Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Mid October 2018 average temperature trend continues!

When it comes to the winter weather forecast for the 2018-2019 season, the NOAA has reported that there is a 70% chance that we will have an El NiƱo winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the United States. Well, that the official forecast at this point in time!

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Mid October averages to steer more towards normal!

Using nothing less than state of the art graphics, I put together a mid October sort of forecast for what I think will be the average temps across southwest Missouri. For this model, I colored in zones of hot, nice, cool, cold and frigid average temps. (I feel that the average temperature for any given day gives one the feel of that day). And, as can be seen, we are in for a more 'normal' weather period than what we experienced in 2017, at least for the mid portion of the month. As the the normal average works out to be 57 degrees (Hi 70 Lo 44), we will  likely be running just a bit below that figure, through about the 22nd of the month.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Why I'm all in for Global Warming!

Over the past many years, I've maintained a small weather reporting station (Davis Weather Monitor II), that despite its age, has been recording fairly accurately. Below, for instance, is a graph of the last five August's low temperature averages (note that 2015 was missing).

Many climatologists seem to agree that the best test of Global Warming would be to watch and see how well the atmosphere cools each day. Therefore, they watch the average lows to get a feel for what's going on over time. The graph above shows an average increase of 3 degrees for that '6' year span. A trend that I've seen played out again and again for every month and over many years.

So, does that indicate that things are getting warmer for Mother Earth? You betcha. As far as I'm concerned the results are in and we all will be seeing the effects of warming weather here where I live in southwest Missouri!

Here's the deal. Rather than worry about it, I actually am looking forward to a January where we will be able to have palm trees in my neighborhood! Yes, I like the increased heat! Now, does that make me some kind of nut? Perhaps, but as I have only a relatively short span of time left on earth - well that's all I really care about. You see, one second after I'm dead, I won't give a damn, will I? And anyway according to the article Sperm Zero, we're all going to be extinct by about 2046...

Friday, August 31, 2018

After a very hot summer 2018, what about the coming winter?

SW MO - The summer of 2018 was on the wane on the last day of August, and in true fashion, it was warm at 90 degrees! Thus, in only about twenty more days, we will all bid adieu to what was one of the hottest summers on record for the Midwest. Fall will arrive promptly on Saturday, September the 22nd and I'd like to think that many of us just might sigh with some relief! Hot and humid days spent indoors next to the AC will soon be replaced by much more livable, shorter and cooler days! A good time will be had by all! And, then, winter will inevitably arrive on the 21st of December.... Arrg!

So, what can we expect on the days following the shortest day of the year? Well, if you believe in the Farmer's Almanac, the signals were a bit mixed this time around. Here's a quote from Farmers' Almanac Editor and Philom Peter Geiger. "Contrary to some stories floating around on the internet, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing towards a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter.” He then went on to state, "We stand by our forecast and formula, which accurately predicted most of the winter storms last year as well as this summer's steamy, hot conditions." Hmmm.

But what about global warming and all that? That is a good question. However, whenever you have a planet with seven and a half billion souls, many of who live by burning wood and coal and when you have an extremely complex climate with melting poles adding tons of fresh water to salty oceans....

The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see what will be.....

Monday, July 9, 2018

Summer heat to really set in!

SW MO. – By mid week on July 11, the southwest Missouri area will be getting a good dose of summer time heat with highs working their way into the mid nineties and then hanging out there for a while. With heat advisories likely, the only hope for any relief will be popup styled storms that will likely be few and far between.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

On the early heat of the season for 2018!

Forsyth MO. - It was just half past 10AM on June 27, 2018 and already the outdoors temperature hung momentarily at 85 before going upwards! Adding insult to injury, the humidity was no slouch either, coming in at 62%! Area-wide, the National Weather Service had issued a heat advisory with planned readings in excess of 100 degrees by the following day. As a weather watcher of many years, I was growing a bit concerned.

My feelings were based partly on science and partly on intuition. June was coming in far above normal! (Highs were 5 degrees above normal and lows 8). When averaged, that was 6.5 degrees above the 30 year average... (And, that trend of it being warmer than normal has been going on for some time now). So, what's that mean for the coming month of July. Well, since the normal high and low for that month was 89/65 (Fahrenheit), then after applying an average 6.5 increase, you'd get 95.5 and 71.5 degrees respectively! Note that the thing about averages is that the actual temps will tend to wander around that average, with some days being higher while others could be much lower on any given day. So, while we might get a rainy day here and there that might help, we'd also get a lot of days that would see readings well above 100 degrees! [Wait! Is that what I'm forecasting for July?] No. I'm just prognosticating based on trends I've observed. It's also possible that July will turn out colder than normal, but I'm wouldn't bet the bank on that happening.

Another consideration for a really hot July would be the increased severity of any storms that might ride through an area on a frontal system or merely popup in the late afternoon. (The warmer and the moister the air packet, the faster and higher it will rise in the atmosphere). Such explosive potential is part of what can give rise to very large hail streaks, gustnadoes and the like. Oh, yes and lightening can also increase in intensity too! All in all, not a very fun scenario for those who spend time outdoors. At right, on an otherwise clear day, a couple of short-lived indicators for hail showed up at about 11AM in the morning!

The bottom line will be for everyone to be weather aware when out and about this summer. A weather radio would be a good thing to have, especially if you like to go boating.

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Sunday, June 24, could be interesting weather wise!

Taney County MO. - After a nice and quiet Saturday, the next day - Sunday, June 24 could prove to be anything but as the weather computers are forecasting a fast moving and energy laden storm system swooping out of Kansas into southwest Missouri early Sunday morning!

Depending on a number of factors, some unfortunate locations could see straight line winds, large hail and even tornadoes, as the frontal system sweeps through the region!