts to 13!

Wonder what caused the temps to briefly flat-line?

Shortly after six pm, the downward temperature spiral hit the freezing mark and then continued creeping on down. (Not sure why there was an hour long pause in the trend just prior, however). About this time, dusk was falling and the sky which had been overcast, cleared! (Not very good signs as they indicated some 'radiational cooling' might occur as a result). Sure enough, by 1AM we were flirting with 19°F. and the rate of temperature loss was at about 1° degree Fahrenheit per hour.

The next morning dawned partly cloudy and very cold at just 14°F above zero by 7AM. Those pesky arctic winds were also still in play, coming resolutely out of the north (abet more slowly). Mornings like this reminded me of living in Chicago when it got so cold your hands would stick to the car door handle! So, this was not a day I'd normally want to venture out, but I did anyway. I wanted to go have breakfast at a local eatery, so I bundled myself up, got into my Jeep and made the trek into town. I'll tell you right now, it felt every bit as cold as I imagined it would!

Hot food is the order of the day!

Hey! A man's gotta eat! Right?

I arrived at a restaurant named Charlie's Steak Ribs and Ale in Forsyth, Mo. at about 8AM to find just a few patrons also having breakfast. I remembered, then that it was after all a Saturday morning and most folks didn't need to get out of bed. The food was good, however, and did I mention it was hot! In short order, it was time to pay my tab and depart!

Back out on the streets, the traffic was light. Typical for an early weekend. I got home, in short order, and checked my gauges to find the temperature had gotten all the way up to 16°F!

Gonna be a hot one, I thought! Well, at least I'll have time to run to the grocery store and stock up today before things get really nasty on Sunday.

[end of day 1]

Is the weather getting more wacky?

Looking back on the weather of 2011, one would have to admit that things were rather strange (to say the least) as the United States experienced everything from extreme drought, heat waves and floods to unprecedented tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms. All told the damage bill came to over twelve billion dollars spread over twelve separate events. This was an all time record, by far. According to a short video featuring Jack Hayes, Director of the National Weather Service, we can expect more of the same in 2012 as the world climate changes. “ The world must be prepared for more frequent weather extremes in the future”, Mr. Hayes was quoted as stating in the video.

That bring us to the winter of 2011-12. And yes, it has already been a little extreme in one regard. Only in this case, the extreme has been the warmth! It's been so warm that the average for the first week of January was a full eight degrees above the historical average for my location here in southwest Missouri. One has to wonder, however, just when the pendulum will swing over to the opposite side? Will the warmth of early January turn into a deep freeze by month's end? I don't know and neither does anyone else. What the experts are now warning everyone, is that increasingly the 'weather dice' are becoming more and more loaded in the direction of chaotic events.

So, keep an eye to the sky and make sure you are as prepared as you can be for whatever Mother Nature might decide to throw your way.

National Weather Service uses the 'S' word for the first time this season!

Well, they’ve gone and done it! The National Weather Service for the Springfield Missouri area has used the ‘S’now word for the first time this season. Seems that Wednesday night, November the 2nd might see a chance of some snow flurries as a projected storm system moves through the region.

If that does come to pass, it will be one of the earliest occurrences of snow I can remember in quite some time. Here’s the exact quote, “Main concerns are fire weather today and rain/TSTM chances Wed/Wed night (and a little bit of snow Wed night??). Later concerns are another frontal passage over the weekend...then more rain chances next week.”

Ah, snow in the first days of November! Yeah, that sounds about right!

September 2011: Mid Month Summary

Year to Date Wx Summary:

(data from DanO's Place KMOFORSY1- click graph to enlarge)

Observations: 

September the 14th and 15th marked, what I think, could turn out to be a semi-permanent change in the weather pattern that persisted for much of the summer months! It had been Hot! Hot! Hot! Yes, if you like your thermometer to read in the hundreds, then you would have liked Forsyth Missouri this past July and August.

Of some concern, is the lack of any significant rainfall. So far this month, I've registered 0.16 of an inch. We have some ways to go to his the 4 inch average that has been compiled over the past thirty years. 

After the first frontal passage, on Wednesday the 14th, it was; cool, overcast and just down right pleasant. The little rain that has been recorded fell that day.

Check out the national weather map below. It shows both fronts quite well.

 (click on map to set it into motion)

That graphic gives me a good feeling that some extended cooler weather may be on the way. The lower cold front which passed in the morning hours is expected to stall just south of the Arkansas border. The second one, however is expected to crash on through later today and tonight. It will bring a significantly cooler regime (and maybe rain) that should extend into the beginning of the second half of the month.

Hemispheric Loop:

 (click on map to set it into motion)