Taney County Wx work week 1 - 2!

SATURDAY

The region will remain in a zone of broad lift in the mid level flow with limited moisture over riding the front across much of the area on Saturday. Model guidance continue to show light moisture as well as forecast soundings show a signal for freezing drizzle with the occasional light freezing rain shower or sleet shower. The main upper level system and support will arrive Saturday evening and night as it moves across the region. This feature will use what limited moisture is available and develop more areas of light freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet. There will be light snow across central Missouri back into eastern Kansas. All the light wintry weather will exit the area from west to east during Sunday morning. We are expecting at least a glaze of ice everywhere with up to a tenth to two tenths of ice possible for areas near I-44 and across southern Missouri. A coating of light sleet or light snow is possible everywhere with the best potential for up to a inch of snow across eastern Kansas into central Missouri.

SUNDAY

Sunday will struggle to get much above the freezing mark with the lows dipping back down into the 20's. 

MONDAY, FEB 12

Monday will be a seasonable day with sunshine and quiet weather. A broad west to southwesterly flow will set up for early and mid week with southern winds return by Tuesday. We will see our temps respond nicely back into the 50's by Tuesday and 60's by Wednesday and Thursday!

TUESDAY

The weather begins to improve on Tuesday as isentrophic upglide conditions bring in some overrunning warmer and moisture laden air! All that moisture will add to the cloud cover and a few showers, mainly over central and south Missouri would not be counted out!

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY

Spring-like temperatures are still expected Wednesday into Thursday as southerly winds increase. High temperatures will climb into the 60's both days and cannot rule out a few locations reaching 70 degrees on Thursday.

THURSDAY LATE

A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night as a broad low amplitude trough transitions eastward across the the northern CONUS. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will with the

frontal passage, especially along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor where moisture quality will be better.

FRIDAY

Strong cold air advection will follow the frontal passage on gusty northerly winds late Thursday night into Friday. This may bring a brief transition to light snow before the precipitation ends late

Thursday night into Friday morning. However little if any accumulation is expected.

Forecast certainty decreases this weekend into next week as a more active southwesterly flow evolves in response to a developing upper level trough out west. This will bring milder temperatures

back into the region along with periodic chances of precipitation into the middle of next week.

 www.taneyweather.com

Taney County weather going into Feb 2018!

SUNDAY – MONDAY [JANUARY 28]

On Sunday, a shortwave trough drops through the flow with an increase in 850mb-700mb moisture during the day and then moves across the area Sunday night with its associated cold front, so expect another mild day with highs well into the 50's. As the front/wave moves through Sunday night, models are beginning to indicate the potential for some light precipitation across the northern counties. At this point, thermal profiles from both the NAM and GFS would suggest light snow and or flurries. We are not expecting anything impactful (sp?), but could see a very light dusting at most. This will quickly exit early Monday morning with high pressure then building down across Kansas and Oklahoma for quiet but colder conditions both Monday and Monday night, as highs drop back into the 30's to near 40 and lows in the teens and 20's.

TUESDAY

The surface high moves off to the east Tuesday, with winds coming around to the south. The pressure gradient really tightens between the departing high and a strengthening cold front over the Plains. The combination of rising mid level heights and strong south to southwest winds will result in a warming trend, bring afternoon highs back into the 50's by Wednesday. In addition, these stronger winds Tuesday afternoon will result in elevated fire weather conditions, which may persist into Wednesday as well.

WEDNESDAY

It is still looking like there will be a potential for some winter weather Wednesday night and Thursday. However, confidence remains rather low in terms of precipitation type and amounts. A cold front is poised to move through Wednesday night ushering in colder air. The question will be the timing of precipitation onset. GFS is a little more bullish on QPF amounts versus the ECMWF, from Wednesday night into Thursday. It is still much to early for any specifics and as such will continue to mention a rain/snow potential. It is something to certainly keep an eye on since there could be potential impacts.

THURSDAY on...

Both the GFS and ECMWF pushes system through Thursday night with Friday and Friday night looking dry but cold. Catch more of my junk at www.taneyweather.com!

Week 3 in January 2018!

MONDAY – JAN 22

Winds will remain gusty through the day Monday as the upper low makes its way across northern Missouri through the day. Light rain or showers will be possible as the wrap around moisture slides along with the low. As temperatures fall, some snow may mix with the rain across portions of central Missouri Monday night. No snow accumulations are anticipated.

TUESDAY

Strong surfacelow pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the east as a ridge of high pressure over the Plains edges east. Expect northwest winds to gradually continue to diminish during this period. A shortwave will move southeast into the area by 12z/6am Wed but there is only a slight sfc reflection of this in pressure fields and only minimal cloud cover this far south.

WEDNESDAY

Looks quiet with a north-south oriented surface ridge axis moving through the region. I plan to take a long nap!

THURSDAY

South-southwest winds will increase as the sfc high shifts east and low pressure moves into the High Plains. Daytime highs in the upper 50s to around 60, afternoon humidity near 30 percent, and winds gusting to 30-35 mph over the western Missouri Ozarks Highlands into west central MO and southeast KS will heighten the fire danger. Our western cwfa missed out on significant precip with the last storm. In any case, one hour lag time grass/brush fuels will dry out quickly.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY

There is good agreement with guidance (other than some minor timing differences) for this period with a sfc low tracking well to the north and a trailing sfc front approaching and moving through Fri night-Sat. Looks like we will see a good chance for rain/light showers. Rainfall amounts don't look too

impressive with a lack overall moisture in a prefrontal highly modified Gulf air mass.

www.taneyweather.com

January forecast for work week 8-12!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

For those of us who have been watching their electric meters spin, an overall milder weather pattern will develop beginning Monday. Thank goodness as we could all use a break! Look for 40ish weather, day time and near freezing overnight.

Very rapidly we are getting towards the mid part of January when the fun stuff - blizzards, snowfall and ice storms are slightly more likely to occur...

WEDNESDAY

A more zonal pattern and a return of warmer southerly winds will result in a warming trend with highs back in the 50's by Wednesday. I can live with that!

For Wed late, main upper level shortwave will track into the plains with precipitation beginning mainly after midnight in the form of rain. Temperatures will remain mild overnight in the low to mid 50s most places, with the front approaching the northwestern CWA by 12z. 

THURSDAY

We have gone with non-traditional diurnal temperature curve for the temperature forecast on Thursday with sharply falling temperatures behind the front. Those 50 degree readings at 6 AM will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s for much of the CWA by 6 pm. So even though it may be a non-coat start to the day, you will definitely want it for the drive home.

With the temperatures sharply falling below freezing behind the front during the day, precipitation will transition to a brief (1-3 hr) period of freezing rain and sleet before changing over to light snow before the precipitation ends. We are only anticipating a couple to few hundredths of ice accumulation with this system and maybe a trace up to a half inch of snow. What could go wrong with that scenario?

The precipitation should end by 12z Fri.

Taney County work week 1 in 2018!

MONDAY – January 1

Welcome to a New Year and Ice Station Zebra! The center of the surface high that has been responsible for the arctic chill down will move deeper into the area Monday and Monday night. Therefore similar conditions are expected to what you all have become used to the last couple of days. Winds will thankfully become lighter, but with temps below zero it only takes a 3-5mph wind to send wind chills back to -10 or below.

TUESDAY – January 2

The Wind Chill Advisory runs through midday Tuesday. Several records for low temps are in jeopardy on this date. Other than that, it will be a pleasure for many who will be returning to work. Assuming it's an indoor job, that is!

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY

Surface high moves south of the area Wednesday and winds will switch around to the southwest. (About time)! Temps will start to rebound for a short time, however another shot of cold air comes down Wednesday night into Thursday. This insult will be more of a glancing blow, mainly affecting the eastern half of the area with the coldest temps. Here in Taney County it will only be in the teens...

FRIDAY – January 5

By Friday, the southwest half of the forecast area should see temperatures climb above freezing for highs with areas in central Missouri in the mid to upper 20's. However, the upper pattern will be in transition as the upper trough shifts eastward and ridging begins to move into the plains. Our temperatures by Saturday should reach the mid 30's northeast to mid 40's southwest.

SATURDAY

Precipitation should begin to move into the area Saturday night and continue through the remainder of the weekend as an upper level system shifts east through the area. Most of the time period looks like it would be in the form of rain, with some chances of snow thrown in with the colder nighttime temperatures.

SUNDAY

Models show light precipitation developing over southeast Kansas into southwestern Missouri by sunrise Sunday. One aspect is for certain, the ground is cold and frozen with several inches of frost depth. The question then remains how the air temperatures will respond and how quickly does the area warm up above freezing Sunday morning into the afternoon as warm air advection moves in. The freezing line will slowly retread from west to east during the day Sunday. A light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow will progress across the area especially along and east

of Highway 65 Sunday morning. As temperatures warm up above freezing, it will turn over to a cold rain. A light glaze of ice along with a coating of light sleet and light snow look increasing likely for areas along and east of Highway 65. The greatest potential for minor accumulations will be over the eastern Ozarks where temperatures stay coldest the longest. Some travel impacts look likely over the eastern areas.

Most of the area changes over to cold rain late Sunday afternoon. As temperatures drop back down Sunday night, some of the rain could change back over to a light wintry mix again before ending from west to east. Overall a general half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall may be possible with this system.

A milder and drier weather pattern returns for early next week with above average temperatures. High temperatures in the 50s will return by the middle of next week. There will be another storm system to affect the area by Thursday with rainfall. Colder air will return on the back side of that system and change the rain to snow later in the week.

Christmas work week forecast!

MONDAY – DECEMBER 25

A cloudy yet quiet day with the high temperature only in the mid 30's. Monday will likely be the warmest day of the work week! Hoping everyone has a safe and a Merry Christmas!

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY

Chilly northeast breezes continues tomorrow as highs only make it into the upper 20s and lower 30s. A couple flurries are not out of the question, but certainly no accumulations.

THURSDAY

Another upper level wave will pass overhead on Thursday. Models are not showing much QPF with this system either, although we could see more flurries with Thursday's wave.

FRIDAY

Friday will be the "warm" day of the week before another surge of cold air begins to move in Friday night. Bitter cold will be the main highlights of the forecast for the weekend and New Years Day before temperatures moderate somewhat by midweek. Some very light snow or flurries will be possible at times this weekend. Temperatures will moderate a little with some s-se winds. Some highs in the low 40's may be possible in our southern MO counties with 30's elsewhere. So, some of you might want to go shinny dipping in your local pond....

FRIDAY NIGHT

A bitter arctic air mass will settle in over the region for this period. As the cold air first comes in, we

could see some frontogenetically induced flurries/light snow late Fri night into Sat. Nothing major. However, given the high snow:liquid ratios it won't take much to get a light accumulation.

Guidance is also showing some upglide into southern MO into cold air dome late Sat night into Sunday morning. Again, a light fluffy accumulation (< 1 inch) is in the grids for parts of southern MO. There is fairly low confidence in this right now. We certainly aren't looking at a big snow dumper during this forecast period, but any flurries and light accumulating snow will just add insult to injury given how cold it will be.

Forecast guidance which had been quite variable as far as temperatures are concerned are now finding some middle ground. The coldest period looks to be Sunday through Monday night. Some below zero temperatures are expected for early New Year's morning.

LOOKING AHEAD

Some weak moderation in temperature is expected Tuesday as the center of the cold sfc high moves off to the south and another trough approaches from the northwest. By Wednesday, guidance diverges in the timing/position of another Canadian high moving south into the area. In general it does look like we may see some moderation in temperatures later in the week (beyond Wed) as the upper flow tries to become more west-east zonal over the central CONUS. www.taneyweather.com

Taney weather for work week Dec 18-22!

MONDAY - FRIDAY

Yawn! Temperatures heading into Monday and then on through the week will remain in the 50's during the day with overnight temperatures in the 30's for the most part, thanks to continuing southwesterly flow aloft across the region. For me that translates into a cross between hibernating and hitting the bars!

THURSDAY

Very warm and breezy conditions are expected on Thursday as a surface low and cold front move into KS/OK area. There are still timing differences among various guidance sims concerning the fropa (frontal passage) timing and this is mainly dependent on how strong surface waves will develop along the front. The warm sector is initially characterized by modest low level moisture and not much in the way of rain chances. This gradually changes as the front moves into eastern MO.

FRIDAY

The main focus for Friday continues to be the potential for snow from Friday night into Saturday morning. Models continue to depict a short wave trough pivoting east across the region during this period, with this wave shearing (weakening) with time. An area of rain should initially expand from southwest to northeast from the Arklatex into southeastern Missouri during the day on Friday as low and mid-level frontogenesis strengthens ahead of that approaching short wave trough.

One of the keys to the forecast will then be how much additional precipitation development can take place farther north into the "cold sector" of this developing low pressure system from eastern

Oklahoma into southern Missouri. Close inspection of model cross sections indicates that this window may be shrinking from both a spatial and temporal standpoint.

SATURDAY

Unseasonably cold air will move south out of Canada during this time. Can't rule out some flurries or a light dusting accumulation in some spots, especially Sunday, with the passage of a shortwave, but again, not looking at much if anything at all. Christmas Day may be a struggle to get above freezing in many/most areas.

SUNDAY

Digging energy across the Plains may then bring another chance for some light snow to the region from late Saturday night into Sunday. There are still considerable differences regarding the track of this energy, thus we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range for now.

Global models from the early to middle portions of next week are then struggling from a consistency standpoint. We went on the cold side with temperatures as GFS five wave charts indicate a good

signal for cross polar flow and an amplified trough over eastern North America. There are some signals for more precipitation chances by midweek, however confidence remains low due to the aforementioned inconsistency with models.

 www.taneyweather.com

Taney County weather for last work week of November!

MONDAY

Light southerly winds and some passing cirrus were keeping temps in the low 40's east to the low 50's west for Monday early. A developing surface low pressure across Arkansas will then move slowly east as the day progresses. This combined with rising heights/thicknesses and a tightening pressure gradient across the plains will result in a very warm and windy day today across the Taney County area. We went a few degrees higher than guidance for highs given latest performance of overachieving highs during these southwest wind setups. Also, computers models have handled expected dew points poorly lately, especially during peak afternoon mixing and have followed alternative thinking for today which promotes a slower moisture return. This dry air will bode potentially ill winds, as a result...

The warm and windy conditions will only exacerbate the fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning will be issued for portions of the area on Monday. Southerly winds will also help to keep temps up tonight ahead of a cold front moving south into Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa. Fun times!

TUESDAY

A weather front is forecast to dig into the Rockies on Tuesday with an associated cold front moving through in the evening as low pressure develops across Oklahoma. This system, while compact, will not have much moisture or instability with it and rainfall amounts will be rather light on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through. Models move this system through rather slowly and eventually a wave to our north will kick it along Wednesday night along with a stronger cold front.

WEDNESDAY

After the balmy temperatures of the last few days, cooler temperatures are on tap for Wednesday with highs expected to be in the upper 50's to perhaps lower 60's. These temperatures out there are still a solid 10-15 degrees above normal. So, we can't complain too much!

Lingering light rain showers may then hold on across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday morning as another short wave trough quickly moves into the region behind the departing closed upper level low. Otherwise, dry weather will return to the area for the remainder of the week. Temperatures through Saturday will remain above normal with highs in the upper 5'0s to lower 60's and lows in generally in the 30's.

AHEM....

Global models then continue to indicate a large scale pattern change as we get into next week. However, significant differences remain in the synoptic scale regarding timing and placement of

troughs. The good news is that regardless of any particular model solution, we should stand increasing chances for precipitation starting early next week as a southwesterly flow aloft develops and Gulf of Mexico moisture returns north.

Looking ahead, five wave charts indicate a long wave pattern which would then support a deepening trough over eastern North America with a signal for cross-polar flow. If this pans out, much colder temperatures may be on the way as we get towards the end of next week. See the Climate section below for more detailed information.

LOOKING AHEAD

By Sunday, an upper level trough will develop across the western U.S. with a sharp upper level ridge building along the West Coast into southwest Canada. A strong cold front will start sliding

southward across the Central Plains and move into our region Monday night. Ahead of the front on Monday, winds will be breezy 15 to 20 mph. Models indicate a good chance of widespread light rainfall Monday night into Tuesday across the area with QPF amounts around a quarter of an inch. There may be just enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder but no severe weather is

expected.

A large and deep trough develops and digs across the Great Lakes Region into the Midwest Region by the middle of next week. All medium and long range guidance indicates a much colder weather pattern will likely develop with below normal temperatures for the middle and end of next week.

 www.taneyweather.com

Work week # 2 in Febraury 2017!

MONDAY TO BE STORMY

TUESDAY – THURSDAY

Very little temperature change is expected with the passage of Monday night's PAC front as temperatures bounce back into the 60's on Tuesday.

A Canadian front then approaches from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will bring colder temperatures to the Ozarks. We could also experience a brief band of light rain or snow on

Thursday. Models have been signaling this band of precipitation for several runs now, however, the positioning of this band has varied with each model run. So the snow risk on Thursday is very uncertain at this time.

By next weekend, a brief upper level ridge of high pressure will create warmer temperatures and dry weather for the Ozarks.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY

The temperatures will swing back to the warm side very quickly Fri with southwest winds and a retreating dry air mass as the sfc (surface) high moves east and southeast of the area and mid level height rises move into the central CONUS (Continental United States). Could see highs near 80 deg F over the far southwest corner Saturday, but a fly in the ointment may be increased clouds with low level moisture advection. Potential weather impacts during this time will be fire weather related, particularly Friday with warm temperatures, low humidity, and increased southwest winds, especially over the western cwfa.

Sat night-Monday: Another front is expected to move through Sat night-Sunday with a chance of showers. Forecast builder/grids only have a low probability for thunder. The ECMWF is not robust at all with precipitation along the front and a quick glance at progged soundings off the GFS show fairly shallow moisture and/or capping. Cooler and dry weather is expected Monday behind the front.

SUNDAY

Some changes are in the forecast later on. We still expect a split flow pattern to develop over the CONUS with a northern stream shortwave pushing a cold front through the area late Sat night. Have backed off on rain chances somewhat, but some post frontal drizzle or very light rain will still be possible over the southern cwfa (county wide forecast area) Sunday.

Monday-Tuesdayish: The main question will be how far north precipitation can make it as a closed low along the AZ/NM/Mexican border in the southern stream of the upper flow Monday ejects out. 6AM guidance has the ECMWF much farther north with the track of the upper wave with more potential for precipitation versus the GFS. [We can only hope]. The forecast is a compromise blend favoring the best chances over southern MO. There is not much cold air north of the low in either case, but the forecast builder does spit out some sleet and snow Monday night with low/mid 30s temperatures. At this point we are not anticipating much adverse impact given the relatively warm temperatures (and relatively low confidence in the storm track).  www.taneyservices.com

Taney County weather for work week #3 in December!

Monday, Dec 19: - After enduring the deep freeze of the previous weekend, southerly winds and the back side of high pressure will start the slow moderation of temperatures on Monday. Highs will try to reach the freezing mark. More seasonable temperatures return by the middle of the week. The weather pattern will be mostly zonal this week and quiet and dry weather. A weak front may try to move across the area Wednesday night into early Thursday but not much associated with it.

Friday, Dec 23rd: A more complex and unsettled weather pattern will evolve later Friday into the Christmas Holiday weekend. Watch out on Friday morning as there could be some freezing rain in the morning hours, before it changes over to all rain later on! A lead minor shortwave trough will eject northeastward toward the Ozarks Friday night and Saturday. A warm air/moisture advection pattern will setup resulting in the development of light precipitation Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation could be a light wintry mix Friday night and early Saturday especially across the eastern Ozarks. However little if any accumulation or impact is expected at this time given that temperatures may only touch the freezing mark. However something to monitor considering we are heading into the Holiday weekend.

Dec 24 & 25: Well, it's officially winter now, and while a snowstorm is now predicted for the northern tier of states, it's likely to be a warm and toasty 60 plus degrees down here in Taney County MO. Scattered showers will likely develop Saturday night into Sunday. The coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase from the west during the afternoon and evening on Christmas Day as a strong surface low pressure system tracks into the northern Plains and an attendant cold front swings into the Ozarks. The greatest chance for thunderstorms looks to be Sunday night. Merry Christmas all! And, don't forget yer rubbers! Gee! Now I'm wondering if Obama was right about that Global warming stuff! I understand he will be leaving office and then heading for Russia to help Putin with his economy... good luck with that!

Merry Christmas all!    www.taneyservices.com

Taney County Mo work week #2!

As we all bid a fond farewell in the rear view mirror to the deep freeze that came to pay a visit us in the first week of December... also, please note that all information presented here is excerpted from news releases from the Springfield office of the National Weather Service.

Weekend- Dec 10 and 11

A general warming trend is expected this weekend as highs warm back into the 40's and even low 50's by Sunday as southerly warm air advection kicks in. Some light precipitation/drizzle is possible early in the day on Sunday, and we all could normally use that. But, watch out! A very brief period of freezing drizzle or a wintry mix is possible as morning lows will be down in the 30s, although the overall potential appears low at this time. How's that for waffling folks?

Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon, before ending Sunday night as a front swings through the area. Rainfall amounts will be light--generally a tenth of an inch or less.

Monday thru Wednesday - Dec 14...

Things then look quiet until mid to late in the week, when guidance brings another front through the area. It's still way too murky to see clearly what exactly will happen at that point, however. Significant run to run and model to model differences persist with this system, so confidence is quite low with any details. There is a general consensus in another solid shot of cold air, although ensemble temperature solutions range anywhere from near zero to the upper 20's. (Damn those finicky super computers)! Precipitation potential is also all over the map, though it's worth mentioning that anything that DOES fall would likely be wintry in nature.

 Next weekend - Sat, Dec 17...

For the latest, as of late Friday evening, please jump over to http://forsythkid.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-weekend-of-dec-17th-taney-county-mo.html?spref=fb

After a rather warm start on Saturday morning, the bottom then looks to fall out during the mid to late morning hours as a very strong cold front sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front (likely falling several degrees per hour) through the afternoon hours.

Most of the precipitation with the above mentioned frontal passage will be along and behind the front, making for a somewhat complicated forecast as very cold air rushes into the region behind the front. Right now, it looks like rain will give way to a very brief period of freezing rain and then sleet, as the post-frontal air mass deepens. Freezing rain/sleet accumulations should be little to none. A more organized band of snow is then expected to sweep south into the area, though it is expected to dissipate as it starts to reach the I-44 corridor. Snow totals are currently expected to be around an inch across the Highway 54 corridor, decreasing to around a half inch along I-44, including Joplin, Rolla, and the Springfield metro. South of US 60, only a dusting is expected. so, we look good to go!

www.taneyservices.com

Taney County weather for December work week #1!

Oh boy! A whole new month is here and it's one in which we will begin the start of winter on the 21^st! Be still my heart! Note that the average high temp is 46ºF while the low is a cold 24ºF!

Taney County MO. - One thing, for sure, we are hurting in the rainfall department for the year as we are currently about 18 inches behind the average here in Taney County, Missouri. And, it's doubtful that this December (which sees about 3.7 inches on average) will make much of a dent in that. I'd also hazard a guess that any snow could be in short supply! Well, it's still the month of Christmas (you now as in giving), and I want you all to feel free to send me presents or cash or whatever!

Monday, December 5

The upper low is expected to finally move northeast from northern Mexico and TX through the lower MS Valley by late Mon-Mon night with another chance for a rain with highest chances (pops) over the eastern county warning forecast area.

Tuesday - Dec 6

On Tuesday lift will increase on Monday and Tuesday, bringing another round of widespread rainfall to southern Missouri. By late Tuesday this 2nd round of rain will exit to the east.





Wednesday - Dec 7

The coldest air mass of the season so far along with light precipitation will move into the Ozarks During the day Wednesday with the potential for some light snow fall during the and tapering off into Wednesday night. Temperatures will only reach the low to middle 30's for the highs on Wednesday with overnight temperatures into Thursday in the teens with a potential for some light snow accumulation on the ground for Thursday.

 Thursday thru Friday - Dec 8 to 9

Strong northwesterly flow aloft will allow for an arctic air mass to dive as far south as the Texas Gulf Coast and bring Cold temperatures to the region through the end of the work week. Highs on Thursday will likely not climb out of the 20's for most locations and only into the lower 30's on Friday.

The region will see a brief warm up for the weekend as winds turn out of the south again. This will allow temperature to climb into the lower 40s. A cold front then looks to move through the region to start the next work week. The overall pattern remains rather active this week and into next with storm systems moving across the region every 2 to 3 days.

www.taneyservices.com

Weather for work week starting Monday, July 18!

Forsyth MO. - Here we go entering the 3rd week of July, which is climatologically the hottest week of the year for the Missouri Ozarks.

It's great timing for a massive summertime high pressure system to build over the Nation's mid section starting tomorrow and continuing through the upcoming work week.

This summertime high will cause temperatures and heat indices to soar, likely bringing some Heat Advisories to the region through most of the week.

Global computer runs are wanting to keep our far east in northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure in full "ring of fire" fashion. The may open the door for additional MCS potential next week across our eastern locations and isolated afternoon/evening pulse-type cells elsewhere.

As of the middle of July, we were still over eight inches below the 30 year average and so could use some additional rainfall before the month is out. Interestingly, there is not much happening in the way of Hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Many experts were expecting the prevailing La Nina weather pattern to fuel a surplus of these storms for 2016. So far, nada.

 Saturday, July 16 - With some of the hottest weather on tap for the coming week, with heat indexes reaching 105 and more - And, right on cue, my AC decided to give up the ghost. Swell.

The long wave and synoptic scale pattern will feature a strengthening ridge of high pressure over the region for the entire work week period. While there is an outside shot at a thunderstorm across the eastern Ozarks Tuesday afternoon, we are mainly expecting dry conditions all week.

Tuesday, July 19 - Little if any relief in sight through the weekend. If anything it will get hotter with daytime highs approaching the 100 degree mark. 

[information excerpted for www.taneyservices.com]