Wednesday, October 23, 2013

November's coming! Surely my favorite month! Not!

I've always touted the month of November as a transitional month as it generally starts out pretty nice, but then it starts to develop an attitude towards the end. The month itself is 30 days long and during that period of time, the mean or average temperature goes down ten whole degrees from 57°F to 47°F., and I can tell you from experience, that represents a big change in terms of a person's overall comfort.

Most of my 'personal discomfort' comes from the overnight lows and not so much from the daytime highs. In 2012, the average daytime high was 58°F ,which wasn't all that bad! The lows, however, tended to hover around the freezing mark which was definitely a bummer. The sun goes down and wham-bam, thank-you-ma'am, it's friggin freezing! Ah yes, and speaking of those sunsets – they come too darn quickly for my taste. After the time change on November 3rd, (you know, that's when we all fall back), darkness comes much earlier. By mid-month, you might well be at work when it's already getting dark out there! Adding insult to injury, it may also be pitch black when you get up! (They call this 'daylight savings time', but seriously, who's really getting those savings)?

Anyway, as I alluded to, the month is a definite transition for many. When the sun's not in your eyes (because it's so low in the sky), you're being rained on, and it's often a cold rain at that. We average about four inches down here in southwest Missouri and on some of those special days you can start you day by dressing in the dark, going out into near freezing weather and driving to work with a pelting rain that threatens to turn to ice at any moment. Yes, my friends welcome to the month of November....

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Get out! It's Fall already?

For those who watch the weather as closely as I do (it's a sickness), you would have taken notice of the subtle change in the weather patterns over the past week or so. The most obvious of these would be the fact that the nighttime temperatures, which had been running a number of degrees warmer than normal, are now beginning to come more in line with seasonal averages. This 'chilling' effect was also reinforced by a corresponding dip in the highs that have caused the average trend line (see graphic above) to dip even lower that what we experienced at this time last year. And, this trend of Mother Nature getting her winter garb on also looks to be de rigueur for the immediate future as a series of cold waves from Canada look to be set to invade the Heartland of our country. (Here's a bit of advice, anyone with stuff left to harvest from their gardens may want to get right to it)!

Look for an early frost well before Halloween and maybe, if we're lucky, a nice autumn display of leaves as they change into glorious color before falling.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Mid October 2013 weather report!

Click on graphic to enlarge
It's mid October down here in southwest Missouri and while some leaves are now falling, most of the area is still bathed in a green glow. I'll try and enjoy it while it lasts!

The first half of October was very pleasant with the average high temperatures at 74°F which was some 3 degrees above where they have been historically. The lows were averaging 53°F were 9 degrees above the normal! Wow! This made for some really spectacular days that afforded many residents the opportunity to get in some RR outdoors before things get a little bit more nasty later in the season.

The rainfall, so far has been lagging just a bit behind the thirty year average. I've measured a total of 1.44” on my weather web page which just a bit behind the average for the month. I confident we'll make that difference up by the end of the month.

Look for the second half of the month to be colder than normal with increased chances for rainfall interspersed between numerous cold fronts.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

October's temperatures seem to be going downhill!

While I was going through some data I wanted to use in a future article, I came across some rather interesting information. It seems that, at least as far as the mean monthly temperatures go, the last three Octobers have gotten progressively colder! Now, of course, three years does not make a trend by any stretch! But, it is a little odd considering all the hype concerning Global Warming that the media seems to love so much.

Now as you may or not may know, the truest indication of a warming or cooling trend can be seen in each evenings lows. That's because Global Warming, per sae, works during the nighttime hours and not the day. This quote was taken from 'The Sun's Heartbeat: And OtherStories' by Bob Berman. “Unlike the other climate influences, greenhouse gases overwhelmingly act on the colder half of our planet, and the effects manifest as a rise in a region's minimum temperatures. Carbon sneaks in and does its work at night.” So, here is a graph of the mean low temperatures for the past three Octobers. So, is it getting COLDER at night? Interesting!

I'm looking forward to seeing what transpires in this still young month of October 2013!

Saturday, October 5, 2013

And so fall begins!

[Forsyth MO] – At 6:50 AM the first splattering of rain fell outside my window. The temperature was a comfortable 68°F. The overcast sky was heavy laden with moisture, a fact that presented itself in the form of copious rain that fell throughout the morning hours. By 9: 00 AM, .6 inches of rain had fallen from a vigorous frontal system that was training over the are. Occasionally, deep-throated thunder sounded off in the distance. Meanwhile, up north of my position, heavy snow had fallen in
Boulder Canyon, ND
numerous states. As much as two feet or more in places like Boulder Canyon, North Dakota. Down to the south in the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical storm name Karen churned towards the coast spewing out copious amounts of rain on its shear-torn leeward side. Yes, fall is a time where you can witness all sorts of wild weather as cold Canadian air tries to mix it up with warm and moisture laden air from the Gulf.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Truly amazing times!

'Blizzards to the north of me
Storms to the south!
And with all that chaos in Washington
Think I'll just hide out!'

Those are my sentiments as the first weekend of October is just a day away! Mother Nature is sure making a statement with the first winter storm of the season called Atlas as she deals out heavy snow in many of our northern tier of states. Off the the south, in the gulf of Mexico, tropical storm Karen is churning away and looks to be making landfall at some point on Saturday. Thankfully, it appears as if shear forces are going to significantly downgrade the amount of mischief she can do.

Here ins southwest Missouri, all is quiet as we all await the arrival of the first real cold wave that is currently draped from New Mexico all the wave over to Michigan. Behind the front is some decently cold air that is forecast to sag it way on into the Taney County area of Missouri sometime during the early hours of Saturday – I can hardly wait.

Washington D.C. will also be entering its fifth day of being shut down (courtesy of President Obama and his stooge Harry Reid). I'm told by some in the media that its likely that the shutdown will continue well into the month and will likely become rolled into the budget ceiling debate starting on about the 15th. Just like a powerful storm, this debate may cause our nation great amounts of destruction, so be sure to have you larder full of food, just in case....

Thursday, October 3, 2013

First cold jolt of the autumn season 2013-14!

Click on to enlarge!

I will be watching with some interest as the first cold wave of the early autumn season impacts the Midwest on the first weekend of the month of October 2013. Temperatures may struggle to reach the low 60's lows during the daytime on Saturday, Oct 5 with temps only in the high 30's come Monday morning, October 7!

As you can see in the chart above, we were considerably higher than the average temperatures of the last year. This trend should hold through Friday, at which point a cold front will move on through the area and will cool things down. What is not clear, at this juncture, is the possible effect of the yet to be named tropical storm that will be called Karen if her winds increase a bit more than the 60+ knots they are now. As of this post (Oct 3), she is churning her way up toward
Snow, severe weather and a tropical storm all on 1 map!
the Gulf of Mexico where it is thought that she may well strengthen into a full fledged hurricane. And, while most computer models have 'Karen' veering off towards Florida and the east coast, there is still the possibility that she will maintain a more northerly course and thus could impact the weather over Missouri. (Right now, that's just conjecture on my part).

In any case, look for a wild ride this fall and winter as Mother Nature may throw a tantrum or two, just to keep things interesting!