New Year's weather forecast for Taney County!

A tricky forecast for Friday and Friday night with a sneaky drizzle event possible before the arctic front comes through late in the night or early morning Saturday.

Friday, December 29

Southerly winds were keeping temps in the teens and low 20's for the most part across the area this morning. While some low clouds were exiting east, other mid to high clouds were moving in. Do think that clouds will move back in for most of today. Another contrast in temps from north to south will occur today as thickness values increase across southern Missouri. A little hesitant to go as warm as guidance, even with southerly winds. Locations along and south of Interstate 44 will approach 40 with locations across Central Missouri only making it into the low 30's. Feel free to get out there and enjoy the warmth!

Forecast soundings for this afternoon for Central Missouri (Warsaw over to Vichy), shows a general lack of cloud ice with relative humidity readings of around 40-50% along with a moist layer below 850mb along with some lift in that layer. With temps around freezing, we do think that some freezing drizzle may be possible with better chances just northeast of the area toward Jeff City. 00Z/06Z NAM, along with latest hi res models do show this signal. Not confident enough yet to issue a advisory for this area however model trends along with surface temps/high's will need to be monitored today. With a cold ground, even just a little freezing drizzle can cause some impacts.

Hi resolution computer models and the NAM then show an area of drizzle potential across the rest of the Missouri Ozarks after midnight tonight, just ahead of the Arctic front. Model soundings vary a little on how much cloud ice is present, however a warm layer exists around 850mb with lift in that layer. Again, surface temps will be critical in determining the impact here, especially with southerly winds. Definitely need to monitor the drizzle potential tonight as ground temps are cold. The Arctic front looks to arrive across our far NW counties by 12 midnight and then clear through the area by 6AM. This event then begins a period of much colder temps.

SATURDAY – December 30

Cold air advection will be in earnest Saturday and Sunday as a 1050mb+ surface high sends some very cold air south into the area. Temps will likely fall all day Saturday with temps in the teens and single digits by evening. We can't rule out some flurries across far southwest Missouri Sat night, but most will likely stay just south of the Taney County area.

The 850mb (5000 feet up) temps drop close to -18C (-.4ºF) during the late Saturday through and Monday time frame. This looks to be a very cold stretch with highs in the teens and lows in the -5 to 5F range. Gusty north winds will continue as the pressure gradient doesn't really let up until closer to Tuesday. Winds look to remain near 10-15mph during the weekend. Therefore wind chill values Saturday night into Sunday morning will drop to -10F.

SUNDAY - MONDAY

Sunday night into Monday appears to be the most dangerous as wind chill values drop to as low as -25ºF. Wind Chill Advisory criteria is -10ºF and Wind Chill Warning criteria is -25ºF. Confidence is high that Advisory criteria will be reached and look for those to be posted possibly later today. With New Years Eve being Sunday, there will be additional impacts as more people may be out and about and/or traveling.



TUESDAY - We get hit again!

The center of the high moves over the area Tuesday however another shot of cold air moves down Wednesday and lasts through Thursday. Ain't we the lucky ones!