Saturday, September 24, 2016

Work week #4 for the Taney County area!

Beginning with Sunday, September 25, a weird little swirl of a disturbance, (aka a trough) will lift out into the Upper Midwest coming towards the Taney County area.. and will then split in two! One part will close off and head over to to northern Mexico where it will begin to move westward! The other portion of energy aloft will from a frontal boundary and will slam on through the area by by early Sunday morning. This will trigger some shower activity both in front of and after the passage overhead. Expect some showers to linger through Monday morning. On a good note, the passage of the front will herald in much cooler and drier air into the region. Both Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the coolest days with morning lows approaching the mid 40's in some spots!

Then, you guessed it, by Thursday another high pressure ridge will re-establish itself with temps back in the 80's by weeks end!

The dry and mild pattern will continue through the weekend as the upper level low out east produces a northerly or northwesterly flow through Sunday. As the low exits stage right, an upper level ridge will begin to build in allowing for temperatures to warm slightly into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Globals are in somewhat better agreement in terms of what is expected with the approaching cold front and parent upper level trough next week. Both GFS and ECMWF agree on the more progressive pattern, which should limit rainfall. This package has rainfall amounts a bit lower than previous forecasts. Only subtle differences in timing exist with ECMWF bringing the front through early Thursday vs GFS, which brings the front through Wednesday afternoon.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Taney County work week #3!

A large ridge of high pressure will build across the nation's midsection through most of the work week. This will bring an extended period of warm and dry weather. Look for temperatures to warm well into the 80's on an afternoon basis through Friday. Overnight lows in the 60's will be common.

It's possible rain chances will finally increase next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF suggest a long wave trough impacting the central conus. These two solutions are different regarding the positioning
of this system, but very similar in suggesting a closed off low structure.

Either way, it appears as though much cooler temperatures and rain chances are on the way in the extended periods, which should continue into the following work week (8 to 10 days from now).

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Is an Ice Age on our doorstep?

During a period in the World's history known as the 'Little Ice Age', the European continent experienced a roughly 500 year long period of wildly unstable weather. Starting around 1300 AD and ending in the early 1800's, a series of droughts, flooding rains, hot summers followed by intensely cold winters played havoc on hundreds of thousands of peasants who lived on the brink of starvation even in the best of times! It was during that period of time that early astronomers noticed that the sun was going through a very long period of time with few if any sunspots visible. The term Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", was coined for the period starting in about 1645 and continuing to about 1715 when sunspots became exceedingly rare. And while the records from that time are scattered, some scientists such as Professor V. Zharkova of Northumbria University believe that such extended periods of inactivity, similar to the more recent 'Dalton Minimum', that come as part of a long term solar cycle may be happening again! Dr. Zharkova has even gone as far as to predict another 'ice age' starting as early as 2020!

While many scoff at such a zany prediction, others are taking her thinking more seriously. They point to the fact that the warmth of recent centuries form just a brief respite in the larger scope of a planet that has been more often frozen than not. They also point to the fact that the sun has been acting very strangely for a number of years now; exhibiting behavior that is way outside of the norm! As of this post, we are currently more than seven years into Solar Cycle 24 and it appears the solar maximum of this cycle was reached in April 2014 during a spike in activity. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase.whether that is truly significant, only time will tell.

In any case, weather watchers will be keeping a close eye on how things shake out starting with the coming winter of 2017-18!

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Taney County work week #2!

After a benign start to the second work week of September 2016, convective chances will continue on Wednesday/Wednesday night as weak energy pushes through the region and the weak front remains
positioned across the region. A more pronounced shortwave will move into the area on Thursday and we should have a much better chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire area. Severe
storm chances look weak at this point with weak instability and shear in the mix.

A stronger cold front will begin to push into the area on Saturday with the best convective chances on Friday into Friday night ahead of the front. Another cooler/drier air mass will work into the area then for Saturday night into Sunday.

This air mass will be more short-lived than the previous one which moved into the region last weekend as the southwest flow aloft quickly reestablishes itself across the region.

It's going to be a great weekend over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures today and Sunday afternoons will warm into the low 80's, under a mix of sun and clouds.

The rainfall for the most part is over, however, cyclonic flow aloft will continue bringing a rogue chance for a shower or two somewhere. Therefore we will keep pops on the low side through the weekend. Overnight lows will drop into the 60s.

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Taney County September work week one!

Look for increasing clouds...
The start of the first work week in September will begin with southwesterly upper level flow around a high pressure area that should remain centered to our south. Global forecasts are pinging a shear axis developing from the four corners region into the central plains by late week. This will help develop several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region from mid to late week. Also, we'll have to watch moisture from then remnant Hurricane Newton that will likely get caught in the southwestern flow from the Desert Southwest region.

A cold frontal boundary will eventually drop southward out of Canada by this weekend and push through the region by late Saturday or early Sunday. We'll need to watch out ahead of this front and parent trough as 0-6km shear and instability begin to increase later in the day Friday. This may be enough for at least a conditional severe weather threat.

In addition to the possibility of severe weather, rainfall amounts look to be around 1-3 inches with the higher values along and north of the I44 corridor. This may present at least a limited flooding threat, especially for those locations that receive multiple rounds of storms. Temperatures during this time will be warm, however, with increasing rain chances, temps will be kept down a bit more each day as we progress through the week. Posted for!

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Wx for the first full work week in September!

Taney County MO - A rather boring slug of weather coming our way, but sort of nice also. Look for southerly surface winds and warmer temperatures from Monday, (Labor Day) on into the middle of next week. There will exist some small chances for rain during this time due to a broad weak southwest upper level flow pattern, but for now we are only prognosticating somewhat higher chances for rain for Wednesday. Afternoon heat index values in the mid 90's will be possible for some areas Mon-Wed. So, get out and enjoy! Things will be going pretty much down hill from here on out! Created especially for