Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Taney County weather week three including Thanksgiving!

TUESDAY - THANKSGIVING

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Tuesday with short wave energy digging southeast across the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this wave will quickly move southeast
across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from late this morning into this afternoon.

The 00Z GFS spits out some light QPF with this front late this morning and early this afternoon, however inspection of forecast soundings indicates that the low levels will be too dry to support a mention of rain showers. We will see quite a bit of cloud cover today, especially in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The passing front and cloud cover make high temperatures a tough call today. We are getting a fairly warm start this morning with most areas in the 40's. We should therefore be able to warm into the middle to upper 50's for highs. It should be noted that temperatures may actually steady off or even begin to fall behind that front north of the Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then build south across Kansas into northern Oklahoma Tuesday late. It looks like a rather chilly night under clear skies with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s.

With that high remaining west of the region, we will maintain a north wind overnight in the 5-10 mph range. This will drop wind chills into the middle and upper teens. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist with occasional short wave energy diving southeast in the flow. These passing short waves will do nothing more than drag dry cold fronts through the region every three to four days. This will bode well for anyone with travel plans across the region from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

As you would expect, temperatures will fluctuate in this type of pattern. We will see a nice warming trend starting on Thanksgiving with highs warming well into 50's. Highs in the 60's are then expected for Friday before temperatures cool back down a bit for next weekend.

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