Saturday, February 25, 2017

Taney County forecast for the last work week of Februay 2017!


After enduring a rather cold and below normal weekend,a refreshing change brought on by persistent south winds Monday will bring up more abundant warmth and moisture with a continued chance for light rain at times. Rising mid level heights ahead of trough digging into into the southwest U.S. will limit instability, so we are just expecting overall light precipitation amounts. Then, it gets better!


At this juncture, there appear to be three potential initiation points for severe thunderstorms from this afternoon into tonight. A Tornado Watch was issued at 2:23 PM CST Tuesday. This watch, for Taney County and other nearby counties will be in effect until 9PM tonight:

1. There may be a window for strong/severe convection across the eastern half of the CWA by mid-afternoon as convective temperatures are reached and convection is perhaps aided by a bit of lift from the low level jet. This is by far the most uncertain scenario, but if it should come to fruition, any convection that develops would likely become super cellular very quickly, with some potential for significant severe given more than sufficient CAPE and shear.

2. By early to mid evening, supercells may develop across eastern/northeastern Oklahoma and/or northwest Arkansas and move northeast into the CWA. This scenario has a bit of support from various short term, high resolution model guidance, though is far from certain. Given that supercells would be the preferred mode, large hail, winds, and tornadoes would all be possible with this activity.

3. The highest confidence opportunity is with the cold front itself, which should sweep across the region from late evening into the overnight hours. A line of strong/severe convection seems probable along this front, though a few breaks in the line are certainly possible. High winds would be the most likely hazard with this line, though a few QLCS-type tornadoes are possible with any east-northeast surges given 0-3 KM shear vectors pushing 40+ knots.


The aforementioned system will move off to the east Wednesday leaving a zonal flow aloft in its wake. After seasonably cool temperatures persist on Wednesday warm conditions will return for the later part of the week. Dry and increasingly breezing conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions late in the week.

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Color Taney County work week three warm! At least for the start!


We must all remember that this is still February! That said, it will stay warm even as an upper level trough and associated Pacific front will push eastward across the region on Monday. A band of scattered to numerous showers will spread across the Ozarks region from west to east. Computer models continue to depict modest instability which will support isolated thunderstorms. While most areas will receive modest rainfall amounts, that will not put much of a dent in the current dry spell. Still it's a start!

Rising 500 MB heights and a more zonal pattern will follow the passage of the upper level trough. This will keep the warm weather pattern going through mid week. And OK, we can all live with that! Highs Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday will rise into the 70's. So, everyone, get out your shorts and show off those white legs!


The unseasonably warm weather, we've all be enjoying, will continue through mid week as a zonal pattern evolves. Southerly winds will resume Wednesday and increase on Thursday as surface low pressure develops over the Plains. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the middle and upper 70's. Elevated fire weather conditions will develop in some areas Wednesday as temperatures warm and the air mass remains dry.


The surface low pressure system will strengthen as it tracks into northern Missouri on Friday and a broad upper level trough transitions eastward from the western U.S. An associated cold front will push across the region on Friday. At this time a mostly dry frontal passage is expected as the deeper moisture remains to our east. Resulting increase in surface winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions especially Friday.


A colder weather pattern with temperatures more typical of late February can be expected next weekend into early next week. Chances of precipitation could return late next weekend into next Monday but the details remain uncertain at this time as confidence in model solutions remains low at this time. Well, it was good while it lasted...

Several models are signaling some light precipitation late Sunday morning across east central Kansas and west central Missouri. This is in response to an approaching upper level disturbance. The 00z or 6AM CST computer models do not suggest any QPF (which stands for the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area), throwing any uncertainty into Sunday's precipitation forecast.

With the lower tropopause in place, (the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere) that should result in a dry Sunday morning, we think that if precipitation does occur, it will hold off until mid day at least. (This would cause precipitation to be rain as opposed to snow). Therefore we have all rain chances going and leave the snow out of the picture at this time.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Week 3 forecast for February!


Could this be a more boring forecast? Monday will start the week off fairly nice with plenty of sunshine, light winds and temperatures around 50 as the surface high slowly moves across the area.

A cut off upper level low will begin to shift out of the southwest and across the southern plains Monday night and through Tuesday. This will bring the potential for some showers across the region though rainfall amounts will be on the light side and primarily focused on the southern half of the Ozarks.

As the upper low moves east it will drag the precipitation south with it. There may be a few flakes of snow that mix in with the light rain late Monday night into early Tuesday morning but not expecting anything to stick.


A big pattern change will commence from mid to late week as an upper level ridge builds into the central United States. This will result in a warming trend with highs returning to the 60's by Thursday. We have continued to go on the warm side of guidance through the weekend as most models have tended to have a cool bias recently. Additionally (especially for late this work week), southwest low level flow often bodes well for warmer temperatures.

One fly in the ointment comes early this weekend as global models bring upper level energy northeast across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. This could result in some shower potential, especially across far southern and southeastern Missouri. Confidence is fairly low at this point in precipitation potential.

Global models have then been fairly consistent bringing an upper level trough east across the central United States either late this weekend or early next week. There has been a slight slowing trend noted. Nevertheless, this may be our next decent shot at measurable rainfall.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Work week # 2 in Febraury 2017!



Very little temperature change is expected with the passage of Monday night's PAC front as temperatures bounce back into the 60's on Tuesday.

A Canadian front then approaches from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will bring colder temperatures to the Ozarks. We could also experience a brief band of light rain or snow on
Thursday. Models have been signaling this band of precipitation for several runs now, however, the positioning of this band has varied with each model run. So the snow risk on Thursday is very uncertain at this time.

By next weekend, a brief upper level ridge of high pressure will create warmer temperatures and dry weather for the Ozarks.


The temperatures will swing back to the warm side very quickly Fri with southwest winds and a retreating dry air mass as the sfc (surface) high moves east and southeast of the area and mid level height rises move into the central CONUS (Continental United States). Could see highs near 80 deg F over the far southwest corner Saturday, but a fly in the ointment may be increased clouds with low level moisture advection. Potential weather impacts during this time will be fire weather related, particularly Friday with warm temperatures, low humidity, and increased southwest winds, especially over the western cwfa.

Sat night-Monday: Another front is expected to move through Sat night-Sunday with a chance of showers. Forecast builder/grids only have a low probability for thunder. The ECMWF is not robust at all with precipitation along the front and a quick glance at progged soundings off the GFS show fairly shallow moisture and/or capping. Cooler and dry weather is expected Monday behind the front.


Some changes are in the forecast later on. We still expect a split flow pattern to develop over the CONUS with a northern stream shortwave pushing a cold front through the area late Sat night. Have backed off on rain chances somewhat, but some post frontal drizzle or very light rain will still be possible over the southern cwfa (county wide forecast area) Sunday.

Monday-Tuesdayish: The main question will be how far north precipitation can make it as a closed low along the AZ/NM/Mexican border in the southern stream of the upper flow Monday ejects out. 6AM guidance has the ECMWF much farther north with the track of the upper wave with more potential for precipitation versus the GFS. [We can only hope]. The forecast is a compromise blend favoring the best chances over southern MO. There is not much cold air north of the low in either case, but the forecast builder does spit out some sleet and snow Monday night with low/mid 30s temperatures. At this point we are not anticipating much adverse impact given the relatively warm temperatures (and relatively low confidence in the storm track).