Sunday, June 25, 2017

Taney County work week 4 including the Fourth of July!


Showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger into Monday due to a mid level front that becomes established across southern Missouri. Computer model runs, however, don't generate much instability, therefore, severe storms are not expected.

From Tuesday through Thursday night, other than an outside shot of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly warm and dry conditions are expected through the mid week period. Look for the mercury to climb back towards the upper eighty degree mark!

As the work week goes on a weak zonal front will evolve, and eventually re-positions to the southwest toward the weekend. Not only will temperatures warm a few degrees, shower and thunderstorm chances increase.


As a matter of fact, medium range models bring a complex of storms through southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be a possibility, along with a potential severe risk. Shear will be modest, although instability will be sufficient for organized storms as moisture depth increases.

The fourth of July weekend will have the potential for being somewhat active across southern Missouri. Anyone that has plans for participating in outdoor activities should closely monitor later forecasts regarding potential thunderstorm activity for that weekend.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Taney County Work week three in June!


A cooler air mass will spread into the area Monday behind the front that went through on Sunday. Highs will warm into the upper 70's to the lower 80's on Monday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60's occurring during the evening hours.


Warmer conditions will then return Tuesday through the rest of the week as highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's occur each afternoon.


The warming trend will linger into Wednesday as highs reach the upper 80's to low 90's and heat index values warm into the low to mid 90s. Not expecting much in the way of rain chances until about the Thursday time frame.


Heading into Thursday, PW (Precipitable Water) values of 1.5 to around 2.0 inches will be possible along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor, with the higher amounts across south central MO. It looks as if models are keeping the track slightly further to the southeast of the area than last nights model runs. Our thunderstorm chances start on Thursday, but will mainly be over the eastern Ozarks initially as energy from around the tropical system moves into Arkansas and south central MO.


On Friday, a southward moving front will push into the area and offer the best chance at showers and thunderstorms, with the tropical low pushing into the boot heel and quickly into the TN valley. Precipitation may shut off pretty quickly on Friday evening in the wake of the low and front.

Models are showing some differences heading into the weekend. GFS wants to keep things dry behind the front, while ECMWF brings another wave of energy and precipitation into the area Saturday night into Sunday. Will keep the low end pops going through the weekend.
Going with cooler than normal temperatures from the weekend into the early part of next week behind the front with a cooler air mass moving into the region.

Precipitable Water - A measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb.

Sunday, June 11, 2017

June week 2ish weather for Taney County!


Monday will be even warmer as 850mb temps rise to 20C. Most locations along and north of I-44 will reach 90 with a few low 90s possible. With 700mb temps between 10-14C, it will be hard to get
precip, none the less clouds. The exception will be across far south central Missouri (Oregon county) where an isolated shower or storm is possible since the cap will be a tad weaker there.


A strong upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains Tuesday with a trailing front into Kansas and Oklahoma. Areas across the eastern Ozarks may see an afternoon shower or storm however confidence is not high in this given warm mid level temps and little forcing available. With 850mb temps around 20-21C, expect highs around 90 again. Showers and storms will fire in KS and OK Tues evening as shortwave energy approaches. Most or all of this activity will stay west of the area given increasing convective inhibition during the Overnight hours.


Frontal boundary pushes closer Wednesday afternoon and this may be our best shot at showers and storms given that the air mass will likely be pretty unstable. Wind shear looks less than 30kts however instability will be high therefore will need to monitor for stronger storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also looks warm with highs around either side of 90.


Frontal boundary then looks to become diffuse or go stationary across the area from Thursday into the early part of the weekend. A zonal mid level pattern will exist during this time. This signal would suggest several chances for showers and storms during this time frame. Otherwise temps look to remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heat index values this week will likely reach the middle to potentially upper 90s across portions of the area with the areas north and west of Interstate 44 into the Osage Plains favored. While this is not uncommon by any means, it will be the warmest it has "felt" so far this calendar year.

Sunday, June 4, 2017

June work week one for Taney County!


It was beginning to feel a bit like summer, over the weekend, what with the lazy clouds and pop up shower chances. That trend will continue through Sunday, June the 4th and on into the coming work week.... a pretty boring stretch weather wise!


Most of the area should stay dry on Monday, though a couple of showers/storms are possible through early afternoon across the Missouri/Arkansas state line. Cloud cover will clear as the day goes on, with lower dew points building into the area by afternoon and evening.


Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look like very nice days, with highs both days in the upper 70s to around 80, and lows in the 50s.


Upper ridging will begin to build back into the area Thursday into the weekend. There will be chance for thunderstorms late in the workweek as a couple of shortwaves move through the area, though
the overall setup doesn't look terribly impressive. Temperatures look to return to the mid 80s by the end of the workweek into next weekend.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Work week 4 for Taney County!


Some relief is on the way as a surface high will remain in control of the region's weather through Memorial Day with temperatures around 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overall, Monday looks to be a great day for outdoor activities.


The upper level flow for Tuesday looks to be northwesterly. This is in response to a ridge that builds just east of the Rockies. Several reinforcing surface highs will slide out of Canada and across the Plains which should help to keep rain chances limited. A persistent cut-off upper low over the Great Lakes may swing pieces of energy through the upper level flow and bring slight chances for showers and storms between the surface highs in the form of weak cold fronts. None of this activity looks severe at this time.


As we head into this afternoon and early this evening, low level convergence and temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s will likely initiate more scattered thunderstorms from northeastern Kansas into central Missouri. We may then see widely scattered thunderstorm activity begin to shift towards the U.S. 60 corridor in the evening as cold pools become established and that
low level jet begins to redevelop.

The setup for large hail looks good today given steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate deep layer shear, and good CAPE/speed shear in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 Celsius layer). Inspection of
forecast soundings also indicates quite a few matches for large hail with the SARS Sounding Analogue System. With support from indices such as the Large Hail Parameter, we will include a mention of ping pong ball sized hail in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Given steep low level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases, damaging straight line winds also appear possible in areas where cold pools conglomerate and we get bowing segments. At this time,
it appears that the greatest threat for severe storms this afternoon and this evening will be west of U.S. 65 and north of U.S. 60.


Remnants of that MCS may then persist across portions of the central and eastern Missouri Ozarks Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances in the afternoon will then be dictated by convective outflow from morning storms and where that low level convergence zone ends up. Thursday night and early Friday then look fairly dry at this point.


Friday night into Sunday night, an upper level trough will dive south towards and into the region sending a front through the area. This will result in better widespread shower/storm chances across the region as better lift will occur.


Behind the system surface high pressure and dry conditions will build over the area Sunday into early next week as highs warm into the 70s each afternoon during this time....

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Taney County work week #3 for May!


A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected over the CONUS with a long wave trough over the Plains and Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.


The upper level long wave trough axis passes through the day Wednesday. Clouds, maybe some light precipitation will linger into Wed, but hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.


Thursday looks dry again with surface high pressure. In general there is decent agreement with global models of the pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching system.


Surface low pressure moving east over the plains, an approaching upper level trough, a 30 mph low level jet nosing into the region, surface dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s, CAPE values in
excess of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates will all contribute to the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon and into this evening.

The amount of instability and expected updraft strengths are conducive to very large to giant hail production. Current thoughts are for baseball size or larger hail with the strongest storms.
Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The convection early this morning will likely leave boundaries across the area, which will potentially act to enhance storms and rotation this afternoon. Another concern would be the development of a significant cold pool with this system. It would not be out of the question that at some point this system develops a derecho-like nature (squall line with widespread wind damage potential) that would move across the region, taking advantage of the instability in place across the area today. Additionally, 0-3 km bulk shear vectors orientated towards the east at 30-40 knots would support mesovortex tornado potential with any portions of the line bowing towards the east.

The Moderate Risk area from SPC was expanded to the west this morning and now includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas through tonight.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Taney County MO Wx for work week #3!


Warmer conditions will occur as highs in the 80's will occur each afternoon from Sunday to Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days as highs in the middle to possibly upper 80s occur.

Southerly winds will also increase Sunday into mid week and could see gust up to 30 mph during the afternoon each day especially across the southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.


A more activity weather pattern will setup during the middle of the week into next week. An upper level trough will slide south across the west coast today and Monday then kick east on Tuesday
pushing into the Plains by Wednesday. This will push the ridge off to the east and allow the front to sag to the southeast into the area Tuesday night into Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as the better upper level support will remain west and north of the area with the upper level trough path. With the timing expected to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and that instability will be on the weak side should help to limit the overall severe risk Wednesday.

An upper level low will move onto the west coast early this week and dig to the southeast into the Middle of the week. Medium range models then differ on how the the upper levels behaves regarding track and timing to the east after it digs into the southeastern U.S. Therefore, there remains uncertainty on the exact details for the end of the week into next week. What is known is that the low will be to the west and will be able to pull better gulf moisture north ahead of it helping to increase instability across the area. As the low moves to the east, showers and storms will develop and we could see a couple rounds depending on the exact track of the system. There could be the potential for severe weather but when and where we be dependent on the track/timing of the the system and also a flooding risk given the very wet spring so far but there is a lot of uncertainty with when and where. We will likely need to wait for the low to make it on to the west coast and be sampled by the upper air network to get a better handle on the exact track and timing.

Highs around 80 will occur Wednesday and Thursday, then slightly cooler conditions will build over the region as highs in the 70s are expected Friday into the weekend.


A rather wet start to the weekend.


Clouds to beging this day and sun to end it. Look for improving conditions. Some chances for showers and some scattered storms are expected, but we are not looking at high impact weather during this period.


 Looks quiet/dry with surface high pressure moving into MO.