Monday, December 25, 2017

Christmas work week forecast!


A cloudy yet quiet day with the high temperature only in the mid 30's. Monday will likely be the warmest day of the work week! Hoping everyone has a safe and a Merry Christmas!


Chilly northeast breezes continues tomorrow as highs only make it into the upper 20s and lower 30s. A couple flurries are not out of the question, but certainly no accumulations.


Another upper level wave will pass overhead on Thursday. Models are not showing much QPF with this system either, although we could see more flurries with Thursday's wave.


Friday will be the "warm" day of the week before another surge of cold air begins to move in Friday night. Bitter cold will be the main highlights of the forecast for the weekend and New Years Day before temperatures moderate somewhat by midweek. Some very light snow or flurries will be possible at times this weekend. Temperatures will moderate a little with some s-se winds. Some highs in the low 40's may be possible in our southern MO counties with 30's elsewhere. So, some of you might want to go shinny dipping in your local pond....


A bitter arctic air mass will settle in over the region for this period. As the cold air first comes in, we
could see some frontogenetically induced flurries/light snow late Fri night into Sat. Nothing major. However, given the high snow:liquid ratios it won't take much to get a light accumulation.
Guidance is also showing some upglide into southern MO into cold air dome late Sat night into Sunday morning. Again, a light fluffy accumulation (< 1 inch) is in the grids for parts of southern MO. There is fairly low confidence in this right now. We certainly aren't looking at a big snow dumper during this forecast period, but any flurries and light accumulating snow will just add insult to injury given how cold it will be.

Forecast guidance which had been quite variable as far as temperatures are concerned are now finding some middle ground. The coldest period looks to be Sunday through Monday night. Some below zero temperatures are expected for early New Year's morning.


Some weak moderation in temperature is expected Tuesday as the center of the cold sfc high moves off to the south and another trough approaches from the northwest. By Wednesday, guidance diverges in the timing/position of another Canadian high moving south into the area. In general it does look like we may see some moderation in temperatures later in the week (beyond Wed) as the upper flow tries to become more west-east zonal over the central CONUS.

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