Friday, December 15, 2017

Taney weather for work week Dec 18-22!

MONDAY - FRIDAY

Yawn! Temperatures heading into Monday and then on through the week will remain in the 50's during the day with overnight temperatures in the 30's for the most part, thanks to continuing southwesterly flow aloft across the region. For me that translates into a cross between hibernating and hitting the bars!



THURSDAY

The mild weather will continue through Thursday as semi zonal flow occurs behind the system late Tuesday night. A cold front will then begin to approach the region Thursday evening into early
Friday morning. This system will bring another shot at some very light precipitation but more importantly will bring a colder and much more winter like air mass to the Ozarks.

FRIDAY

Behind the front on Friday, day time temperatures will struggle to make it to 40 degrees for all but the eastern Ozarks as the front moves slowly east. By the weekend afternoon highs will be in the 30's for nearly all locations with some areas across south central Missouri that may approach near the 40 degree mark.




SNOW?

Models have been hinting at precipitation for Sunday, Christmas Eve Day, but there are significant issues with the coverage, timing and track of what appears to be a weak system. Will continue to watch the trend for now.






Friday, December 1, 2017

December work week numero one for Taney County!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

A big trough will develop and dig across the central U.S. Early this week. A strong cold front will move into the region Monday afternoon. Monday will be a warm and windy day with some wind gusts over 35 mph possible. Model guidance indicate a few shower possible over eastern Kansas by late Monday morning to midday. A broken line of storms will quickly develop right along the cold front by mid to late afternoon Monday. Most unstable CAPE values may be up to 1000 J/KG along with very strong shear. There appears to be at least a marginal threat for a couple strong to isolated severe storms possible across the Ozarks Region Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Given the dynamics, isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph may be the main threat. The great chance of rainfall and amounts will be along the I-44 corridor and southeastward. The front and storms clear through the Ozarks region shortly after midnight.

The upper level trough continues to establish itself over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region by Tuesday. It will be a cool and breezy day across the Ozarks.

WEDNESDAY

A deep trough weather pattern sets up across the Midwest and eastern U.S. for the middle of next week with deep northerly flow across our region. High temperatures will only be in the upper 30's to low 40's with overnight lows in the 20s. It looks like we will likely see a couple shortwaves riding through the upper level flow of the trough and associated fronts which will reinforce the colder weather for the latter part of the week.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Guidance continues to show a strong shortwave digging and moving across the Midwest Region into the Ohio River Valley on Friday with a clipper like system moving across the area. This feature may bring another chance for snow flurries across portions of the region. At this time, we do not see any impacts but will monitor future trends. The latest guidance has come in colder for the end of the week and forecast temperatures have reflected that. We will likely see highs only in the 30's and overnight lows in the teens and 20's. Wind chills may drop into the single digits by Friday and Saturday. Some moderation in temperatures may return by next weekend.

No matter what, it will definitely feel more like winter next week. So dig out the winter coats and make sure you're full of eggnog before heading out!

www.taneyweather.com

Monday, November 27, 2017

Taney County weather for last work week of November!

MONDAY

Light southerly winds and some passing cirrus were keeping temps in the low 40's east to the low 50's west for Monday early. A developing surface low pressure across Arkansas will then move slowly east as the day progresses. This combined with rising heights/thicknesses and a tightening pressure gradient across the plains will result in a very warm and windy day today across the Taney County area. We went a few degrees higher than guidance for highs given latest performance of overachieving highs during these southwest wind setups. Also, computers models have handled expected dew points poorly lately, especially during peak afternoon mixing and have followed alternative thinking for today which promotes a slower moisture return. This dry air will bode potentially ill winds, as a result...

The warm and windy conditions will only exacerbate the fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning will be issued for portions of the area on Monday. Southerly winds will also help to keep temps up tonight ahead of a cold front moving south into Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa. Fun times!

TUESDAY

A weather front is forecast to dig into the Rockies on Tuesday with an associated cold front moving through in the evening as low pressure develops across Oklahoma. This system, while compact, will not have much moisture or instability with it and rainfall amounts will be rather light on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through. Models move this system through rather slowly and eventually a wave to our north will kick it along Wednesday night along with a stronger cold front.

WEDNESDAY

After the balmy temperatures of the last few days, cooler temperatures are on tap for Wednesday with highs expected to be in the upper 50's to perhaps lower 60's. These temperatures out there are still a solid 10-15 degrees above normal. So, we can't complain too much!

Lingering light rain showers may then hold on across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday morning as another short wave trough quickly moves into the region behind the departing closed upper level low. Otherwise, dry weather will return to the area for the remainder of the week. Temperatures through Saturday will remain above normal with highs in the upper 5'0s to lower 60's and lows in generally in the 30's.

AHEM....

Global models then continue to indicate a large scale pattern change as we get into next week. However, significant differences remain in the synoptic scale regarding timing and placement of
troughs. The good news is that regardless of any particular model solution, we should stand increasing chances for precipitation starting early next week as a southwesterly flow aloft develops and Gulf of Mexico moisture returns north.

Looking ahead, five wave charts indicate a long wave pattern which would then support a deepening trough over eastern North America with a signal for cross-polar flow. If this pans out, much colder temperatures may be on the way as we get towards the end of next week. See the Climate section below for more detailed information.

LOOKING AHEAD

By Sunday, an upper level trough will develop across the western U.S. with a sharp upper level ridge building along the West Coast into southwest Canada. A strong cold front will start sliding
southward across the Central Plains and move into our region Monday night. Ahead of the front on Monday, winds will be breezy 15 to 20 mph. Models indicate a good chance of widespread light rainfall Monday night into Tuesday across the area with QPF amounts around a quarter of an inch. There may be just enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder but no severe weather is
expected.

A large and deep trough develops and digs across the Great Lakes Region into the Midwest Region by the middle of next week. All medium and long range guidance indicates a much colder weather pattern will likely develop with below normal temperatures for the middle and end of next week.

 www.taneyweather.com

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

November – An overnight freezing event!

Forsyth MO. – Even though the thermometer had dropped a bit below the freezing mark (29ºF) on the evening before, I thought it might be worthwhile to chronicle the Tuesday, November 21, 2017.

The weather forecast for Taney County, located in southwest Missouri, was as follows;

 'AM Clouds/PM Sun. High near 60ºF. WSW winds shifting to NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Nighttime: Clear. Low 27ºF. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph'.

A high pressure system, that was forecast to build off to the west of my area overnight was the supposed culprit, as it would bring (initially) northerly winds and clear skies. Oh joy! This sort of development would also have a rather poor effect on the day Wednesday, with the only good news being a return to better temps as the winds swing around on Thursday, after its passage off to the east!

[more to come...]

Taney County weather week three including Thanksgiving!

TUESDAY - THANKSGIVING

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Tuesday with short wave energy digging southeast across the western Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this wave will quickly move southeast
across southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from late this morning into this afternoon.

The 00Z GFS spits out some light QPF with this front late this morning and early this afternoon, however inspection of forecast soundings indicates that the low levels will be too dry to support a mention of rain showers. We will see quite a bit of cloud cover today, especially in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The passing front and cloud cover make high temperatures a tough call today. We are getting a fairly warm start this morning with most areas in the 40's. We should therefore be able to warm into the middle to upper 50's for highs. It should be noted that temperatures may actually steady off or even begin to fall behind that front north of the Interstate 44 corridor this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will then build south across Kansas into northern Oklahoma Tuesday late. It looks like a rather chilly night under clear skies with lows dipping into the lower to middle 20s.

With that high remaining west of the region, we will maintain a north wind overnight in the 5-10 mph range. This will drop wind chills into the middle and upper teens. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist with occasional short wave energy diving southeast in the flow. These passing short waves will do nothing more than drag dry cold fronts through the region every three to four days. This will bode well for anyone with travel plans across the region from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

As you would expect, temperatures will fluctuate in this type of pattern. We will see a nice warming trend starting on Thanksgiving with highs warming well into 50's. Highs in the 60's are then expected for Friday before temperatures cool back down a bit for next weekend.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Third November week to see hard freeze?

Blue line is the freezing mark!

Tuesday, November the 21st, and then again on the following Sunday, November the 27th both look to be Taney County's (probable) first encounter with seriously cold temperatures over night. And while ground and roads would be too warm for any problems to occur, it might still be a thought to make sure that you are 'winter' ready. If you have a home with outside water spigots, make sure that any hoses are disconnected. I you have a crawl space – now would be a good time to make sure that any vents are closed and that exposed pipes have some form of insulation. Failing that, place a small space heater there and perhaps let a few faucets drip overnight! Seriously, a broken water pipe is no fun! www.taneyweather.com

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Taney weather November 13 to 17!

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 12

On Sunday, front pushes away from the area with high pressure building southward into the region in the afternoon.Yeppers, it's that dreaded time of the year, when the weather is both annoying and boring to most everyone!





MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13

After a cloudy start to the day, clouds should be on the decrease in the afternoon, with clear skies Sunday night into Monday.

The high shifts off to the east Monday night, with return flow on its backside which continues through Tuesday night. Warm advection showers are expected during this time frame, but should be
scattered in nature. Whoppee!


TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14

Computer models do forecast a few hundred j/kg of most unstable CAPE Tuesday night as low level jet noses into the forecast area. Will have to watch for the potential for some thunder. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the upswing with highs ranging from the middle 60's in southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri, to the upper 50's across the eastern Ozarks. Everyone! Grab your shorts!


WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 15

The 'somewhat active' weather pattern will continue for mid week as yet another upper trough and surface front is poised to move through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will keep the shower chances going through the period, which may last into Thursday depending on frontal position.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16 AND ONWARD

A more zonal pattern will setup for late in the week and another upper level disturbance may track trough the region during the later part of next week bringing additional chances for rain with it's
passage on Friday. www.taneyweather.com