Sunday, December 31, 2017

Taney County work week 1 in 2018!

MONDAY – January 1

Welcome to a New Year and Ice Station Zebra! The center of the surface high that has been responsible for the arctic chill down will move deeper into the area Monday and Monday night. Therefore similar conditions are expected to what you all have become used to the last couple of days. Winds will thankfully become lighter, but with temps below zero it only takes a 3-5mph wind to send wind chills back to -10 or below.

TUESDAY – January 2

The Wind Chill Advisory runs through midday Tuesday. Several records for low temps are in jeopardy on this date. Other than that, it will be a pleasure for many who will be returning to work. Assuming it's an indoor job, that is!


Surface high moves south of the area Wednesday and winds will switch around to the southwest. (About time)! Temps will start to rebound for a short time, however another shot of cold air comes down Wednesday night into Thursday. This insult will be more of a glancing blow, mainly affecting the eastern half of the area with the coldest temps. Here in Taney County it will only be in the teens...

FRIDAY – January 5

By Friday, the southwest half of the forecast area should see temperatures climb above freezing for highs with areas in central Missouri in the mid to upper 20's. However, the upper pattern will be in transition as the upper trough shifts eastward and ridging begins to move into the plains. Our temperatures by Saturday should reach the mid 30's northeast to mid 40's southwest.


Precipitation should begin to move into the area Saturday night and continue through the remainder of the weekend as an upper level system shifts east through the area. Most of the time period looks like it would be in the form of rain, with some chances of snow thrown in with the colder nighttime temperatures.


Models show light precipitation developing over southeast Kansas into southwestern Missouri by sunrise Sunday. One aspect is for certain, the ground is cold and frozen with several inches of frost depth. The question then remains how the air temperatures will respond and how quickly does the area warm up above freezing Sunday morning into the afternoon as warm air advection moves in. The freezing line will slowly retread from west to east during the day Sunday. A light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow will progress across the area especially along and east
of Highway 65 Sunday morning. As temperatures warm up above freezing, it will turn over to a cold rain. A light glaze of ice along with a coating of light sleet and light snow look increasing likely for areas along and east of Highway 65. The greatest potential for minor accumulations will be over the eastern Ozarks where temperatures stay coldest the longest. Some travel impacts look likely over the eastern areas.

Most of the area changes over to cold rain late Sunday afternoon. As temperatures drop back down Sunday night, some of the rain could change back over to a light wintry mix again before ending from west to east. Overall a general half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall may be possible with this system.

A milder and drier weather pattern returns for early next week with above average temperatures. High temperatures in the 50s will return by the middle of next week. There will be another storm system to affect the area by Thursday with rainfall. Colder air will return on the back side of that system and change the rain to snow later in the week.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

New Year's weather forecast for Taney County!

A tricky forecast for Friday and Friday night with a sneaky drizzle event possible before the arctic front comes through late in the night or early morning Saturday.

Friday, December 29

Southerly winds were keeping temps in the teens and low 20's for the most part across the area this morning. While some low clouds were exiting east, other mid to high clouds were moving in. Do think that clouds will move back in for most of today. Another contrast in temps from north to south will occur today as thickness values increase across southern Missouri. A little hesitant to go as warm as guidance, even with southerly winds. Locations along and south of Interstate 44 will approach 40 with locations across Central Missouri only making it into the low 30's. Feel free to get out there and enjoy the warmth!

Forecast soundings for this afternoon for Central Missouri (Warsaw over to Vichy), shows a general lack of cloud ice with relative humidity readings of around 40-50% along with a moist layer below 850mb along with some lift in that layer. With temps around freezing, we do think that some freezing drizzle may be possible with better chances just northeast of the area toward Jeff City. 00Z/06Z NAM, along with latest hi res models do show this signal. Not confident enough yet to issue a advisory for this area however model trends along with surface temps/high's will need to be monitored today. With a cold ground, even just a little freezing drizzle can cause some impacts.

Hi resolution computer models and the NAM then show an area of drizzle potential across the rest of the Missouri Ozarks after midnight tonight, just ahead of the Arctic front. Model soundings vary a little on how much cloud ice is present, however a warm layer exists around 850mb with lift in that layer. Again, surface temps will be critical in determining the impact here, especially with southerly winds. Definitely need to monitor the drizzle potential tonight as ground temps are cold. The Arctic front looks to arrive across our far NW counties by 12 midnight and then clear through the area by 6AM. This event then begins a period of much colder temps.

SATURDAY – December 30

Cold air advection will be in earnest Saturday and Sunday as a 1050mb+ surface high sends some very cold air south into the area. Temps will likely fall all day Saturday with temps in the teens and single digits by evening. We can't rule out some flurries across far southwest Missouri Sat night, but most will likely stay just south of the Taney County area.

The 850mb (5000 feet up) temps drop close to -18C (-.4ºF) during the late Saturday through and Monday time frame. This looks to be a very cold stretch with highs in the teens and lows in the -5 to 5F range. Gusty north winds will continue as the pressure gradient doesn't really let up until closer to Tuesday. Winds look to remain near 10-15mph during the weekend. Therefore wind chill values Saturday night into Sunday morning will drop to -10F.


Sunday night into Monday appears to be the most dangerous as wind chill values drop to as low as -25ºF. Wind Chill Advisory criteria is -10ºF and Wind Chill Warning criteria is -25ºF. Confidence is high that Advisory criteria will be reached and look for those to be posted possibly later today. With New Years Eve being Sunday, there will be additional impacts as more people may be out and about and/or traveling.

TUESDAY - We get hit again!

The center of the high moves over the area Tuesday however another shot of cold air moves down Wednesday and lasts through Thursday. Ain't we the lucky ones!

Monday, December 25, 2017

Christmas work week forecast!


A cloudy yet quiet day with the high temperature only in the mid 30's. Monday will likely be the warmest day of the work week! Hoping everyone has a safe and a Merry Christmas!


Chilly northeast breezes continues tomorrow as highs only make it into the upper 20s and lower 30s. A couple flurries are not out of the question, but certainly no accumulations.


Another upper level wave will pass overhead on Thursday. Models are not showing much QPF with this system either, although we could see more flurries with Thursday's wave.


Friday will be the "warm" day of the week before another surge of cold air begins to move in Friday night. Bitter cold will be the main highlights of the forecast for the weekend and New Years Day before temperatures moderate somewhat by midweek. Some very light snow or flurries will be possible at times this weekend. Temperatures will moderate a little with some s-se winds. Some highs in the low 40's may be possible in our southern MO counties with 30's elsewhere. So, some of you might want to go shinny dipping in your local pond....


A bitter arctic air mass will settle in over the region for this period. As the cold air first comes in, we
could see some frontogenetically induced flurries/light snow late Fri night into Sat. Nothing major. However, given the high snow:liquid ratios it won't take much to get a light accumulation.
Guidance is also showing some upglide into southern MO into cold air dome late Sat night into Sunday morning. Again, a light fluffy accumulation (< 1 inch) is in the grids for parts of southern MO. There is fairly low confidence in this right now. We certainly aren't looking at a big snow dumper during this forecast period, but any flurries and light accumulating snow will just add insult to injury given how cold it will be.

Forecast guidance which had been quite variable as far as temperatures are concerned are now finding some middle ground. The coldest period looks to be Sunday through Monday night. Some below zero temperatures are expected for early New Year's morning.


Some weak moderation in temperature is expected Tuesday as the center of the cold sfc high moves off to the south and another trough approaches from the northwest. By Wednesday, guidance diverges in the timing/position of another Canadian high moving south into the area. In general it does look like we may see some moderation in temperatures later in the week (beyond Wed) as the upper flow tries to become more west-east zonal over the central CONUS.

Friday, December 15, 2017

Taney weather for work week Dec 18-22!


Yawn! Temperatures heading into Monday and then on through the week will remain in the 50's during the day with overnight temperatures in the 30's for the most part, thanks to continuing southwesterly flow aloft across the region. For me that translates into a cross between hibernating and hitting the bars!


Very warm and breezy conditions are expected on Thursday as a surface low and cold front move into KS/OK area. There are still timing differences among various guidance sims concerning the fropa (frontal passage) timing and this is mainly dependent on how strong surface waves will develop along the front. The warm sector is initially characterized by modest low level moisture and not much in the way of rain chances. This gradually changes as the front moves into eastern MO.


The main focus for Friday continues to be the potential for snow from Friday night into Saturday morning. Models continue to depict a short wave trough pivoting east across the region during this period, with this wave shearing (weakening) with time. An area of rain should initially expand from southwest to northeast from the Arklatex into southeastern Missouri during the day on Friday as low and mid-level frontogenesis strengthens ahead of that approaching short wave trough.

One of the keys to the forecast will then be how much additional precipitation development can take place farther north into the "cold sector" of this developing low pressure system from eastern
Oklahoma into southern Missouri. Close inspection of model cross sections indicates that this window may be shrinking from both a spatial and temporal standpoint.


Unseasonably cold air will move south out of Canada during this time. Can't rule out some flurries or a light dusting accumulation in some spots, especially Sunday, with the passage of a shortwave, but again, not looking at much if anything at all. Christmas Day may be a struggle to get above freezing in many/most areas.


Digging energy across the Plains may then bring another chance for some light snow to the region from late Saturday night into Sunday. There are still considerable differences regarding the track of this energy, thus we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range for now.

Global models from the early to middle portions of next week are then struggling from a consistency standpoint. We went on the cold side with temperatures as GFS five wave charts indicate a good
signal for cross polar flow and an amplified trough over eastern North America. There are some signals for more precipitation chances by midweek, however confidence remains low due to the aforementioned inconsistency with models.

Friday, December 1, 2017

December work week numero one for Taney County!


A big trough will develop and dig across the central U.S. Early this week. A strong cold front will move into the region Monday afternoon. Monday will be a warm and windy day with some wind gusts over 35 mph possible. Model guidance indicate a few shower possible over eastern Kansas by late Monday morning to midday. A broken line of storms will quickly develop right along the cold front by mid to late afternoon Monday. Most unstable CAPE values may be up to 1000 J/KG along with very strong shear. There appears to be at least a marginal threat for a couple strong to isolated severe storms possible across the Ozarks Region Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Given the dynamics, isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph may be the main threat. The great chance of rainfall and amounts will be along the I-44 corridor and southeastward. The front and storms clear through the Ozarks region shortly after midnight.

The upper level trough continues to establish itself over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region by Tuesday. It will be a cool and breezy day across the Ozarks.


A deep trough weather pattern sets up across the Midwest and eastern U.S. for the middle of next week with deep northerly flow across our region. High temperatures will only be in the upper 30's to low 40's with overnight lows in the 20s. It looks like we will likely see a couple shortwaves riding through the upper level flow of the trough and associated fronts which will reinforce the colder weather for the latter part of the week.


Guidance continues to show a strong shortwave digging and moving across the Midwest Region into the Ohio River Valley on Friday with a clipper like system moving across the area. This feature may bring another chance for snow flurries across portions of the region. At this time, we do not see any impacts but will monitor future trends. The latest guidance has come in colder for the end of the week and forecast temperatures have reflected that. We will likely see highs only in the 30's and overnight lows in the teens and 20's. Wind chills may drop into the single digits by Friday and Saturday. Some moderation in temperatures may return by next weekend.

No matter what, it will definitely feel more like winter next week. So dig out the winter coats and make sure you're full of eggnog before heading out!

Monday, November 27, 2017

Taney County weather for last work week of November!


Light southerly winds and some passing cirrus were keeping temps in the low 40's east to the low 50's west for Monday early. A developing surface low pressure across Arkansas will then move slowly east as the day progresses. This combined with rising heights/thicknesses and a tightening pressure gradient across the plains will result in a very warm and windy day today across the Taney County area. We went a few degrees higher than guidance for highs given latest performance of overachieving highs during these southwest wind setups. Also, computers models have handled expected dew points poorly lately, especially during peak afternoon mixing and have followed alternative thinking for today which promotes a slower moisture return. This dry air will bode potentially ill winds, as a result...

The warm and windy conditions will only exacerbate the fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning will be issued for portions of the area on Monday. Southerly winds will also help to keep temps up tonight ahead of a cold front moving south into Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa. Fun times!


A weather front is forecast to dig into the Rockies on Tuesday with an associated cold front moving through in the evening as low pressure develops across Oklahoma. This system, while compact, will not have much moisture or instability with it and rainfall amounts will be rather light on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through. Models move this system through rather slowly and eventually a wave to our north will kick it along Wednesday night along with a stronger cold front.


After the balmy temperatures of the last few days, cooler temperatures are on tap for Wednesday with highs expected to be in the upper 50's to perhaps lower 60's. These temperatures out there are still a solid 10-15 degrees above normal. So, we can't complain too much!

Lingering light rain showers may then hold on across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday morning as another short wave trough quickly moves into the region behind the departing closed upper level low. Otherwise, dry weather will return to the area for the remainder of the week. Temperatures through Saturday will remain above normal with highs in the upper 5'0s to lower 60's and lows in generally in the 30's.


Global models then continue to indicate a large scale pattern change as we get into next week. However, significant differences remain in the synoptic scale regarding timing and placement of
troughs. The good news is that regardless of any particular model solution, we should stand increasing chances for precipitation starting early next week as a southwesterly flow aloft develops and Gulf of Mexico moisture returns north.

Looking ahead, five wave charts indicate a long wave pattern which would then support a deepening trough over eastern North America with a signal for cross-polar flow. If this pans out, much colder temperatures may be on the way as we get towards the end of next week. See the Climate section below for more detailed information.


By Sunday, an upper level trough will develop across the western U.S. with a sharp upper level ridge building along the West Coast into southwest Canada. A strong cold front will start sliding
southward across the Central Plains and move into our region Monday night. Ahead of the front on Monday, winds will be breezy 15 to 20 mph. Models indicate a good chance of widespread light rainfall Monday night into Tuesday across the area with QPF amounts around a quarter of an inch. There may be just enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder but no severe weather is

A large and deep trough develops and digs across the Great Lakes Region into the Midwest Region by the middle of next week. All medium and long range guidance indicates a much colder weather pattern will likely develop with below normal temperatures for the middle and end of next week.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

November – An overnight freezing event!

Forsyth MO. – Even though the thermometer had dropped a bit below the freezing mark (29ºF) on the evening before, I thought it might be worthwhile to chronicle the Tuesday, November 21, 2017.

The weather forecast for Taney County, located in southwest Missouri, was as follows;

 'AM Clouds/PM Sun. High near 60ºF. WSW winds shifting to NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Nighttime: Clear. Low 27ºF. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph'.

A high pressure system, that was forecast to build off to the west of my area overnight was the supposed culprit, as it would bring (initially) northerly winds and clear skies. Oh joy! This sort of development would also have a rather poor effect on the day Wednesday, with the only good news being a return to better temps as the winds swing around on Thursday, after its passage off to the east!

[more to come...]

Taney County weather week three including Thanksgiving!


Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Tuesday with short wave energy digging southeast across the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this wave will quickly move southeast
across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from late this morning into this afternoon.

The 00Z GFS spits out some light QPF with this front late this morning and early this afternoon, however inspection of forecast soundings indicates that the low levels will be too dry to support a mention of rain showers. We will see quite a bit of cloud cover today, especially in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The passing front and cloud cover make high temperatures a tough call today. We are getting a fairly warm start this morning with most areas in the 40's. We should therefore be able to warm into the middle to upper 50's for highs. It should be noted that temperatures may actually steady off or even begin to fall behind that front north of the Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then build south across Kansas into northern Oklahoma Tuesday late. It looks like a rather chilly night under clear skies with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s.

With that high remaining west of the region, we will maintain a north wind overnight in the 5-10 mph range. This will drop wind chills into the middle and upper teens. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist with occasional short wave energy diving southeast in the flow. These passing short waves will do nothing more than drag dry cold fronts through the region every three to four days. This will bode well for anyone with travel plans across the region from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

As you would expect, temperatures will fluctuate in this type of pattern. We will see a nice warming trend starting on Thanksgiving with highs warming well into 50's. Highs in the 60's are then expected for Friday before temperatures cool back down a bit for next weekend.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Third November week to see hard freeze?

Blue line is the freezing mark!

Tuesday, November the 21st, and then again on the following Sunday, November the 27th both look to be Taney County's (probable) first encounter with seriously cold temperatures over night. And while ground and roads would be too warm for any problems to occur, it might still be a thought to make sure that you are 'winter' ready. If you have a home with outside water spigots, make sure that any hoses are disconnected. I you have a crawl space – now would be a good time to make sure that any vents are closed and that exposed pipes have some form of insulation. Failing that, place a small space heater there and perhaps let a few faucets drip overnight! Seriously, a broken water pipe is no fun!

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Taney weather November 13 to 17!


On Sunday, front pushes away from the area with high pressure building southward into the region in the afternoon.Yeppers, it's that dreaded time of the year, when the weather is both annoying and boring to most everyone!


After a cloudy start to the day, clouds should be on the decrease in the afternoon, with clear skies Sunday night into Monday.

The high shifts off to the east Monday night, with return flow on its backside which continues through Tuesday night. Warm advection showers are expected during this time frame, but should be
scattered in nature. Whoppee!


Computer models do forecast a few hundred j/kg of most unstable CAPE Tuesday night as low level jet noses into the forecast area. Will have to watch for the potential for some thunder. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the upswing with highs ranging from the middle 60's in southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri, to the upper 50's across the eastern Ozarks. Everyone! Grab your shorts!


The 'somewhat active' weather pattern will continue for mid week as yet another upper trough and surface front is poised to move through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will keep the shower chances going through the period, which may last into Thursday depending on frontal position.


A more zonal pattern will setup for late in the week and another upper level disturbance may track trough the region during the later part of next week bringing additional chances for rain with it's
passage on Friday.

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Taney County weather forecast for November 6 - 10!


This from the National Weather Service -

'Ultimately there doesn't appear to be much excitement in the forecast through the next seven days.' I was going to head over to Fresno, but there wasn't much going on over there either...
A cooler air mass will spread into the area behind a weekend front as highs only in the 50's occur. An upper level disturbance will likely spread across the area Monday afternoon/night and will bring additional chances for showers to the area, with the better potential generally south of I-44.

This rather boring scenario (abet with no rainfall) will be followed with highs only in the 40's Tuesday and Wednesday. [Might be getting time for me to hibernate]!


Another upper level disturbance will move through the area during the middle and end of the week and bring additional rain chances with their passage. OK, so this sort of nonsense will not be an all week rain event, but rain will be possible at times.

Temperatures will warm back into the 50's for the end of the week into next weekend. Really?

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Wx for Nov 2017 work week one!


Another dry cold will arrive early Monday morning and pass through without much fanfare. There will be an increase in mid level clouds with the front and temperatures will be knocked down a few degrees again on Monday. A couple of the models indicate a couple sprinkles possible behind the front Monday afternoon but we have don't any mention of measurable rainfall in the forecast.

I think I'll sleep in on that day!


Tuesday looks like it will be the coolest day of the week with clouds increasing during the day. A disturbance moving along in the west-southwest flow will start to move in Halloween evening. Models show scattered showers developing by mid evening and overnight...especially across southern Missouri into south central Missouri. At this time, it looks like Trick or Treaters will have mostly dry weather, but cold rain showers increasing later in the evening.


Showers will taper off from west to east on Wednesday as the disturbance moves eastward.


Southerly flow brings back warmer temperatures by Thursday with highs in the lower 70s. Another frontal boundary drops down into the region by Friday or Saturday. The boundary will be just north of our area. We will see scattered chances for showers Friday into Saturday with milder than average temperatures.

Monday, October 23, 2017

Beware November the 13!

Forsyth MO - On a slow day in October, I decided to look at the month of November and how the temperatures shaped up over the past five years! I specifically wanted to see what the average high and low for each day would look like when graphed out! Here's what I got in the way of a graph:

Here is the raw data:

What struck me was how consistent the 13th of that month had been for all those years - as in consistently cold! So, I thought it would be fun to see what happens this year!

Fourth week of October 2017 weather!


Western CONUS/east Pacific upper level ridging with a downstream trough will keep the region in northwest flow aloft. Gusty northwestern winds and dry weather will continue Tuesday with below normal temperatures.


Temperatures will moderate after a chilly start Wednesday morning as gusty winds back to the west ahead of another approaching surface trough/front.


Thursday is the pick of the litter out of the next 7 days across the region. If you like warm weather, Thursday is your day with plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach the middle 70's to near 80 at some locations. Southwest winds will be breezy again around 10 to 20 mph. A strong and dry cold front will move through the area late Thursday night into very early
Friday morning.


Friday will be a shocker compared to Thursday. Northwest winds will be gusting up to 35 mph, along with mostly cloudy skies behind the cold front. A deep and sharp upper level trough will drop southward across the Midwest Region for Friday and Saturday. Friday's afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach the middle or upper 40's but with gusty will feel more like it is in the 30's with the wind chill. A light freeze looks increasing likely by Friday into early Saturday morning with temperatures in the lower 30's.


The deep trough will be right over the region on Saturday with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Model guidance indicates some very light QPF possible across central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks region early Saturday morning through the early afternoon. There may be a few flurries or sprinkles possible with highs only in the lower to middle 40's on Saturday. If we do see some snow flakes, it will not cause any impacts or accumulate.

Skies will clear out Saturday night and winds will relax. This will likely be the coldest night so far this season and the growing season will come to an end with forecast low temperatures in the middle to upper 20's. We will most likely have some kind of freeze headlines for the weekend. We will slowly begin to moderate the temperatures Sunday into Monday with dry weather. Another cold front will move through Monday night into early on Tuesday. Some slight rain chances may return behind the front on Tuesday next week.

Monday, October 9, 2017

Taney County weather Oct 9 thru Oct 14!


It was a mild and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 60s under clear skies and light winds. These quiet conditions will continue today as readings warm into the 80s' this afternoon.

By this evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma and south central Kansas. A moisture tongue and instability axis will set up in this area, interacting with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Severe storms are becoming likely west of the Ozarks, however, we're less confident that sufficient instability will be present for severe storms on the Missouri side.

As of now we will continue mentioning the risk for 50 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail west of Springfield.


Showers and thunderstorms will translate eastward into Tuesday as a large upper level system swings overhead. This precipitation comes to an end by Tuesday night. Tuesday night lows will fall into the 40's as a cool rush of Canadian air spreads in.

This would be our first fall type cool air.


Temps on Wednesday will struggle to warm out of the 60's with 40's again Wednesday night.

The extended period of dry weather will continue through Saturday evening. Warmer air will spread in as southerly breezes return.

Models have sped up our next system over the weekend as a cold front moves in Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like this feature will bring a period of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday, October 6, 2017

TS Nate has potential to slam into New Orleans!

The mayor of New Orleans late Thursday declared a state of emergency for the city ahead of Tropical Storm Nate, which has already been blamed for 22 deaths in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

The city’s mayor Mitch Landrieu said residents who live outside the city’s levee system or in low-lying areas should move to higher ground.

“There is no need to panic,” he tweeted. “Be ready and prepare. Get a plan. Prepare to protect your personal property.”

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Taney County Wx - October week one!

Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through midweek as those southeasterly winds persist. The best moisture advection will actually occur across the southern and then central Plains as a surface ridge axis remains planted across the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, a northeast to southwest oriented frontal boundary will become established from the western Great Lakes into the Corn Belt and then southern Plains from Monday night into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should develop to our northwest along that front and in closer vicinity to short wave energy tracking northeast within the southwesterly flow aloft. [Yawn...]


Models all have showers/thunder breaking out across the area this morning. PW values will significantly increase across the forecast area today with most locations rising to around 1.6 to 1.9 in. The cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms will hold down warming today into the mid 70's to around 80. Upper level energy over the northern plains will shift east along the U.S. Canada border
tonight and will help to flatten out the ridge in the eastern U.S. This will help to set up the best moisture axis in a southwest to northeast fashion with the highest PW values setting up over our
northwestern CWA. The best chances of rain will be over our northwestern CWA tonight. Lows tonight will be quite mild in the low to mid 60's. [Me picking up some interest]...


The large scale pattern then becomes somewhat interesting as we head into the Wednesday through Thursday night time frame. Models are in good agreement that we will see a confluent mid and
upper level flow develop from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will be supportive of that front leaning over and becoming west to east oriented somewhere
across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. This setup can be a heavy rain producer. We will keep close tabs on this potential. The good news is that we need the rainfall. Thus, we could stand to pick up a few inches (or even more) without any worries of excessive runoff.


Global models then become divergent as we get into late this week. There is some loose consensus that the convergent flow will break down and an upper level trough will eject out of the western United States. However, impacts on sensible weather are a tough call out that far.

In term of temperatures, we will see a downward trend throughout the work week as clouds and precipitation become bigger players. The eventual position of that front will also come into play from
mid to late week.


Widespread light rainfall over the entire area during the day, but by Saturday evening, all precipitation will have shifted east of the Ozarks, bringing a very pleasant evening for the region. Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the low to mid 50's.


Southwest flow aloft quickly re-establishes itself on Sunday bringing surface temperatures back into the 80s. Dew points in the 50's and low 60's will make conditions feel less humid than what we've experienced over the past couple weeks. See more at!

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Last weather work week for September 2017 in Taney County!

The deep trough over the western U.S. will slowly creep eastward on Monday and Tuesday. Upper level heights over the area may be again a tad lower which means high temperatures only in the middle 80's for Monday. Model guidance suggest a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm over the Central Missouri area Monday afternoon and evening. (Think sluggish weather and you'd probable be spot on)! Yawn...


Computer model guidance shows a better chance for scattered showers and storms over the western area on Tuesday...mainly west of Highway 65 ahead of that oh so slow moving cold front. No severe weather is expected as significant lifting will not be around. The front will slowly move through the area on Wednesday. Try and picture molasses on a winter morning moving downhill. There will be additional chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms before the rain chances dry up. We do not expect every location to see rainfall through midweek or much rainfall if any falls. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side. So, the drought begun last month will carry forward....


Taney County MO - Finally, the heat that's been hanging over our heads for over a week will be lifting out. Cooler weather, courtesy of the aforementioned front, will begin moving in Wednesday and on through the rest of the last week of the month! We can then expect more seasonable temperatures along with dry weather to persist on through the weekend. Then, as a bonus, we may see some rainfall come Monday, October the 2nd! In the meantime, the lack of any significant rainfall for the past thirty days will mean more trees turning color just a tad early on...

Monday, September 18, 2017

Taney County Work Week 3!


For Monday, the best rain chances look to be from southeast Kansas into central Missouri (Taney County will once again miss the boat), with lesser amounts as you you head south. Given clouds and rainfall potential instability looks rather meager for any severe weather threat at this time. Highs will be warmest along the Arkansas border with readings in the middle 80's, tapering off to the middle 70's in central Missouri.

For Monday night, low level jet re-establishes itself across Kansas, with the jet then nosing into northeast Kansas late. Storms will be possible again in the vicinity of the jet across mainly Kansas and into northern Missouri. However, cannot rule out some isolated activity further south and east of the area in broad warm advection regime. Will keep lower end probabilities going given flow pattern. Lows will drop into the middle 60's.


Vigorous trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, while zonal to slightly southwesterly flow continues across the local area. With ample sunshine could see some isolated showers/storms develop, which should diminish by Tuesday night. Pressure gradient tightens and will likely see breezy and warm conditions, with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 80's.


For Wednesday through Sunday, highly amplified pattern will persist across the conus with a long wave trough across the west and strong ridging east. The forecast area will be between these two system, with more influence from the ridge. At this point it looks sadly like mainly a dry pattern for the most part, with most of the widespread precipitation chances remaining well to our west. However we will be on the edge of the deeper southwesterly flow so cannot rule out precipitation chances from time to time. Temperatures look to remain above normal through the period with the warmest days looking to be Wednesday and Thursday.


The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.
Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Taney County week three in 2017!

I decided to skip the weather for the second week of September as it was too boring for words.


After the potential for some rain showers over the weekend, courtesy of a front that will try and push south into the central Plains and northern Missouri, things may then warm up a bit...

The GFS has come in with a more amplified southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. Versus previous runs. The GFS five wave charts also support the more amplified pattern. Even the ECMWF model is trending this way. We may therefore hang onto the above normal temperatures along with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. See more at!


The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.
Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

Monday, September 4, 2017

Taney County MO September work week one!

After a warm and windy Labor Day, a cold front will be through the entire area by Tuesday morning. We expect post frontal showers to be possible for the first half of the day. Continued gusty north winds will usher in much cooler air and temps may actually fall throughout the day into the low 70's. Skies should then clear during the afternoon and evening.

High pressure moves over the area Wednesday and Thursday. High temps both days will struggle to reach 70 with lows in the mid to upper 40s in most locations. Northwest flow will continue through
the rest of the week. High temps late week into the weekend look below average with no precipitation chances. See more at!

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Labor Day 2017 weather forecast!

A deep upper level trough or area of disturbance will drop south out of the northern plains late Monday into Monday night. This will send a cold front toward our area.

That said, Monday (aka Labor Day) looks to be very warm ahead of the front with highs around 90 degrees in most locations, (heck a few low 90s are even possible across SE Kansas and western Missouri given 850mb temps between 20-22C). Low level moisture will also be on the increase, so it will feel sticky with heat indices in the middle to upper 90's. Most of the daytime hours will be dry Monday. Wind speeds will also be on the increase during the day. So get those grills out, party hardy and enjoy the last holiday of the summer!

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Weather for Taney Country last week of August 2017!


An area of disturbance will spread south towards the area today, then will move through the area tonight into Monday.

As the trough moves south Sunday, an associated cold front will move through the area. Scattered showers and storms should be able to develop along the front, especially north of I-44 as instability increases with the heating of the day. As the front moves south of I-44 tonight into Monday coverage should decrease but a few showers/storms will remain possible.

As instability increases Monday afternoon and evening a few strong storms will be possible, again mainly north of I-44. The main risk will be winds in excess of 50 mph and hail to the size of nickels in a few of the strongest storms.

Highs this Sunday afternoon should be able to top out in the lower to middle 80's as highs in the lower 80's are expected on Sunday. An upper level ridge will remain across the western CONUS through much of the week leaving the area in a northwest flow upper level pattern. This will keep the below normal conditions in place across the area as highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's occur each afternoon.


At this time we do not expect much in way of rain behind the front Tuesday through Thursday. Late this week into the weekend we may see moisture from the remnants of Harvey try to spread north into area. This could bring some rain chances to the area but confidence is low in the track of the system and medium range models remain inconsistent from run to run and each other.

TD "Harvey" will then track across northern Mississippi on Thursday and western Tennessee Thursday night. Almost all of the precipitation will remain southeast of the CWA, but up to a quarter inch may affect the far southeast portion of Oregon county.


The upcoming holiday weekend looks to be dry across the area with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on Friday, but warming back to more normal readings in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday in the wake of the tropical system.

A cold front is forecast to push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning which will bring the next chance of showers/thunderstorms to the region from the northwest. This will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Tuesday into the middle of next week.

Sunday, August 20, 2017

While there be a travel crisis on August 21?

Beginning in the morning hours on the East Coast and then running for for some time afterwards, millions of people all across the nation will have a chance to experience a full eclipse of the sun! This is something that hasn't happened of such extent in the US for over ninety years, and so, is a very rare event. Millions of dollars have been spent on viewing glasses and hotel reservations. The only big question that remains will be one of cloud cover.... [Begin the background music for Jaws]

Picture for yourself among millions of other cars on the road that day, all full of eager solar eclipse viewers vying for  a good patch of clear sky. The computer generated map (above) of clouds for August the 21st paint a somewhat troublesome picture for parts of the US along the path of totality. My home state of Missouri looks to be especially problematic and I can just imagine the chaos as tens of thousands of cars all scramble in a mad dash to catch was will be about a two minute event. And to make things even more interesting, it'll be getting rather dark for them too!

Monday, August 7, 2017

August 21, 2017 weather for the eclipse of the sun!

Latest computer generated cloud forecast!
Forsyth MO - Slowly but with gaining momentum, people all over are talking about the coming solar eclipse where millions will have a chance to experience totality. And sure, even though the 'event' last for just a span of minutes, that won't stop people from driving long distances to experience this rare solar phenomena.

Where, I reside in Forsyth Missouri in Taney County, we will get some bang for the buck as the sun will become up to 90% obscured sometime around 11:43 AM'ish on an otherwise plain Jane Monday in August. And while I am retired and could easily drive a hundred or so miles to catch a complete eclipse, I've chosen to content myself with what I could see from my current location. To that end, I purchased a 5-Pack Premium ISO and CE Certified Lunt Solar Eclipse Glasses that cost about thirteen dollars. I plan to pass out the other 4 to a friend so that she and her kids can also enjoy the fun.

But, as it often the case, there is a potential fly in the cosmic ointment! If the morning of the event happens to be cloudy or even hazy, this whole deal could be a bust. To that end, I will be selecting four sites that could be reached by car when given a day or so notice. The map, at right, shows some locales that will experience a complete eclipse. I have chosen the following cities that I will keep track of in the days leading up to the event on the 21st. They are; Sedalia, Jefferson City, Columbia and Cuba. All of which lie in Missouri and are reachable by automobiles. The best location of the bunch would be Columbia as it lies smack dab in the center of the swath of totality! I will be update the expected cloud coverage (or hopefully lack of it) beginning a week before the event on August the 14th. My updates will be posted at

When planning to view the eclipse, being flexible and ready to move out to a better and clearer sky may be a plus. NASA has an interactive map that can serve as an aid to planning locations and to knowing exact times that the eclipse will begin and end.... Also, note that the next time an event on this scale will not occur until 2024 & 2045... The one in 2024 will be within easy driving distance from places like Branson and Forsyth!
April 8, 2024 - See article
August 12,2045

Latest August 21 Eclipse Update: 
During the window between noon and 2 pm, we expect the majority of the local area to see partly cloudy skies with some occasional high cirrus clouds and some cumulus clouds developing by midday or early afternoon. At the time of the peak of the eclipse, we have about a 10 to 20 percent chance of a pop up shower or storm. Temperatures will top out around the lower 90s today but during the eclipse we may see a brief drop or lag in temperature climb. We wouldn't be surprised to see some weather stations across central Missouri and eastern Ozarks drop several degrees by 1 pm.

Make sure to use only approved viewing equipment - Click here for a list!

See also:

Eclipse Phenomena: What to Watch For