Weather for Jan 14 thru the 19th in Taney County!

SUNDAY, JANUARY 14

So, you think that perhaps maybe we're all due for a bit of a respite as the weekend winds down? Forget about it! A slightly stronger clipper like system will dive through the deep northerly flow Sunday morning across our region just in time for you to walk the dog. Models indicate enough moisture may be squeezed out for a quick band of snow flurries or light snow Sunday morning into the midday hours. The best potential of a light dusting to up to half an inch of snow will be north of Highway 60 which be the northern half of Springfield and which would not affect Taney County.

MONDAY

On the heels of the upper disturbance which brought 1-2 inches of snow from last night into Sunday, the next one will begin to arrive tonight, with snow expected to start up in central Missouri close to midnight and then spread southward across the remainder of the area overnight into Monday morning. Snow should end during the early afternoon across far southern Missouri. Another 1-2 inches of snow is expected with this disturbance, however temperatures will be falling throughout the day after a cold front moves through during the morning. Temperatures will likely dip into the teens to low 20's by the end of the afternoon with wind chills in the single digits. It will also be windier with the snowfall than it was with today's event, so there will be more blowing of snow. We will be issuing an winter weather advisory starting tonight at midnight and going through noon Monday for the snow.

TUESDAY

If there is fresh snow on the ground...we will see bitterly cold temperatures Monday night through Tuesday night with lows near or below zero and highs on Tuesday only in the lower to middle teens.

Potential wind chill values could drop as low as 10 to 20 below zero which is dangerously cold. I think even Nome Alaska might be marginally warmer...

ONWARD

The overall weather pattern flattens out and southerly winds return late next week with milder temperatures. This is a little too far out to have a very good handle on... but, here's a spoiler - anothe even more vicious Arctic Vortex may be in the offing!

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Taney County Work Week 3!

MONDAY

For Monday, the best rain chances look to be from southeast Kansas into central Missouri (Taney County will once again miss the boat), with lesser amounts as you you head south. Given clouds and rainfall potential instability looks rather meager for any severe weather threat at this time. Highs will be warmest along the Arkansas border with readings in the middle 80's, tapering off to the middle 70's in central Missouri.

For Monday night, low level jet re-establishes itself across Kansas, with the jet then nosing into northeast Kansas late. Storms will be possible again in the vicinity of the jet across mainly Kansas and into northern Missouri. However, cannot rule out some isolated activity further south and east of the area in broad warm advection regime. Will keep lower end probabilities going given flow pattern. Lows will drop into the middle 60's.

TUESDAY

Vigorous trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, while zonal to slightly southwesterly flow continues across the local area. With ample sunshine could see some isolated showers/storms develop, which should diminish by Tuesday night. Pressure gradient tightens and will likely see breezy and warm conditions, with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 80's.

WEDNESDAY

For Wednesday through Sunday, highly amplified pattern will persist across the conus with a long wave trough across the west and strong ridging east. The forecast area will be between these two system, with more influence from the ridge. At this point it looks sadly like mainly a dry pattern for the most part, with most of the widespread precipitation chances remaining well to our west. However we will be on the edge of the deeper southwesterly flow so cannot rule out precipitation chances from time to time. Temperatures look to remain above normal through the period with the warmest days looking to be Wednesday and Thursday.

FRIDAY - WEEKEND

The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

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Taney County work week #3 for May!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected over the CONUS with a long wave trough over the Plains and Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.

WEDNESDAY

The upper level long wave trough axis passes through the day Wednesday. Clouds, maybe some light precipitation will linger into Wed, but hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Thursday looks dry again with surface high pressure. In general there is decent agreement with global models of the pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching system.

SATURDAY

Surface low pressure moving east over the plains, an approaching upper level trough, a 30 mph low level jet nosing into the region, surface dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s, CAPE values in

excess of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates will all contribute to the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon and into this evening.

The amount of instability and expected updraft strengths are conducive to very large to giant hail production. Current thoughts are for baseball size or larger hail with the strongest storms.

Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The convection early this morning will likely leave boundaries across the area, which will potentially act to enhance storms and rotation this afternoon. Another concern would be the development of a significant cold pool with this system. It would not be out of the question that at some point this system develops a derecho-like nature (squall line with widespread wind damage potential) that would move across the region, taking advantage of the instability in place across the area today. Additionally, 0-3 km bulk shear vectors orientated towards the east at 30-40 knots would support mesovortex tornado potential with any portions of the line bowing towards the east.

The Moderate Risk area from SPC was expanded to the west this morning and now includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas through tonight.