Finally, some winter style weather!

Taney County, MO – It was looking like area residents in southwest Missouri might finally see some winter-styled action after enjoying temperatures that were pretty far above the normal, for this time of year! As it now stands, sometime on Friday, January the 10^th, a strong frontal system will move into our area in conjunction with a robust up-welling of moist air from the gulf. The heaviest rainfall should occur from Friday afternoon on through the evening hours. At this time, the front will likely shift from west to east thereby crossing the country-wide area. As it passes on through. during the late evening hours, cold air will begin to push its way on the backside. Then, perhaps as we get into the wee hours of Saturday and on into the day, some southwest Missouri residents may expect potentially all forms of wintry precipitation; from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to grapnel and then to snow. Just who gets what will depend on where you happen to be standing, but I'd wager that most of Taney County will experience the event as one of moderate rain with a transition to some light snow late Saturday evening. Those living up further north by Springfield or off to the east by West Plains will likely get their own mix.

The real concern will be in just how much water falls where! With amounts ranging from perhaps a half inch to over four inches, everyone in flood prone areas needs to hang close to their weather radios or to televised media outlets throughout the day on Saturday. [www.taneyweather.com]

Snow in October

Forsyth MO. - It was late October, but I sort of felt that was a tad early for the National Weather Service to be talking about the chances for snow;

Staggering differences in model solutions remain during the
Tuesday through Friday time frame, but all global models indicate a
strong surge of cold air between Wednesday and Thursday. Thus,
that will be the message of the forecast; and not the potential
for measurable snow. The GFS remains the most progressive with
the upper-level shortwave and the surge of cold air, as a
TROWAL/deformation axis develops over central Missouri
Wednesday/Thursday with banded measurable snow. On the other hand,
the CMC and ECMWF offer much slower solutions with the upper-
level pattern, suggesting a warm and rainy Wednesday/Thursday.
These latter models then bring the cold air in Thursday/Friday
with a prevalent dry slot, thus, limiting snow chances.

For now, we have gone with our model blend for temperatures and
precip type from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will exhibit highs in the 40s and lows in the 30's.
Then, Thursday and Friday will feature highs in the 40's and lows
in the 20s. Right now, we aren't mentioning more than a 0.5" of
snow across our area for next week.

Whatever does happen, it looks like many of us, living in Taney County Missouri, will be getting a does of some winter like temperatures. A trend that looks to continue right on into early November....

Here's the forecast map for Monday,  Oct 28 - That don't look very good to me...

March 2 2019 Snow event!

Taney County Mo. - It was a Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 and the NWS was calling for snow to fall across much of southwest Missouri. As in all such cases, a lot of guesswork was out there concerning precipitation forms (wet versus frozen), types (rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow) and overall amounts. The current thinking for Taney County Missouri was for about two inches of snow with the start late in the day as any rain or drizzle that existed would change over snow.

As per the 5:38 AM dialog, the NWS stated;  'The upper level trough (area of low pressure) will help deepen a surface low over west Texas later today before moving across the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight and Sunday. Moisture will be pulled up and over the system and interact with the cold air mass overspreading much of the central U.S.' This setup did portend that snow would fall, with exactly how much and of what forms still to be determined. (Unfortunately, that left evening commuters pretty much clueless). Following are 'updates' that I planned to make beginning later in the afternoon. These would be intended for the immediate area around Forsyth and would likely not be representative of the rest of Taney County! My updates will look something like this:

 

9:46 AM - Sky was overcast with no forms of precipitation. The apparent snow in the radar at right is 'virga' - precip that is not making it to the ground.

www.taneyweather.com

See? Easy peasey. I also intended to insert comments at any times where I saw or heard about any significant events happening. So, stay turned. The weather 'action' should begin much later today and overnight. This could be a pretty late event, but I planned to be vigilant.

12:30 PM - The outdoor temps had shown a trend downwards (.17° per hour). Winds were also veering towards the north. Nothing really that major. And, as it turned out everything more or less stabilized after the 1PM hour.

1:40 PM - At this hour, the freezing line was still off to the northwest. I was making a guess that it would be after 6PM before it made its way into the Taney County area. Also, I noted the light and variable nature of the winds.

5:00 PM - Latest forecast from the Weather Service is zeroing in on a 3AM to 9AM period when snow might impact area traffic in and around Taney County.I'll set my alarm clock for an early start Sunday!

10:30 PM - The radar was showing echos from the west. Snow, virga or what? Going to sleep and will try and awake at about 3AM. Late night folks can track the event at www.taneyweather.com!

5:10 AM - Pretty much a blown forecast, that is, if we don't get some snow off the back side of the system which was making fast tracks off to the east. I did note a bit of ice on an exposed railing. There were also some indications of a band of snow approaching from the west.


5:45 AM - If that snow that is indicated on the left and which is approaching fairly quickly is the real thing, I'm thinking it will hit just in time for the morning rush for church!

6:20 AM - Observed snow falling. I did not feel that the event was going to last very long, however.

In the graphic, at left, you can see that the snow band was fairly thin. For a live link to the 76 Strip in Branson click here.

So, that pretty much is a wrap for this winter season as we will be warming up by mid week. The next stormy weather was shaping up to hit late in the work week and should be i n the form of some rain and thunder.

Jan 14 snow day!

So, we have us some freezing temps, snow and slick roads. Hey! What's not to like! A January 14, 2018 short look at someplace near Forsyth MO. Just the kind of day to hang out in bed, with a cup of warm coco watching TV!

But, stay tuned for even more winter zaniness as temperatures are forecast to really bottom out on Tuesday, January the 16th!

 www.taneyweather.com

Friday, December 23 weather hazards!

Taney County MO. – Normally I leave the guess work as to the weather forecast for the professionals. However, the setup for Friday, December the 23^rd has gotten my interest.

The setup for problems will begin on Friday, in the predawn hours, as what is known as isentropic upglide develops due to a warm front moving towards us. For those who are not familiar with the term, it refers to the fact that warm air resists undercutting the cold air that will be in place. The warm, less dense air rises gradually in vertically as it overrides the sloping cold dense air (less potential temperature air). It must do this to stay at the same potential temperature (same relative density). This is why warm fronts tend to bring widespread light to moderate precipitation. Please see the diagram below:

So, warm and moist air aloft with colder air at around 30 degree near the surface. Any moisture that falls through such a zone will sometimes turn into snow, sleet or freezing rain depending on just how deep the cold layer is at any given location. Note that this will be more of a probability in higher locations and areas to the east of Hwy 65! Whatever happens, this should be a rather short-lived deal as it should warm up above freezing shortly after sunrise. What area motorists will want to track, however, is the possibility of a few sloping roads and some bridges getting a thin glaze of ice – possibly just enough to pose a hazard to a few early commuters! www.taneyservices.com

How about a nice late winter assault?

After what was a very promising trend in warming temperatures, my hopes of planting out some veggies has been thwarted by a late winter season blast from our friend to the north! The National Weather Service is calling for a mixed bag of most all the nasties that can be thrown at us including; severe storms, high winds, rain, sleet and frost as a strong front sweeps through the area overnight on Sunday, the 13^th of April! Note that the graph of temps has been replaced with one accurate through the 27th!

Fortunately, I don't have much planted outside and am thinking that some rainfall would not be all that bad as my area in southwestern Missouri is a number of inches behind the average!

Update: As is evidenced by the graph, things moderated quite a bit in the later parts of the month! Now, as we are approaching the last days of April, a minor cool down is forecast with highs at around 55F to 60F and lows in the upper thirties. This will be cold enough that I may have to cover some of the more tender vegetable starts that were planted out over the past week! Right at the 28th of the month, we are running about 2 degrees warmer than normal with three inches of rainfall.