Thursday, December 20, 2018

Winter Storm arriving Dec 26?

It was December the 20th, and on this date, the NWS was beginning to take notice of a very large and intense low pressure system that was currently located off in the Pacific. No one was sure, at the time, as to the track or impact that this system might have on Midwestern states around December the 26th! At the time, all three computer models were in agreement that there was going to be some sort of weather related impact! I planned to track the progress of this low to see what it does...

Dec 20 - While it was windy in the center part of the Midwest,  low pressure system was still slowly approaching the West Coast on Thursday.

 Dec 21 - There was still a large amount of uncertainty as the the track of this large storm. On model, the GFS (Global Forecast System - One of the operational forecast models run at NCEP. The GFS is run four times daily, with forecast output out to 384 hours) sees the system running a southerly track while the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Operational references in forecast discussions typically refer to the ECMWF's medium-range numerical forecast model, which runs out to 10 days) is calling for a more northerly run. We could see rain with one and snow with the other. Stay turned.

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Mid month temps looks to be above average!

Taney County MO. - The middle of December is generally a pretty tame period of time, weather wise. And, just as the averages of the last four years show in the graphic above SW MO to be a little warmer than average, this December seems to be following a slightly cooler which is also a more normal track.

Then, looking at the projected average temps for the middle of the month (see graphic at right), show every indication that we will be following well above the 30 year historical average of 35°F. As of Dec 17 we were 7 degrees above the average, as measured at the Forsyth MO location.

And, as of the 17th, there were no indicators pointing to any severe winter weather during the remainder of that period of time.

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Early December storm could pose travel problems!

Friday Dec 7 and Saturday Dec 8 Wx maps
 Taney County MOFrom a "classic" heavy snowfall standpoint for the Missouri Ozarks, there are some large concerns when slicing and dicing the global Models. Even a small shift in the track of the center of low pressure will result in very large changes in what could occur over southern Missouri. That said, the NWS will be issuing a Winter Storm Watch  for far southern Missouri.

 Accumulations of snow from 3 to 6 inches (and more) are possible with some icing occurring in the SW corner of the state. Bottom line! Stay glued to local media weather outlets as we get closer to the weekend!

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Below normal temps over the weekend of Dec 7th!

Forecast highs and lows
Taney County, Mo.- Everyone should maybe to try and take advantage of Wednesday's brief warm up! With temps in the low 50's on that day, it could be a good time to get in some groceries, gas up the car and maybe stoke the old furnace. The temperatures outdoor will be taking a bit of a dive, beginning on Thursday, with a winter storm threatening to swing by late Friday into Saturday! Compared to the average of 35 degrees, these next five days will all be well below that number! In addition, winds out of the NW could affect the wind chill readings! Adding those to the chance of a snowfall that could stick on the ground for awhile and you have a recipe for some potential winter problems cropping up if you're not prepared!

Snow chances increasing for weekend!

Fri-Sat Winter forecast: All weather eyes will likely be on the coming weekend as a rather powerful system could impact the region. At this time, it looks like colder air aloft will turn most of the precipitation into snow with accumulating snow expected with higher amounts over southern Missouri, including Taney County. Potential accumulations of up to 4 inches are possible along the MO/AR border. This forecast is likely to change right up to Friday night, so stay tuned to weather outlets, if you will be traveling.

Monday, December 3, 2018

Snow a possibility for Dec 7-8!

Taney County, MO. - Sometime in the Friday, Dec 7 to Saturday, Dec 8 date ranges; a strong low pressure system is forecast to move through the southern and central Missouri region. Given the forecast temperatures for those days will be close to or below the freezing mark, any precipitation that falls on the north side will likely be in the form of snow.

As this forecast date was still some ways off, as of this post, computer models were in disagreement as to exactly where the north region was going to be. That said, it's a good idea to be weather aware as we approach the weekend!

Sunday, December 2, 2018

Monster winter storm targets the Midwest!

Fictional Account: In what has now been termed the Storm of the Century, a number of factors came together to result in the stranding of tens of thousands of Missouri residents!

On the evening of December the 17th, a low pressure system transited across the gulf states throwing up moisture laden air into the center of the United States. This air slammed into a arctic vortex that barreled down from northern Canada. Boasting temperatures in the low teens, the super chilled air travel quickly over a fresh snow pack that cover the northern tier of states. These two forces coming together, resulted in hurricane force winds that carried a mixture of sleet and snow. Before the dawn of the next day, snow amounts were in excess of 13 inches in some locales with eight foot drifts that closed many key arteries. Power outages were widespread.

In the southwest portion of the state, cities like Branson were also treated to a horrific ice storm that coated trees, bridges and power cables. Reports of downed power lines were so numerous, that a State of Emergency was announced by the Governor's Office. Thousands were without power and also could not travel due to treacherous road conditions as of Tuesday, December 18. The National Weather Service then announced the approach of an even larger system that was forecast to arrive over the weekend.

While this piece was just a flight of fancy, such a storm could happen sometime in the future. Everyone, then, should take sensible steps to insure they have some of the following:

Have a Weather radio on hand that is turned on all the time.
Have enough food to last at least a week.
Have an auxiliary source of heat or generator.
Get a check up for your vehicle or vehicles. Be winter ready!
Have a get out of Dodge plan to move out of a severe winter storms path.

Saturday, December 1, 2018

December week 1-7 temps!

The projected average temps for the first week of December show us starting out warmer than normal, but then quickly diving down into the 'average' territory of 35 degrees.  Next Friday and Saturday look to be the best of the bunch. Then beginning with Sunday Dec 7, things look to chill down a bit...