April work week two in Taney County!

MONDAY

A front will slowly track east and will start to spread east of Highway 65 by Monday afternoon. With the heating of the day instability will increase. The cap will hold into early this afternoon, but should start to weaken later this afternoon into early this evening across the eastern Ozarks. As this occurs expected showers and storms to develop generally along and east of a Branson to Rolla MO line with the best potential/coverage of showers and storms to occur across south central MO on to the south and east.

There may be enough instability for a few strong to marginally severe storms later in the afternoon hours with hail to the size of quarters being the main risk. There could also be some isolated damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. The storms will push south and east of the area by late this evening.

The cold front will switch winds to the northwest behind the front, but the colder air associated with this system will lag behind closer to the upper level low. As a result temperatures in the middle to upper 70's should occur this afternoon. A drier air mass will spread into the area behind the front and will lead to an elevated fire risk across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri where the dry air will spread in the first.

TUESDAY

Surface high pressure and a slightly cooler air mass will spread over the region Tuesday. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the middle to upper 60's. The area of high pressure will spread east on

Wednesday allowing highs in the 70's to occur each afternoon through the rest of the week and weekend. [I can live with that]!

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY

An upper level disturbance will track through the region Wednesday night into Thursday bringing shower and storm chances to the area. Another disturbance will then track into the area Friday into the start of the weekend bringing additional showers and storm chances to the area. Showers and storms will then be possible again late this weekend into the start of next week as a more active weather pattern will be in place across the area.


SATURDAY

Saturday will be very warm and breezy with highs in the low 80's possible in some locations. A cold front will drop south into the area late Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms. While an isolated strong to severe storm will be possible across SE Kansas and Western Missouri, the main hazards will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

The front looks to linger across southern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Sufficient instability and wind shear will exist creating a isolated severe storm threat. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. An increasing low level jet impeding on this front Sunday night may contribute to an additional round of showers and storms lasting into Monday.

Models insist that our area will remain in a west to southwest mid level flow next week however they do diverge with the placement of a system coming out of the Rockies beginning Tuesday. GFS is much further south than the ECMWF with the Canadian being the middle of the road. This will be a potent little system to watch as the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open. Additional chances of precip are possible next week given this active pattern. Temps will also remain mild.

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