Finally, some winter style weather!

Taney County, MO – It was looking like area residents in southwest Missouri might finally see some winter-styled action after enjoying temperatures that were pretty far above the normal, for this time of year! As it now stands, sometime on Friday, January the 10^th, a strong frontal system will move into our area in conjunction with a robust up-welling of moist air from the gulf. The heaviest rainfall should occur from Friday afternoon on through the evening hours. At this time, the front will likely shift from west to east thereby crossing the country-wide area. As it passes on through. during the late evening hours, cold air will begin to push its way on the backside. Then, perhaps as we get into the wee hours of Saturday and on into the day, some southwest Missouri residents may expect potentially all forms of wintry precipitation; from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to grapnel and then to snow. Just who gets what will depend on where you happen to be standing, but I'd wager that most of Taney County will experience the event as one of moderate rain with a transition to some light snow late Saturday evening. Those living up further north by Springfield or off to the east by West Plains will likely get their own mix.

The real concern will be in just how much water falls where! With amounts ranging from perhaps a half inch to over four inches, everyone in flood prone areas needs to hang close to their weather radios or to televised media outlets throughout the day on Saturday. [www.taneyweather.com]

Heavy rains set for Saturday, April 13!

Forsyth MO. - An active weather pattern looked posed to invade the Midwest with heavy rainfall set to impact much of southern Missouri and all of Arkansas!

Precipatible water amounts of 1 to 2 inches looked to fall on the watershed that surrounds the Tri-Lake set of reservoirs which are comprised of Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals lakes. Fortunately, all three bodies of waters were at or below normal full pool levels. And before anyone asks is this had been a cold or warm start to spring, I can say that we are about 5.5 degrees abov ethe 30 year average! www.taneyweather.com

Forecast for the Fourth of July 2016!

Taney County MO –This year, with the Fourth being on a Monday and all, a lot of us will have what amounts to a three day mini vacation holiday! Time to get that grill ready, the food purchased and a good location in the back yard or a park staked out! Now, if only the weather would play nice....

Well, the weather forecast will be a really good thing, as it turned out. It looked as though all the cloudy and icky weather is moving off stage right, leaving Taney County to bask in clearing, if somewhat cooler air, for the balance of the afternoon and into the evening hours.

So, enjoy already!

And gosh, right after the 4^th, everything will dry right up as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds itself in the region.... [www.taneyservices.com]

Heavy rains possible starting on Monday May 16!

Sometime around Sunday night May 15, Canadian high pressure will start to push east, with flow aloft becoming more zonal (west to east) in nature. A warm front will then start to move back north toward the region, with several rounds of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms across the area as the front approaches Monday. Computer model guidance then suggests that the front will stall out near the Missouri/Arkansas state line by late Monday night, with several shortwaves interacting with it through Tuesday night. This would likely result in several rounds of rain and elevated convection, though much will depend on the final frontal position. So stay tuned to your local media outlets and bring a weather radio with you if you're out in a boat or camping.

By the tail end of the forecast period, guidance is in general agreement in pushing the front south, with high pressure (and drier conditions) nosing in for a few days [www.taneyservices.com]. Source: NWS SGF

Update: Sunday, May 15 -This from the NWS (some excerpting by me):

'Precipitation chances will increase from the west this evening and especially overnight, as isentropic ascent (the lifting of air that is traveling along an upward-sloping surface) increases ahead/north of a slow moving warm front. Precipitation should initially be in the form of fairly light rain showers, with more substantial rain and a few embedded thunderstorms developing towards early Monday morning.'

While widespread rainfall is expected, amounts will be limited to a half inch through Monday afternoon as instability to remain virtually non existent due to poor lapse rates and lack of supporting kinematics.

SEVERE WX CHANCES: Tuesday: If the surface warm front remains just south of the area as currently expected, that should mitigate the severe weather threat considerably, though it's possible that a stray severe storm could begin within the warm sector of this system and wander along or north of the front for a time. Otherwise the threat for Taney County would be the increasing chances for some heavy rains!

Bottom line: The rains, she is a coming round the bend!

Update: Monday, May 16 - Ah, Mother Nature is a fickle bitch! After much hoopla, it now appears as though most of the rain action will be sweeping across the Missouri state north of the I-44 corridor. Other factors also indicate that along with a slower than expected start, there will be a quicker than thought end to this system such that it will all be over sometime Tuesday!

New bottom line: That rain is a going round someone else's bend!

Update: Tuesday, May 17 - By the morning hours, it looked as though things were winding down with the storm center moving off to the east. And, as the graphic at right shows, the center part of the Missouri state got the largest amounts of rainfall! That was fine with me as that was exactly the area that had been most impacted by the recent mini drought conditions! And, not to worry, we have yet another rain system coming our way on Wednesday, May the 18th!