Sunday, August 20, 2017

While there be a travel crisis on August 21?

Beginning in the morning hours on the East Coast and then running for for some time afterwards, millions of people all across the nation will have a chance to experience a full eclipse of the sun! This is something that hasn't happened of such extent in the US for over ninety years, and so, is a very rare event. Millions of dollars have been spent on viewing glasses and hotel reservations. The only big question that remains will be one of cloud cover.... [Begin the background music for Jaws]

Picture for yourself among millions of other cars on the road that day, all full of eager solar eclipse viewers vying for  a good patch of clear sky. The computer generated map (above) of clouds for August the 21st paint a somewhat troublesome picture for parts of the US along the path of totality. My home state of Missouri looks to be especially problematic and I can just imagine the chaos as tens of thousands of cars all scramble in a mad dash to catch was will be about a two minute event. And to make things even more interesting, it'll be getting rather dark for them too!

Monday, August 7, 2017

August 21, 2017 weather for the eclipse of the sun!

Latest computer generated cloud forecast!
Forsyth MO - Slowly but with gaining momentum, people all over are talking about the coming solar eclipse where millions will have a chance to experience totality. And sure, even though the 'event' last for just a span of minutes, that won't stop people from driving long distances to experience this rare solar phenomena.

Where, I reside in Forsyth Missouri in Taney County, we will get some bang for the buck as the sun will become up to 90% obscured sometime around 11:43 AM'ish on an otherwise plain Jane Monday in August. And while I am retired and could easily drive a hundred or so miles to catch a complete eclipse, I've chosen to content myself with what I could see from my current location. To that end, I purchased a 5-Pack Premium ISO and CE Certified Lunt Solar Eclipse Glasses that cost about thirteen dollars. I plan to pass out the other 4 to a friend so that she and her kids can also enjoy the fun.

But, as it often the case, there is a potential fly in the cosmic ointment! If the morning of the event happens to be cloudy or even hazy, this whole deal could be a bust. To that end, I will be selecting four sites that could be reached by car when given a day or so notice. The map, at right, shows some locales that will experience a complete eclipse. I have chosen the following cities that I will keep track of in the days leading up to the event on the 21st. They are; Sedalia, Jefferson City, Columbia and Cuba. All of which lie in Missouri and are reachable by automobiles. The best location of the bunch would be Columbia as it lies smack dab in the center of the swath of totality! I will be update the expected cloud coverage (or hopefully lack of it) beginning a week before the event on August the 14th. My updates will be posted at

When planning to view the eclipse, being flexible and ready to move out to a better and clearer sky may be a plus. NASA has an interactive map that can serve as an aid to planning locations and to knowing exact times that the eclipse will begin and end.... Also, note that the next time an event on this scale will not occur until 2024 & 2045... The one in 2024 will be within easy driving distance from places like Branson and Forsyth!
April 8, 2024 - See article
August 12,2045

Latest August 21 Eclipse Update: 
During the window between noon and 2 pm, we expect the majority of the local area to see partly cloudy skies with some occasional high cirrus clouds and some cumulus clouds developing by midday or early afternoon. At the time of the peak of the eclipse, we have about a 10 to 20 percent chance of a pop up shower or storm. Temperatures will top out around the lower 90s today but during the eclipse we may see a brief drop or lag in temperature climb. We wouldn't be surprised to see some weather stations across central Missouri and eastern Ozarks drop several degrees by 1 pm.

Make sure to use only approved viewing equipment - Click here for a list!

See also:

Eclipse Phenomena: What to Watch For

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Notes on August 2016 vs 2017

 As months go, August 2016 was pretty average. We had 15 days that were above the average temperatures of 89ºF. With a combine average of 79.3ºF versus a 30 year historical average of 76.5ºF, it was easy to see that those warmer nighttime temperatures were something to be concerned about. (After all, the only true measurement of Global warming comes from just how low the temps drop during the nighttime)! That said, one must remember that my weather station is just one single dot of data and really did not mean much when data from all over the world is looked at...
Rainfall, at 2.01 inches was considerably behind the 'normal average' of 3.41 inches. That merely reflected the mini drought we were in for the entire year. Something that had since been corrected with the flooding rains of April and May of 2017! As of August 2017, we were still about 4 inches ahead of the average. That was the good news, the bad news is that all the other months, thus far, had fallen short of the average for rainfall.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Taney County Weather Aug 6 to the 12th!


Starting later on Friday, August the 5th, the next 48 hours looks to be a rather wet period with several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall expected.

Periods of heavy rain and storms will be ongoing through the day Sunday and through early Monday morning as a very slow moving frontal boundary drifts to the southeast into northern Arkansas. This will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. This will be especially true for storms that train over the same areas along the slow moving front. This period looks to have the highest potential for flooding rains to occur with 2 to 4 inches currently forecast by the majority of the models.


Monday afternoon through the majority of Wednesday looks more quiet with surface high pressure moving over the area behind the weekend storm system. This will be a needed break as models bring another system with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to the area for the later half of the week. Depending on the model you look at the rain could begin again as early as late Wednesday night to Thursday morning and continue into next weekend.

The one silver lining with the forecast is the unseasonably cool temperatures that are expected through next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to only climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's each day.


A front will pass south through the Ozarks on Friday as the stronger short wave energy dives across the southern Great Lakes. The potential for showers and storms will continue into Friday, especially across southern Missouri.


The big question then remains how far south of the area that front will get from this weekend into early next week. The west- northwest flow aloft will likely persist through the entire period. At this time, it still appears that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Areas of central Missouri may see little in the way of precipitation this weekend.

Global models and ensembles continue to indicate that the heaviest swath of rainfall may remain just to the west and south of the Missouri Ozarks from south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is still decent consensus for a solid 3-6" of rainfall through the weekend across that area. Areas of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri are in line to get more in the 1-3" range, with the highest amounts near the Oklahoma border.

There are no plans for any kind of Flash Flood Watch at this time with the best signal for excessive rainfall remaining to our west and south. However, we will continue to monitor the situation closely as a shift to the northeast with the heavy rainfall axis may warrant a threat for flooding across portions of the area.

Our streak of below normal temperatures will continue through at least the middle of next week.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Taney County weather for first week of August 2017!


Weather conditions ideal for outdoor activities are expected through the rest of the weekend and well into next work week.

A Canadian high pressure system will provide a continuous feed of Great Lakes air into the Ozarks Region. This will bring cooler temperatures with comfortable humidity levels on a daily basis. Afternoon highs will warm into the middle 80s from Sunday through Thursday afternoon.

The next chances for precipitation will occur Wednesday through Friday. Although, there doesn't appear to be a signal for widespread rainfall at this time. Therefore, some locations could remain dry into the second week of August.

Monday, July 24, 2017

Weather forecasts for last workweek of July 2017!

MONDAY, July 24, 2017

A few isolated showers/storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern Missouri, generally south of an Anderson, to Springfield to a Salem Missouri line. Coverage in any activity that can develop will be limited and overall most locations should remain dry. Any locations that are effected by any isolated activity should only be so briefly as this activity will be short lived in nature.


Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60's to the lower 70's. An upper level ridge will slowly nudge east across the Plains on Tuesday. Highs will be similar to those today but maybe a degree or two warmer. Moisture will be slow to return so heat index values should again be in the middle to upper 90's Tuesday afternoon.


The ridge will build into the region on Wednesday allowing temperatures in the middle to upper 90's to return. Moisture will also increase allowing heat index values between 100 and 105 to return. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the area on Wednesday.


An upper level shortwave trough will then dive south and push the ridge back to the west Thursday into Friday. A front will slide south through the area during this time and could spark some scattered showers/storms across the area. This may be very similar to the front that moved through the area over the weekend with not widespread coverage in rain occur, being more hit and miss in nature.


Another upper level trough will dive south through the area reinforcing the ridge remain to the west of area. Could be some spotty convection, but again not looking at widespread rain or a washout by any means. This will result in cooler conditions Friday into Monday as highs in the 80's and lows in the lower to middle 60's are expected each day.

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Work week #3 in Taney County MO!

It's a HEAT WAVE!! A high pressure dome will edge closer to the area each day this week. This will shut off any precipitation potential and send high temps into the middle to upper 90's. Have trended temps up a degree or two given such a strong mid level high which looks to come right over us on Thursday and Friday, thus these two days will be the hottest.

Heat indicies will range from 100-110 this week with the highest heat indices Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that Heat Advisories will be needed by mid week. Those with heat sensitives, outdoor workers and those without air conditioning will need to prepare for the heat this week. No precipitation is expected this week given this regime.

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Taney County July work week two!


Moisture will begin to return to the area on Sunday, though overall conditions look pretty reasonable for early to mid July, with highs within a degree or two of 90. There will be an outside chance for a couple of thunderstorms Sunday afternoons with peak heating, but for most places, Sunday should be a dry day.

This period of time will also allow for the lake levels to continue to go down to more reasonable levels....


The upcoming workweek continues to look like very typical for this time of year, with highs each day around 90 and lows a degree or two on either side of 70. What I call the summer doldrums. Overall rain chances will be low, though any given day could bring with it just a couple of short-lived popup thunderstorms with peak afternoon heating. For most of the area, however, it's more likely than not that it will be a dry stretch.


The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure is right over the Ozarks Region this morning. This weather pattern may bring the hottest day so far this Summer season. We will add another degree or so to afternoon temperatures again today. Model guidance under performed on yesterday's surface dew points across portion of Southeast Kansas into Central Missouri where areas saw heat indices over 105. With a similar set up again this afternoon, more areas will see that heat indices between 105 to 108 especially for areas northwest of I-44.


Most of the area should remain rain free through Thursday afternoon. A front will slowly sag southward into the region Thursday night through Saturday midday. We will see scattered shower and storm chances across the area. The overall best chance for rainfall appears to be Friday morning through Friday evening. There may be enough instability for an isolated strong storm or two but we are not expecting widespread severe weather at this time.

General overall rainfall amounts on average will range from 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch. Where storms set up and train over the same area, there could be locally heavier amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible but not widespread in nature. We are not expecting any significant hydro concerns at this time.

The front clears south of the area late Saturday with drier conditions following Sunday into early next week. Another upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build across the region early to middle of next week with more heat and dry weather. It could get quite toasty around the area by middle of next week.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Taney County week of the fourth of July!


I think Monday will be mix of clouds and sun to the north with generally cloudy conditions expected closer to Arkansas. Best rain chances similar to yesterday will reside along the Arkansas border
and portions of far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri later this afternoon and overnight. Lake of The Ozarks region has the lesser rain chances, at least through the short term period, though a rogue shower or storm can't be ruled out across central MO. No widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time due to marginal shear, however, the stronger cells may contain some strong gusty winds.

TUESDAY - Happy Fourth if July!!

A more well established mid-level impulse/vort max will roll into our region, unfortunately right in time for Independence Day festivities.

As we head into Tuesday daytime and evening, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread east and north across the Missouri Ozarks. The threat for severe storms looks marginal, especially for fireworks celebrations in and around Taney county. Any severe threat would be confined to line segments with a damaging wind threat.

As the vortex slowly slides eastward, we'll need to monitor not only a threat for some strong thunderstorm winds, but also localized flash flooding given the slow forward progression of the vort/short wave, which may not fully move out of our area until Wednesday or even by early Thursday.


As the the trough finally clears, a strong upper level ridge should spread east at least temporarily from the Rockies. This should limit rainfall chances and increase afternoon temperatures just a bit. Being on the eastern side of this high, northwesterly flow will still be over our region. Guidance does swing a few minor impulses down our way from the northern plains, which should cause at least a subtle increase in diurnally driven showers/storms. This may also keep temperatures in the middle and upper 80's vs the lower 90's.


We should then get a break in the action on Thursday with at least a low-end chance for storms returning on Friday as a front approaches from the north. Global models then insist on a northwesterly flow aloft becoming more amplified from this weekend into early next week. This would support that front moving south into the Missouri Ozarks, or perhaps even south of the area into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Ultimately, the position of this front will dictate precipitation chances. At this point, we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range from this weekend into early next week.

Temperatures should return to near normal values towards the tail end of this abbreviated work week before we again see a slight cooling trend with the arrival of that front this weekend.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Taney County work week 4 including the Fourth of July!


Showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger into Monday due to a mid level front that becomes established across southern Missouri. Computer model runs, however, don't generate much instability, therefore, severe storms are not expected.

From Tuesday through Thursday night, other than an outside shot of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly warm and dry conditions are expected through the mid week period. Look for the mercury to climb back towards the upper eighty degree mark!

As the work week goes on a weak zonal front will evolve, and eventually re-positions to the southwest toward the weekend. Not only will temperatures warm a few degrees, shower and thunderstorm chances increase.


As a matter of fact, medium range models bring a complex of storms through southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be a possibility, along with a potential severe risk. Shear will be modest, although instability will be sufficient for organized storms as moisture depth increases.

The fourth of July weekend will have the potential for being somewhat active across southern Missouri. Anyone that has plans for participating in outdoor activities should closely monitor later forecasts regarding potential thunderstorm activity for that weekend.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Taney County Work week three in June!


A cooler air mass will spread into the area Monday behind the front that went through on Sunday. Highs will warm into the upper 70's to the lower 80's on Monday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60's occurring during the evening hours.


Warmer conditions will then return Tuesday through the rest of the week as highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's occur each afternoon.


The warming trend will linger into Wednesday as highs reach the upper 80's to low 90's and heat index values warm into the low to mid 90s. Not expecting much in the way of rain chances until about the Thursday time frame.


Heading into Thursday, PW (Precipitable Water) values of 1.5 to around 2.0 inches will be possible along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor, with the higher amounts across south central MO. It looks as if models are keeping the track slightly further to the southeast of the area than last nights model runs. Our thunderstorm chances start on Thursday, but will mainly be over the eastern Ozarks initially as energy from around the tropical system moves into Arkansas and south central MO.


On Friday, a southward moving front will push into the area and offer the best chance at showers and thunderstorms, with the tropical low pushing into the boot heel and quickly into the TN valley. Precipitation may shut off pretty quickly on Friday evening in the wake of the low and front.

Models are showing some differences heading into the weekend. GFS wants to keep things dry behind the front, while ECMWF brings another wave of energy and precipitation into the area Saturday night into Sunday. Will keep the low end pops going through the weekend.
Going with cooler than normal temperatures from the weekend into the early part of next week behind the front with a cooler air mass moving into the region.

Precipitable Water - A measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

June week 2ish weather for Taney County!


Monday will be even warmer as 850mb temps rise to 20C. Most locations along and north of I-44 will reach 90 with a few low 90s possible. With 700mb temps between 10-14C, it will be hard to get
precip, none the less clouds. The exception will be across far south central Missouri (Oregon county) where an isolated shower or storm is possible since the cap will be a tad weaker there.


A strong upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains Tuesday with a trailing front into Kansas and Oklahoma. Areas across the eastern Ozarks may see an afternoon shower or storm however confidence is not high in this given warm mid level temps and little forcing available. With 850mb temps around 20-21C, expect highs around 90 again. Showers and storms will fire in KS and OK Tues evening as shortwave energy approaches. Most or all of this activity will stay west of the area given increasing convective inhibition during the Overnight hours.


Frontal boundary pushes closer Wednesday afternoon and this may be our best shot at showers and storms given that the air mass will likely be pretty unstable. Wind shear looks less than 30kts however instability will be high therefore will need to monitor for stronger storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also looks warm with highs around either side of 90.


Frontal boundary then looks to become diffuse or go stationary across the area from Thursday into the early part of the weekend. A zonal mid level pattern will exist during this time. This signal would suggest several chances for showers and storms during this time frame. Otherwise temps look to remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heat index values this week will likely reach the middle to potentially upper 90s across portions of the area with the areas north and west of Interstate 44 into the Osage Plains favored. While this is not uncommon by any means, it will be the warmest it has "felt" so far this calendar year.

Sunday, June 4, 2017

June work week one for Taney County!


It was beginning to feel a bit like summer, over the weekend, what with the lazy clouds and pop up shower chances. That trend will continue through Sunday, June the 4th and on into the coming work week.... a pretty boring stretch weather wise!


Most of the area should stay dry on Monday, though a couple of showers/storms are possible through early afternoon across the Missouri/Arkansas state line. Cloud cover will clear as the day goes on, with lower dew points building into the area by afternoon and evening.


Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look like very nice days, with highs both days in the upper 70s to around 80, and lows in the 50s.


Upper ridging will begin to build back into the area Thursday into the weekend. There will be chance for thunderstorms late in the workweek as a couple of shortwaves move through the area, though
the overall setup doesn't look terribly impressive. Temperatures look to return to the mid 80s by the end of the workweek into next weekend.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Work week 4 for Taney County!


Some relief is on the way as a surface high will remain in control of the region's weather through Memorial Day with temperatures around 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overall, Monday looks to be a great day for outdoor activities.


The upper level flow for Tuesday looks to be northwesterly. This is in response to a ridge that builds just east of the Rockies. Several reinforcing surface highs will slide out of Canada and across the Plains which should help to keep rain chances limited. A persistent cut-off upper low over the Great Lakes may swing pieces of energy through the upper level flow and bring slight chances for showers and storms between the surface highs in the form of weak cold fronts. None of this activity looks severe at this time.


As we head into this afternoon and early this evening, low level convergence and temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s will likely initiate more scattered thunderstorms from northeastern Kansas into central Missouri. We may then see widely scattered thunderstorm activity begin to shift towards the U.S. 60 corridor in the evening as cold pools become established and that
low level jet begins to redevelop.

The setup for large hail looks good today given steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate deep layer shear, and good CAPE/speed shear in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 Celsius layer). Inspection of
forecast soundings also indicates quite a few matches for large hail with the SARS Sounding Analogue System. With support from indices such as the Large Hail Parameter, we will include a mention of ping pong ball sized hail in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Given steep low level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases, damaging straight line winds also appear possible in areas where cold pools conglomerate and we get bowing segments. At this time,
it appears that the greatest threat for severe storms this afternoon and this evening will be west of U.S. 65 and north of U.S. 60.


Remnants of that MCS may then persist across portions of the central and eastern Missouri Ozarks Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances in the afternoon will then be dictated by convective outflow from morning storms and where that low level convergence zone ends up. Thursday night and early Friday then look fairly dry at this point.


Friday night into Sunday night, an upper level trough will dive south towards and into the region sending a front through the area. This will result in better widespread shower/storm chances across the region as better lift will occur.


Behind the system surface high pressure and dry conditions will build over the area Sunday into early next week as highs warm into the 70s each afternoon during this time....

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Taney County work week #3 for May!


A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected over the CONUS with a long wave trough over the Plains and Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.


The upper level long wave trough axis passes through the day Wednesday. Clouds, maybe some light precipitation will linger into Wed, but hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.


Thursday looks dry again with surface high pressure. In general there is decent agreement with global models of the pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching system.


Surface low pressure moving east over the plains, an approaching upper level trough, a 30 mph low level jet nosing into the region, surface dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s, CAPE values in
excess of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates will all contribute to the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon and into this evening.

The amount of instability and expected updraft strengths are conducive to very large to giant hail production. Current thoughts are for baseball size or larger hail with the strongest storms.
Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The convection early this morning will likely leave boundaries across the area, which will potentially act to enhance storms and rotation this afternoon. Another concern would be the development of a significant cold pool with this system. It would not be out of the question that at some point this system develops a derecho-like nature (squall line with widespread wind damage potential) that would move across the region, taking advantage of the instability in place across the area today. Additionally, 0-3 km bulk shear vectors orientated towards the east at 30-40 knots would support mesovortex tornado potential with any portions of the line bowing towards the east.

The Moderate Risk area from SPC was expanded to the west this morning and now includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas through tonight.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Taney County MO Wx for work week #3!


Warmer conditions will occur as highs in the 80's will occur each afternoon from Sunday to Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days as highs in the middle to possibly upper 80s occur.

Southerly winds will also increase Sunday into mid week and could see gust up to 30 mph during the afternoon each day especially across the southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.


A more activity weather pattern will setup during the middle of the week into next week. An upper level trough will slide south across the west coast today and Monday then kick east on Tuesday
pushing into the Plains by Wednesday. This will push the ridge off to the east and allow the front to sag to the southeast into the area Tuesday night into Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as the better upper level support will remain west and north of the area with the upper level trough path. With the timing expected to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and that instability will be on the weak side should help to limit the overall severe risk Wednesday.

An upper level low will move onto the west coast early this week and dig to the southeast into the Middle of the week. Medium range models then differ on how the the upper levels behaves regarding track and timing to the east after it digs into the southeastern U.S. Therefore, there remains uncertainty on the exact details for the end of the week into next week. What is known is that the low will be to the west and will be able to pull better gulf moisture north ahead of it helping to increase instability across the area. As the low moves to the east, showers and storms will develop and we could see a couple rounds depending on the exact track of the system. There could be the potential for severe weather but when and where we be dependent on the track/timing of the the system and also a flooding risk given the very wet spring so far but there is a lot of uncertainty with when and where. We will likely need to wait for the low to make it on to the west coast and be sampled by the upper air network to get a better handle on the exact track and timing.

Highs around 80 will occur Wednesday and Thursday, then slightly cooler conditions will build over the region as highs in the 70s are expected Friday into the weekend.


A rather wet start to the weekend.


Clouds to beging this day and sun to end it. Look for improving conditions. Some chances for showers and some scattered storms are expected, but we are not looking at high impact weather during this period.


 Looks quiet/dry with surface high pressure moving into MO.

Friday, May 12, 2017

Hail strikes again!

Forsyth MO - Normally, hail falling from the skies is a pretty rare event. Part of the reason is the conditions required to it to form. (Hail forms when thunderstorm updrafts are strong enough to carry water droplets well above the freezing level. This freezing process forms a hailstone, which can grow as additional water freezes onto it. Eventually, the hailstone becomes too heavy for the updrafts to support it and it falls to the ground.) The other reason is that when it does fall, it tends to fall in rather narrow strips and only for short periods of time. It's not unusual for a person in a car to be in dry conditions one minute, a driving rain with hail the next and then back out of the whole deal a few minutes later. Lastly, hail in southwest Missouri is much more likely early into the spring season when enough cold air can be scrounged up!

So, it was amazing to me to see similar hail events, one on March 9 and the other May 11 happened so darn close together. The picture at right was a hailstone that greeted me at my front door. And yes, it was made in the good ol US of A!

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Taney county work week #2!

A slight upper level ridge will be over the southern U.S. And Lower Mississippi River Valley Region to start off this week. Southwesterly winds will be a little breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be joined by warmer temperatures with most locations getting up into the lower 80s both Monday and Tuesday. We might even see a few middle 80's.


A moist and unstable air mass is in place across the area and this will aid in the development of additional showers and storms through Tonight. While the main synoptic front is located across Northern Missouri west into Northern Kansas, an effective front/trough is located further south from Central Missouri back into West Central Oklahoma. Impulses riding up from the south have contributed to pockets of storm development, most remaining just to our north and west thus far. Will be watching the evolution of storms across Southern and Central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening as they approach the area ahead of a lead impulse over the Red River Valley. The atmosphere is ripe for organized storms with 1500j/kg of ML cape along with 40-50kts of effective bulk shear. If storms can get organized then large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Locations along and north of Interstate 44 are most favored for this activity.

Most model guidance thus far has struggled with the evolution of showers and storms and thus caution must be used with them. There is a signal that the heavier axis of showers and storms may be pushed further south into our area tonight vs locations to our north given a strong low level jet developing and interacting with this trough/effective boundary. While uncertainty in this scenario is high, it would have implications on our qpf amounts overnight and this will need to be monitored. A severe threat will exist for most of the night as the environment will not change much. Shear profiles will actually become more favorable for storms heading into the overnight hours.

There will likely be ongoing showers and storms Thursday morning across the area and this will be key as to what it does with the true synoptic front. Models have the front along the Interstate 44 corridor Thursday afternoon. Forecast soundings off the GFS reveal a class splitting super cell profile with large hail being the most prominent threat. Mid level lapse rates will be steep and CAPE will be plentiful especially in the hail growth zone. Thinking that robust thunderstorm development is possible along the front in the afternoon with hail to the size of golf balls possible. There is a conditional threat for a tornado if storms can ride the front and increase effective helicities. This will be evaluated more closer to tomorrow. A Slight risk for severe storms is across most of the area for Thursday with locations along and south of Interstate 44 most likely to be affected.


Slightly cooler weather returns for the end of the week.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Taney County Work week 1!


A big improvement in weather conditions will be had Monday as the upper low lifts off to the northeast. The dry weather will persist into Tuesday, but the dry spell will not last long.

Rain and scattered storms should be ongoing once again through the day Wednesday and continue into early Thursday morning. Current expectations with this system will be for an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall. There is some indication that the frontal lift will act to enhance the QPF where CAPE is limited. This will allow for some embedded thunderstorms which may produce rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour at times.

Despite the expectation of more strati-form rainfall with this system, the antecedent saturated soil conditions, ongoing flooding and terrain effects across the Ozarks would bring the potential for flash flooding to occur. As a result a Flash Flood Watch will be issued for all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas from 06z Wednesday through 12z Thursday.

A cooler weather pattern will set up for late week as the region comes under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of the deepening upper level trough.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Bull Shoals to flood?

Forsyth Mo. - It's late April in 2017 and once again heavy rains were threatening to inundate two local parks; Shadow Rock and River Run!

After getting doused with over three inches of rainfall recently, there is a strong likelihood that we will be positively drenched during the last weekend of the an otherwise nice spring month! The national Weather Service is predicting as much as eight inches over a broad area of the southwest Missouri watershed and that typically spells trouble for some people who live near the Tri-Lakes water way.

If Bull Shoals lake gets much over 675 feet MSL, both River Run and nearby Shadow Rock Parks will likely close up for the balance of the summer and even possibly for the entire summer season. Should that happen, a number of things will be negatively impacted including; local convenience stores, area campers, planned outdoor park events and revenue for the City of Forsyth!

As of April the 27th, the lake level at Bull Shoals was at 664.36 feet. If the rains come as predicted, that level would surely grow and both reservoirs (Beaver and Table Rock) are at full capacity. That combined with saturated soils would mean that most any water that fell would be dumped downstream where it would back up at the Arkansas border where the Bull Shoals dam is located.

Should we all start building Arks?

Taney County MO. - After a recent spate of heavy rainfall that dropped three and three quarters of rain or more over our area, the National Weather Service is calling for yet another round starting on Friday, April 28! Should this occur in the manner shown in the above graphic, it would definitely impact the upper reservoirs of the chain of three large lakes that form Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals. (The short strip of water known as Taneycomo which connects both Table Rock and Bull Shoals could also be severely impacted if rainfalls meet or exceed the forecast amounts).

As of April the 27th, Beaver Lake that form the headwaters of the chain, was already at 1,125.98 feet which was above the full pool level of 1,121.0 feet! Note that the graphic shows a chance for rain potential to be over 10 inches. That much water falling on an already water soaked watershed would be immediately dumped into the lake with little in the way of absorption. This extra water would then be released at the dam into Table Rock lake which would also be 'under the gun' so to speak. Without going into too much detail, that's one heck of a lot of water that will be headed somewhere in a hurry! Remembering that while the system can easily handle such a load, the real problems would arise out of just how fast the whole system is impacted. Too much rain all at once would simply overload the whole smear...

Having stated all that, remember that what is forecast to happen and what actually happens can be worlds apart. Also, please note that this post constitutes the musing of an old fart with no formal training in the weather what so ever.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Taney County Work week four!

The start of the work week will feature dry conditions and a warming trend. Highs by Tuesday should warm back into the upper 70's.


Models then bring a storm system out into the central U.S. From Tuesday night into Wednesday. A fair amount of spread remains regarding the eventual track of the surface low associated with this system. Some models track it along the Missouri/Arkansas border while others have it moving east across central Missouri.

It does look like an elevated mixed layer (EML) will advect over the region ahead of this system with Gulf of Mexico moisture returning northward into the region. This should lead to moderate amounts of instability (especially over southern Missouri) as the system arrives Tuesday night. Deep layer shear will also be supportive of organized convection.

One of the bigger questions to answer is whether or not convection can fire along or ahead of an incoming cold front given that a decent capping inversion will be in place. It is quite possible that thunderstorms may be slightly post-frontal. Regardless, CAPE/shear profiles alone are supportive of at least a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

This system looks as if it will be fairly progressive moving through. However, a widespread one to two inch rainfall is quite possible across the region. With streams and rivers already high, this may lead to some hydro concerns.


We may then see another day or two of quiet weather behind the midweek system before active weather returns by next weekend. Global models continue to indicate a large scale setup that would favor more heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe storms. Details regarding these potential hazards will become clearer throughout the upcoming week.


Confidence in a flooding event has therefore become high enough to post a Flash Flood Watch (will be out by 4 AM) for all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme Southeastern Kansas from Friday night through Sunday. Widespread storm total amounts are still expected to be in the 3-6" range, but with a caveat. With convective elements in play for the duration of the event, locally higher amounts are quite likely (in the 8" plus range). It is still a bit early to nail down where the heaviest rain will fall.

Not to be outdone, the potential for severe storms will also be present with this setup starting as early as Friday night. South of that strengthening front, moderate amounts of instability will be present with sufficient deep layer shear for strong to severe storms. If supercells can develop, large hail to the size of golf balls would be possible. The tornado threat will have to be monitored as super cell motions would tend to parallel the front. Even north of the front, elevated hailers will be possible.

The key to the severe potential Friday night will be where that front sets up. The NAM has it draped across south-central Missouri with the ECMWF a bit farther north. In contrast, the GFS keeps it just south of the Arkansas border. We are leaning towards that front at least making it as far north as southern Missouri. The severe threat would then continue into Saturday, especially along and south of where that front sets up.

The main upper level support for this system will then pull through the region from Sunday into Sunday night. The main shower/thunderstorm threat should begin to diminish later in the day on Sunday, however some light wrap-around precipitation will remain possible into Sunday night or even Monday.

Sunday, April 16, 2017

Easter Sunday brings much needed rainfall!

Forsyth MO. - I arose early (for me) on an Easter Sunday in 2017 to see that the skies had darkened with the local radar showing a real good chance for significant rainfall. Much of southwest Missouri, where I call home has been in a mini drought for over a year and any rainfall would be much appreciated!

Halfway through the month of April and my rain gauge showed just .39 of an inch total! [See for more stats!] That sort of trend had been playing out for all of 2016 and seemed to be continuing. This is the peak start of the growing season and what with the problems of too much rainfall in southern California, vegetable prices had risen sharply. We really needed a good growing season here in the Midwest to help offset the losses out west!

After an initial quick third of an inch, a rain shield progressed through the area bringing the total to half an inch by mid morning! And there was more good news as the NWS was projecting unsettled weather to continue through the following weekend!

By 11:30 AM CST - the rain was pretty much done. I recorded .55 of an inch and even that, when added to the graph at right, show us with a way to go to catch up to an estimated 7 inch yearly deficit!

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Taney County work week three in April!


Yawn! One would think we would have seen a bit more in the rain gauge by this point! A drier and more stable air mass will spread into the region by Monday, suppressing most of the thunderstorm activity into Arkansas. Highs on Monday will warm into the low to mid 70s. Double yawn...


Wednesday is expected to be warmer than normal, but otherwise quiet. Look for temps in the mid 80's! Yes, and it will be OK to wash those oh so dirty cars!


The main concern for this Thursday and Friday will heavy rain/flood potential late Thu night-Fri-Sat. Some severe storm potential is there depending on how/where a west-east frontal boundary sets up
Thu-Fri. Swell....

The front will continue to move south through the area Thursday with continued chances for showers/thunderstorms area wide at one time or another. Daytime heating will help boost cape/instability during the day Thursday with lots of shear energy present in spots. Shear that would be sufficient for organized storms. A veered surface wind will limit storm potential to hail/winds. Depending on which guidance you choose the timing for stronger storms in our area might be noon(ish) to mid afternoon before the front pushes south and east of the cwfa. The SPC marginal risk covers the area well.


There is good agreement on general large scale/synoptic scale features during this time. The front will stall south of the area over OK/AR Thu night as a shortwave/upper level jet digs southeast through the southern Rockies. A slow moving upper level closed low develops near the CO/KS/OK Panhandle region by midday Fri with multiple lead impulses ahead of the main low. Increasingly more numerous and heavier showers will begin to develop late Thu night and continue Fri as waves of showers move through with the small scale upper level disturbances. Periods of heavy showers will continue Fri-Fri night-early Sat until the upper low moves overhead on Sat. Blended guidance utilized by our forecast database shows a solid 2-4 inch storm total rainfall across the area with highest amounts over southeast KS and the southwest corner of MO. The bottom line is that this type of rainfall over a large area will produce widespread flooding as early as late Thu night, but certainly Fri and through the weekend. Creeks, rivers, low water crossings, poor drainage and urban areas will all be vulnerable to flooding.

On paper, the severe storm risk looks minimal day 3/Fri, but will have to watch where the surface front to our south sets up.

On into Saturday, a closed off low develops and impacts the region with widespread rainfall. This system will also bring much cooler temperatures to the area with lows in the 40's and 50's over
the upcoming weekend.

Monday, April 10, 2017

Climate for April thru June!

Taney County MO. - According to the NOAA Climate prediction center, temperatures for our neck of the woods will be warmer than normal with less than normal rainfall April through the month of June. And while the predictions for the Summer period July through September are not yet out, I'd say it was a safe bet to call for more of the same!

April work week two in Taney County!


A front will slowly track east and will start to spread east of Highway 65 by Monday afternoon. With the heating of the day instability will increase. The cap will hold into early this afternoon, but should start to weaken later this afternoon into early this evening across the eastern Ozarks. As this occurs expected showers and storms to develop generally along and east of a Branson to Rolla MO line with the best potential/coverage of showers and storms to occur across south central MO on to the south and east.

There may be enough instability for a few strong to marginally severe storms later in the afternoon hours with hail to the size of quarters being the main risk. There could also be some isolated damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. The storms will push south and east of the area by late this evening.

The cold front will switch winds to the northwest behind the front, but the colder air associated with this system will lag behind closer to the upper level low. As a result temperatures in the middle to upper 70's should occur this afternoon. A drier air mass will spread into the area behind the front and will lead to an elevated fire risk across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri where the dry air will spread in the first.


Surface high pressure and a slightly cooler air mass will spread over the region Tuesday. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the middle to upper 60's. The area of high pressure will spread east on
Wednesday allowing highs in the 70's to occur each afternoon through the rest of the week and weekend. [I can live with that]!


An upper level disturbance will track through the region Wednesday night into Thursday bringing shower and storm chances to the area. Another disturbance will then track into the area Friday into the start of the weekend bringing additional showers and storm chances to the area. Showers and storms will then be possible again late this weekend into the start of next week as a more active weather pattern will be in place across the area.


Saturday will be very warm and breezy with highs in the low 80's possible in some locations. A cold front will drop south into the area late Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms. While an isolated strong to severe storm will be possible across SE Kansas and Western Missouri, the main hazards will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

The front looks to linger across southern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Sufficient instability and wind shear will exist creating a isolated severe storm threat. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. An increasing low level jet impeding on this front Sunday night may contribute to an additional round of showers and storms lasting into Monday.

Models insist that our area will remain in a west to southwest mid level flow next week however they do diverge with the placement of a system coming out of the Rockies beginning Tuesday. GFS is much further south than the ECMWF with the Canadian being the middle of the road. This will be a potent little system to watch as the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open. Additional chances of precip are possible next week given this active pattern. Temps will also remain mild.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Taney County work week 1 for April!

Remember those rainy and icky days when you were a kid, sitting bored to death in class and looking out the rain streaked classroom windows? Well, Monday will not be a lot like that. Just cloudy and sort of icky! So, buck up buttercups! Look for high temps in the 60's.

NWS: A steady drizzle in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High 62F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch. Swell...

The next storm system to affect the area begins to develop across the central and southern Plains region on Tuesday. A very vigorous and dynamic upper level wave will move out of the Southern Rockies. Significant surface cyclogenesis (nastiness) will develop across the Texas Panhandle region through the south central Plains on Tuesday. A deepening surface low will move northeastward towards the Missouri Ozarks by Tuesday night.

Steep lapse rates, very strong wind shear, and strong mid and upper level forcing will contribute to storm development Tuesday night into early on Wednesday for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The quality of low level moisture will be limited, but a few strong to severe storms appear to be possible with large hail the main threat. Will need to monitor future computer model guidance and trends during this time frame. It will also be very windy with this system Tuesday night through Wednesday. Wind gusts could approach 40 mph.

A large upper level trough digs and develops across the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday with us in northern flow. It will be chilly with highs in the 50's and overnight lows in the middle and upper 30's possibly.

A warming trend will begin Friday and continue into this weekend as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and surface high pressure moves off to the east. Southerly wind and sunshine will push temps back to pleasant spring time levels. Highs by Saturday will be back in the 70s. [Finally]

Meanwhile an upper level trough will make its way across the west and bring a front into the Plains on Sunday. Moisture levels will be on the increase Sunday ahead of this system and isolated to scattered convection could develop as early as Sunday afternoon. However a better chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday night and Monday as the system moves east.

The front will push to the east by Tuesday leaving behind dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle of next week. 

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Dicy weather could be in store for Taney County!

Well, we are in the spring time and Mother Nature does like to shake things up a bit!

This from the NWS: A strong closed low will move across the Red River Valley and slowly lift northeast into southwestern Missouri and Southeastern Kansas through today and into tonight. As the low makes its way across Oklahoma a warm front will lift north across the region placing the Ozarks in the warm sector by late this afternoon into tonight. A rather strong low level jet on the order of 50 knots per hour will be in place. This will enhance the shear profile over the Ozarks region on the order of 60-75kts of shear. Cape values this evening will be on the order of 1500 to 1800 J/kg with low level Cape values in the lowest 1 to 3 Km from 90 to 120 J/kg.

My personal take on that forecast – 'The atmosphere will be charged up – like a vehicle's engine cylinders that are full of a gas and air mix, just waiting for a spark to set things in motion!' Also, please note that the definition of 'CAPE' is 'Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severe weather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1000 joules per kilogram (J/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5000 J/kg.'

Update: This from the NWS - 1:20 PM: 'No major changes to the overall forecast message this afternoon and tonight, with strong/severe thunderstorms still expected to affect a large portion of the area. Large hail, straight line winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.'

Me: To my uneducated mind, I'm starting to see a fizzle here... I'm thinking the action was moving more north.. At the 6PM hour winds were calm..

7:00 PM - So, sometimes the weather service fucks up! They be human and all...  I'll call this a dry slot. And, like a man who takes a penis stimulus to no good effect, this day was rather limp... remembering that this source is very much an idjit! Picture at 8PM looking west!

Summery: To use an earlier analogy - while all the players were present in that engine cylinder, no 'spark' was ever delivered and so the 'party' was a dud! Well, we could have used the rain...

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Taney County work week #4!


Computer model output has been consistent with more storm system movements across the region during the upcoming work week, so will keep precipitation chances going pretty much as they have been for the past few days. Late Sunday into Monday, on open upper wave and surface trough will move across the region. Dynamics and instability look pretty meager so don't think we'll see much in the way of severe storms.


Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop or move into the area after 7PM and will be most likely during the 11PM to 6AM period. Agree with the SPC assessment of a marginal risk of severe storms
with wind and hail being the primary threat.

Highs will range from around 60 in the Lake of the Ozarks region to near 70 in extreme southwest Missouri closer to the warm front.


Rain should begin to taper off during the day on Monday with the system exiting the area Monday evening. The area remains in a progressive pattern with systems coming through every 2-3 days through the remainder of the period.

The upper low and surface low will move slowly to the east through the day Wednesday and through Thursday. The dynamics of this system will bring the potential for strong to severe storms through the day Wednesday. The combination of ample moisture, a rather strong low level jet and upper level jet support will make all modes of severe weather possible. The storm prediction center has already placed the Ozarks under a slight risk, though if the models continue the trends of the past few runs, we may see an upgrade. Will keep an eye on the latest trends.


For severe weather potential, please click here.

Models also bring a good amount of precipitation to the region with the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall area wide through the day Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. This, on top of the rain over the past few days, may produce some flooding concerns.

Ridging will be ongoing Friday morning through Saturday allowing the region so see a return of sunshine and temperatures climbing through the 50's and 60's on Friday and into the 70's on Saturday.
This will occur as winds shift out of the south.


Another system is then anticipated to begin to impact the region Saturday night and through Sunday with more rain and temperatures in the 60s during the day as we head into the start of next week.