Taney County work week 1 in 2018!

MONDAY – January 1

Welcome to a New Year and Ice Station Zebra! The center of the surface high that has been responsible for the arctic chill down will move deeper into the area Monday and Monday night. Therefore similar conditions are expected to what you all have become used to the last couple of days. Winds will thankfully become lighter, but with temps below zero it only takes a 3-5mph wind to send wind chills back to -10 or below.

TUESDAY – January 2

The Wind Chill Advisory runs through midday Tuesday. Several records for low temps are in jeopardy on this date. Other than that, it will be a pleasure for many who will be returning to work. Assuming it's an indoor job, that is!

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY

Surface high moves south of the area Wednesday and winds will switch around to the southwest. (About time)! Temps will start to rebound for a short time, however another shot of cold air comes down Wednesday night into Thursday. This insult will be more of a glancing blow, mainly affecting the eastern half of the area with the coldest temps. Here in Taney County it will only be in the teens...

FRIDAY – January 5

By Friday, the southwest half of the forecast area should see temperatures climb above freezing for highs with areas in central Missouri in the mid to upper 20's. However, the upper pattern will be in transition as the upper trough shifts eastward and ridging begins to move into the plains. Our temperatures by Saturday should reach the mid 30's northeast to mid 40's southwest.

SATURDAY

Precipitation should begin to move into the area Saturday night and continue through the remainder of the weekend as an upper level system shifts east through the area. Most of the time period looks like it would be in the form of rain, with some chances of snow thrown in with the colder nighttime temperatures.

SUNDAY

Models show light precipitation developing over southeast Kansas into southwestern Missouri by sunrise Sunday. One aspect is for certain, the ground is cold and frozen with several inches of frost depth. The question then remains how the air temperatures will respond and how quickly does the area warm up above freezing Sunday morning into the afternoon as warm air advection moves in. The freezing line will slowly retread from west to east during the day Sunday. A light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow will progress across the area especially along and east

of Highway 65 Sunday morning. As temperatures warm up above freezing, it will turn over to a cold rain. A light glaze of ice along with a coating of light sleet and light snow look increasing likely for areas along and east of Highway 65. The greatest potential for minor accumulations will be over the eastern Ozarks where temperatures stay coldest the longest. Some travel impacts look likely over the eastern areas.

Most of the area changes over to cold rain late Sunday afternoon. As temperatures drop back down Sunday night, some of the rain could change back over to a light wintry mix again before ending from west to east. Overall a general half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall may be possible with this system.

A milder and drier weather pattern returns for early next week with above average temperatures. High temperatures in the 50s will return by the middle of next week. There will be another storm system to affect the area by Thursday with rainfall. Colder air will return on the back side of that system and change the rain to snow later in the week.

December work week numero one for Taney County!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

A big trough will develop and dig across the central U.S. Early this week. A strong cold front will move into the region Monday afternoon. Monday will be a warm and windy day with some wind gusts over 35 mph possible. Model guidance indicate a few shower possible over eastern Kansas by late Monday morning to midday. A broken line of storms will quickly develop right along the cold front by mid to late afternoon Monday. Most unstable CAPE values may be up to 1000 J/KG along with very strong shear. There appears to be at least a marginal threat for a couple strong to isolated severe storms possible across the Ozarks Region Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Given the dynamics, isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph may be the main threat. The great chance of rainfall and amounts will be along the I-44 corridor and southeastward. The front and storms clear through the Ozarks region shortly after midnight.

The upper level trough continues to establish itself over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region by Tuesday. It will be a cool and breezy day across the Ozarks.

WEDNESDAY

A deep trough weather pattern sets up across the Midwest and eastern U.S. for the middle of next week with deep northerly flow across our region. High temperatures will only be in the upper 30's to low 40's with overnight lows in the 20s. It looks like we will likely see a couple shortwaves riding through the upper level flow of the trough and associated fronts which will reinforce the colder weather for the latter part of the week.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Guidance continues to show a strong shortwave digging and moving across the Midwest Region into the Ohio River Valley on Friday with a clipper like system moving across the area. This feature may bring another chance for snow flurries across portions of the region. At this time, we do not see any impacts but will monitor future trends. The latest guidance has come in colder for the end of the week and forecast temperatures have reflected that. We will likely see highs only in the 30's and overnight lows in the teens and 20's. Wind chills may drop into the single digits by Friday and Saturday. Some moderation in temperatures may return by next weekend.

No matter what, it will definitely feel more like winter next week. So dig out the winter coats and make sure you're full of eggnog before heading out!

www.taneyweather.com

Wx for Nov 2017 work week one!

MONDAY

Another dry cold will arrive early Monday morning and pass through without much fanfare. There will be an increase in mid level clouds with the front and temperatures will be knocked down a few degrees again on Monday. A couple of the models indicate a couple sprinkles possible behind the front Monday afternoon but we have don't any mention of measurable rainfall in the forecast.

I think I'll sleep in on that day!

TUESDAY

Tuesday looks like it will be the coolest day of the week with clouds increasing during the day. A disturbance moving along in the west-southwest flow will start to move in Halloween evening. Models show scattered showers developing by mid evening and overnight...especially across southern Missouri into south central Missouri. At this time, it looks like Trick or Treaters will have mostly dry weather, but cold rain showers increasing later in the evening.

WEDNESDAY

Showers will taper off from west to east on Wednesday as the disturbance moves eastward.

THURSDAY AND ON

Southerly flow brings back warmer temperatures by Thursday with highs in the lower 70s. Another frontal boundary drops down into the region by Friday or Saturday. The boundary will be just north of our area. We will see scattered chances for showers Friday into Saturday with milder than average temperatures.