Monday, October 9, 2017

Taney County weather Oct 9 thru Oct 14!


It was a mild and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 60s under clear skies and light winds. These quiet conditions will continue today as readings warm into the 80s' this afternoon.

By this evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma and south central Kansas. A moisture tongue and instability axis will set up in this area, interacting with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Severe storms are becoming likely west of the Ozarks, however, we're less confident that sufficient instability will be present for severe storms on the Missouri side.

As of now we will continue mentioning the risk for 50 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail west of Springfield.


Showers and thunderstorms will translate eastward into Tuesday as a large upper level system swings overhead. This precipitation comes to an end by Tuesday night. Tuesday night lows will fall into the 40's as a cool rush of Canadian air spreads in.

This would be our first fall type cool air.


Temps on Wednesday will struggle to warm out of the 60's with 40's again Wednesday night.

The extended period of dry weather will continue through Saturday evening. Warmer air will spread in as southerly breezes return.

Models have sped up our next system over the weekend as a cold front moves in Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like this feature will bring a period of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday, October 6, 2017

TS Nate has potential to slam into New Orleans!

The mayor of New Orleans late Thursday declared a state of emergency for the city ahead of Tropical Storm Nate, which has already been blamed for 22 deaths in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

The city’s mayor Mitch Landrieu said residents who live outside the city’s levee system or in low-lying areas should move to higher ground.

“There is no need to panic,” he tweeted. “Be ready and prepare. Get a plan. Prepare to protect your personal property.”

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Taney County Wx - October week one!

Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through midweek as those southeasterly winds persist. The best moisture advection will actually occur across the southern and then central Plains as a surface ridge axis remains planted across the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, a northeast to southwest oriented frontal boundary will become established from the western Great Lakes into the Corn Belt and then southern Plains from Monday night into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should develop to our northwest along that front and in closer vicinity to short wave energy tracking northeast within the southwesterly flow aloft. [Yawn...]


Models all have showers/thunder breaking out across the area this morning. PW values will significantly increase across the forecast area today with most locations rising to around 1.6 to 1.9 in. The cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms will hold down warming today into the mid 70's to around 80. Upper level energy over the northern plains will shift east along the U.S. Canada border
tonight and will help to flatten out the ridge in the eastern U.S. This will help to set up the best moisture axis in a southwest to northeast fashion with the highest PW values setting up over our
northwestern CWA. The best chances of rain will be over our northwestern CWA tonight. Lows tonight will be quite mild in the low to mid 60's. [Me picking up some interest]...


The large scale pattern then becomes somewhat interesting as we head into the Wednesday through Thursday night time frame. Models are in good agreement that we will see a confluent mid and
upper level flow develop from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will be supportive of that front leaning over and becoming west to east oriented somewhere
across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. This setup can be a heavy rain producer. We will keep close tabs on this potential. The good news is that we need the rainfall. Thus, we could stand to pick up a few inches (or even more) without any worries of excessive runoff.


Global models then become divergent as we get into late this week. There is some loose consensus that the convergent flow will break down and an upper level trough will eject out of the western United States. However, impacts on sensible weather are a tough call out that far.

In term of temperatures, we will see a downward trend throughout the work week as clouds and precipitation become bigger players. The eventual position of that front will also come into play from
mid to late week.


Widespread light rainfall over the entire area during the day, but by Saturday evening, all precipitation will have shifted east of the Ozarks, bringing a very pleasant evening for the region. Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the low to mid 50's.


Southwest flow aloft quickly re-establishes itself on Sunday bringing surface temperatures back into the 80s. Dew points in the 50's and low 60's will make conditions feel less humid than what we've experienced over the past couple weeks. See more at!

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Last weather work week for September 2017 in Taney County!

The deep trough over the western U.S. will slowly creep eastward on Monday and Tuesday. Upper level heights over the area may be again a tad lower which means high temperatures only in the middle 80's for Monday. Model guidance suggest a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm over the Central Missouri area Monday afternoon and evening. (Think sluggish weather and you'd probable be spot on)! Yawn...


Computer model guidance shows a better chance for scattered showers and storms over the western area on Tuesday...mainly west of Highway 65 ahead of that oh so slow moving cold front. No severe weather is expected as significant lifting will not be around. The front will slowly move through the area on Wednesday. Try and picture molasses on a winter morning moving downhill. There will be additional chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms before the rain chances dry up. We do not expect every location to see rainfall through midweek or much rainfall if any falls. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side. So, the drought begun last month will carry forward....


Taney County MO - Finally, the heat that's been hanging over our heads for over a week will be lifting out. Cooler weather, courtesy of the aforementioned front, will begin moving in Wednesday and on through the rest of the last week of the month! We can then expect more seasonable temperatures along with dry weather to persist on through the weekend. Then, as a bonus, we may see some rainfall come Monday, October the 2nd! In the meantime, the lack of any significant rainfall for the past thirty days will mean more trees turning color just a tad early on...

Monday, September 18, 2017

Taney County Work Week 3!


For Monday, the best rain chances look to be from southeast Kansas into central Missouri (Taney County will once again miss the boat), with lesser amounts as you you head south. Given clouds and rainfall potential instability looks rather meager for any severe weather threat at this time. Highs will be warmest along the Arkansas border with readings in the middle 80's, tapering off to the middle 70's in central Missouri.

For Monday night, low level jet re-establishes itself across Kansas, with the jet then nosing into northeast Kansas late. Storms will be possible again in the vicinity of the jet across mainly Kansas and into northern Missouri. However, cannot rule out some isolated activity further south and east of the area in broad warm advection regime. Will keep lower end probabilities going given flow pattern. Lows will drop into the middle 60's.


Vigorous trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, while zonal to slightly southwesterly flow continues across the local area. With ample sunshine could see some isolated showers/storms develop, which should diminish by Tuesday night. Pressure gradient tightens and will likely see breezy and warm conditions, with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 80's.


For Wednesday through Sunday, highly amplified pattern will persist across the conus with a long wave trough across the west and strong ridging east. The forecast area will be between these two system, with more influence from the ridge. At this point it looks sadly like mainly a dry pattern for the most part, with most of the widespread precipitation chances remaining well to our west. However we will be on the edge of the deeper southwesterly flow so cannot rule out precipitation chances from time to time. Temperatures look to remain above normal through the period with the warmest days looking to be Wednesday and Thursday.


The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.
Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Taney County week three in 2017!

I decided to skip the weather for the second week of September as it was too boring for words.


After the potential for some rain showers over the weekend, courtesy of a front that will try and push south into the central Plains and northern Missouri, things may then warm up a bit...

The GFS has come in with a more amplified southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. Versus previous runs. The GFS five wave charts also support the more amplified pattern. Even the ECMWF model is trending this way. We may therefore hang onto the above normal temperatures along with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. See more at!


The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.
Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

Monday, September 4, 2017

Taney County MO September work week one!

After a warm and windy Labor Day, a cold front will be through the entire area by Tuesday morning. We expect post frontal showers to be possible for the first half of the day. Continued gusty north winds will usher in much cooler air and temps may actually fall throughout the day into the low 70's. Skies should then clear during the afternoon and evening.

High pressure moves over the area Wednesday and Thursday. High temps both days will struggle to reach 70 with lows in the mid to upper 40s in most locations. Northwest flow will continue through
the rest of the week. High temps late week into the weekend look below average with no precipitation chances. See more at!

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Labor Day 2017 weather forecast!

A deep upper level trough or area of disturbance will drop south out of the northern plains late Monday into Monday night. This will send a cold front toward our area.

That said, Monday (aka Labor Day) looks to be very warm ahead of the front with highs around 90 degrees in most locations, (heck a few low 90s are even possible across SE Kansas and western Missouri given 850mb temps between 20-22C). Low level moisture will also be on the increase, so it will feel sticky with heat indices in the middle to upper 90's. Most of the daytime hours will be dry Monday. Wind speeds will also be on the increase during the day. So get those grills out, party hardy and enjoy the last holiday of the summer!

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Weather for Taney Country last week of August 2017!


An area of disturbance will spread south towards the area today, then will move through the area tonight into Monday.

As the trough moves south Sunday, an associated cold front will move through the area. Scattered showers and storms should be able to develop along the front, especially north of I-44 as instability increases with the heating of the day. As the front moves south of I-44 tonight into Monday coverage should decrease but a few showers/storms will remain possible.

As instability increases Monday afternoon and evening a few strong storms will be possible, again mainly north of I-44. The main risk will be winds in excess of 50 mph and hail to the size of nickels in a few of the strongest storms.

Highs this Sunday afternoon should be able to top out in the lower to middle 80's as highs in the lower 80's are expected on Sunday. An upper level ridge will remain across the western CONUS through much of the week leaving the area in a northwest flow upper level pattern. This will keep the below normal conditions in place across the area as highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's occur each afternoon.


At this time we do not expect much in way of rain behind the front Tuesday through Thursday. Late this week into the weekend we may see moisture from the remnants of Harvey try to spread north into area. This could bring some rain chances to the area but confidence is low in the track of the system and medium range models remain inconsistent from run to run and each other.

TD "Harvey" will then track across northern Mississippi on Thursday and western Tennessee Thursday night. Almost all of the precipitation will remain southeast of the CWA, but up to a quarter inch may affect the far southeast portion of Oregon county.


The upcoming holiday weekend looks to be dry across the area with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on Friday, but warming back to more normal readings in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday in the wake of the tropical system.

A cold front is forecast to push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning which will bring the next chance of showers/thunderstorms to the region from the northwest. This will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Tuesday into the middle of next week.

Sunday, August 20, 2017

While there be a travel crisis on August 21?

Beginning in the morning hours on the East Coast and then running for for some time afterwards, millions of people all across the nation will have a chance to experience a full eclipse of the sun! This is something that hasn't happened of such extent in the US for over ninety years, and so, is a very rare event. Millions of dollars have been spent on viewing glasses and hotel reservations. The only big question that remains will be one of cloud cover.... [Begin the background music for Jaws]

Picture for yourself among millions of other cars on the road that day, all full of eager solar eclipse viewers vying for  a good patch of clear sky. The computer generated map (above) of clouds for August the 21st paint a somewhat troublesome picture for parts of the US along the path of totality. My home state of Missouri looks to be especially problematic and I can just imagine the chaos as tens of thousands of cars all scramble in a mad dash to catch was will be about a two minute event. And to make things even more interesting, it'll be getting rather dark for them too!

Monday, August 7, 2017

August 21, 2017 weather for the eclipse of the sun!

Latest computer generated cloud forecast!
Forsyth MO - Slowly but with gaining momentum, people all over are talking about the coming solar eclipse where millions will have a chance to experience totality. And sure, even though the 'event' last for just a span of minutes, that won't stop people from driving long distances to experience this rare solar phenomena.

Where, I reside in Forsyth Missouri in Taney County, we will get some bang for the buck as the sun will become up to 90% obscured sometime around 11:43 AM'ish on an otherwise plain Jane Monday in August. And while I am retired and could easily drive a hundred or so miles to catch a complete eclipse, I've chosen to content myself with what I could see from my current location. To that end, I purchased a 5-Pack Premium ISO and CE Certified Lunt Solar Eclipse Glasses that cost about thirteen dollars. I plan to pass out the other 4 to a friend so that she and her kids can also enjoy the fun.

But, as it often the case, there is a potential fly in the cosmic ointment! If the morning of the event happens to be cloudy or even hazy, this whole deal could be a bust. To that end, I will be selecting four sites that could be reached by car when given a day or so notice. The map, at right, shows some locales that will experience a complete eclipse. I have chosen the following cities that I will keep track of in the days leading up to the event on the 21st. They are; Sedalia, Jefferson City, Columbia and Cuba. All of which lie in Missouri and are reachable by automobiles. The best location of the bunch would be Columbia as it lies smack dab in the center of the swath of totality! I will be update the expected cloud coverage (or hopefully lack of it) beginning a week before the event on August the 14th. My updates will be posted at

When planning to view the eclipse, being flexible and ready to move out to a better and clearer sky may be a plus. NASA has an interactive map that can serve as an aid to planning locations and to knowing exact times that the eclipse will begin and end.... Also, note that the next time an event on this scale will not occur until 2024 & 2045... The one in 2024 will be within easy driving distance from places like Branson and Forsyth!
April 8, 2024 - See article
August 12,2045

Latest August 21 Eclipse Update: 
During the window between noon and 2 pm, we expect the majority of the local area to see partly cloudy skies with some occasional high cirrus clouds and some cumulus clouds developing by midday or early afternoon. At the time of the peak of the eclipse, we have about a 10 to 20 percent chance of a pop up shower or storm. Temperatures will top out around the lower 90s today but during the eclipse we may see a brief drop or lag in temperature climb. We wouldn't be surprised to see some weather stations across central Missouri and eastern Ozarks drop several degrees by 1 pm.

Make sure to use only approved viewing equipment - Click here for a list!

See also:

Eclipse Phenomena: What to Watch For

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Notes on August 2016 vs 2017

 As months go, August 2016 was pretty average. We had 15 days that were above the average temperatures of 89ºF. With a combine average of 79.3ºF versus a 30 year historical average of 76.5ºF, it was easy to see that those warmer nighttime temperatures were something to be concerned about. (After all, the only true measurement of Global warming comes from just how low the temps drop during the nighttime)! That said, one must remember that my weather station is just one single dot of data and really did not mean much when data from all over the world is looked at...
Rainfall, at 2.01 inches was considerably behind the 'normal average' of 3.41 inches. That merely reflected the mini drought we were in for the entire year. Something that had since been corrected with the flooding rains of April and May of 2017! As of August 2017, we were still about 4 inches ahead of the average. That was the good news, the bad news is that all the other months, thus far, had fallen short of the average for rainfall.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Taney County Weather Aug 6 to the 12th!


Starting later on Friday, August the 5th, the next 48 hours looks to be a rather wet period with several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall expected.

Periods of heavy rain and storms will be ongoing through the day Sunday and through early Monday morning as a very slow moving frontal boundary drifts to the southeast into northern Arkansas. This will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. This will be especially true for storms that train over the same areas along the slow moving front. This period looks to have the highest potential for flooding rains to occur with 2 to 4 inches currently forecast by the majority of the models.


Monday afternoon through the majority of Wednesday looks more quiet with surface high pressure moving over the area behind the weekend storm system. This will be a needed break as models bring another system with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to the area for the later half of the week. Depending on the model you look at the rain could begin again as early as late Wednesday night to Thursday morning and continue into next weekend.

The one silver lining with the forecast is the unseasonably cool temperatures that are expected through next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to only climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's each day.


A front will pass south through the Ozarks on Friday as the stronger short wave energy dives across the southern Great Lakes. The potential for showers and storms will continue into Friday, especially across southern Missouri.


The big question then remains how far south of the area that front will get from this weekend into early next week. The west- northwest flow aloft will likely persist through the entire period. At this time, it still appears that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Areas of central Missouri may see little in the way of precipitation this weekend.

Global models and ensembles continue to indicate that the heaviest swath of rainfall may remain just to the west and south of the Missouri Ozarks from south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is still decent consensus for a solid 3-6" of rainfall through the weekend across that area. Areas of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri are in line to get more in the 1-3" range, with the highest amounts near the Oklahoma border.

There are no plans for any kind of Flash Flood Watch at this time with the best signal for excessive rainfall remaining to our west and south. However, we will continue to monitor the situation closely as a shift to the northeast with the heavy rainfall axis may warrant a threat for flooding across portions of the area.

Our streak of below normal temperatures will continue through at least the middle of next week.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Taney County weather for first week of August 2017!


Weather conditions ideal for outdoor activities are expected through the rest of the weekend and well into next work week.

A Canadian high pressure system will provide a continuous feed of Great Lakes air into the Ozarks Region. This will bring cooler temperatures with comfortable humidity levels on a daily basis. Afternoon highs will warm into the middle 80s from Sunday through Thursday afternoon.

The next chances for precipitation will occur Wednesday through Friday. Although, there doesn't appear to be a signal for widespread rainfall at this time. Therefore, some locations could remain dry into the second week of August.

Monday, July 24, 2017

Weather forecasts for last workweek of July 2017!

MONDAY, July 24, 2017

A few isolated showers/storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern Missouri, generally south of an Anderson, to Springfield to a Salem Missouri line. Coverage in any activity that can develop will be limited and overall most locations should remain dry. Any locations that are effected by any isolated activity should only be so briefly as this activity will be short lived in nature.


Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60's to the lower 70's. An upper level ridge will slowly nudge east across the Plains on Tuesday. Highs will be similar to those today but maybe a degree or two warmer. Moisture will be slow to return so heat index values should again be in the middle to upper 90's Tuesday afternoon.


The ridge will build into the region on Wednesday allowing temperatures in the middle to upper 90's to return. Moisture will also increase allowing heat index values between 100 and 105 to return. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the area on Wednesday.


An upper level shortwave trough will then dive south and push the ridge back to the west Thursday into Friday. A front will slide south through the area during this time and could spark some scattered showers/storms across the area. This may be very similar to the front that moved through the area over the weekend with not widespread coverage in rain occur, being more hit and miss in nature.


Another upper level trough will dive south through the area reinforcing the ridge remain to the west of area. Could be some spotty convection, but again not looking at widespread rain or a washout by any means. This will result in cooler conditions Friday into Monday as highs in the 80's and lows in the lower to middle 60's are expected each day.

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Work week #3 in Taney County MO!

It's a HEAT WAVE!! A high pressure dome will edge closer to the area each day this week. This will shut off any precipitation potential and send high temps into the middle to upper 90's. Have trended temps up a degree or two given such a strong mid level high which looks to come right over us on Thursday and Friday, thus these two days will be the hottest.

Heat indicies will range from 100-110 this week with the highest heat indices Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that Heat Advisories will be needed by mid week. Those with heat sensitives, outdoor workers and those without air conditioning will need to prepare for the heat this week. No precipitation is expected this week given this regime.

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Taney County July work week two!


Moisture will begin to return to the area on Sunday, though overall conditions look pretty reasonable for early to mid July, with highs within a degree or two of 90. There will be an outside chance for a couple of thunderstorms Sunday afternoons with peak heating, but for most places, Sunday should be a dry day.

This period of time will also allow for the lake levels to continue to go down to more reasonable levels....


The upcoming workweek continues to look like very typical for this time of year, with highs each day around 90 and lows a degree or two on either side of 70. What I call the summer doldrums. Overall rain chances will be low, though any given day could bring with it just a couple of short-lived popup thunderstorms with peak afternoon heating. For most of the area, however, it's more likely than not that it will be a dry stretch.


The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure is right over the Ozarks Region this morning. This weather pattern may bring the hottest day so far this Summer season. We will add another degree or so to afternoon temperatures again today. Model guidance under performed on yesterday's surface dew points across portion of Southeast Kansas into Central Missouri where areas saw heat indices over 105. With a similar set up again this afternoon, more areas will see that heat indices between 105 to 108 especially for areas northwest of I-44.


Most of the area should remain rain free through Thursday afternoon. A front will slowly sag southward into the region Thursday night through Saturday midday. We will see scattered shower and storm chances across the area. The overall best chance for rainfall appears to be Friday morning through Friday evening. There may be enough instability for an isolated strong storm or two but we are not expecting widespread severe weather at this time.

General overall rainfall amounts on average will range from 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch. Where storms set up and train over the same area, there could be locally heavier amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible but not widespread in nature. We are not expecting any significant hydro concerns at this time.

The front clears south of the area late Saturday with drier conditions following Sunday into early next week. Another upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build across the region early to middle of next week with more heat and dry weather. It could get quite toasty around the area by middle of next week.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Taney County week of the fourth of July!


I think Monday will be mix of clouds and sun to the north with generally cloudy conditions expected closer to Arkansas. Best rain chances similar to yesterday will reside along the Arkansas border
and portions of far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri later this afternoon and overnight. Lake of The Ozarks region has the lesser rain chances, at least through the short term period, though a rogue shower or storm can't be ruled out across central MO. No widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time due to marginal shear, however, the stronger cells may contain some strong gusty winds.

TUESDAY - Happy Fourth if July!!

A more well established mid-level impulse/vort max will roll into our region, unfortunately right in time for Independence Day festivities.

As we head into Tuesday daytime and evening, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread east and north across the Missouri Ozarks. The threat for severe storms looks marginal, especially for fireworks celebrations in and around Taney county. Any severe threat would be confined to line segments with a damaging wind threat.

As the vortex slowly slides eastward, we'll need to monitor not only a threat for some strong thunderstorm winds, but also localized flash flooding given the slow forward progression of the vort/short wave, which may not fully move out of our area until Wednesday or even by early Thursday.


As the the trough finally clears, a strong upper level ridge should spread east at least temporarily from the Rockies. This should limit rainfall chances and increase afternoon temperatures just a bit. Being on the eastern side of this high, northwesterly flow will still be over our region. Guidance does swing a few minor impulses down our way from the northern plains, which should cause at least a subtle increase in diurnally driven showers/storms. This may also keep temperatures in the middle and upper 80's vs the lower 90's.


We should then get a break in the action on Thursday with at least a low-end chance for storms returning on Friday as a front approaches from the north. Global models then insist on a northwesterly flow aloft becoming more amplified from this weekend into early next week. This would support that front moving south into the Missouri Ozarks, or perhaps even south of the area into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Ultimately, the position of this front will dictate precipitation chances. At this point, we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range from this weekend into early next week.

Temperatures should return to near normal values towards the tail end of this abbreviated work week before we again see a slight cooling trend with the arrival of that front this weekend.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Taney County work week 4 including the Fourth of July!


Showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger into Monday due to a mid level front that becomes established across southern Missouri. Computer model runs, however, don't generate much instability, therefore, severe storms are not expected.

From Tuesday through Thursday night, other than an outside shot of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly warm and dry conditions are expected through the mid week period. Look for the mercury to climb back towards the upper eighty degree mark!

As the work week goes on a weak zonal front will evolve, and eventually re-positions to the southwest toward the weekend. Not only will temperatures warm a few degrees, shower and thunderstorm chances increase.


As a matter of fact, medium range models bring a complex of storms through southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be a possibility, along with a potential severe risk. Shear will be modest, although instability will be sufficient for organized storms as moisture depth increases.

The fourth of July weekend will have the potential for being somewhat active across southern Missouri. Anyone that has plans for participating in outdoor activities should closely monitor later forecasts regarding potential thunderstorm activity for that weekend.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Taney County Work week three in June!


A cooler air mass will spread into the area Monday behind the front that went through on Sunday. Highs will warm into the upper 70's to the lower 80's on Monday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60's occurring during the evening hours.


Warmer conditions will then return Tuesday through the rest of the week as highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's occur each afternoon.


The warming trend will linger into Wednesday as highs reach the upper 80's to low 90's and heat index values warm into the low to mid 90s. Not expecting much in the way of rain chances until about the Thursday time frame.


Heading into Thursday, PW (Precipitable Water) values of 1.5 to around 2.0 inches will be possible along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor, with the higher amounts across south central MO. It looks as if models are keeping the track slightly further to the southeast of the area than last nights model runs. Our thunderstorm chances start on Thursday, but will mainly be over the eastern Ozarks initially as energy from around the tropical system moves into Arkansas and south central MO.


On Friday, a southward moving front will push into the area and offer the best chance at showers and thunderstorms, with the tropical low pushing into the boot heel and quickly into the TN valley. Precipitation may shut off pretty quickly on Friday evening in the wake of the low and front.

Models are showing some differences heading into the weekend. GFS wants to keep things dry behind the front, while ECMWF brings another wave of energy and precipitation into the area Saturday night into Sunday. Will keep the low end pops going through the weekend.
Going with cooler than normal temperatures from the weekend into the early part of next week behind the front with a cooler air mass moving into the region.

Precipitable Water - A measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

June week 2ish weather for Taney County!


Monday will be even warmer as 850mb temps rise to 20C. Most locations along and north of I-44 will reach 90 with a few low 90s possible. With 700mb temps between 10-14C, it will be hard to get
precip, none the less clouds. The exception will be across far south central Missouri (Oregon county) where an isolated shower or storm is possible since the cap will be a tad weaker there.


A strong upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains Tuesday with a trailing front into Kansas and Oklahoma. Areas across the eastern Ozarks may see an afternoon shower or storm however confidence is not high in this given warm mid level temps and little forcing available. With 850mb temps around 20-21C, expect highs around 90 again. Showers and storms will fire in KS and OK Tues evening as shortwave energy approaches. Most or all of this activity will stay west of the area given increasing convective inhibition during the Overnight hours.


Frontal boundary pushes closer Wednesday afternoon and this may be our best shot at showers and storms given that the air mass will likely be pretty unstable. Wind shear looks less than 30kts however instability will be high therefore will need to monitor for stronger storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also looks warm with highs around either side of 90.


Frontal boundary then looks to become diffuse or go stationary across the area from Thursday into the early part of the weekend. A zonal mid level pattern will exist during this time. This signal would suggest several chances for showers and storms during this time frame. Otherwise temps look to remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heat index values this week will likely reach the middle to potentially upper 90s across portions of the area with the areas north and west of Interstate 44 into the Osage Plains favored. While this is not uncommon by any means, it will be the warmest it has "felt" so far this calendar year.

Sunday, June 4, 2017

June work week one for Taney County!


It was beginning to feel a bit like summer, over the weekend, what with the lazy clouds and pop up shower chances. That trend will continue through Sunday, June the 4th and on into the coming work week.... a pretty boring stretch weather wise!


Most of the area should stay dry on Monday, though a couple of showers/storms are possible through early afternoon across the Missouri/Arkansas state line. Cloud cover will clear as the day goes on, with lower dew points building into the area by afternoon and evening.


Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look like very nice days, with highs both days in the upper 70s to around 80, and lows in the 50s.


Upper ridging will begin to build back into the area Thursday into the weekend. There will be chance for thunderstorms late in the workweek as a couple of shortwaves move through the area, though
the overall setup doesn't look terribly impressive. Temperatures look to return to the mid 80s by the end of the workweek into next weekend.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Work week 4 for Taney County!


Some relief is on the way as a surface high will remain in control of the region's weather through Memorial Day with temperatures around 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overall, Monday looks to be a great day for outdoor activities.


The upper level flow for Tuesday looks to be northwesterly. This is in response to a ridge that builds just east of the Rockies. Several reinforcing surface highs will slide out of Canada and across the Plains which should help to keep rain chances limited. A persistent cut-off upper low over the Great Lakes may swing pieces of energy through the upper level flow and bring slight chances for showers and storms between the surface highs in the form of weak cold fronts. None of this activity looks severe at this time.


As we head into this afternoon and early this evening, low level convergence and temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s will likely initiate more scattered thunderstorms from northeastern Kansas into central Missouri. We may then see widely scattered thunderstorm activity begin to shift towards the U.S. 60 corridor in the evening as cold pools become established and that
low level jet begins to redevelop.

The setup for large hail looks good today given steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate deep layer shear, and good CAPE/speed shear in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 Celsius layer). Inspection of
forecast soundings also indicates quite a few matches for large hail with the SARS Sounding Analogue System. With support from indices such as the Large Hail Parameter, we will include a mention of ping pong ball sized hail in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Given steep low level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases, damaging straight line winds also appear possible in areas where cold pools conglomerate and we get bowing segments. At this time,
it appears that the greatest threat for severe storms this afternoon and this evening will be west of U.S. 65 and north of U.S. 60.


Remnants of that MCS may then persist across portions of the central and eastern Missouri Ozarks Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances in the afternoon will then be dictated by convective outflow from morning storms and where that low level convergence zone ends up. Thursday night and early Friday then look fairly dry at this point.


Friday night into Sunday night, an upper level trough will dive south towards and into the region sending a front through the area. This will result in better widespread shower/storm chances across the region as better lift will occur.


Behind the system surface high pressure and dry conditions will build over the area Sunday into early next week as highs warm into the 70s each afternoon during this time....

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Taney County work week #3 for May!


A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected over the CONUS with a long wave trough over the Plains and Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.


The upper level long wave trough axis passes through the day Wednesday. Clouds, maybe some light precipitation will linger into Wed, but hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.


Thursday looks dry again with surface high pressure. In general there is decent agreement with global models of the pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching system.


Surface low pressure moving east over the plains, an approaching upper level trough, a 30 mph low level jet nosing into the region, surface dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s, CAPE values in
excess of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates will all contribute to the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon and into this evening.

The amount of instability and expected updraft strengths are conducive to very large to giant hail production. Current thoughts are for baseball size or larger hail with the strongest storms.
Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The convection early this morning will likely leave boundaries across the area, which will potentially act to enhance storms and rotation this afternoon. Another concern would be the development of a significant cold pool with this system. It would not be out of the question that at some point this system develops a derecho-like nature (squall line with widespread wind damage potential) that would move across the region, taking advantage of the instability in place across the area today. Additionally, 0-3 km bulk shear vectors orientated towards the east at 30-40 knots would support mesovortex tornado potential with any portions of the line bowing towards the east.

The Moderate Risk area from SPC was expanded to the west this morning and now includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas through tonight.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Taney County MO Wx for work week #3!


Warmer conditions will occur as highs in the 80's will occur each afternoon from Sunday to Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days as highs in the middle to possibly upper 80s occur.

Southerly winds will also increase Sunday into mid week and could see gust up to 30 mph during the afternoon each day especially across the southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.


A more activity weather pattern will setup during the middle of the week into next week. An upper level trough will slide south across the west coast today and Monday then kick east on Tuesday
pushing into the Plains by Wednesday. This will push the ridge off to the east and allow the front to sag to the southeast into the area Tuesday night into Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as the better upper level support will remain west and north of the area with the upper level trough path. With the timing expected to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and that instability will be on the weak side should help to limit the overall severe risk Wednesday.

An upper level low will move onto the west coast early this week and dig to the southeast into the Middle of the week. Medium range models then differ on how the the upper levels behaves regarding track and timing to the east after it digs into the southeastern U.S. Therefore, there remains uncertainty on the exact details for the end of the week into next week. What is known is that the low will be to the west and will be able to pull better gulf moisture north ahead of it helping to increase instability across the area. As the low moves to the east, showers and storms will develop and we could see a couple rounds depending on the exact track of the system. There could be the potential for severe weather but when and where we be dependent on the track/timing of the the system and also a flooding risk given the very wet spring so far but there is a lot of uncertainty with when and where. We will likely need to wait for the low to make it on to the west coast and be sampled by the upper air network to get a better handle on the exact track and timing.

Highs around 80 will occur Wednesday and Thursday, then slightly cooler conditions will build over the region as highs in the 70s are expected Friday into the weekend.


A rather wet start to the weekend.


Clouds to beging this day and sun to end it. Look for improving conditions. Some chances for showers and some scattered storms are expected, but we are not looking at high impact weather during this period.


 Looks quiet/dry with surface high pressure moving into MO.

Friday, May 12, 2017

Hail strikes again!

Forsyth MO - Normally, hail falling from the skies is a pretty rare event. Part of the reason is the conditions required to it to form. (Hail forms when thunderstorm updrafts are strong enough to carry water droplets well above the freezing level. This freezing process forms a hailstone, which can grow as additional water freezes onto it. Eventually, the hailstone becomes too heavy for the updrafts to support it and it falls to the ground.) The other reason is that when it does fall, it tends to fall in rather narrow strips and only for short periods of time. It's not unusual for a person in a car to be in dry conditions one minute, a driving rain with hail the next and then back out of the whole deal a few minutes later. Lastly, hail in southwest Missouri is much more likely early into the spring season when enough cold air can be scrounged up!

So, it was amazing to me to see similar hail events, one on March 9 and the other May 11 happened so darn close together. The picture at right was a hailstone that greeted me at my front door. And yes, it was made in the good ol US of A!

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Taney county work week #2!

A slight upper level ridge will be over the southern U.S. And Lower Mississippi River Valley Region to start off this week. Southwesterly winds will be a little breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be joined by warmer temperatures with most locations getting up into the lower 80s both Monday and Tuesday. We might even see a few middle 80's.


A moist and unstable air mass is in place across the area and this will aid in the development of additional showers and storms through Tonight. While the main synoptic front is located across Northern Missouri west into Northern Kansas, an effective front/trough is located further south from Central Missouri back into West Central Oklahoma. Impulses riding up from the south have contributed to pockets of storm development, most remaining just to our north and west thus far. Will be watching the evolution of storms across Southern and Central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening as they approach the area ahead of a lead impulse over the Red River Valley. The atmosphere is ripe for organized storms with 1500j/kg of ML cape along with 40-50kts of effective bulk shear. If storms can get organized then large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Locations along and north of Interstate 44 are most favored for this activity.

Most model guidance thus far has struggled with the evolution of showers and storms and thus caution must be used with them. There is a signal that the heavier axis of showers and storms may be pushed further south into our area tonight vs locations to our north given a strong low level jet developing and interacting with this trough/effective boundary. While uncertainty in this scenario is high, it would have implications on our qpf amounts overnight and this will need to be monitored. A severe threat will exist for most of the night as the environment will not change much. Shear profiles will actually become more favorable for storms heading into the overnight hours.

There will likely be ongoing showers and storms Thursday morning across the area and this will be key as to what it does with the true synoptic front. Models have the front along the Interstate 44 corridor Thursday afternoon. Forecast soundings off the GFS reveal a class splitting super cell profile with large hail being the most prominent threat. Mid level lapse rates will be steep and CAPE will be plentiful especially in the hail growth zone. Thinking that robust thunderstorm development is possible along the front in the afternoon with hail to the size of golf balls possible. There is a conditional threat for a tornado if storms can ride the front and increase effective helicities. This will be evaluated more closer to tomorrow. A Slight risk for severe storms is across most of the area for Thursday with locations along and south of Interstate 44 most likely to be affected.


Slightly cooler weather returns for the end of the week.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Taney County Work week 1!


A big improvement in weather conditions will be had Monday as the upper low lifts off to the northeast. The dry weather will persist into Tuesday, but the dry spell will not last long.

Rain and scattered storms should be ongoing once again through the day Wednesday and continue into early Thursday morning. Current expectations with this system will be for an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall. There is some indication that the frontal lift will act to enhance the QPF where CAPE is limited. This will allow for some embedded thunderstorms which may produce rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour at times.

Despite the expectation of more strati-form rainfall with this system, the antecedent saturated soil conditions, ongoing flooding and terrain effects across the Ozarks would bring the potential for flash flooding to occur. As a result a Flash Flood Watch will be issued for all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas from 06z Wednesday through 12z Thursday.

A cooler weather pattern will set up for late week as the region comes under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of the deepening upper level trough.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Bull Shoals to flood?

Forsyth Mo. - It's late April in 2017 and once again heavy rains were threatening to inundate two local parks; Shadow Rock and River Run!

After getting doused with over three inches of rainfall recently, there is a strong likelihood that we will be positively drenched during the last weekend of the an otherwise nice spring month! The national Weather Service is predicting as much as eight inches over a broad area of the southwest Missouri watershed and that typically spells trouble for some people who live near the Tri-Lakes water way.

If Bull Shoals lake gets much over 675 feet MSL, both River Run and nearby Shadow Rock Parks will likely close up for the balance of the summer and even possibly for the entire summer season. Should that happen, a number of things will be negatively impacted including; local convenience stores, area campers, planned outdoor park events and revenue for the City of Forsyth!

As of April the 27th, the lake level at Bull Shoals was at 664.36 feet. If the rains come as predicted, that level would surely grow and both reservoirs (Beaver and Table Rock) are at full capacity. That combined with saturated soils would mean that most any water that fell would be dumped downstream where it would back up at the Arkansas border where the Bull Shoals dam is located.

Should we all start building Arks?

Taney County MO. - After a recent spate of heavy rainfall that dropped three and three quarters of rain or more over our area, the National Weather Service is calling for yet another round starting on Friday, April 28! Should this occur in the manner shown in the above graphic, it would definitely impact the upper reservoirs of the chain of three large lakes that form Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals. (The short strip of water known as Taneycomo which connects both Table Rock and Bull Shoals could also be severely impacted if rainfalls meet or exceed the forecast amounts).

As of April the 27th, Beaver Lake that form the headwaters of the chain, was already at 1,125.98 feet which was above the full pool level of 1,121.0 feet! Note that the graphic shows a chance for rain potential to be over 10 inches. That much water falling on an already water soaked watershed would be immediately dumped into the lake with little in the way of absorption. This extra water would then be released at the dam into Table Rock lake which would also be 'under the gun' so to speak. Without going into too much detail, that's one heck of a lot of water that will be headed somewhere in a hurry! Remembering that while the system can easily handle such a load, the real problems would arise out of just how fast the whole system is impacted. Too much rain all at once would simply overload the whole smear...

Having stated all that, remember that what is forecast to happen and what actually happens can be worlds apart. Also, please note that this post constitutes the musing of an old fart with no formal training in the weather what so ever.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Taney County Work week four!

The start of the work week will feature dry conditions and a warming trend. Highs by Tuesday should warm back into the upper 70's.


Models then bring a storm system out into the central U.S. From Tuesday night into Wednesday. A fair amount of spread remains regarding the eventual track of the surface low associated with this system. Some models track it along the Missouri/Arkansas border while others have it moving east across central Missouri.

It does look like an elevated mixed layer (EML) will advect over the region ahead of this system with Gulf of Mexico moisture returning northward into the region. This should lead to moderate amounts of instability (especially over southern Missouri) as the system arrives Tuesday night. Deep layer shear will also be supportive of organized convection.

One of the bigger questions to answer is whether or not convection can fire along or ahead of an incoming cold front given that a decent capping inversion will be in place. It is quite possible that thunderstorms may be slightly post-frontal. Regardless, CAPE/shear profiles alone are supportive of at least a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

This system looks as if it will be fairly progressive moving through. However, a widespread one to two inch rainfall is quite possible across the region. With streams and rivers already high, this may lead to some hydro concerns.


We may then see another day or two of quiet weather behind the midweek system before active weather returns by next weekend. Global models continue to indicate a large scale setup that would favor more heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe storms. Details regarding these potential hazards will become clearer throughout the upcoming week.


Confidence in a flooding event has therefore become high enough to post a Flash Flood Watch (will be out by 4 AM) for all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme Southeastern Kansas from Friday night through Sunday. Widespread storm total amounts are still expected to be in the 3-6" range, but with a caveat. With convective elements in play for the duration of the event, locally higher amounts are quite likely (in the 8" plus range). It is still a bit early to nail down where the heaviest rain will fall.

Not to be outdone, the potential for severe storms will also be present with this setup starting as early as Friday night. South of that strengthening front, moderate amounts of instability will be present with sufficient deep layer shear for strong to severe storms. If supercells can develop, large hail to the size of golf balls would be possible. The tornado threat will have to be monitored as super cell motions would tend to parallel the front. Even north of the front, elevated hailers will be possible.

The key to the severe potential Friday night will be where that front sets up. The NAM has it draped across south-central Missouri with the ECMWF a bit farther north. In contrast, the GFS keeps it just south of the Arkansas border. We are leaning towards that front at least making it as far north as southern Missouri. The severe threat would then continue into Saturday, especially along and south of where that front sets up.

The main upper level support for this system will then pull through the region from Sunday into Sunday night. The main shower/thunderstorm threat should begin to diminish later in the day on Sunday, however some light wrap-around precipitation will remain possible into Sunday night or even Monday.