Thursday, March 30, 2017

Taney County work week 1 for April!

Remember those rainy and icky days when you were a kid, sitting bored to death in class and looking out the rain streaked classroom windows? Well, Monday will not be a lot like that. Just cloudy and sort of icky! So, buck up buttercups! Look for high temps in the 60's.

NWS: A steady drizzle in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High 62F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch. Swell...

The next storm system to affect the area begins to develop across the central and southern Plains region on Tuesday. A very vigorous and dynamic upper level wave will move out of the Southern Rockies. Significant surface cyclogenesis (nastiness) will develop across the Texas Panhandle region through the south central Plains on Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move northeastward towards the Missouri Ozarks by Tuesday night.

Steep lapse rates, very strong wind shear, and strong mid and upper level forcing will contribute to storm development Tuesday night into early on Wednesday for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The quality of low level moisture will be limited, but a few strong to severe storms appear to be possible with large hail the main threat. Will need to monitor future computer model guidance and trends during this time frame. It will also be very windy with this system Tuesday night through Wednesday. Wind gusts could approach 40 mph.

A large upper level trough digs and develops across the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday with us in northern flow. It will be chilly with highs in the 50's and overnight lows in the middle and upper 30's possibly.

A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into this weekend as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and surface high pressure moves off to the east. Southerly wind and sunshine will push temps back to pleasant spring time levels. Highs by Saturday will be back in the 70s. [Finally]

Meanwhile an upper level trough will make its way across the west and bring a front into the Plains on Sunday. Moisture levels will be on the increase Sunday ahead of this system and isolated to scattered convection could develop as early as Sunday afternoon. However a better chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday night and Monday as the system moves east.

The front will push to the east by Tuesday leaving behind dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle of next week. 

No comments:

Post a Comment