Thursday, August 25, 2016

Weather for the end of August 2013!

Taney county Missouri - For the last part of August and on into an early September work week, look for isolated to widely scattered rain and thunderstorm chances that will continue right up to the 31st. Abundant moisture will continue to be in place across the area with weak disturbances as well. This daily chance of convection will mainly be in the afternoon and evening with daytime heating. It doesn't appear that any one day will be a wash out for early next week, but scattered rain chances will remain. 
A cool down is coming Wednesday: Computer generated forecast models have become more aggressive on the push of a cooler and drier air mass following a cold frontal passage late Wednesday night. The upper level flow is sharper with a north to south flow over the region and a Canadian surface high pressure moving in for the end of the week. We will have northeast winds at the surface Thursday through Friday night. Guidance shows highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's for the end of the week and overnight temps down in the middle to upper 50's with lower humidity. A touch of Fall for the start of meteorological Fall on Thursday! There are no rain chances for the Thursday through Saturday time frame. Warmer temperatures and humidity begin to return by late in the weekend with slight chances of rain again by next Sunday or Monday.

Prepared especially for

Saturday, August 20, 2016

Taney County MO August weather week four!

Wow! Is fall here already? Surface high pressure will then remain in control of the Ozarks weather through Monday night. Temperatures will be mild for August with highs only around 80 for Sunday and the low to middle 80's on Monday.

An upper level short wave will move into the plains Tuesday morning and bring the chance for rain Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front will move through the region Thursday with additional
rain expected for the end of the work week and into next weekend.

Through the week temperatures will remain mild however with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's. This is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the
second half of August in the Ozarks, when normal highs are near 90 and overnight lows are in the upper 60's

Update for Tuesday onward to Friday: Scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms will likely develop Tuesday morning as the upper level trough moves east and pushes the surface low to the east.

For Wednesday through Thursday evening the upper level trough will fight to push the upper level ridge over the southeast out of the way. The resulting southwesterly flow aloft will work to
develops a band of precipitation oriented along this boundary. Computer models have slightly differing placement where this will set up. For now both the GFS and ECMWF have the majority of the rainfall across the northern two thirds of Missouri through early Friday before the upper trough finally pushes a cold front through the Ozarks Friday evening.

The general consensus is for off and on showers and storms, none of which are expected to be severe, impacting the region through this week and into the coming weekend.

Tuesday Update: After our taste of quiet and autumn-like weather, unsettled conditions will return to the Missouri Ozarks today. A warm front will lift north towards the region as upper level short wave
energy moves east across the central Plains. A low level jet stream will override that front and induce isentropic upglide across the area...especially this morning. This will result in broken bands of showers and thunderstorms moving northeast across the area.

Update: Thursday thru the Weekend: A frontal system will slowly sag into the Taney County area during the day on Thursday. The front will continue to hang out across our northwest area of the Ozarks with additional chances for shower and storms Friday through the weekend. Can not rule out a strong storm or two but the main threats will be lightning and heavy downpours. At this time, it doesn't appear heavy rainfall or any flooding will be a concern. Temperatures will be knocked down with the extra cloud cover and convection around with highs in the middle 80s. Prepared especially for

Friday, August 12, 2016

Taney County MO - August work week 3!

Forsyth Mo. - After working our way through a another brutal week temperature wise (not to mention strange rainfall patterns), the climate switch will likely flip over in the other direction with cooler than normal temperatures! In addition, overcast skies and frequent rainfall will become more the norm early on in work week #3.

The rain making system will begin to depart the region to the east Monday night into early Tuesday morning with lingering showers expected through the day on Tuesday across eastern portions of the Ozarks and eastern Missouri.

The Tuesday through Thursday night period looks absolutely splendid for mid to late August. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80's on an afternoon basis under a mix of sun and clouds.
Rain chances appear to be low through Thursday night.

Models consensus suggests increasing rain chances by Friday through next weekend. Weak shortwave energy dives into the nation's midsection, forcing a strong frontal system into the Ozarks. This front will interact with an air mass loaded in summertime moisture, to produce this active weather.

The weather behind this frontal system will be unbelievable, with highs in the upper 70's to near 80 by Sunday and early next week.

Update: For Thu into Fri the mid level flow gets more active with initially subtle impulses moving from the the southern Plains into the Ozarks. We have gradually increasing rain chances during this time as some better moisture starts to return northward.

Guidance continues to dig a more substantial upper level wave southeast into the northern and central Plains late Fri-Sat with a fairly good chance for rain showers and or thunderstorms with lead impulses ahead of the main upper level wave. A sfc cold front moving through the cwfa will also help focus rain chances Sat.

Update:  More organized showers and thunderstorms will approach the region Friday night from the northwest ahead of an advancing cold front. This activity will initially develop to our northwest across Kansas and northwestern Missouri Friday afternoon then spread southeastward toward the Ozarks region later Friday night. A weakening trend will occur with these storms move into the area. However we do expect a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms later Friday night.


Friday, August 5, 2016

Taney County MO - Work Week #2

Forsyth MO. - Monday, August the 2nd will kick off the second work week for my area in southwest Missouri and very little change in the weather patterns we've grown used to will change very much.

On Monday, we can expect an upper level trough or front to have moved into the the Pacific northwest which will have the effect of amplifying an existing ridge of high pressure the was over the Rockies, but will then edge onto the Central Plains by later that day. And, by now, we all know what high pressure signifies - more hot temperatures. But wait, there will also be ample stagnant moist air in place, so we will also find things to be muggy as well. Note that the over all temperature pattern will be below what we had in the first week, but not by much! Bottom line: Expect stifling heat. Thursday, however, will be the last day of this sort of stuff as unsettled conditions will start on Friday!

Update: An unsettled period will begin in earnest on Friday as the remnants of the nocturnal MCS push southeast across the area during the morning. Thunderstorms should be very efficient rain
producers with potential rain values of 2" to 2.25". The main upper jet energy will lift northeast Friday night with weak flow out of the southwest continuing over the area which will cause the frontal boundary to stall out across the area. The heavy rain axis over the remainder of the weekend into early next week will be dependent on where the front sets up, but at this point it looks like the best axis of heavy rain will be across the southeast half of the CWA, but may begin to expand back to the north during the early part of next week. It does appear that our area will receive a decent amount of rain and there will be an increasing flood risk as the weekend progresses.