Saturday, December 31, 2016

Taney County first work week of a New Year!


A cold front will finally shift through southern Missouri on Tuesday, providing a sharp temperature gradient from northwest to southeast. The eastern Ozarks could reach the 50's on Tuesday, while west central Missouri may be capped off in the 30's. Hey! It is winter you know!

There is also a signal for some drizzle or maybe some light rain that occurs with this frontal passage. Any precipitation that falls will remain very light.

Wednesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold as a Canadian air mass continues to deepen across the Ozarks. Wednesday's high temperatures will only warm into the 20s and lower 30s. Wednesday will be dry, however, late Wednesday night into Thursday, some light snow is not out of the question.

The models have been struggling to adopt a solution for Thursday's snow chances. The ECMWF has been the most stable solution, and suggests that some light snow will spread across the region, and taper off by Thursday night. We won't discuss what the GFS is showing since it's been extremely erratic with it's solutions for Thursday. With the inconsistency in solutions, we have maintained a slight chance for snow accumulations. Confidence in snow accumulations remains very low at this time.


An upper level shortwave will track southeast and into the central and southern Plains late Thursday with snow spreading across Oklahoma and Arkansas. We are expecting most of this activity to remain south of Missouri tonight and no additional snow accumulations are forecast for our area. The main weather story for our area will be the cold temperatures and wind chills. High pressure will continue to build into the area at the surface and with the snow pack in place, we are expecting temperatures to dip into the single digits to around 12 degrees across far southern Missouri. Wind chills will dip into the single digits below zero for a good portion of the area. High temperatures on Friday will only warm into the teens to low 20s once again.

Friday, December 23, 2016

Taney Cty work week 4!

As Monday Approaches: An upper level low will move across the Plains into Minnesota Sunday into Sunday night and send a cold front east across the area. Breezy and gusty southerly winds will occur Sunday ahead of the storm system and front.

Low level moisture will increase across the region with the aid of the strong low level winds. However, instability will remain weak as the better upper level support and height falls remain north of the area. As a result, we do not expect much in the way of any convection ahead of the front. As the front moves into the area from west to east late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night a line of convection, likely fairly narrow in nature, is expected to develop along the front and track east across the area. With the weak instability may not see a lot of lightning, but there may be enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder. Given the strong low level wind fields some stronger wind gusts mixing down to the surface in the line of convection will be possible mainly west of Highway 65 where the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Severe Risk in place for Sunday late afternoon/evening. Localized damaging wind risk will be the main risk with this activity.

Monday: Behind this system a more zonal upper air pattern will occur early next week as highs in the 40's to near 50 to occur Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday: An upper level trough will then track east across the Plains during the middle of next week bringing additional rain chances to the region Tuesday night into Thursday. Warmer air will be advecting north into the area so mainly rain will occur Tuesday night and Wednesday with possibly some light snow occurring on the back side of the system Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time no accumulations are expected.

Thursday onward: Other than the aforementioned low end rain chances, a frontal passage Wednesday night should be dry. Cooler and considerably drier air will build into the area on Thursday along with gusty northwest winds. This will yield of the first day of elevated fire weather conditions, as humidity drops to between 30 and 35 percent during the afternoon hours.

An upper level shortwave trough will spread across the southern Plains into the region bringing rain chances to the area, with the better chances across the eastern Ozarks. Highs will warm into the 50s this afternoon then into the 60's on Monday.

An upper level trough will then spread across the northern Plains by the middle of next week bringing much colder conditions to the region.

A couple of weak shortwaves will approach the area over the weekend, resulting in occasional shower chances Saturday and Sunday. The best chances look to be over far south central MO Saturday night into Sunday, though guidance has been pushing precipitation further and further southeast with time, so even this may be in question.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Friday, December 23 weather hazards!

Taney County MO. Normally I leave the guess work as to the weather forecast for the professionals. However, the setup for Friday, December the 23rd has gotten my interest.

The setup for problems will begin on Friday, in the predawn hours, as what is known as isentropic upglide develops due to a warm front moving towards us. For those who are not familiar with the term, it refers to the fact that warm air resists undercutting the cold air that will be in place. The warm, less dense air rises gradually in vertically as it overrides the sloping cold dense air (less potential temperature air). It must do this to stay at the same potential temperature (same relative density). This is why warm fronts tend to bring widespread light to moderate precipitation. Please see the diagram below:

So, warm and moist air aloft with colder air at around 30 degree near the surface. Any moisture that falls through such a zone will sometimes turn into snow, sleet or freezing rain depending on just how deep the cold layer is at any given location. Note that this will be more of a probability in higher locations and areas to the east of Hwy 65! Whatever happens, this should be a rather short-lived deal as it should warm up above freezing shortly after sunrise. What area motorists will want to track, however, is the possibility of a few sloping roads and some bridges getting a thin glaze of ice – possibly just enough to pose a hazard to a few early commuters!

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Taney County weather for work week #3 in December!

Monday, Dec 19: - After enduring the deep freeze of the previous weekend, southerly winds and the back side of high pressure will start the slow moderation of temperatures on Monday. Highs will try to reach the freezing mark. More seasonable temperatures return by the middle of the week. The weather pattern will be mostly zonal this week and quiet and dry weather. A weak front may try to move across the area Wednesday night into early Thursday but not much associated with it.

Friday, Dec 23rd: A more complex and unsettled weather pattern will evolve later Friday into the Christmas Holiday weekend. Watch out on Friday morning as there could be some freezing rain in the morning hours, before it changes over to all rain later on! A lead minor shortwave trough will eject northeastward toward the Ozarks Friday night and Saturday. A warm air/moisture advection pattern will setup resulting in the development of light precipitation Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation could be a light wintry mix Friday night and early Saturday especially across the eastern Ozarks. However little if any accumulation or impact is expected at this time given that temperatures may only touch the freezing mark. However something to monitor considering we are heading into the Holiday weekend.

Dec 24 & 25: Well, it's officially winter now, and while a snowstorm is now predicted for the northern tier of states, it's likely to be a warm and toasty 60 plus degrees down here in Taney County MO. Scattered showers will likely develop Saturday night into Sunday. The coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase from the west during the afternoon and evening on Christmas Day as a strong surface low pressure system tracks into the northern Plains and an attendant cold front swings into the Ozarks. The greatest chance for thunderstorms looks to be Sunday night. Merry Christmas all! And, don't forget yer rubbers! Gee! Now I'm wondering if Obama was right about that Global warming stuff! I understand he will be leaving office and then heading for Russia to help Putin with his economy... good luck with that!

Merry Christmas all!

Friday, December 9, 2016

Taney County Mo work week #2!

As we all bid a fond farewell in the rear view mirror to the deep freeze that came to pay a visit us in the first week of December... also, please note that all information presented here is excerpted from news releases from the Springfield office of the National Weather Service.

Weekend- Dec 10 and 11
A general warming trend is expected this weekend as highs warm back into the 40's and even low 50's by Sunday as southerly warm air advection kicks in. Some light precipitation/drizzle is possible early in the day on Sunday, and we all could normally use that. But, watch out! A very brief period of freezing drizzle or a wintry mix is possible as morning lows will be down in the 30s, although the overall potential appears low at this time. How's that for waffling folks?

Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon, before ending Sunday night as a front swings through the area. Rainfall amounts will be light--generally a tenth of an inch or less.

Monday thru Wednesday - Dec 14...

Things then look quiet until mid to late in the week, when guidance brings another front through the area. It's still way too murky to see clearly what exactly will happen at that point, however. Significant run to run and model to model differences persist with this system, so confidence is quite low with any details. There is a general consensus in another solid shot of cold air, although ensemble temperature solutions range anywhere from near zero to the upper 20's. (Damn those finicky super computers)! Precipitation potential is also all over the map, though it's worth mentioning that anything that DOES fall would likely be wintry in nature.

 Next weekend - Sat, Dec 17...
For the latest, as of late Friday evening, please jump over to

After a rather warm start on Saturday morning, the bottom then looks to fall out during the mid to late morning hours as a very strong cold front sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front (likely falling several degrees per hour) through the afternoon hours.

Most of the precipitation with the above mentioned frontal passage will be along and behind the front, making for a somewhat complicated forecast as very cold air rushes into the region behind the front. Right now, it looks like rain will give way to a very brief period of freezing rain and then sleet, as the post-frontal air mass deepens. Freezing rain/sleet accumulations should be little to none. A more organized band of snow is then expected to sweep south into the area, though it is expected to dissipate as it starts to reach the I-44 corridor. Snow totals are currently expected to be around an inch across the Highway 54 corridor, decreasing to around a half inch along I-44, including Joplin, Rolla, and the Springfield metro. South of US 60, only a dusting is expected. so, we look good to go!

Saturday, December 3, 2016

An arctic outbreak is on the way !

Taney County, MO. – The graphic of temperatures this year versus last is very telling if the forecast for frigid weather bears fruit long about Wednesday, Dec 7th ! Last year, in 2015, we all enjoyed tremendous and balmy weather for most of the month. Not so, for us in 2016! I'd advise everyone to make sure to perform a  winter checklist  on their dwelling to help insure a safe experience when it gets nasty outdoors. That sort of thinking also goes for anyone who has a long commute!

Latest feed from the Springfield weather service office: ' Temperatures will drop into the 20s Tuesday night with wind chills Wednesday morning in the teens. Models bring the arctic air mass into the region through the day Wednesday as moisture moves over the region. This will bring the potential for some light accumulation of snow for the Ozarks. The snow may mix with or change to all rain during the middle of the day before changing to all snow Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts from a few tenths up to 2 inches may occur before the system moves through the region. The best chance for accumulation will generally be along and north of I-44. Along with the snow will come temperatures falling into the teens, breezy winds and wind chills in low single digits to around zero degrees. In general, Thursday is looking to be a raw day.

Global computer runs are in agreement for a pretty cold series of days in the long range and even beyond. GFS has trended even colder and match the ECMWF pretty well at this point for late next week. ECMWF continues to funnel well below average temperatures into our region through next weekend. In fact, it shows many days of below freezing temperatures for our area. GFS isn't far off with the warmest temperatures being next Saturday, and those are only around 40 degrees at best. Regardless, confidence is there for a below average early to mid December.

 Looking down the road: Global models have then trended colder for next work week. This is especially true for the middle and later portions of the week as five wave charts indicate a deepening trough over eastern North America. If this pans out, another cold shot or two may be on the way.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Taney County weather for December work week #1!

Oh boy! A whole new month is here and it's one in which we will begin the start of winter on the 21st! Be still my heart! Note that the average high temp is 46ºF while the low is a cold 24ºF!

Taney County MO. - One thing, for sure, we are hurting in the rainfall department for the year as we are currently about 18 inches behind the average here in Taney County, Missouri. And, it's doubtful that this December (which sees about 3.7 inches on average) will make much of a dent in that. I'd also hazard a guess that any snow could be in short supply! Well, it's still the month of Christmas (you now as in giving), and I want you all to feel free to send me presents or cash or whatever!

Monday, December 5

The upper low is expected to finally move northeast from northern Mexico and TX through the lower MS Valley by late Mon-Mon night with another chance for a rain with highest chances (pops) over the eastern county warning forecast area.

Tuesday - Dec 6

On Tuesday lift will increase on Monday and Tuesday, bringing another round of widespread rainfall to southern Missouri. By late Tuesday this 2nd round of rain will exit to the east.

Wednesday - Dec 7

The coldest air mass of the season so far along with light precipitation will move into the Ozarks During the day Wednesday with the potential for some light snow fall during the and tapering off into Wednesday night. Temperatures will only reach the low to middle 30's for the highs on Wednesday with overnight temperatures into Thursday in the teens with a potential for some light snow accumulation on the ground for Thursday.

 Thursday thru Friday - Dec 8 to 9

Strong northwesterly flow aloft will allow for an arctic air mass to dive as far south as the Texas Gulf Coast and bring Cold temperatures to the region through the end of the work week. Highs on Thursday will likely not climb out of the 20's for most locations and only into the lower 30's on Friday.

The region will see a brief warm up for the weekend as winds turn out of the south again. This will allow temperature to climb into the lower 40s. A cold front then looks to move through the region to start the next work week. The overall pattern remains rather active this week and into next with storm systems moving across the region every 2 to 3 days.