Monday, October 9, 2017

Taney County weather Oct 9 thru Oct 14!

MONDAY


It was a mild and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 60s under clear skies and light winds. These quiet conditions will continue today as readings warm into the 80s' this afternoon.

By this evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma and south central Kansas. A moisture tongue and instability axis will set up in this area, interacting with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Severe storms are becoming likely west of the Ozarks, however, we're less confident that sufficient instability will be present for severe storms on the Missouri side.

As of now we will continue mentioning the risk for 50 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail west of Springfield.

TUESDAY

Showers and thunderstorms will translate eastward into Tuesday as a large upper level system swings overhead. This precipitation comes to an end by Tuesday night. Tuesday night lows will fall into the 40's as a cool rush of Canadian air spreads in.

This would be our first fall type cool air.



WEDNESDAY - WEEKEND

Temps on Wednesday will struggle to warm out of the 60's with 40's again Wednesday night.

The extended period of dry weather will continue through Saturday evening. Warmer air will spread in as southerly breezes return.

Models have sped up our next system over the weekend as a cold front moves in Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like this feature will bring a period of showers and thunderstorms. www.taneyweather.com

Friday, October 6, 2017

TS Nate has potential to slam into New Orleans!

The mayor of New Orleans late Thursday declared a state of emergency for the city ahead of Tropical Storm Nate, which has already been blamed for 22 deaths in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

The city’s mayor Mitch Landrieu said residents who live outside the city’s levee system or in low-lying areas should move to higher ground.

“There is no need to panic,” he tweeted. “Be ready and prepare. Get a plan. Prepare to protect your personal property.”

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Taney County Wx - October week one!

MONDAY
Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through midweek as those southeasterly winds persist. The best moisture advection will actually occur across the southern and then central Plains as a surface ridge axis remains planted across the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, a northeast to southwest oriented frontal boundary will become established from the western Great Lakes into the Corn Belt and then southern Plains from Monday night into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should develop to our northwest along that front and in closer vicinity to short wave energy tracking northeast within the southwesterly flow aloft. [Yawn...]

TUESDAY

Models all have showers/thunder breaking out across the area this morning. PW values will significantly increase across the forecast area today with most locations rising to around 1.6 to 1.9 in. The cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms will hold down warming today into the mid 70's to around 80. Upper level energy over the northern plains will shift east along the U.S. Canada border
tonight and will help to flatten out the ridge in the eastern U.S. This will help to set up the best moisture axis in a southwest to northeast fashion with the highest PW values setting up over our
northwestern CWA. The best chances of rain will be over our northwestern CWA tonight. Lows tonight will be quite mild in the low to mid 60's. [Me picking up some interest]...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY

The large scale pattern then becomes somewhat interesting as we head into the Wednesday through Thursday night time frame. Models are in good agreement that we will see a confluent mid and
upper level flow develop from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will be supportive of that front leaning over and becoming west to east oriented somewhere
across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. This setup can be a heavy rain producer. We will keep close tabs on this potential. The good news is that we need the rainfall. Thus, we could stand to pick up a few inches (or even more) without any worries of excessive runoff.

FRIDAY....

Global models then become divergent as we get into late this week. There is some loose consensus that the convergent flow will break down and an upper level trough will eject out of the western United States. However, impacts on sensible weather are a tough call out that far.

In term of temperatures, we will see a downward trend throughout the work week as clouds and precipitation become bigger players. The eventual position of that front will also come into play from
mid to late week.

SATURDAY

Widespread light rainfall over the entire area during the day, but by Saturday evening, all precipitation will have shifted east of the Ozarks, bringing a very pleasant evening for the region. Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the low to mid 50's.

 SUNDAY

Southwest flow aloft quickly re-establishes itself on Sunday bringing surface temperatures back into the 80s. Dew points in the 50's and low 60's will make conditions feel less humid than what we've experienced over the past couple weeks. See more at www.taneyweather.com!

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Last weather work week for September 2017 in Taney County!

MONDAY
The deep trough over the western U.S. will slowly creep eastward on Monday and Tuesday. Upper level heights over the area may be again a tad lower which means high temperatures only in the middle 80's for Monday. Model guidance suggest a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm over the Central Missouri area Monday afternoon and evening. (Think sluggish weather and you'd probable be spot on)! Yawn...

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY

Computer model guidance shows a better chance for scattered showers and storms over the western area on Tuesday...mainly west of Highway 65 ahead of that oh so slow moving cold front. No severe weather is expected as significant lifting will not be around. The front will slowly move through the area on Wednesday. Try and picture molasses on a winter morning moving downhill. There will be additional chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms before the rain chances dry up. We do not expect every location to see rainfall through midweek or much rainfall if any falls. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side. So, the drought begun last month will carry forward....

DA WEEKEND

Taney County MO - Finally, the heat that's been hanging over our heads for over a week will be lifting out. Cooler weather, courtesy of the aforementioned front, will begin moving in Wednesday and on through the rest of the last week of the month! We can then expect more seasonable temperatures along with dry weather to persist on through the weekend. Then, as a bonus, we may see some rainfall come Monday, October the 2nd! In the meantime, the lack of any significant rainfall for the past thirty days will mean more trees turning color just a tad early on...

Monday, September 18, 2017

Taney County Work Week 3!

MONDAY

For Monday, the best rain chances look to be from southeast Kansas into central Missouri (Taney County will once again miss the boat), with lesser amounts as you you head south. Given clouds and rainfall potential instability looks rather meager for any severe weather threat at this time. Highs will be warmest along the Arkansas border with readings in the middle 80's, tapering off to the middle 70's in central Missouri.

For Monday night, low level jet re-establishes itself across Kansas, with the jet then nosing into northeast Kansas late. Storms will be possible again in the vicinity of the jet across mainly Kansas and into northern Missouri. However, cannot rule out some isolated activity further south and east of the area in broad warm advection regime. Will keep lower end probabilities going given flow pattern. Lows will drop into the middle 60's.

TUESDAY

Vigorous trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, while zonal to slightly southwesterly flow continues across the local area. With ample sunshine could see some isolated showers/storms develop, which should diminish by Tuesday night. Pressure gradient tightens and will likely see breezy and warm conditions, with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 80's.



WEDNESDAY

For Wednesday through Sunday, highly amplified pattern will persist across the conus with a long wave trough across the west and strong ridging east. The forecast area will be between these two system, with more influence from the ridge. At this point it looks sadly like mainly a dry pattern for the most part, with most of the widespread precipitation chances remaining well to our west. However we will be on the edge of the deeper southwesterly flow so cannot rule out precipitation chances from time to time. Temperatures look to remain above normal through the period with the warmest days looking to be Wednesday and Thursday.

FRIDAY - WEEKEND

The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.
Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.
 www.taneyweather.com

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Taney County week three in 2017!

I decided to skip the weather for the second week of September as it was too boring for words.

MONDAY - THURSDAY

After the potential for some rain showers over the weekend, courtesy of a front that will try and push south into the central Plains and northern Missouri, things may then warm up a bit...

The GFS has come in with a more amplified southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. Versus previous runs. The GFS five wave charts also support the more amplified pattern. Even the ECMWF model is trending this way. We may therefore hang onto the above normal temperatures along with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. See more at www.taneyweather.com!

FRIDAY - WEEKEND

The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.
Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

Monday, September 4, 2017

Taney County MO September work week one!

After a warm and windy Labor Day, a cold front will be through the entire area by Tuesday morning. We expect post frontal showers to be possible for the first half of the day. Continued gusty north winds will usher in much cooler air and temps may actually fall throughout the day into the low 70's. Skies should then clear during the afternoon and evening.

High pressure moves over the area Wednesday and Thursday. High temps both days will struggle to reach 70 with lows in the mid to upper 40s in most locations. Northwest flow will continue through
the rest of the week. High temps late week into the weekend look below average with no precipitation chances. See more at www.Taneyweather.com!