Taney County work week #4!

RAIN and MORE RAIN

Computer model output has been consistent with more storm system movements across the region during the upcoming work week, so will keep precipitation chances going pretty much as they have been for the past few days. Late Sunday into Monday, on open upper wave and surface trough will move across the region. Dynamics and instability look pretty meager so don't think we'll see much in the way of severe storms.

SUNDAY

Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop or move into the area after 7PM and will be most likely during the 11PM to 6AM period. Agree with the SPC assessment of a marginal risk of severe storms

with wind and hail being the primary threat.

Highs will range from around 60 in the Lake of the Ozarks region to near 70 in extreme southwest Missouri closer to the warm front.

MONDAY – TUESDAY

Rain should begin to taper off during the day on Monday with the system exiting the area Monday evening. The area remains in a progressive pattern with systems coming through every 2-3 days through the remainder of the period.

The upper low and surface low will move slowly to the east through the day Wednesday and through Thursday. The dynamics of this system will bring the potential for strong to severe storms through the day Wednesday. The combination of ample moisture, a rather strong low level jet and upper level jet support will make all modes of severe weather possible. The storm prediction center has already placed the Ozarks under a slight risk, though if the models continue the trends of the past few runs, we may see an upgrade. Will keep an eye on the latest trends.

WEDNESDAY

For severe weather potential, please click here.

Models also bring a good amount of precipitation to the region with the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall area wide through the day Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. This, on top of the rain over the past few days, may produce some flooding concerns.

Ridging will be ongoing Friday morning through Saturday allowing the region so see a return of sunshine and temperatures climbing through the 50's and 60's on Friday and into the 70's on Saturday.

This will occur as winds shift out of the south.

LOOKING AHEAD

Another system is then anticipated to begin to impact the region Saturday night and through Sunday with more rain and temperatures in the 60s during the day as we head into the start of next week.