Saturday, November 17, 2018

First half of Nov 2018 five degrees below normal!

Forsyth MO. - I watched with a little bit of concern, the manner in which the temperatures sort of fell off the cliff over the first fifteen days in November! After experiencing a few past years that saw very warm temps, as high as seven degrees ABOVE the normal average, I had concluded that the Global Warming bull shit might have something going for it. But, no! the mercury began the month in fine fashion and then dropped like a brick! (I even saw a few days that were more reminiscent of late December)!

That all said, we seemed to be heading back to near normal conditions for the second half of the month!



Monday, November 5, 2018

Average temperatures drop in first half of November 2018!

After experience a very typical October, here in southwest Missouri, the temperatures had taken a definite downwards curve in the first half of November 2018! www.taneyweather.com


Thursday, November 1, 2018

November 2018. Some initial thoughts!

After a pretty typical October month had come and gone, November entered in rainy and cold fashion with temps barely hitting the 50 degree mark for a high. Thus, as we enter into mid fall, I was left wondering how the coming winter (starting on Fri, Dec 21) was going to go...

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Mid October 2018 average temperature trend continues!

When it comes to the winter weather forecast for the 2018-2019 season, the NOAA has reported that there is a 70% chance that we will have an El NiƱo winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the United States. Well, that the official forecast at this point in time!

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Mid October averages to steer more towards normal!


Using nothing less than state of the art graphics, I put together a mid October sort of forecast for what I think will be the average temps across southwest Missouri. For this model, I colored in zones of hot, nice, cool, cold and frigid average temps. (I feel that the average temperature for any given day gives one the feel of that day). And, as can be seen, we are in for a more 'normal' weather period than what we experienced in 2017, at least for the mid portion of the month. As the the normal average works out to be 57 degrees (Hi 70 Lo 44), we will  likely be running just a bit below that figure, through about the 22nd of the month.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Why I'm all in for Global Warming!

Over the past many years, I've maintained a small weather reporting station (Davis Weather Monitor II), that despite its age, has been recording fairly accurately. Below, for instance, is a graph of the last five August's low temperature averages (note that 2015 was missing).


Many climatologists seem to agree that the best test of Global Warming would be to watch and see how well the atmosphere cools each day. Therefore, they watch the average lows to get a feel for what's going on over time. The graph above shows an average increase of 3 degrees for that '6' year span. A trend that I've seen played out again and again for every month and over many years.

So, does that indicate that things are getting warmer for Mother Earth? You betcha. As far as I'm concerned the results are in and we all will be seeing the effects of warming weather here where I live in southwest Missouri!

Here's the deal. Rather than worry about it, I actually am looking forward to a January where we will be able to have palm trees in my neighborhood! Yes, I like the increased heat! Now, does that make me some kind of nut? Perhaps, but as I have only a relatively short span of time left on earth - well that's all I really care about. You see, one second after I'm dead, I won't give a damn, will I? And anyway according to the article Sperm Zero, we're all going to be extinct by about 2046...

Friday, August 31, 2018

After a very hot summer 2018, what about the coming winter?

SW MO - The summer of 2018 was on the wane on the last day of August, and in true fashion, it was warm at 90 degrees! Thus, in only about twenty more days, we will all bid adieu to what was one of the hottest summers on record for the Midwest. Fall will arrive promptly on Saturday, September the 22nd and I'd like to think that many of us just might sigh with some relief! Hot and humid days spent indoors next to the AC will soon be replaced by much more livable, shorter and cooler days! A good time will be had by all! And, then, winter will inevitably arrive on the 21st of December.... Arrg!

So, what can we expect on the days following the shortest day of the year? Well, if you believe in the Farmer's Almanac, the signals were a bit mixed this time around. Here's a quote from Farmers' Almanac Editor and Philom Peter Geiger. "Contrary to some stories floating around on the internet, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing towards a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter.” He then went on to state, "We stand by our forecast and formula, which accurately predicted most of the winter storms last year as well as this summer's steamy, hot conditions." Hmmm.

But what about global warming and all that? That is a good question. However, whenever you have a planet with seven and a half billion souls, many of who live by burning wood and coal and when you have an extremely complex climate with melting poles adding tons of fresh water to salty oceans....

The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see what will be.....

Monday, July 9, 2018

Summer heat to really set in!


SW MO. – By mid week on July 11, the southwest Missouri area will be getting a good dose of summer time heat with highs working their way into the mid nineties and then hanging out there for a while. With heat advisories likely, the only hope for any relief will be popup styled storms that will likely be few and far between.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

On the early heat of the season for 2018!

Forsyth MO. - It was just half past 10AM on June 27, 2018 and already the outdoors temperature hung momentarily at 85 before going upwards! Adding insult to injury, the humidity was no slouch either, coming in at 62%! Area-wide, the National Weather Service had issued a heat advisory with planned readings in excess of 100 degrees by the following day. As a weather watcher of many years, I was growing a bit concerned.

My feelings were based partly on science and partly on intuition. June was coming in far above normal! (Highs were 5 degrees above normal and lows 8). When averaged, that was 6.5 degrees above the 30 year average... (And, that trend of it being warmer than normal has been going on for some time now). So, what's that mean for the coming month of July. Well, since the normal high and low for that month was 89/65 (Fahrenheit), then after applying an average 6.5 increase, you'd get 95.5 and 71.5 degrees respectively! Note that the thing about averages is that the actual temps will tend to wander around that average, with some days being higher while others could be much lower on any given day. So, while we might get a rainy day here and there that might help, we'd also get a lot of days that would see readings well above 100 degrees! [Wait! Is that what I'm forecasting for July?] No. I'm just prognosticating based on trends I've observed. It's also possible that July will turn out colder than normal, but I'm wouldn't bet the bank on that happening.

Another consideration for a really hot July would be the increased severity of any storms that might ride through an area on a frontal system or merely popup in the late afternoon. (The warmer and the moister the air packet, the faster and higher it will rise in the atmosphere). Such explosive potential is part of what can give rise to very large hail streaks, gustnadoes and the like. Oh, yes and lightening can also increase in intensity too! All in all, not a very fun scenario for those who spend time outdoors. At right, on an otherwise clear day, a couple of short-lived indicators for hail showed up at about 11AM in the morning!

The bottom line will be for everyone to be weather aware when out and about this summer. A weather radio would be a good thing to have, especially if you like to go boating.  www.taneyweather.com


Saturday, June 23, 2018

Sunday, June 24, could be interesting weather wise!

Taney County MO. - After a nice and quiet Saturday, the next day - Sunday, June 24 could prove to be anything but as the weather computers are forecasting a fast moving and energy laden storm system swooping out of Kansas into southwest Missouri early Sunday morning!

Depending on a number of factors, some unfortunate locations could see straight line winds, large hail and even tornadoes, as the frontal system sweeps through the region! www.taneyweather.com

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Doppler radar down in Springfield!

Anyone who might drive close to the Springfield Missouri airport may have spotted a tower with a white egg on top of it. That's the National Weather Service's Doppler radar which watches for storms all across southwestern Missouri. The trouble was that the radar went down on the 14th of June due to a storm that caused one of the 'gear joints' break, in the aging 25 year old tower. Repairs were expected to take as long as a week. Thankfully, this coincided with a period that saw few storms in the region.


In this National radar composite above, you can plainly see the gap in coverage circled in black. The other radar sites can be discerned as gray splotches.  Should repairs not finish before a major storm outbreak, the Springfield site will get assistance from other cities to try and help keep everyone from harm. When and until it's functioning again, everyone will need to be especially aware of any popup storms that might come their way!

This was the official notice published by the NWS on June 15:

The WSR-88D Doppler Radar (KSGF) at Springfield, Missouri has experienced a hardware failure and is not operational at this time. Parts have been ordered to repair the radar and National Weather

Service radar technicians will be on site this week to begin repairs. The radar will be restored to normal operation as soon as possible.

So, how long will the site be down? I'm betting it will be back up by Wednesday, June 20..But, then again, I'm an incurable optimist! Note: I did reach out, via email, to the NWS but never received a response back.... At any rate, the amount of time it takes this essential government agency to repair that device will be a good indicator of the health of the NWS!

www.taneyweather.com

Friday, June 15, 2018

Is Forsyth Missouri in increased wind and hail peril?

Is tornado alley moving to the east?
Forsyth MO. – In just three years, my home has been subject to three large hail events and two tornadoes! Insurance damage incurred had risen in the the thousands of dollars, leaving some folks wondering what the heck was going on?

It's really no secret that the climate is changing in front of our eyes in 2018. Global temperature averages are on the rise, and as it gets warmer, storms can develop more often with a tendency towards increased violence! That seems to be most definitely the case in my location in southwest Missouri as of late. And anyone who has ventured out in June, has certainly experienced the above average heat!

So, what's the deal? Can we expect storm system to become more numerous and severe in nature. The answer is sort of. In actuality, it isn't so much the storms themselves, as it is their locations that may be changing. And it's possible that the area of the Nation known as tornado alley may be shifting more to the east as other climate factors come into play! Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel has an interesting short video on this subject.

Traditionally, storms move more and more to the north as we enter into the summer months. It will be interesting to see if that pattern holds for the rest of 2018!

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Summer heat already?

Forsyth MO. – With the start of summer still a week away, June 2018 has proven to feel more like July. With 7 out of 14 days topping out at or above ninety degrees, one has to wonder what July and August will look like? Of course, when one brings up the topic of global warming, it's not the daily highs that need to be watched. It's the lows at night that 'could' bode ill for planet Earth. Thus far in June, the Forsyth Missouri area has averaged about six degrees above the 30 year historical average! And, as I've looked back over the prior months and years, the temps have 'most always' been at least two to three degrees warmer than that average, month after month.... year after year...

https://youtu.be/81-sSjPf57I
So, does that really mean anything to us in the short term? Yes, it does but most individuals would rather keep their heads buried in the sand on this issue. What they may not be able to handle, however, it the simple fact that when the nightly temperatures start to hang out in the mid 70's in a consistent manner and over a period of months – Well, the daily highs can then springboard up rather quickly to the nineties and beyond. And often, when you see this form of scalar temperature profile (one that always seems to be headed upward), the storms that tend to develop get even more severe than what we've all grown accustomed to! (In my home location, just this year thus far, we've already had a major hail storm and a tornado!

[Note: Looking back over just the last three years – Two F0 tornadoes and three hail storms that have totaled over seven thousand dollars in damage to me, or more specifically, my insurance company)!] Is the worst yet to come? Stay tuned!

Other than that, please enjoy your summer and let's all hope for a cool spell.... www.taneyweather.com

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Taney County Wx work week 1 - 2!

SATURDAY

The region will remain in a zone of broad lift in the mid level flow with limited moisture over riding the front across much of the area on Saturday. Model guidance continue to show light moisture as well as forecast soundings show a signal for freezing drizzle with the occasional light freezing rain shower or sleet shower. The main upper level system and support will arrive Saturday evening and night as it moves across the region. This feature will use what limited moisture is available and develop more areas of light freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet. There will be light snow across central Missouri back into eastern Kansas. All the light wintry weather will exit the area from west to east during Sunday morning. We are expecting at least a glaze of ice everywhere with up to a tenth to two tenths of ice possible for areas near I-44 and across southern Missouri. A coating of light sleet or light snow is possible everywhere with the best potential for up to a inch of snow across eastern Kansas into central Missouri.

SUNDAY

Sunday will struggle to get much above the freezing mark with the lows dipping back down into the 20's. 

MONDAY, FEB 12

Monday will be a seasonable day with sunshine and quiet weather. A broad west to southwesterly flow will set up for early and mid week with southern winds return by Tuesday. We will see our temps respond nicely back into the 50's by Tuesday and 60's by Wednesday and Thursday!

TUESDAY

The weather begins to improve on Tuesday as isentrophic upglide conditions bring in some overrunning warmer and moisture laden air! All that moisture will add to the cloud cover and a few showers, mainly over central and south Missouri would not be counted out!

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY

Spring-like temperatures are still expected Wednesday into Thursday as southerly winds increase. High temperatures will climb into the 60's both days and cannot rule out a few locations reaching 70 degrees on Thursday.





THURSDAY LATE

A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night as a broad low amplitude trough transitions eastward across the the northern CONUS. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will with the
frontal passage, especially along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor where moisture quality will be better.

FRIDAY

Strong cold air advection will follow the frontal passage on gusty northerly winds late Thursday night into Friday. This may bring a brief transition to light snow before the precipitation ends late
Thursday night into Friday morning. However little if any accumulation is expected.

Forecast certainty decreases this weekend into next week as a more active southwesterly flow evolves in response to a developing upper level trough out west. This will bring milder temperatures
back into the region along with periodic chances of precipitation into the middle of next week.







Saturday, January 27, 2018

Taney County weather going into Feb 2018!

SUNDAY – MONDAY [JANUARY 28]

On Sunday, a shortwave trough drops through the flow with an increase in 850mb-700mb moisture during the day and then moves across the area Sunday night with its associated cold front, so expect another mild day with highs well into the 50's. As the front/wave moves through Sunday night, models are beginning to indicate the potential for some light precipitation across the northern counties. At this point, thermal profiles from both the NAM and GFS would suggest light snow and or flurries. We are not expecting anything impactful (sp?), but could see a very light dusting at most. This will quickly exit early Monday morning with high pressure then building down across Kansas and Oklahoma for quiet but colder conditions both Monday and Monday night, as highs drop back into the 30's to near 40 and lows in the teens and 20's.

TUESDAY

The surface high moves off to the east Tuesday, with winds coming around to the south. The pressure gradient really tightens between the departing high and a strengthening cold front over the Plains. The combination of rising mid level heights and strong south to southwest winds will result in a warming trend, bring afternoon highs back into the 50's by Wednesday. In addition, these stronger winds Tuesday afternoon will result in elevated fire weather conditions, which may persist into Wednesday as well.

WEDNESDAY

It is still looking like there will be a potential for some winter weather Wednesday night and Thursday. However, confidence remains rather low in terms of precipitation type and amounts. A cold front is poised to move through Wednesday night ushering in colder air. The question will be the timing of precipitation onset. GFS is a little more bullish on QPF amounts versus the ECMWF, from Wednesday night into Thursday. It is still much to early for any specifics and as such will continue to mention a rain/snow potential. It is something to certainly keep an eye on since there could be potential impacts.

THURSDAY on...

Both the GFS and ECMWF pushes system through Thursday night with Friday and Friday night looking dry but cold. Catch more of my junk at www.taneyweather.com!

Friday, January 26, 2018

Are we in the midst of global warming? Yes, we are!

Taney County MO - In referencing the graphic above concerning the average temperatures, this year versus 2017, it was nice to see that the trend was headed upwards in a fairly normal fashion! Other than that rather nasty bout of frigid weather in the mid portion of the month, we've been following the 'global warming' forecast trend rather nicely. In January alone, we've enjoyed temps that have been 7 degrees Fahrenheit above the normal high and 13 above the normal lows! (And, as many people know, it's those elevated night time lows that are the most telling when it comes to talking about climate change). Not that I feel there's anything wrong with it being warmer than it used to. While many environmentalists wring their hands over rising global temperatures, I'm actually very happy. The truth be told, when you have a planet whose population is rising now towards 8 billion, you gotta expect a few unpleasant surprises. Remembering that even though the United States does throw out a lot of carbon dioxide, those amounts for America versus the shear magnitude of the other seven billion plus people in the rest of the world are relatively tiny. Billions of very poor people must cook and heat their 'homes' with an open fire. The carbon dioxide emitted by the practice is absolutely humongous. And sadly, the only way one could change that equation would be to kill off at least half the population! That ain't gonna happen (I hope), and so the global temps will continue to rise. (Thankfully, by the time any really serious effect are felt, quite a large amount of time will have passed). Scientific American published a great article on the topic in which they stated;

In less than 1,000 years, if consumption continues to increase at the current rate, we will have exhausted the currently known reserves of coal and oil. By that time we will have multiplied the carbon dioxide tonnage of the air 18 times. When the ocean–atmosphere system comes back to equilibrium, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air will be 10 times greater than it is today, and the earth will be 22 degrees warmer. In another few thousand years, when the carbonate content of the oceans has reached equilibrium, the concentration will still be four times greater than it is today. The earth's temperature will then fall to about 12.5 degrees above its present average.'

So, things look to warm up quite a bit, but will not be terribly punishing to humanity for a number of centuries. [Note: Most of the doom and gloom predictions assume that nothing changes and that we will all continue to throw CO2 into the air with wild abandon. Yet in all likelihood, humanity will have managed to kill off itself much sooner than that]! There exists an elephant standing right in the middle of our room that everyone is ignoring. Please see my post on the coming Water Wars for what is even more likely to happen in just a few decades!

Sunday, January 21, 2018

Week 3 in January 2018!

MONDAY – JAN 22

Winds will remain gusty through the day Monday as the upper low makes its way across northern Missouri through the day. Light rain or showers will be possible as the wrap around moisture slides along with the low. As temperatures fall, some snow may mix with the rain across portions of central Missouri Monday night. No snow accumulations are anticipated.



TUESDAY

Strong surfacelow pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the east as a ridge of high pressure over the Plains edges east. Expect northwest winds to gradually continue to diminish during this period. A shortwave will move southeast into the area by 12z/6am Wed but there is only a slight sfc reflection of this in pressure fields and only minimal cloud cover this far south.

WEDNESDAY

Looks quiet with a north-south oriented surface ridge axis moving through the region. I plan to take a long nap!

THURSDAY

South-southwest winds will increase as the sfc high shifts east and low pressure moves into the High Plains. Daytime highs in the upper 50s to around 60, afternoon humidity near 30 percent, and winds gusting to 30-35 mph over the western Missouri Ozarks Highlands into west central MO and southeast KS will heighten the fire danger. Our western cwfa missed out on significant precip with the last storm. In any case, one hour lag time grass/brush fuels will dry out quickly.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY

There is good agreement with guidance (other than some minor timing differences) for this period with a sfc low tracking well to the north and a trailing sfc front approaching and moving through Fri night-Sat. Looks like we will see a good chance for rain/light showers. Rainfall amounts don't look too
impressive with a lack overall moisture in a prefrontal highly modified Gulf air mass.

www.taneyweather.com

Sunday, January 14, 2018

A nice Jan 14 snowfall!

Forsyth MO. - Beginning sometime early on January the 14th, in southwest Missouri, a lot of folks got a real introduction to the winter of 2017-18 with the first decent snowfall in many a moon.

At my station, located in Forsyth Missouri, I was pleased to see this event happen as snow acts as a good insulator for plants and wildlife. (Please see my short video that shows the early onset)! This could prove to be especially important when one considers the brutal temperatures that will be arriving sometime on Tuesday! Also, thankfully, the main street appeared to be in good shape with plows out and about on the side streets. So, a nice looking and non-threatening gift from God that most of us can enjoy!

By the morning of the 15th, the snow had reached about 4 inches as of 10:00 AM with a light snow still falling!

Jan 14 snow day!


So, we have us some freezing temps, snow and slick roads. Hey! What's not to like! A January 14, 2018 short look at someplace near Forsyth MO. Just the kind of day to hang out in bed, with a cup of warm coco watching TV!

But, stay tuned for even more winter zaniness as temperatures are forecast to really bottom out on Tuesday, January the 16th!

 www.taneyweather.com

Friday, January 12, 2018

Weather for Jan 14 thru the 19th in Taney County!

SUNDAY, JANUARY 14

So, you think that perhaps maybe we're all due for a bit of a respite as the weekend winds down? Forget about it! A slightly stronger clipper like system will dive through the deep northerly flow Sunday morning across our region just in time for you to walk the dog. Models indicate enough moisture may be squeezed out for a quick band of snow flurries or light snow Sunday morning into the midday hours. The best potential of a light dusting to up to half an inch of snow will be north of Highway 60 which be the northern half of Springfield and which would not affect Taney County.

MONDAY

On the heels of the upper disturbance which brought 1-2 inches of snow from last night into Sunday, the next one will begin to arrive tonight, with snow expected to start up in central Missouri close to midnight and then spread southward across the remainder of the area overnight into Monday morning. Snow should end during the early afternoon across far southern Missouri. Another 1-2 inches of snow is expected with this disturbance, however temperatures will be falling throughout the day after a cold front moves through during the morning. Temperatures will likely dip into the teens to low 20's by the end of the afternoon with wind chills in the single digits. It will also be windier with the snowfall than it was with today's event, so there will be more blowing of snow. We will be issuing an winter weather advisory starting tonight at midnight and going through noon Monday for the snow.

TUESDAY

If there is fresh snow on the ground...we will see bitterly cold temperatures Monday night through Tuesday night with lows near or below zero and highs on Tuesday only in the lower to middle teens.

Potential wind chill values could drop as low as 10 to 20 below zero which is dangerously cold. I think even Nome Alaska might be marginally warmer...


ONWARD

The overall weather pattern flattens out and southerly winds return late next week with milder temperatures. This is a little too far out to have a very good handle on... but, here's a spoiler - anothe even more vicious Arctic Vortex may be in the offing!

 www.taneyweather.com

Sunday, January 7, 2018

January forecast for work week 8-12!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

For those of us who have been watching their electric meters spin, an overall milder weather pattern will develop beginning Monday. Thank goodness as we could all use a break! Look for 40ish weather, day time and near freezing overnight.

Very rapidly we are getting towards the mid part of January when the fun stuff - blizzards, snowfall and ice storms are slightly more likely to occur...


WEDNESDAY

A more zonal pattern and a return of warmer southerly winds will result in a warming trend with highs back in the 50's by Wednesday. I can live with that!

For Wed late, main upper level shortwave will track into the plains with precipitation beginning mainly after midnight in the form of rain. Temperatures will remain mild overnight in the low to mid 50s most places, with the front approaching the northwestern CWA by 12z. 

THURSDAY

We have gone with non-traditional diurnal temperature curve for the temperature forecast on Thursday with sharply falling temperatures behind the front. Those 50 degree readings at 6 AM will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s for much of the CWA by 6 pm. So even though it may be a non-coat start to the day, you will definitely want it for the drive home.

With the temperatures sharply falling below freezing behind the front during the day, precipitation will transition to a brief (1-3 hr) period of freezing rain and sleet before changing over to light snow before the precipitation ends. We are only anticipating a couple to few hundredths of ice accumulation with this system and maybe a trace up to a half inch of snow. What could go wrong with that scenario?

The precipitation should end by 12z Fri.