After enduring a rather cold and below normal weekend,a refreshing change brought on by persistent south winds Monday will bring up more abundant warmth and moisture with a continued chance for light rain at times. Rising mid level heights ahead of trough digging into into the southwest U.S. will limit instability, so we are just expecting overall light precipitation amounts. Then, it gets better!
TUESDAY, FEB 28
At this juncture, there appear to be three potential initiation points for severe thunderstorms from this afternoon into tonight. A Tornado Watch was issued at 2:23 PM CST Tuesday. This watch, for Taney County and other nearby counties will be in effect until 9PM tonight:
1. There may be a window for strong/severe convection across the eastern half of the CWA by mid-afternoon as convective temperatures are reached and convection is perhaps aided by a bit of lift from the low level jet. This is by far the most uncertain scenario, but if it should come to fruition, any convection that develops would likely become super cellular very quickly, with some potential for significant severe given more than sufficient CAPE and shear.
2. By early to mid evening, supercells may develop across eastern/northeastern Oklahoma and/or northwest Arkansas and move northeast into the CWA. This scenario has a bit of support from various short term, high resolution model guidance, though is far from certain. Given that supercells would be the preferred mode, large hail, winds, and tornadoes would all be possible with this activity.
3. The highest confidence opportunity is with the cold front itself, which should sweep across the region from late evening into the overnight hours. A line of strong/severe convection seems probable along this front, though a few breaks in the line are certainly possible. High winds would be the most likely hazard with this line, though a few QLCS-type tornadoes are possible with any east-northeast surges given 0-3 KM shear vectors pushing 40+ knots.
WED ON THRU SATURDAY
The aforementioned system will move off to the east Wednesday leaving a zonal flow aloft in its wake. After seasonably cool temperatures persist on Wednesday warm conditions will return for the later part of the week. Dry and increasingly breezing conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions late in the week. www.taneyservices.com