Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Dicy weather could be in store for Taney County!

Well, we are in the spring time and Mother Nature does like to shake things up a bit!

This from the NWS: A strong closed low will move across the Red River Valley and slowly lift northeast into southwestern Missouri and Southeastern Kansas through today and into tonight. As the low makes its way across Oklahoma a warm front will lift north across the region placing the Ozarks in the warm sector by late this afternoon into tonight. A rather strong low level jet on the order of 50 knots per hour will be in place. This will enhance the shear profile over the Ozarks region on the order of 60-75kts of shear. Cape values this evening will be on the order of 1500 to 1800 J/kg with low level Cape values in the lowest 1 to 3 Km from 90 to 120 J/kg.

My personal take on that forecast – 'The atmosphere will be charged up – like a vehicle's engine cylinders that are full of a gas and air mix, just waiting for a spark to set things in motion!' Also, please note that the definition of 'CAPE' is 'Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.'

Update: This from the NWS - 1:20 PM: 'No major changes to the overall forecast message this afternoon and tonight, with strong/severe thunderstorms still expected to affect a large portion of the area. Large hail, straight line winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.'

Me: To my uneducated mind, I'm starting to see a fizzle here... I'm thinking the action was moving more north.. At the 6PM hour winds were calm..

7:00 PM - So, sometimes the weather service fucks up! They be human and all...  I'll call this a dry slot. And, like a man who takes a penis stimulus to no good effect, this day was rather limp... remembering that this source is very much an idjit! Picture at 8PM looking west!

Summery: To use an earlier analogy - while all the players were present in that engine cylinder, no 'spark' was ever delivered and so the 'party' was a dud! Well, we could have used the rain...

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