Sunday, August 20, 2017

While there be a travel crisis on August 21?

Beginning in the morning hours on the East Coast and then running for for some time afterwards, millions of people all across the nation will have a chance to experience a full eclipse of the sun! This is something that hasn't happened of such extent in the US for over ninety years, and so, is a very rare event. Millions of dollars have been spent on viewing glasses and hotel reservations. The only big question that remains will be one of cloud cover.... [Begin the background music for Jaws]

Picture for yourself among millions of other cars on the road that day, all full of eager solar eclipse viewers vying for  a good patch of clear sky. The computer generated map (above) of clouds for August the 21st paint a somewhat troublesome picture for parts of the US along the path of totality. My home state of Missouri looks to be especially problematic and I can just imagine the chaos as tens of thousands of cars all scramble in a mad dash to catch was will be about a two minute event. And to make things even more interesting, it'll be getting rather dark for them too!

Monday, August 7, 2017

August 21, 2017 weather for the eclipse of the sun!

Latest computer generated cloud forecast!
Forsyth MO - Slowly but with gaining momentum, people all over are talking about the coming solar eclipse where millions will have a chance to experience totality. And sure, even though the 'event' last for just a span of minutes, that won't stop people from driving long distances to experience this rare solar phenomena.

Where, I reside in Forsyth Missouri in Taney County, we will get some bang for the buck as the sun will become up to 90% obscured sometime around 11:43 AM'ish on an otherwise plain Jane Monday in August. And while I am retired and could easily drive a hundred or so miles to catch a complete eclipse, I've chosen to content myself with what I could see from my current location. To that end, I purchased a 5-Pack Premium ISO and CE Certified Lunt Solar Eclipse Glasses that cost about thirteen dollars. I plan to pass out the other 4 to a friend so that she and her kids can also enjoy the fun.

But, as it often the case, there is a potential fly in the cosmic ointment! If the morning of the event happens to be cloudy or even hazy, this whole deal could be a bust. To that end, I will be selecting four sites that could be reached by car when given a day or so notice. The map, at right, shows some locales that will experience a complete eclipse. I have chosen the following cities that I will keep track of in the days leading up to the event on the 21st. They are; Sedalia, Jefferson City, Columbia and Cuba. All of which lie in Missouri and are reachable by automobiles. The best location of the bunch would be Columbia as it lies smack dab in the center of the swath of totality! I will be update the expected cloud coverage (or hopefully lack of it) beginning a week before the event on August the 14th. My updates will be posted at

When planning to view the eclipse, being flexible and ready to move out to a better and clearer sky may be a plus. NASA has an interactive map that can serve as an aid to planning locations and to knowing exact times that the eclipse will begin and end.... Also, note that the next time an event on this scale will not occur until 2024 & 2045... The one in 2024 will be within easy driving distance from places like Branson and Forsyth!
April 8, 2024 - See article
August 12,2045

Latest August 21 Eclipse Update: 
During the window between noon and 2 pm, we expect the majority of the local area to see partly cloudy skies with some occasional high cirrus clouds and some cumulus clouds developing by midday or early afternoon. At the time of the peak of the eclipse, we have about a 10 to 20 percent chance of a pop up shower or storm. Temperatures will top out around the lower 90s today but during the eclipse we may see a brief drop or lag in temperature climb. We wouldn't be surprised to see some weather stations across central Missouri and eastern Ozarks drop several degrees by 1 pm.

Make sure to use only approved viewing equipment - Click here for a list!

See also:

Eclipse Phenomena: What to Watch For

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Notes on August 2016 vs 2017

 As months go, August 2016 was pretty average. We had 15 days that were above the average temperatures of 89ºF. With a combine average of 79.3ºF versus a 30 year historical average of 76.5ºF, it was easy to see that those warmer nighttime temperatures were something to be concerned about. (After all, the only true measurement of Global warming comes from just how low the temps drop during the nighttime)! That said, one must remember that my weather station is just one single dot of data and really did not mean much when data from all over the world is looked at...
Rainfall, at 2.01 inches was considerably behind the 'normal average' of 3.41 inches. That merely reflected the mini drought we were in for the entire year. Something that had since been corrected with the flooding rains of April and May of 2017! As of August 2017, we were still about 4 inches ahead of the average. That was the good news, the bad news is that all the other months, thus far, had fallen short of the average for rainfall.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Taney County Weather Aug 6 to the 12th!


Starting later on Friday, August the 5th, the next 48 hours looks to be a rather wet period with several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall expected.

Periods of heavy rain and storms will be ongoing through the day Sunday and through early Monday morning as a very slow moving frontal boundary drifts to the southeast into northern Arkansas. This will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. This will be especially true for storms that train over the same areas along the slow moving front. This period looks to have the highest potential for flooding rains to occur with 2 to 4 inches currently forecast by the majority of the models.


Monday afternoon through the majority of Wednesday looks more quiet with surface high pressure moving over the area behind the weekend storm system. This will be a needed break as models bring another system with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to the area for the later half of the week. Depending on the model you look at the rain could begin again as early as late Wednesday night to Thursday morning and continue into next weekend.

The one silver lining with the forecast is the unseasonably cool temperatures that are expected through next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to only climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's each day.


A front will pass south through the Ozarks on Friday as the stronger short wave energy dives across the southern Great Lakes. The potential for showers and storms will continue into Friday, especially across southern Missouri.


The big question then remains how far south of the area that front will get from this weekend into early next week. The west- northwest flow aloft will likely persist through the entire period. At this time, it still appears that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Areas of central Missouri may see little in the way of precipitation this weekend.

Global models and ensembles continue to indicate that the heaviest swath of rainfall may remain just to the west and south of the Missouri Ozarks from south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is still decent consensus for a solid 3-6" of rainfall through the weekend across that area. Areas of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri are in line to get more in the 1-3" range, with the highest amounts near the Oklahoma border.

There are no plans for any kind of Flash Flood Watch at this time with the best signal for excessive rainfall remaining to our west and south. However, we will continue to monitor the situation closely as a shift to the northeast with the heavy rainfall axis may warrant a threat for flooding across portions of the area.

Our streak of below normal temperatures will continue through at least the middle of next week.

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Taney County weather for first week of August 2017!


Weather conditions ideal for outdoor activities are expected through the rest of the weekend and well into next work week.

A Canadian high pressure system will provide a continuous feed of Great Lakes air into the Ozarks Region. This will bring cooler temperatures with comfortable humidity levels on a daily basis. Afternoon highs will warm into the middle 80s from Sunday through Thursday afternoon.

The next chances for precipitation will occur Wednesday through Friday. Although, there doesn't appear to be a signal for widespread rainfall at this time. Therefore, some locations could remain dry into the second week of August.

Monday, July 24, 2017

Weather forecasts for last workweek of July 2017!

MONDAY, July 24, 2017

A few isolated showers/storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern Missouri, generally south of an Anderson, to Springfield to a Salem Missouri line. Coverage in any activity that can develop will be limited and overall most locations should remain dry. Any locations that are effected by any isolated activity should only be so briefly as this activity will be short lived in nature.


Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60's to the lower 70's. An upper level ridge will slowly nudge east across the Plains on Tuesday. Highs will be similar to those today but maybe a degree or two warmer. Moisture will be slow to return so heat index values should again be in the middle to upper 90's Tuesday afternoon.


The ridge will build into the region on Wednesday allowing temperatures in the middle to upper 90's to return. Moisture will also increase allowing heat index values between 100 and 105 to return. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the area on Wednesday.


An upper level shortwave trough will then dive south and push the ridge back to the west Thursday into Friday. A front will slide south through the area during this time and could spark some scattered showers/storms across the area. This may be very similar to the front that moved through the area over the weekend with not widespread coverage in rain occur, being more hit and miss in nature.


Another upper level trough will dive south through the area reinforcing the ridge remain to the west of area. Could be some spotty convection, but again not looking at widespread rain or a washout by any means. This will result in cooler conditions Friday into Monday as highs in the 80's and lows in the lower to middle 60's are expected each day.

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Work week #3 in Taney County MO!

It's a HEAT WAVE!! A high pressure dome will edge closer to the area each day this week. This will shut off any precipitation potential and send high temps into the middle to upper 90's. Have trended temps up a degree or two given such a strong mid level high which looks to come right over us on Thursday and Friday, thus these two days will be the hottest.

Heat indicies will range from 100-110 this week with the highest heat indices Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that Heat Advisories will be needed by mid week. Those with heat sensitives, outdoor workers and those without air conditioning will need to prepare for the heat this week. No precipitation is expected this week given this regime.