Sunday, June 25, 2017

Taney County work week 4 including the Fourth of July!


Showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger into Monday due to a mid level front that becomes established across southern Missouri. Computer model runs, however, don't generate much instability, therefore, severe storms are not expected.

From Tuesday through Thursday night, other than an outside shot of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly warm and dry conditions are expected through the mid week period. Look for the mercury to climb back towards the upper eighty degree mark!

As the work week goes on a weak zonal front will evolve, and eventually re-positions to the southwest toward the weekend. Not only will temperatures warm a few degrees, shower and thunderstorm chances increase.


As a matter of fact, medium range models bring a complex of storms through southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be a possibility, along with a potential severe risk. Shear will be modest, although instability will be sufficient for organized storms as moisture depth increases.

The fourth of July weekend will have the potential for being somewhat active across southern Missouri. Anyone that has plans for participating in outdoor activities should closely monitor later forecasts regarding potential thunderstorm activity for that weekend.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Taney County Work week three in June!


A cooler air mass will spread into the area Monday behind the front that went through on Sunday. Highs will warm into the upper 70's to the lower 80's on Monday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60's occurring during the evening hours.


Warmer conditions will then return Tuesday through the rest of the week as highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's occur each afternoon.


The warming trend will linger into Wednesday as highs reach the upper 80's to low 90's and heat index values warm into the low to mid 90s. Not expecting much in the way of rain chances until about the Thursday time frame.


Heading into Thursday, PW (Precipitable Water) values of 1.5 to around 2.0 inches will be possible along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor, with the higher amounts across south central MO. It looks as if models are keeping the track slightly further to the southeast of the area than last nights model runs. Our thunderstorm chances start on Thursday, but will mainly be over the eastern Ozarks initially as energy from around the tropical system moves into Arkansas and south central MO.


On Friday, a southward moving front will push into the area and offer the best chance at showers and thunderstorms, with the tropical low pushing into the boot heel and quickly into the TN valley. Precipitation may shut off pretty quickly on Friday evening in the wake of the low and front.

Models are showing some differences heading into the weekend. GFS wants to keep things dry behind the front, while ECMWF brings another wave of energy and precipitation into the area Saturday night into Sunday. Will keep the low end pops going through the weekend.
Going with cooler than normal temperatures from the weekend into the early part of next week behind the front with a cooler air mass moving into the region.

Precipitable Water - A measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

June week 2ish weather for Taney County!


Monday will be even warmer as 850mb temps rise to 20C. Most locations along and north of I-44 will reach 90 with a few low 90s possible. With 700mb temps between 10-14C, it will be hard to get
precip, none the less clouds. The exception will be across far south central Missouri (Oregon county) where an isolated shower or storm is possible since the cap will be a tad weaker there.


A strong upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains Tuesday with a trailing front into Kansas and Oklahoma. Areas across the eastern Ozarks may see an afternoon shower or storm however confidence is not high in this given warm mid level temps and little forcing available. With 850mb temps around 20-21C, expect highs around 90 again. Showers and storms will fire in KS and OK Tues evening as shortwave energy approaches. Most or all of this activity will stay west of the area given increasing convective inhibition during the Overnight hours.


Frontal boundary pushes closer Wednesday afternoon and this may be our best shot at showers and storms given that the air mass will likely be pretty unstable. Wind shear looks less than 30kts however instability will be high therefore will need to monitor for stronger storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also looks warm with highs around either side of 90.


Frontal boundary then looks to become diffuse or go stationary across the area from Thursday into the early part of the weekend. A zonal mid level pattern will exist during this time. This signal would suggest several chances for showers and storms during this time frame. Otherwise temps look to remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heat index values this week will likely reach the middle to potentially upper 90s across portions of the area with the areas north and west of Interstate 44 into the Osage Plains favored. While this is not uncommon by any means, it will be the warmest it has "felt" so far this calendar year.

Sunday, June 4, 2017

June work week one for Taney County!


It was beginning to feel a bit like summer, over the weekend, what with the lazy clouds and pop up shower chances. That trend will continue through Sunday, June the 4th and on into the coming work week.... a pretty boring stretch weather wise!


Most of the area should stay dry on Monday, though a couple of showers/storms are possible through early afternoon across the Missouri/Arkansas state line. Cloud cover will clear as the day goes on, with lower dew points building into the area by afternoon and evening.


Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look like very nice days, with highs both days in the upper 70s to around 80, and lows in the 50s.


Upper ridging will begin to build back into the area Thursday into the weekend. There will be chance for thunderstorms late in the workweek as a couple of shortwaves move through the area, though
the overall setup doesn't look terribly impressive. Temperatures look to return to the mid 80s by the end of the workweek into next weekend.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Work week 4 for Taney County!


Some relief is on the way as a surface high will remain in control of the region's weather through Memorial Day with temperatures around 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overall, Monday looks to be a great day for outdoor activities.


The upper level flow for Tuesday looks to be northwesterly. This is in response to a ridge that builds just east of the Rockies. Several reinforcing surface highs will slide out of Canada and across the Plains which should help to keep rain chances limited. A persistent cut-off upper low over the Great Lakes may swing pieces of energy through the upper level flow and bring slight chances for showers and storms between the surface highs in the form of weak cold fronts. None of this activity looks severe at this time.


As we head into this afternoon and early this evening, low level convergence and temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s will likely initiate more scattered thunderstorms from northeastern Kansas into central Missouri. We may then see widely scattered thunderstorm activity begin to shift towards the U.S. 60 corridor in the evening as cold pools become established and that
low level jet begins to redevelop.

The setup for large hail looks good today given steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate deep layer shear, and good CAPE/speed shear in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 Celsius layer). Inspection of
forecast soundings also indicates quite a few matches for large hail with the SARS Sounding Analogue System. With support from indices such as the Large Hail Parameter, we will include a mention of ping pong ball sized hail in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Given steep low level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases, damaging straight line winds also appear possible in areas where cold pools conglomerate and we get bowing segments. At this time,
it appears that the greatest threat for severe storms this afternoon and this evening will be west of U.S. 65 and north of U.S. 60.


Remnants of that MCS may then persist across portions of the central and eastern Missouri Ozarks Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances in the afternoon will then be dictated by convective outflow from morning storms and where that low level convergence zone ends up. Thursday night and early Friday then look fairly dry at this point.


Friday night into Sunday night, an upper level trough will dive south towards and into the region sending a front through the area. This will result in better widespread shower/storm chances across the region as better lift will occur.


Behind the system surface high pressure and dry conditions will build over the area Sunday into early next week as highs warm into the 70s each afternoon during this time....

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Taney County work week #3 for May!


A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected over the CONUS with a long wave trough over the Plains and Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.


The upper level long wave trough axis passes through the day Wednesday. Clouds, maybe some light precipitation will linger into Wed, but hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.


Thursday looks dry again with surface high pressure. In general there is decent agreement with global models of the pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching system.


Surface low pressure moving east over the plains, an approaching upper level trough, a 30 mph low level jet nosing into the region, surface dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s, CAPE values in
excess of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates will all contribute to the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon and into this evening.

The amount of instability and expected updraft strengths are conducive to very large to giant hail production. Current thoughts are for baseball size or larger hail with the strongest storms.
Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The convection early this morning will likely leave boundaries across the area, which will potentially act to enhance storms and rotation this afternoon. Another concern would be the development of a significant cold pool with this system. It would not be out of the question that at some point this system develops a derecho-like nature (squall line with widespread wind damage potential) that would move across the region, taking advantage of the instability in place across the area today. Additionally, 0-3 km bulk shear vectors orientated towards the east at 30-40 knots would support mesovortex tornado potential with any portions of the line bowing towards the east.

The Moderate Risk area from SPC was expanded to the west this morning and now includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas through tonight.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Taney County MO Wx for work week #3!


Warmer conditions will occur as highs in the 80's will occur each afternoon from Sunday to Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days as highs in the middle to possibly upper 80s occur.

Southerly winds will also increase Sunday into mid week and could see gust up to 30 mph during the afternoon each day especially across the southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.


A more activity weather pattern will setup during the middle of the week into next week. An upper level trough will slide south across the west coast today and Monday then kick east on Tuesday
pushing into the Plains by Wednesday. This will push the ridge off to the east and allow the front to sag to the southeast into the area Tuesday night into Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as the better upper level support will remain west and north of the area with the upper level trough path. With the timing expected to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and that instability will be on the weak side should help to limit the overall severe risk Wednesday.

An upper level low will move onto the west coast early this week and dig to the southeast into the Middle of the week. Medium range models then differ on how the the upper levels behaves regarding track and timing to the east after it digs into the southeastern U.S. Therefore, there remains uncertainty on the exact details for the end of the week into next week. What is known is that the low will be to the west and will be able to pull better gulf moisture north ahead of it helping to increase instability across the area. As the low moves to the east, showers and storms will develop and we could see a couple rounds depending on the exact track of the system. There could be the potential for severe weather but when and where we be dependent on the track/timing of the the system and also a flooding risk given the very wet spring so far but there is a lot of uncertainty with when and where. We will likely need to wait for the low to make it on to the west coast and be sampled by the upper air network to get a better handle on the exact track and timing.

Highs around 80 will occur Wednesday and Thursday, then slightly cooler conditions will build over the region as highs in the 70s are expected Friday into the weekend.


A rather wet start to the weekend.


Clouds to beging this day and sun to end it. Look for improving conditions. Some chances for showers and some scattered storms are expected, but we are not looking at high impact weather during this period.


 Looks quiet/dry with surface high pressure moving into MO.

Friday, May 12, 2017

Hail strikes again!

Forsyth MO - Normally, hail falling from the skies is a pretty rare event. Part of the reason is the conditions required to it to form. (Hail forms when thunderstorm updrafts are strong enough to carry water droplets well above the freezing level. This freezing process forms a hailstone, which can grow as additional water freezes onto it. Eventually, the hailstone becomes too heavy for the updrafts to support it and it falls to the ground.) The other reason is that when it does fall, it tends to fall in rather narrow strips and only for short periods of time. It's not unusual for a person in a car to be in dry conditions one minute, a driving rain with hail the next and then back out of the whole deal a few minutes later. Lastly, hail in southwest Missouri is much more likely early into the spring season when enough cold air can be scrounged up!

So, it was amazing to me to see similar hail events, one on March 9 and the other May 11 happened so darn close together. The picture at right was a hailstone that greeted me at my front door. And yes, it was made in the good ol US of A!

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Taney county work week #2!

A slight upper level ridge will be over the southern U.S. And Lower Mississippi River Valley Region to start off this week. Southwesterly winds will be a little breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be joined by warmer temperatures with most locations getting up into the lower 80s both Monday and Tuesday. We might even see a few middle 80's.


A moist and unstable air mass is in place across the area and this will aid in the development of additional showers and storms through Tonight. While the main synoptic front is located across Northern Missouri west into Northern Kansas, an effective front/trough is located further south from Central Missouri back into West Central Oklahoma. Impulses riding up from the south have contributed to pockets of storm development, most remaining just to our north and west thus far. Will be watching the evolution of storms across Southern and Central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening as they approach the area ahead of a lead impulse over the Red River Valley. The atmosphere is ripe for organized storms with 1500j/kg of ML cape along with 40-50kts of effective bulk shear. If storms can get organized then large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Locations along and north of Interstate 44 are most favored for this activity.

Most model guidance thus far has struggled with the evolution of showers and storms and thus caution must be used with them. There is a signal that the heavier axis of showers and storms may be pushed further south into our area tonight vs locations to our north given a strong low level jet developing and interacting with this trough/effective boundary. While uncertainty in this scenario is high, it would have implications on our qpf amounts overnight and this will need to be monitored. A severe threat will exist for most of the night as the environment will not change much. Shear profiles will actually become more favorable for storms heading into the overnight hours.

There will likely be ongoing showers and storms Thursday morning across the area and this will be key as to what it does with the true synoptic front. Models have the front along the Interstate 44 corridor Thursday afternoon. Forecast soundings off the GFS reveal a class splitting super cell profile with large hail being the most prominent threat. Mid level lapse rates will be steep and CAPE will be plentiful especially in the hail growth zone. Thinking that robust thunderstorm development is possible along the front in the afternoon with hail to the size of golf balls possible. There is a conditional threat for a tornado if storms can ride the front and increase effective helicities. This will be evaluated more closer to tomorrow. A Slight risk for severe storms is across most of the area for Thursday with locations along and south of Interstate 44 most likely to be affected.


Slightly cooler weather returns for the end of the week.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Taney County Work week 1!


A big improvement in weather conditions will be had Monday as the upper low lifts off to the northeast. The dry weather will persist into Tuesday, but the dry spell will not last long.

Rain and scattered storms should be ongoing once again through the day Wednesday and continue into early Thursday morning. Current expectations with this system will be for an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall. There is some indication that the frontal lift will act to enhance the QPF where CAPE is limited. This will allow for some embedded thunderstorms which may produce rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour at times.

Despite the expectation of more strati-form rainfall with this system, the antecedent saturated soil conditions, ongoing flooding and terrain effects across the Ozarks would bring the potential for flash flooding to occur. As a result a Flash Flood Watch will be issued for all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas from 06z Wednesday through 12z Thursday.

A cooler weather pattern will set up for late week as the region comes under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of the deepening upper level trough.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Bull Shoals to flood?

Forsyth Mo. - It's late April in 2017 and once again heavy rains were threatening to inundate two local parks; Shadow Rock and River Run!

After getting doused with over three inches of rainfall recently, there is a strong likelihood that we will be positively drenched during the last weekend of the an otherwise nice spring month! The national Weather Service is predicting as much as eight inches over a broad area of the southwest Missouri watershed and that typically spells trouble for some people who live near the Tri-Lakes water way.

If Bull Shoals lake gets much over 675 feet MSL, both River Run and nearby Shadow Rock Parks will likely close up for the balance of the summer and even possibly for the entire summer season. Should that happen, a number of things will be negatively impacted including; local convenience stores, area campers, planned outdoor park events and revenue for the City of Forsyth!

As of April the 27th, the lake level at Bull Shoals was at 664.36 feet. If the rains come as predicted, that level would surely grow and both reservoirs (Beaver and Table Rock) are at full capacity. That combined with saturated soils would mean that most any water that fell would be dumped downstream where it would back up at the Arkansas border where the Bull Shoals dam is located.

Should we all start building Arks?

Taney County MO. - After a recent spate of heavy rainfall that dropped three and three quarters of rain or more over our area, the National Weather Service is calling for yet another round starting on Friday, April 28! Should this occur in the manner shown in the above graphic, it would definitely impact the upper reservoirs of the chain of three large lakes that form Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals. (The short strip of water known as Taneycomo which connects both Table Rock and Bull Shoals could also be severely impacted if rainfalls meet or exceed the forecast amounts).

As of April the 27th, Beaver Lake that form the headwaters of the chain, was already at 1,125.98 feet which was above the full pool level of 1,121.0 feet! Note that the graphic shows a chance for rain potential to be over 10 inches. That much water falling on an already water soaked watershed would be immediately dumped into the lake with little in the way of absorption. This extra water would then be released at the dam into Table Rock lake which would also be 'under the gun' so to speak. Without going into too much detail, that's one heck of a lot of water that will be headed somewhere in a hurry! Remembering that while the system can easily handle such a load, the real problems would arise out of just how fast the whole system is impacted. Too much rain all at once would simply overload the whole smear...

Having stated all that, remember that what is forecast to happen and what actually happens can be worlds apart. Also, please note that this post constitutes the musing of an old fart with no formal training in the weather what so ever.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Taney County Work week four!

The start of the work week will feature dry conditions and a warming trend. Highs by Tuesday should warm back into the upper 70's.


Models then bring a storm system out into the central U.S. From Tuesday night into Wednesday. A fair amount of spread remains regarding the eventual track of the surface low associated with this system. Some models track it along the Missouri/Arkansas border while others have it moving east across central Missouri.

It does look like an elevated mixed layer (EML) will advect over the region ahead of this system with Gulf of Mexico moisture returning northward into the region. This should lead to moderate amounts of instability (especially over southern Missouri) as the system arrives Tuesday night. Deep layer shear will also be supportive of organized convection.

One of the bigger questions to answer is whether or not convection can fire along or ahead of an incoming cold front given that a decent capping inversion will be in place. It is quite possible that thunderstorms may be slightly post-frontal. Regardless, CAPE/shear profiles alone are supportive of at least a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

This system looks as if it will be fairly progressive moving through. However, a widespread one to two inch rainfall is quite possible across the region. With streams and rivers already high, this may lead to some hydro concerns.


We may then see another day or two of quiet weather behind the midweek system before active weather returns by next weekend. Global models continue to indicate a large scale setup that would favor more heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe storms. Details regarding these potential hazards will become clearer throughout the upcoming week.


Confidence in a flooding event has therefore become high enough to post a Flash Flood Watch (will be out by 4 AM) for all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme Southeastern Kansas from Friday night through Sunday. Widespread storm total amounts are still expected to be in the 3-6" range, but with a caveat. With convective elements in play for the duration of the event, locally higher amounts are quite likely (in the 8" plus range). It is still a bit early to nail down where the heaviest rain will fall.

Not to be outdone, the potential for severe storms will also be present with this setup starting as early as Friday night. South of that strengthening front, moderate amounts of instability will be present with sufficient deep layer shear for strong to severe storms. If supercells can develop, large hail to the size of golf balls would be possible. The tornado threat will have to be monitored as super cell motions would tend to parallel the front. Even north of the front, elevated hailers will be possible.

The key to the severe potential Friday night will be where that front sets up. The NAM has it draped across south-central Missouri with the ECMWF a bit farther north. In contrast, the GFS keeps it just south of the Arkansas border. We are leaning towards that front at least making it as far north as southern Missouri. The severe threat would then continue into Saturday, especially along and south of where that front sets up.

The main upper level support for this system will then pull through the region from Sunday into Sunday night. The main shower/thunderstorm threat should begin to diminish later in the day on Sunday, however some light wrap-around precipitation will remain possible into Sunday night or even Monday.

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Easter Sunday brings much needed rainfall!

Forsyth MO. - I arose early (for me) on an Easter Sunday in 2017 to see that the skies had darkened with the local radar showing a real good chance for significant rainfall. Much of southwest Missouri, where I call home has been in a mini drought for over a year and any rainfall would be much appreciated!

Halfway through the month of April and my rain gauge showed just .39 of an inch total! [See for more stats!] That sort of trend had been playing out for all of 2016 and seemed to be continuing. This is the peak start of the growing season and what with the problems of too much rainfall in southern California, vegetable prices had risen sharply. We really needed a good growing season here in the Midwest to help offset the losses out west!

After an initial quick third of an inch, a rain shield progressed through the area bringing the total to half an inch by mid morning! And there was more good news as the NWS was projecting unsettled weather to continue through the following weekend!

By 11:30 AM CST - the rain was pretty much done. I recorded .55 of an inch and even that, when added to the graph at right, show us with a way to go to catch up to an estimated 7 inch yearly deficit!

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Taney County work week three in April!


Yawn! One would think we would have seen a bit more in the rain gauge by this point! A drier and more stable air mass will spread into the region by Monday, suppressing most of the thunderstorm activity into Arkansas. Highs on Monday will warm into the low to mid 70s. Double yawn...


Wednesday is expected to be warmer than normal, but otherwise quiet. Look for temps in the mid 80's! Yes, and it will be OK to wash those oh so dirty cars!


The main concern for this Thursday and Friday will heavy rain/flood potential late Thu night-Fri-Sat. Some severe storm potential is there depending on how/where a west-east frontal boundary sets up
Thu-Fri. Swell....

The front will continue to move south through the area Thursday with continued chances for showers/thunderstorms area wide at one time or another. Daytime heating will help boost cape/instability during the day Thursday with lots of shear energy present in spots. Shear that would be sufficient for organized storms. A veered surface wind will limit storm potential to hail/winds. Depending on which guidance you choose the timing for stronger storms in our area might be noon(ish) to mid afternoon before the front pushes south and east of the cwfa. The SPC marginal risk covers the area well.


There is good agreement on general large scale/synoptic scale features during this time. The front will stall south of the area over OK/AR Thu night as a shortwave/upper level jet digs southeast through the southern Rockies. A slow moving upper level closed low develops near the CO/KS/OK Panhandle region by midday Fri with multiple lead impulses ahead of the main low. Increasingly more numerous and heavier showers will begin to develop late Thu night and continue Fri as waves of showers move through with the small scale upper level disturbances. Periods of heavy showers will continue Fri-Fri night-early Sat until the upper low moves overhead on Sat. Blended guidance utilized by our forecast database shows a solid 2-4 inch storm total rainfall across the area with highest amounts over southeast KS and the southwest corner of MO. The bottom line is that this type of rainfall over a large area will produce widespread flooding as early as late Thu night, but certainly Fri and through the weekend. Creeks, rivers, low water crossings, poor drainage and urban areas will all be vulnerable to flooding.

On paper, the severe storm risk looks minimal day 3/Fri, but will have to watch where the surface front to our south sets up.

On into Saturday, a closed off low develops and impacts the region with widespread rainfall. This system will also bring much cooler temperatures to the area with lows in the 40's and 50's over
the upcoming weekend.

Monday, April 10, 2017

Climate for April thru June!

Taney County MO. - According to the NOAA Climate prediction center, temperatures for our neck of the woods will be warmer than normal with less than normal rainfall April through the month of June. And while the predictions for the Summer period July through September are not yet out, I'd say it was a safe bet to call for more of the same!

April work week two in Taney County!


A front will slowly track east and will start to spread east of Highway 65 by Monday afternoon. With the heating of the day instability will increase. The cap will hold into early this afternoon, but should start to weaken later this afternoon into early this evening across the eastern Ozarks. As this occurs expected showers and storms to develop generally along and east of a Branson to Rolla MO line with the best potential/coverage of showers and storms to occur across south central MO on to the south and east.

There may be enough instability for a few strong to marginally severe storms later in the afternoon hours with hail to the size of quarters being the main risk. There could also be some isolated damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. The storms will push south and east of the area by late this evening.

The cold front will switch winds to the northwest behind the front, but the colder air associated with this system will lag behind closer to the upper level low. As a result temperatures in the middle to upper 70's should occur this afternoon. A drier air mass will spread into the area behind the front and will lead to an elevated fire risk across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri where the dry air will spread in the first.


Surface high pressure and a slightly cooler air mass will spread over the region Tuesday. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the middle to upper 60's. The area of high pressure will spread east on
Wednesday allowing highs in the 70's to occur each afternoon through the rest of the week and weekend. [I can live with that]!


An upper level disturbance will track through the region Wednesday night into Thursday bringing shower and storm chances to the area. Another disturbance will then track into the area Friday into the start of the weekend bringing additional showers and storm chances to the area. Showers and storms will then be possible again late this weekend into the start of next week as a more active weather pattern will be in place across the area.


Saturday will be very warm and breezy with highs in the low 80's possible in some locations. A cold front will drop south into the area late Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms. While an isolated strong to severe storm will be possible across SE Kansas and Western Missouri, the main hazards will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

The front looks to linger across southern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Sufficient instability and wind shear will exist creating a isolated severe storm threat. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. An increasing low level jet impeding on this front Sunday night may contribute to an additional round of showers and storms lasting into Monday.

Models insist that our area will remain in a west to southwest mid level flow next week however they do diverge with the placement of a system coming out of the Rockies beginning Tuesday. GFS is much further south than the ECMWF with the Canadian being the middle of the road. This will be a potent little system to watch as the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open. Additional chances of precip are possible next week given this active pattern. Temps will also remain mild.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Taney County work week 1 for April!

Remember those rainy and icky days when you were a kid, sitting bored to death in class and looking out the rain streaked classroom windows? Well, Monday will not be a lot like that. Just cloudy and sort of icky! So, buck up buttercups! Look for high temps in the 60's.

NWS: A steady drizzle in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High 62F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch. Swell...

The next storm system to affect the area begins to develop across the central and southern Plains region on Tuesday. A very vigorous and dynamic upper level wave will move out of the Southern Rockies. Significant surface cyclogenesis (nastiness) will develop across the Texas Panhandle region through the south central Plains on Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move northeastward towards the Missouri Ozarks by Tuesday night.

Steep lapse rates, very strong wind shear, and strong mid and upper level forcing will contribute to storm development Tuesday night into early on Wednesday for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The quality of low level moisture will be limited, but a few strong to severe storms appear to be possible with large hail the main threat. Will need to monitor future computer model guidance and trends during this time frame. It will also be very windy with this system Tuesday night through Wednesday. Wind gusts could approach 40 mph.

A large upper level trough digs and develops across the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday with us in northern flow. It will be chilly with highs in the 50's and overnight lows in the middle and upper 30's possibly.

A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into this weekend as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and surface high pressure moves off to the east. Southerly wind and sunshine will push temps back to pleasant spring time levels. Highs by Saturday will be back in the 70s. [Finally]

Meanwhile an upper level trough will make its way across the west and bring a front into the Plains on Sunday. Moisture levels will be on the increase Sunday ahead of this system and isolated to scattered convection could develop as early as Sunday afternoon. However a better chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday night and Monday as the system moves east.

The front will push to the east by Tuesday leaving behind dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle of next week. 

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Dicy weather could be in store for Taney County!

Well, we are in the spring time and Mother Nature does like to shake things up a bit!

This from the NWS: A strong closed low will move across the Red River Valley and slowly lift northeast into southwestern Missouri and Southeastern Kansas through today and into tonight. As the low makes its way across Oklahoma a warm front will lift north across the region placing the Ozarks in the warm sector by late this afternoon into tonight. A rather strong low level jet on the order of 50 knots per hour will be in place. This will enhance the shear profile over the Ozarks region on the order of 60-75kts of shear. Cape values this evening will be on the order of 1500 to 1800 J/kg with low level Cape values in the lowest 1 to 3 Km from 90 to 120 J/kg.

My personal take on that forecast – 'The atmosphere will be charged up – like a vehicle's engine cylinders that are full of a gas and air mix, just waiting for a spark to set things in motion!' Also, please note that the definition of 'CAPE' is 'Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.'

Update: This from the NWS - 1:20 PM: 'No major changes to the overall forecast message this afternoon and tonight, with strong/severe thunderstorms still expected to affect a large portion of the area. Large hail, straight line winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.'

Me: To my uneducated mind, I'm starting to see a fizzle here... I'm thinking the action was moving more north.. At the 6PM hour winds were calm..

7:00 PM - So, sometimes the weather service fucks up! They be human and all...  I'll call this a dry slot. And, like a man who takes a penis stimulus to no good effect, this day was rather limp... remembering that this source is very much an idjit! Picture at 8PM looking west!

Summery: To use an earlier analogy - while all the players were present in that engine cylinder, no 'spark' was ever delivered and so the 'party' was a dud! Well, we could have used the rain...

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Taney County work week #4!


Computer model output has been consistent with more storm system movements across the region during the upcoming work week, so will keep precipitation chances going pretty much as they have been for the past few days. Late Sunday into Monday, on open upper wave and surface trough will move across the region. Dynamics and instability look pretty meager so don't think we'll see much in the way of severe storms.


Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop or move into the area after 7PM and will be most likely during the 11PM to 6AM period. Agree with the SPC assessment of a marginal risk of severe storms
with wind and hail being the primary threat.

Highs will range from around 60 in the Lake of the Ozarks region to near 70 in extreme southwest Missouri closer to the warm front.


Rain should begin to taper off during the day on Monday with the system exiting the area Monday evening. The area remains in a progressive pattern with systems coming through every 2-3 days through the remainder of the period.

The upper low and surface low will move slowly to the east through the day Wednesday and through Thursday. The dynamics of this system will bring the potential for strong to severe storms through the day Wednesday. The combination of ample moisture, a rather strong low level jet and upper level jet support will make all modes of severe weather possible. The storm prediction center has already placed the Ozarks under a slight risk, though if the models continue the trends of the past few runs, we may see an upgrade. Will keep an eye on the latest trends.


For severe weather potential, please click here.

Models also bring a good amount of precipitation to the region with the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall area wide through the day Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. This, on top of the rain over the past few days, may produce some flooding concerns.

Ridging will be ongoing Friday morning through Saturday allowing the region so see a return of sunshine and temperatures climbing through the 50's and 60's on Friday and into the 70's on Saturday.
This will occur as winds shift out of the south.


Another system is then anticipated to begin to impact the region Saturday night and through Sunday with more rain and temperatures in the 60s during the day as we head into the start of next week.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Mediacom. The weather nanny!

Whenever storms threaten my area in SW Mo, even storm off to the north about sixty miles away, Mediacom is right on the job! They broadcast warnings across all their channels so that the populace is warned of impending disaster...

I would like to make the suggestion that in the future, Mediacom should increase the coverage of these warning in terms of geographical and temporal parameters. So, the next time a storm comes within a hundred miles of any location, let's have them go to continuous coverage so that even the slower among up are properly informed. After all, it is apparently policy that Mediacom takes care of all its subscribers... whether they want the help or not.

In days past, there was a short warning flashed on the scree asking those with an interest to tuned to a certain channel. That seemed to work pretty well, too. But, evidently, someone in management decided that wasn't enough of an interruption an so has gone back to incessant breaks in the broadcasting to make sure we are not only warned but irritated to a sufficient level to boot! Thanks, Mediacom for everything!

Monday, March 20, 2017

Taney County Wx - Week 3!


By late this afternoon, a cold front will begin to make its way towards central Missouri. At this time, it appears that convergence along this front will not be enough to overcome what should be a fairly stout capping inversion.

Prospects for convection may then increase tonight as that front settles towards southern Missouri. Models are hinting that isentropic upglide may initiate elevated convection along or north of the U.S. 60 corridor. Many of the convection-allowing models (CAMs) seem to be focusing more on a corridor from Truman Lake towards Lebanon and Houston. This makes sense if parcels are lifted more from the 850-800 mb layer later tonight.


However, a few models indicate slightly earlier initiation (this evening). If this were to occur, this would be closer to the surface front in the vicinity of the U.S. 60 corridor. With that being said, we have placed a swath of 20-40% PoPs over most of the area with the exception of far southwestern Missouri. The "highest" PoPs are in the Warsaw to Ft. Leonard Wood to Salem line as the slightly more elevated convective scenario is favored. The forecast for Tuesday then has some bust potential as that front continues to slowly move south across southern Missouri. Temperatures south of that front may easily reach the middle to upper 70s. In contrast, highs north of the front may not reach the 60 degree mark. Temperatures will likely fall in the afternoon where the front has not already passed. There will also be plenty of clouds around along with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Tuesday night.


That front will then briefly stall south of the region on Wednesday before beginning to return north again as a warm front Wednesday night and Thursday. We could see another shot at a few showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the returning front. After a cool Wednesday, warmer temperatures will return again for Thursday.

Medium range models then continue to depict a vigorous storm system impacting the region from later Friday into Saturday. If the general structure of this system (deep trough with closed low) materializes, the prospects look very good for widespread rainfall throughout the Ozarks. We will also maintain a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Friday given the large scale setup.


Storm chances and winds have been the focus in the short term forecast. First, along with our neighboring offices to the southwest and west, we will be issuing a wind advisory for this morning as strong low level jet winds mix down to the surface. Will need to have later shifts assess whether or not an extension is needed, but the latest forecast trends back off wind speeds for Friday afternoon.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Taney County work week #2 for March 2017!


My early take would be to just go ahead and write week #2 off as a casualty of winter as yet another cold air mass will move over the region behind the front on Monday. This will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40's and allow overnight lows to fall into the middle 20's Tuesday morning and the lower 20's and upper teens Wednesday morning. Will likely need Freeze Warnings for these mornings due to the early blooming fruit tree that are not affected by this weekends freeze.


A clipper type system will move over the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night before a warming trend finally allows temperatures to climb into the 50's and 60's by the end of next week and into the weekend with showers and storms possible Friday and Friday night.


Gusty south winds are expected with a continued warming trend as the remnants of the unseasonably chilly/dry air mass shift off to the east. Still, the eastern cwfa will see high temperatures somewhat below normal with highs in the upper 40's to near 50, while our western cwfa could be in the mid 60's. Cloud cover with low level moisture advection is expected to interfere with the diurnal temperature rise, particularly over our eastern counties. Couldn't rule out some drizzle, but am not putting that in the forecast for now.


A shortwave moving into/through the Midwest will support a trailing cold frontal passage through our area. Low level moisture will continue to advect northward with surface dew points reaching the mid/upper 50's Fri. Warm air aloft/capping just below 700mb limits overall instability, so  it looks like there will be a good chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms over the far southern MO late Fri and Fri night.


Friday, March 3, 2017

The first work week of March 2017 for Taney County!


Not unlike the severe weather event last week, there will be two distinct opportunities for severe weather this evening/tonight. The first will be with any discrete super cells that are able to form ahead of the frontal boundary during the early to mid evening hours. These would likely have the greatest severe weather potential should they form. The second wave of severe weather will be with the front itself, with initial super cells (likely just north and west of the county wide area) congealing into a linear complex/QLCS as the front advances to the southeast. Straight line winds, large hail, and brief meso-vortex tornadoes will all be possible with this line. Having said that, this front will likely be quick mover and should clear our region by midday Tuesday. Thereafter, dry conditions can be anticipated as a dry northwesterly flow aloft sets up over the region. Has anyone fallen asleep yet?


And yes, about that northwesterly flow of air. That will mean a somewhat cooler air mass will again filter into the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday (but, nothing abnormally cool). This cool down looks to be short lived as the surface high swiftly pushes east of our region by Thursday. Wait for it! As heights begin to gradually rise and a return flow sets up, a wonderful warming trend appears likely for the end of next week. I've got my shorts and suntan lotion already laid out!


The timing for potential severe weather on Thursday will be from mid to late afternoon into the early evening, with large hail the primary risk and a secondary thunderstorm wind risk.

Drier air should quickly move in behind the front with little to no precipitation occurring after 9 PM CST. Clearing should take place overnight with lows dipping back down into the 30's for most locations.


Computer models indicate bands of robust precipitation and QPF develop late Saturday morning into the afternoon across much of the area. The northeastern two thirds of the area will likely see snow with a rain and snow mix across the southwestern one third of the area or basically from a Pittsburg Kansas to Branson line southward. Short term model guidance and forecast soundings suggest that the snow bands produce occasional moderate to locally heavy burst of snow at times across the Missouri Ozarks during Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will likely be hovering around freezing or slight above. With recent warm weather and ground temperatures as well as a high March sun angle, it will be very hard for snow to stick to roads. Most accumulation will be confined to grassy areas and elevated objects. One to two inches will be possible under heavier snow bursts. At this time, we do not think travel will be impacted.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Taney County forecast for the last work week of Februay 2017!


After enduring a rather cold and below normal weekend,a refreshing change brought on by persistent south winds Monday will bring up more abundant warmth and moisture with a continued chance for light rain at times. Rising mid level heights ahead of trough digging into into the southwest U.S. will limit instability, so we are just expecting overall light precipitation amounts. Then, it gets better!


At this juncture, there appear to be three potential initiation points for severe thunderstorms from this afternoon into tonight. A Tornado Watch was issued at 2:23 PM CST Tuesday. This watch, for Taney County and other nearby counties will be in effect until 9PM tonight:

1. There may be a window for strong/severe convection across the eastern half of the CWA by mid-afternoon as convective temperatures are reached and convection is perhaps aided by a bit of lift from the low level jet. This is by far the most uncertain scenario, but if it should come to fruition, any convection that develops would likely become super cellular very quickly, with some potential for significant severe given more than sufficient CAPE and shear.

2. By early to mid evening, supercells may develop across eastern/northeastern Oklahoma and/or northwest Arkansas and move northeast into the CWA. This scenario has a bit of support from various short term, high resolution model guidance, though is far from certain. Given that supercells would be the preferred mode, large hail, winds, and tornadoes would all be possible with this activity.

3. The highest confidence opportunity is with the cold front itself, which should sweep across the region from late evening into the overnight hours. A line of strong/severe convection seems probable along this front, though a few breaks in the line are certainly possible. High winds would be the most likely hazard with this line, though a few QLCS-type tornadoes are possible with any east-northeast surges given 0-3 KM shear vectors pushing 40+ knots.


The aforementioned system will move off to the east Wednesday leaving a zonal flow aloft in its wake. After seasonably cool temperatures persist on Wednesday warm conditions will return for the later part of the week. Dry and increasingly breezing conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions late in the week.

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Color Taney County work week three warm! At least for the start!


We must all remember that this is still February! That said, it will stay warm even as an upper level trough and associated Pacific front will push eastward across the region on Monday. A band of scattered to numerous showers will spread across the Ozarks region from west to east. Computer models continue to depict modest instability which will support isolated thunderstorms. While most areas will receive modest rainfall amounts, that will not put much of a dent in the current dry spell. Still it's a start!

Rising 500 MB heights and a more zonal pattern will follow the passage of the upper level trough. This will keep the warm weather pattern going through mid week. And OK, we can all live with that! Highs Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday will rise into the 70's. So, everyone, get out your shorts and show off those white legs!


The unseasonably warm weather, we've all be enjoying, will continue through mid week as a zonal pattern evolves. Southerly winds will resume Wednesday and increase on Thursday as surface low pressure develops over the Plains. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the middle and upper 70's. Elevated fire weather conditions will develop in some areas Wednesday as temperatures warm and the air mass remains dry.


The surface low pressure system will strengthen as it tracks into northern Missouri on Friday and a broad upper level trough transitions eastward from the western U.S. An associated cold front will push across the region on Friday. At this time a mostly dry frontal passage is expected as the deeper moisture remains to our east. Resulting increase in surface winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions especially Friday.


A colder weather pattern with temperatures more typical of late February can be expected next weekend into early next week. Chances of precipitation could return late next weekend into next Monday but the details remain uncertain at this time as confidence in model solutions remains low at this time. Well, it was good while it lasted...

Several models are signaling some light precipitation late Sunday morning across east central Kansas and west central Missouri. This is in response to an approaching upper level disturbance. The 00z or 6AM CST computer models do not suggest any QPF (which stands for the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area), throwing any uncertainty into Sunday's precipitation forecast.

With the lower tropopause in place, (the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere) that should result in a dry Sunday morning, we think that if precipitation does occur, it will hold off until mid day at least. (This would cause precipitation to be rain as opposed to snow). Therefore we have all rain chances going and leave the snow out of the picture at this time.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Week 3 forecast for February!


Could this be a more boring forecast? Monday will start the week off fairly nice with plenty of sunshine, light winds and temperatures around 50 as the surface high slowly moves across the area.

A cut off upper level low will begin to shift out of the southwest and across the southern plains Monday night and through Tuesday. This will bring the potential for some showers across the region though rainfall amounts will be on the light side and primarily focused on the southern half of the Ozarks.

As the upper low moves east it will drag the precipitation south with it. There may be a few flakes of snow that mix in with the light rain late Monday night into early Tuesday morning but not expecting anything to stick.


A big pattern change will commence from mid to late week as an upper level ridge builds into the central United States. This will result in a warming trend with highs returning to the 60's by Thursday. We have continued to go on the warm side of guidance through the weekend as most models have tended to have a cool bias recently. Additionally (especially for late this work week), southwest low level flow often bodes well for warmer temperatures.

One fly in the ointment comes early this weekend as global models bring upper level energy northeast across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. This could result in some shower potential, especially across far southern and southeastern Missouri. Confidence is fairly low at this point in precipitation potential.

Global models have then been fairly consistent bringing an upper level trough east across the central United States either late this weekend or early next week. There has been a slight slowing trend noted. Nevertheless, this may be our next decent shot at measurable rainfall.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Work week # 2 in Febraury 2017!



Very little temperature change is expected with the passage of Monday night's PAC front as temperatures bounce back into the 60's on Tuesday.

A Canadian front then approaches from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will bring colder temperatures to the Ozarks. We could also experience a brief band of light rain or snow on
Thursday. Models have been signaling this band of precipitation for several runs now, however, the positioning of this band has varied with each model run. So the snow risk on Thursday is very uncertain at this time.

By next weekend, a brief upper level ridge of high pressure will create warmer temperatures and dry weather for the Ozarks.


The temperatures will swing back to the warm side very quickly Fri with southwest winds and a retreating dry air mass as the sfc (surface) high moves east and southeast of the area and mid level height rises move into the central CONUS (Continental United States). Could see highs near 80 deg F over the far southwest corner Saturday, but a fly in the ointment may be increased clouds with low level moisture advection. Potential weather impacts during this time will be fire weather related, particularly Friday with warm temperatures, low humidity, and increased southwest winds, especially over the western cwfa.

Sat night-Monday: Another front is expected to move through Sat night-Sunday with a chance of showers. Forecast builder/grids only have a low probability for thunder. The ECMWF is not robust at all with precipitation along the front and a quick glance at progged soundings off the GFS show fairly shallow moisture and/or capping. Cooler and dry weather is expected Monday behind the front.


Some changes are in the forecast later on. We still expect a split flow pattern to develop over the CONUS with a northern stream shortwave pushing a cold front through the area late Sat night. Have backed off on rain chances somewhat, but some post frontal drizzle or very light rain will still be possible over the southern cwfa (county wide forecast area) Sunday.

Monday-Tuesdayish: The main question will be how far north precipitation can make it as a closed low along the AZ/NM/Mexican border in the southern stream of the upper flow Monday ejects out. 6AM guidance has the ECMWF much farther north with the track of the upper wave with more potential for precipitation versus the GFS. [We can only hope]. The forecast is a compromise blend favoring the best chances over southern MO. There is not much cold air north of the low in either case, but the forecast builder does spit out some sleet and snow Monday night with low/mid 30s temperatures. At this point we are not anticipating much adverse impact given the relatively warm temperatures (and relatively low confidence in the storm track).

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Work week for first week of February!


A warm up? Light winds early will give way to southwest winds by early afternoon with a nice warm up ahead of an approaching surface front. MOS guidance has temperatures at or just above 60 deg F over the the Taney County forecast area. This actually might be a tad cool in a southwesterly surface flow regime. Potential weather impacts are fire weather related with warm/dry conditions and moderate wind gusts in the afternoon. Doesn't look like warning conditions, but elevated concerns are still warranted.


The front will slow and maybe stall briefly for a time over or near our area. In any case, a dry air mass will be in place and we are not expecting any precipitation. It should be warmer than normal and dry with fairly light winds. Ergo, our mini-drought stricken condition is likely to continue..


The surface front over our area Tue into Wed will finally start to get pushed south as a Canadian surface ridge noses into our area. The ECMWF and Canadian guidance continue to push the surface high center into Neb/IA/northern MO by Fri. The GFS keeps the surface high center farther north and allows some moisture to advect northward into the region Thu. So, or now, we will go closer to the drier solutions during this time. Forecast confidence starts to lower as guidance has trouble zeroing in on individual systems in the zonal flow.


A warming trend will commence today as the Canadian high departs and winds shift south. Temperatures will increase about 10 degrees over yesterday with another 10 to 15 degree jump on Sunday under zonal flow aloft.

In addition to shifting to the south a weak wave moving across southern Canada will drop pressures over the Northern Plains and increase the pressure gradient during the day today. Moisture will lag resulting in RH values dropping into the 30's and an elevated threat for the spread of grass fires.