Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Some weather concerns for Thursday, Jan 16 2020!

Thursday will be cooler behind a cold front combined with clouds overhead. Expect highs from the upper 30's N to the mid 40's S.

The NWS was concerned about wintry precipitation chances Thursday night into Friday morning. Surface ridging shifts east while a shortwave trough and associated surface trough moves into the western Plains. This will lead to warm air advection over a shallow cold layer. The questions are: How warm is that warm nose, how cold is the near surface cold layer, and how much precipitation will actually fall?

Most models agree that the near surface cold layer will be near or below freezing over much of the area after evaporative cooling takes place. There is some disagreement in the extent and timing of the warm nose. Precipitation may start as snow and change to freezing rain later Thursday night or Friday morning, then switch to rain as surface temperatures increase later Friday morning. For now have gone middle of the road with consensus guidance for that warm nose, which gives some freezing rain and snow snow over the eastern half of the CWA (surface temperatures are currently forecast to be a bit too warm for freezing rain over the western half, but that will need to be fine tuned). While still a bit far out, it is helpful to look as some ensemble spread in amounts for a general overview.

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Finally, some winter style weather!

Taney County, MO – It was looking like area residents in southwest Missouri might finally see some winter-styled action after enjoying temperatures that were pretty far above the normal, for this time of year! As it now stands, sometime on Friday, January the 10th, a strong frontal system will move into our area in conjunction with a robust up-welling of moist air from the gulf. The heaviest rainfall should occur from Friday afternoon on through the evening hours. At this time, the front will likely shift from west to east thereby crossing the country-wide area. As it passes on through. during the late evening hours, cold air will begin to push its way on the backside. Then, perhaps as we get into the wee hours of Saturday and on into the day, some southwest Missouri residents may expect potentially all forms of wintry precipitation; from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to grapnel and then to snow. Just who gets what will depend on where you happen to be standing, but I'd wager that most of Taney County will experience the event as one of moderate rain with a transition to some light snow late Saturday evening. Those living up further north by Springfield or off to the east by West Plains will likely get their own mix.

The real concern will be in just how much water falls where! With amounts ranging from perhaps a half inch to over four inches, everyone in flood prone areas needs to hang close to their weather radios or to televised media outlets throughout the day on Saturday. [www.taneyweather.com]

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Forecast for first week in December 2019!

Click to enlarge
Forsyth MO. - Wow! The first seven days in December are looking pretty good, considering the time of year!

Sunday looked to be somewhat windy as cold as we got the backside of an upper level low pressure system.

Monday and Tuesday were looking to be a bit raw in the temperature department with winds out of the north. Tuesday, however with see things warms a bit later in the day!

Wednesday was looking good! Possibly the pick of the litter!

A quick moving system will push across the southern plains into the mid and low Mississippi valley regions Thursday into Friday and will bring the next chance of precipitation to the area. Right now it looks like mostly rain showers for the area with the better instability for thunderstorms remaining to the south and colder air for winter precipitation to the north.

The Saturday, to start the weekend is also looking quiet with fairly normal temps!

Average temperature clothing protocols!

One simple tool I like to use when planning on what to wear involves the average temperature that is forecast for any one day. Averages are good for me to use in the sense that they can help me on what type of attire to consider wearing on any given day. For me there are five ranges to consider:

Average temperature range

Greater than 80F - Stay inside, it's too hot! Crank the AC!
70 - 80F - Shirtsleeves only type of weather
50-70F - Light Jackets in the afte3rnoon and evenings
40-50F - Jacket or a multi layered number of layers needed all the time
Less than 40F - Stay inside and hug a heater!

Liberty Utilities, a reall winner!

Forsyth MO. - While I'm not one to complain very often, after experiencing two power outages in 24 hours (both due to small area storms), I find myself getting more and more pissed off.

The outages were both brief, lasting less than a minute, but were sufficient to mess up some electronics I have running all the time. And, I was beginning to wonder if Canadian owned Liberty Utilities were really aware of what century they were in? Certainly not the 21st!

I've seen a trend, over the past year, of this company having a difficult time of servicing it's customers in a consistent manner. And, I was now wondering how well Taney County would fare when a really big storm system hit over the coming winter season?

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

I guess we could use the rainfall, but...

Forsyth Mo. - As we close out the month of November 2019, one observation I can make would be that the excess rainfall could be problematic for three area reservoirs, aka Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals! Thanksgiving Day was to see a series of rounds of rainfall that could bring anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of precipitation that would place that month over the norm once again.

The question, then becomes whether or not enough water can be released via the Bull Shoals dam located in Arkansas prior to the typical spring rains we will get come next spring?

Thursday, November 14, 2019

A November 2019 look at Tri-Lake water levels!

Forsyth Mo. - As of mid November, 2019, water levels at all three reservoirs remained at uncomfortably high levels. And, I was wondering why that was happening?

Rainfall vs the historical averages from September thru mid November was as follows;

Assuming that the entire area gets 'normal' rainfall through the end of the month, one can see that we were only a little over four inches above normal. Yet, the lake levels remained way above normal levels!