Thursday, November 14, 2019

A November 2019 look at Tri-Lake water levels!

Forsyth Mo. - As of mid November, 2019, water levels at all three reservoirs remained at uncomfortably high levels. And, I was wondering why that was happening?

Rainfall vs the historical averages from September thru mid November was as follows;


Assuming that the entire area gets 'normal' rainfall through the end of the month, one can see that we were only a little over four inches above normal. Yet, the lake levels remained way above normal levels!

Friday, November 1, 2019

November 2018 was not nice!

Forsyth Mo. Did November have much to recommend in 2018, actually no. It was colder than normal on many days, as the graphic of the daily average temperatures below shows.


Thursday, October 31, 2019

October 2019 was pretty near normal!

Forsyth MO. - Even as I did not wait for the 31st reading, the trend line for the month showing a drop of 21°F was pretty much set in stone. That line was pretty close to the 70/44 spread that is the 30 year historical average for neighboring West Plains. My area showed a 69/49 spread which also reflected the typically higher reading seen during the nighttime hours.

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Things could become a bit dicy toards the end of Nov 2019!

NWS, Springfield MO - An upper level trough will start to move east across the central Plains on Wednesday then through the area on Thursday. Lift will continue to occur ahead of the system resulting in periods of rain occurring across the area at times on Wednesday. The warm nose will remain in place through the day on Wednesday as temperatures remain above freezing. Highs will top out in the upper 30's to the upper 40's across the area Wednesday with the warmest readings across south central Missouri.

As the upper level trough starts to move into the area, surface temperatures will start to drop from northwest to southeast Wednesday evening and night. A dry slot will move into the area associated with the upper level trough. Drizzle will occur across the area as the dry slot will limit cloud ice. Temperatures will drop to or just below the freezing mark as lift and low level moisture remain in place Wednesday evening and night. This will result in a window for some freezing drizzle to occur mainly across the northern and western parts of the forecast area. Ground temperatures are still warm so not expecting a lot of impacts, but a light glaze of ice could be possible on elevated surfaces so take care when crossing bridges. As the upper level trough moves through the area mid level moisture will wrap into the area as mid level temperatures cool. This will allow for some light snow to occur late Wednesday night into Thursday before the precipitation comes to an end from west to east on Thursday. Minor if any accumulations and no real impacts are expected.

Widespread rainfall will occur across the area with generally 1 to 1 1/2" of rainfall expected for the entire event. Portions of south central Missouri may see closer to 2". Rates are not expected to be overly heavy at any given time, but widespread to moderate rainfall will occur for an extended period starting late this afternoon into Wednesday night. This may lead to the potential for some localized minor flooding as this widespread rainfall occurs.

Behind the system surface high pressure and a colder air mass will move over the area. Lows in the mid to upper 20's are expected Wednesday night with highs only warming into the 30's on Thursday. Lows Thursday night into Friday will drop into the low to middle 20's. Temperatures will then warm back into the 40's and 50's for highs Friday into the weekend.

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Four months of weather. Page 4.

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Four months of weather. Page 3.

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Saturday, October 26, 2019

Four months of weather. Page 2.

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