Taney County Wx - Week 3!

MONDAY

By late this afternoon, a cold front will begin to make its way towards central Missouri. At this time, it appears that convergence along this front will not be enough to overcome what should be a fairly stout capping inversion.

Prospects for convection may then increase tonight as that front settles towards southern Missouri. Models are hinting that isentropic upglide may initiate elevated convection along or north of the U.S. 60 corridor. Many of the convection-allowing models (CAMs) seem to be focusing more on a corridor from Truman Lake towards Lebanon and Houston. This makes sense if parcels are lifted more from the 850-800 mb layer later tonight.

TUESDAY

However, a few models indicate slightly earlier initiation (this evening). If this were to occur, this would be closer to the surface front in the vicinity of the U.S. 60 corridor. With that being said, we have placed a swath of 20-40% PoPs over most of the area with the exception of far southwestern Missouri. The "highest" PoPs are in the Warsaw to Ft. Leonard Wood to Salem line as the slightly more elevated convective scenario is favored. The forecast for Tuesday then has some bust potential as that front continues to slowly move south across southern Missouri. Temperatures south of that front may easily reach the middle to upper 70s. In contrast, highs north of the front may not reach the 60 degree mark. Temperatures will likely fall in the afternoon where the front has not already passed. There will also be plenty of clouds around along with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY - THURS

That front will then briefly stall south of the region on Wednesday before beginning to return north again as a warm front Wednesday night and Thursday. We could see another shot at a few showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the returning front. After a cool Wednesday, warmer temperatures will return again for Thursday.

Medium range models then continue to depict a vigorous storm system impacting the region from later Friday into Saturday. If the general structure of this system (deep trough with closed low) materializes, the prospects look very good for widespread rainfall throughout the Ozarks. We will also maintain a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Friday given the large scale setup.

FRIDAY

Storm chances and winds have been the focus in the short term forecast. First, along with our neighboring offices to the southwest and west, we will be issuing a wind advisory for this morning as strong low level jet winds mix down to the surface. Will need to have later shifts assess whether or not an extension is needed, but the latest forecast trends back off wind speeds for Friday afternoon.