Powersite dam March 22, 2020 March is a month where much southwest Missouri sees many climate associated changes. The azimuth of the sun arcs high and higher in the sky and the temperature regime changes rapidly from a winter style profile to a much warmer spring type feeling. It’s truly a month of rapid change! For 2021, I was hoping not to see a repeat of the year before. March 2020, not only saw extensive flooding in area parks, in and around Forsyth Missouri, but also that year witnessed the acceleration of the Covid virus. From a pure weather perspective, the month was relatively benign with an average temperature of 53.6°F versus the normal average of 45.5°. Where it did show an excess was in the amount of rain fall we had. I recorded a total of 7.67 inches versus a ‘normal’ for the month of 4.53” (I used date from the NWS site at West Plains, Mo for this).

River Run Park March 22, 2020. Bull Shoals at 669.25′ By the 19th of that month, water levels in Bull Shoals began to rise fairly rapidly. And, at first I wasn’t sure why that would be. After all a few extra inches of rain shouldn’t make that big of an impact, right? Sure, but for two facts that happened; 1) the upper of the three reservoirs, Beaver Lake was about seven feet higher than normal coming into the month and 2) rains that did fall generally impacted a very large cross section of southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. These two facts combined in a synergistic fashion to force the Corps of Engineers to begin releasing large amounts of water early on in the season (see photo at top). The question remain, for 2021, as to what will transpire. Note: All weather data was taken from my personal weather station located at www.taneyweather.com. Copies of the month of March 2020 are available by writing me at Forsythkid@gmail.com.

Four months of Weather. Page 1.

Note: to view properly, click on image the right click again on the image and choose view image! Note that any links won't work as this is a 'jpeg' image.

Will early March Wx see improvements? Probably not!

So, while we all enjoy a mini-dry spell for a day or two, there exists more chances for rain along about mid week. Confidence was increasing in seeing shortwave energy sweeping through Tuesday night thru Thursday. It is anticipated this will bring chances for light rain across the region throughout the day on Wednesday. However, with the intrusion of colder air late Wednesday night into Thursday, the concern becomes the possibility of seeing mixed wintry precipitation, (most of which is likely to fall north of the I-44 corridor). Otherwise light rain all around. meh

Then, as we edge on out of February and into the first weekend of March 2019, another frontal system will take aim at the region by Friday (March 1) as a warm front lifts north across the region.

While the models continue to vary on solutions, it does appear there is a potential for some instability getting into Missouri and will be something to keep an eye on. This system is quickly overcome by a much stronger intrusion of high pressure and colder temperatures. Highs next Saturday through early next week look to only top out in the 30s with lows in the teens/lower 20s across the region. Current models suggest a few chances of seeing light snow to go along with the below average temperatures next weekend. Double meh

www.taneyweather.com

First ten days in January 2019 looking good!

Forsyth MO - I hope everyone survived New Years Day intact! I was recovering from a hard cold and so was oblivious to most everything that was going on. Sorry about that. But, as a gift, I've contacted the head Weather Honcho up in there in the sky and was able to get us a WINTER RESPITE! Yes, things will be going our way for the first ten days of the year!

As you can see in the forecast graphic above, we will be considerably up above the temperature norms for a good stretch of time. See more at www.taneyweather.com!

Taney County weather week three including Thanksgiving!

TUESDAY - THANKSGIVING

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Tuesday with short wave energy digging southeast across the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this wave will quickly move southeast

across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from late this morning into this afternoon.

The 00Z GFS spits out some light QPF with this front late this morning and early this afternoon, however inspection of forecast soundings indicates that the low levels will be too dry to support a mention of rain showers. We will see quite a bit of cloud cover today, especially in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The passing front and cloud cover make high temperatures a tough call today. We are getting a fairly warm start this morning with most areas in the 40's. We should therefore be able to warm into the middle to upper 50's for highs. It should be noted that temperatures may actually steady off or even begin to fall behind that front north of the Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then build south across Kansas into northern Oklahoma Tuesday late. It looks like a rather chilly night under clear skies with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s.

With that high remaining west of the region, we will maintain a north wind overnight in the 5-10 mph range. This will drop wind chills into the middle and upper teens. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist with occasional short wave energy diving southeast in the flow. These passing short waves will do nothing more than drag dry cold fronts through the region every three to four days. This will bode well for anyone with travel plans across the region from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

As you would expect, temperatures will fluctuate in this type of pattern. We will see a nice warming trend starting on Thanksgiving with highs warming well into 50's. Highs in the 60's are then expected for Friday before temperatures cool back down a bit for next weekend.

Taney County weather forecast for November 6 - 10!

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY

This from the National Weather Service -

'Ultimately there doesn't appear to be much excitement in the forecast through the next seven days.' I was going to head over to Fresno, but there wasn't much going on over there either...

A cooler air mass will spread into the area behind a weekend front as highs only in the 50's occur. An upper level disturbance will likely spread across the area Monday afternoon/night and will bring additional chances for showers to the area, with the better potential generally south of I-44.

This rather boring scenario (abet with no rainfall) will be followed with highs only in the 40's Tuesday and Wednesday. [Might be getting time for me to hibernate]!

THURSDAY ON

Another upper level disturbance will move through the area during the middle and end of the week and bring additional rain chances with their passage. OK, so this sort of nonsense will not be an all week rain event, but rain will be possible at times.

Temperatures will warm back into the 50's for the end of the week into next weekend. Really?

Taney County Wx - October week one!

MONDAY

Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through midweek as those southeasterly winds persist. The best moisture advection will actually occur across the southern and then central Plains as a surface ridge axis remains planted across the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, a northeast to southwest oriented frontal boundary will become established from the western Great Lakes into the Corn Belt and then southern Plains from Monday night into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should develop to our northwest along that front and in closer vicinity to short wave energy tracking northeast within the southwesterly flow aloft. [Yawn...]

TUESDAY

Models all have showers/thunder breaking out across the area this morning. PW values will significantly increase across the forecast area today with most locations rising to around 1.6 to 1.9 in. The cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms will hold down warming today into the mid 70's to around 80. Upper level energy over the northern plains will shift east along the U.S. Canada border

tonight and will help to flatten out the ridge in the eastern U.S. This will help to set up the best moisture axis in a southwest to northeast fashion with the highest PW values setting up over our

northwestern CWA. The best chances of rain will be over our northwestern CWA tonight. Lows tonight will be quite mild in the low to mid 60's. [Me picking up some interest]...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY

The large scale pattern then becomes somewhat interesting as we head into the Wednesday through Thursday night time frame. Models are in good agreement that we will see a confluent mid and

upper level flow develop from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will be supportive of that front leaning over and becoming west to east oriented somewhere

across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. This setup can be a heavy rain producer. We will keep close tabs on this potential. The good news is that we need the rainfall. Thus, we could stand to pick up a few inches (or even more) without any worries of excessive runoff.

FRIDAY....

Global models then become divergent as we get into late this week. There is some loose consensus that the convergent flow will break down and an upper level trough will eject out of the western United States. However, impacts on sensible weather are a tough call out that far.

In term of temperatures, we will see a downward trend throughout the work week as clouds and precipitation become bigger players. The eventual position of that front will also come into play from

mid to late week.

SATURDAY

Widespread light rainfall over the entire area during the day, but by Saturday evening, all precipitation will have shifted east of the Ozarks, bringing a very pleasant evening for the region. Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the low to mid 50's.

 SUNDAY

Southwest flow aloft quickly re-establishes itself on Sunday bringing surface temperatures back into the 80s. Dew points in the 50's and low 60's will make conditions feel less humid than what we've experienced over the past couple weeks. See more at www.taneyweather.com!

Taney County Work Week 3!

MONDAY

For Monday, the best rain chances look to be from southeast Kansas into central Missouri (Taney County will once again miss the boat), with lesser amounts as you you head south. Given clouds and rainfall potential instability looks rather meager for any severe weather threat at this time. Highs will be warmest along the Arkansas border with readings in the middle 80's, tapering off to the middle 70's in central Missouri.

For Monday night, low level jet re-establishes itself across Kansas, with the jet then nosing into northeast Kansas late. Storms will be possible again in the vicinity of the jet across mainly Kansas and into northern Missouri. However, cannot rule out some isolated activity further south and east of the area in broad warm advection regime. Will keep lower end probabilities going given flow pattern. Lows will drop into the middle 60's.

TUESDAY

Vigorous trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, while zonal to slightly southwesterly flow continues across the local area. With ample sunshine could see some isolated showers/storms develop, which should diminish by Tuesday night. Pressure gradient tightens and will likely see breezy and warm conditions, with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 80's.

WEDNESDAY

For Wednesday through Sunday, highly amplified pattern will persist across the conus with a long wave trough across the west and strong ridging east. The forecast area will be between these two system, with more influence from the ridge. At this point it looks sadly like mainly a dry pattern for the most part, with most of the widespread precipitation chances remaining well to our west. However we will be on the edge of the deeper southwesterly flow so cannot rule out precipitation chances from time to time. Temperatures look to remain above normal through the period with the warmest days looking to be Wednesday and Thursday.

FRIDAY - WEEKEND

The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

 www.taneyweather.com

Weather for Taney Country last week of August 2017!

SUNDAY - MONDAY

An area of disturbance will spread south towards the area today, then will move through the area tonight into Monday.

As the trough moves south Sunday, an associated cold front will move through the area. Scattered showers and storms should be able to develop along the front, especially north of I-44 as instability increases with the heating of the day. As the front moves south of I-44 tonight into Monday coverage should decrease but a few showers/storms will remain possible.

As instability increases Monday afternoon and evening a few strong storms will be possible, again mainly north of I-44. The main risk will be winds in excess of 50 mph and hail to the size of nickels in a few of the strongest storms.

Highs this Sunday afternoon should be able to top out in the lower to middle 80's as highs in the lower 80's are expected on Sunday. An upper level ridge will remain across the western CONUS through much of the week leaving the area in a northwest flow upper level pattern. This will keep the below normal conditions in place across the area as highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's occur each afternoon.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY

At this time we do not expect much in way of rain behind the front Tuesday through Thursday. Late this week into the weekend we may see moisture from the remnants of Harvey try to spread north into area. This could bring some rain chances to the area but confidence is low in the track of the system and medium range models remain inconsistent from run to run and each other.

TD "Harvey" will then track across northern Mississippi on Thursday and western Tennessee Thursday night. Almost all of the precipitation will remain southeast of the CWA, but up to a quarter inch may affect the far southeast portion of Oregon county.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND

The upcoming holiday weekend looks to be dry across the area with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on Friday, but warming back to more normal readings in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday in the wake of the tropical system.

A cold front is forecast to push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning which will bring the next chance of showers/thunderstorms to the region from the northwest. This will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Tuesday into the middle of next week.

Work week #3 in Taney County MO!

MONDAY - FRIDAY

It's a HEAT WAVE!! A high pressure dome will edge closer to the area each day this week. This will shut off any precipitation potential and send high temps into the middle to upper 90's. Have trended temps up a degree or two given such a strong mid level high which looks to come right over us on Thursday and Friday, thus these two days will be the hottest.

Heat indicies will range from 100-110 this week with the highest heat indices Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that Heat Advisories will be needed by mid week. Those with heat sensitives, outdoor workers and those without air conditioning will need to prepare for the heat this week. No precipitation is expected this week given this regime.

Work week 4 for Taney County!

MONDAY - MEMORIAL DAY

Some relief is on the way as a surface high will remain in control of the region's weather through Memorial Day with temperatures around 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overall, Monday looks to be a great day for outdoor activities.

TUESDAY

The upper level flow for Tuesday looks to be northwesterly. This is in response to a ridge that builds just east of the Rockies. Several reinforcing surface highs will slide out of Canada and across the Plains which should help to keep rain chances limited. A persistent cut-off upper low over the Great Lakes may swing pieces of energy through the upper level flow and bring slight chances for showers and storms between the surface highs in the form of weak cold fronts. None of this activity looks severe at this time.

WEDNESDAY

As we head into this afternoon and early this evening, low level convergence and temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s will likely initiate more scattered thunderstorms from northeastern Kansas into central Missouri. We may then see widely scattered thunderstorm activity begin to shift towards the U.S. 60 corridor in the evening as cold pools become established and that

low level jet begins to redevelop.

The setup for large hail looks good today given steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate deep layer shear, and good CAPE/speed shear in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 Celsius layer). Inspection of

forecast soundings also indicates quite a few matches for large hail with the SARS Sounding Analogue System. With support from indices such as the Large Hail Parameter, we will include a mention of ping pong ball sized hail in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Given steep low level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases, damaging straight line winds also appear possible in areas where cold pools conglomerate and we get bowing segments. At this time,

it appears that the greatest threat for severe storms this afternoon and this evening will be west of U.S. 65 and north of U.S. 60.

THURSDAY

Remnants of that MCS may then persist across portions of the central and eastern Missouri Ozarks Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances in the afternoon will then be dictated by convective outflow from morning storms and where that low level convergence zone ends up. Thursday night and early Friday then look fairly dry at this point.

FRIDAY - JUNE 3

Friday night into Sunday night, an upper level trough will dive south towards and into the region sending a front through the area. This will result in better widespread shower/storm chances across the region as better lift will occur.

WEEKEND

Behind the system surface high pressure and dry conditions will build over the area Sunday into early next week as highs warm into the 70s each afternoon during this time.... www.taneyservices.com

Taney County September work week one!

Look for increasing clouds...

The start of the first work week in September will begin with southwesterly upper level flow around a high pressure area that should remain centered to our south. Global forecasts are pinging a shear axis developing from the four corners region into the central plains by late week. This will help develop several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region from mid to late week. Also, we'll have to watch moisture from then remnant Hurricane Newton that will likely get caught in the southwestern flow from the Desert Southwest region.

A cold frontal boundary will eventually drop southward out of Canada by this weekend and push through the region by late Saturday or early Sunday. We'll need to watch out ahead of this front and parent trough as 0-6km shear and instability begin to increase later in the day Friday. This may be enough for at least a conditional severe weather threat.

In addition to the possibility of severe weather, rainfall amounts look to be around 1-3 inches with the higher values along and north of the I44 corridor. This may present at least a limited flooding threat, especially for those locations that receive multiple rounds of storms. Temperatures during this time will be warm, however, with increasing rain chances, temps will be kept down a bit more each day as we progress through the week. Posted for www.taneyservices.com!

The first freeze of the season is due on Saturday morning, Nov 1!

Last January snowstorm map

According to the National Weather Service, our first killing frost or freeze will hit southwestern Missouri long about November the 1^st! So, the month will likely enter in a chilly fashion. 

According to my personal weather records for the previous two years, 2013 got into cold temperatures early on and perhaps helped to set the stage for the brutal winter that was to come. Does anyone remember the term 'winter vortex'? That rather rare setup occurred last year and really plunged much of the nation into the meat locker over an extended period of time!

This year, the predictions for the winter of 2014-15 are all over the board. Some meteorologists see a mixed bag for much of the nation with southwest Missouri becoming colder and wetter than normal with more in the way of ice storms. I hope that one doesn't pan out.