Saturday, August 18, 2012

Long range forecast for the winter of 2012-13!

The long range forecasts for the coming winter of 2012-13 are now beginning to trickle in with some climatologists forecasting a 'wild mix' all across the continental United States. As the map from AccuWeather above shows, the mixed bag of ice and snow over the Midwest could prove a challenge for many of us residing in southwest Missouri.

One of the major climate players that will dictate what type of winter we will experience will be the continued development (or not) of  El Nina, or warming waters off the west coast of South America. Right now (August 2012) the predictions are running about 70% in favor of a shift from neutral to a more enhanced ENSO (El Nina Southern Oscillation). That factor in conjunction with future trends for the Arctic Oscillation (AO), increased volcanism (increased atmospheric ash) and or reduce solar output could radically affect the coming cold season for many either in a positive or negative manner.

Also, see my latest update written in October. 

More to come as we get closer to December…

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