A warm up? Light winds early will give way to southwest winds by early afternoon with a nice warm up ahead of an approaching surface front. MOS guidance has temperatures at or just above 60 deg F over the the Taney County forecast area. This actually might be a tad cool in a southwesterly surface flow regime. Potential weather impacts are fire weather related with warm/dry conditions and moderate wind gusts in the afternoon. Doesn't look like warning conditions, but elevated concerns are still warranted.
The front will slow and maybe stall briefly for a time over or near our area. In any case, a dry air mass will be in place and we are not expecting any precipitation. It should be warmer than normal and dry with fairly light winds. Ergo, our mini-drought stricken condition is likely to continue..
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY
The surface front over our area Tue into Wed will finally start to get pushed south as a Canadian surface ridge noses into our area. The ECMWF and Canadian guidance continue to push the surface high center into Neb/IA/northern MO by Fri. The GFS keeps the surface high center farther north and allows some moisture to advect northward into the region Thu. So, or now, we will go closer to the drier solutions during this time. Forecast confidence starts to lower as guidance has trouble zeroing in on individual systems in the zonal flow.
WEEKEND - WARMING TREND ALERT
A warming trend will commence today as the Canadian high departs and winds shift south. Temperatures will increase about 10 degrees over yesterday with another 10 to 15 degree jump on Sunday under zonal flow aloft.
In addition to shifting to the south a weak wave moving across southern Canada will drop pressures over the Northern Plains and increase the pressure gradient during the day today. Moisture will lag resulting in RH values dropping into the 30's and an elevated threat for the spread of grass fires.www.taneyservices.com