Saturday, June 23, 2018

Sunday, June 24, could be interesting weather wise!

Taney County MO. - After a nice and quiet Saturday, the next day - Sunday, June 24 could prove to be anything but as the weather computers are forecasting a fast moving and energy laden storm system swooping out of Kansas into southwest Missouri early Sunday morning!

Depending on a number of factors, some unfortunate locations could see straight line winds, large hail and even tornadoes, as the frontal system sweeps through the region!

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Doppler radar down in Springfield!

Anyone who might drive close to the Springfield Missouri airport may have spotted a tower with a white egg on top of it. That's the National Weather Service's Doppler radar which watches for storms all across southwestern Missouri. The trouble was that the radar went down on the 14th of June due to a storm that caused one of the 'gear joints' break, in the aging 25 year old tower. Repairs were expected to take as long as a week. Thankfully, this coincided with a period that saw few storms in the region.

In this National radar composite above, you can plainly see the gap in coverage circled in black. The other radar sites can be discerned as gray splotches.  Should repairs not finish before a major storm outbreak, the Springfield site will get assistance from other cities to try and help keep everyone from harm. When and until it's functioning again, everyone will need to be especially aware of any popup storms that might come their way!

This was the official notice published by the NWS on June 15:

The WSR-88D Doppler Radar (KSGF) at Springfield, Missouri has experienced a hardware failure and is not operational at this time. Parts have been ordered to repair the radar and National Weather

Service radar technicians will be on site this week to begin repairs. The radar will be restored to normal operation as soon as possible.

So, how long will the site be down? I'm betting it will be back up by Wednesday, June 20..But, then again, I'm an incurable optimist! Note: I did reach out, via email, to the NWS but never received a response back.... At any rate, the amount of time it takes this essential government agency to repair that device will be a good indicator of the health of the NWS!

Friday, June 15, 2018

Is Forsyth Missouri in increased wind and hail peril?

Is tornado alley moving to the east?
Forsyth MO. – In just three years, my home has been subject to three large hail events and two tornadoes! Insurance damage incurred had risen in the the thousands of dollars, leaving some folks wondering what the heck was going on?

It's really no secret that the climate is changing in front of our eyes in 2018. Global temperature averages are on the rise, and as it gets warmer, storms can develop more often with a tendency towards increased violence! That seems to be most definitely the case in my location in southwest Missouri as of late. And anyone who has ventured out in June, has certainly experienced the above average heat!

So, what's the deal? Can we expect storm system to become more numerous and severe in nature. The answer is sort of. In actuality, it isn't so much the storms themselves, as it is their locations that may be changing. And it's possible that the area of the Nation known as tornado alley may be shifting more to the east as other climate factors come into play! Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel has an interesting short video on this subject.

Traditionally, storms move more and more to the north as we enter into the summer months. It will be interesting to see if that pattern holds for the rest of 2018!

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Summer heat already?

Forsyth MO. – With the start of summer still a week away, June 2018 has proven to feel more like July. With 7 out of 14 days topping out at or above ninety degrees, one has to wonder what July and August will look like? Of course, when one brings up the topic of global warming, it's not the daily highs that need to be watched. It's the lows at night that 'could' bode ill for planet Earth. Thus far in June, the Forsyth Missouri area has averaged about six degrees above the 30 year historical average! And, as I've looked back over the prior months and years, the temps have 'most always' been at least two to three degrees warmer than that average, month after month.... year after year...
So, does that really mean anything to us in the short term? Yes, it does but most individuals would rather keep their heads buried in the sand on this issue. What they may not be able to handle, however, it the simple fact that when the nightly temperatures start to hang out in the mid 70's in a consistent manner and over a period of months – Well, the daily highs can then springboard up rather quickly to the nineties and beyond. And often, when you see this form of scalar temperature profile (one that always seems to be headed upward), the storms that tend to develop get even more severe than what we've all grown accustomed to! (In my home location, just this year thus far, we've already had a major hail storm and a tornado!

[Note: Looking back over just the last three years – Two F0 tornadoes and three hail storms that have totaled over seven thousand dollars in damage to me, or more specifically, my insurance company)!] Is the worst yet to come? Stay tuned!

Other than that, please enjoy your summer and let's all hope for a cool spell....

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Taney County Wx work week 1 - 2!


The region will remain in a zone of broad lift in the mid level flow with limited moisture over riding the front across much of the area on Saturday. Model guidance continue to show light moisture as well as forecast soundings show a signal for freezing drizzle with the occasional light freezing rain shower or sleet shower. The main upper level system and support will arrive Saturday evening and night as it moves across the region. This feature will use what limited moisture is available and develop more areas of light freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet. There will be light snow across central Missouri back into eastern Kansas. All the light wintry weather will exit the area from west to east during Sunday morning. We are expecting at least a glaze of ice everywhere with up to a tenth to two tenths of ice possible for areas near I-44 and across southern Missouri. A coating of light sleet or light snow is possible everywhere with the best potential for up to a inch of snow across eastern Kansas into central Missouri.


Sunday will struggle to get much above the freezing mark with the lows dipping back down into the 20's. 


Monday will be a seasonable day with sunshine and quiet weather. A broad west to southwesterly flow will set up for early and mid week with southern winds return by Tuesday. We will see our temps respond nicely back into the 50's by Tuesday and 60's by Wednesday and Thursday!


The weather begins to improve on Tuesday as isentrophic upglide conditions bring in some overrunning warmer and moisture laden air! All that moisture will add to the cloud cover and a few showers, mainly over central and south Missouri would not be counted out!


Spring-like temperatures are still expected Wednesday into Thursday as southerly winds increase. High temperatures will climb into the 60's both days and cannot rule out a few locations reaching 70 degrees on Thursday.


A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night as a broad low amplitude trough transitions eastward across the the northern CONUS. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will with the
frontal passage, especially along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor where moisture quality will be better.


Strong cold air advection will follow the frontal passage on gusty northerly winds late Thursday night into Friday. This may bring a brief transition to light snow before the precipitation ends late
Thursday night into Friday morning. However little if any accumulation is expected.

Forecast certainty decreases this weekend into next week as a more active southwesterly flow evolves in response to a developing upper level trough out west. This will bring milder temperatures
back into the region along with periodic chances of precipitation into the middle of next week.

Saturday, January 27, 2018

Taney County weather going into Feb 2018!


On Sunday, a shortwave trough drops through the flow with an increase in 850mb-700mb moisture during the day and then moves across the area Sunday night with its associated cold front, so expect another mild day with highs well into the 50's. As the front/wave moves through Sunday night, models are beginning to indicate the potential for some light precipitation across the northern counties. At this point, thermal profiles from both the NAM and GFS would suggest light snow and or flurries. We are not expecting anything impactful (sp?), but could see a very light dusting at most. This will quickly exit early Monday morning with high pressure then building down across Kansas and Oklahoma for quiet but colder conditions both Monday and Monday night, as highs drop back into the 30's to near 40 and lows in the teens and 20's.


The surface high moves off to the east Tuesday, with winds coming around to the south. The pressure gradient really tightens between the departing high and a strengthening cold front over the Plains. The combination of rising mid level heights and strong south to southwest winds will result in a warming trend, bring afternoon highs back into the 50's by Wednesday. In addition, these stronger winds Tuesday afternoon will result in elevated fire weather conditions, which may persist into Wednesday as well.


It is still looking like there will be a potential for some winter weather Wednesday night and Thursday. However, confidence remains rather low in terms of precipitation type and amounts. A cold front is poised to move through Wednesday night ushering in colder air. The question will be the timing of precipitation onset. GFS is a little more bullish on QPF amounts versus the ECMWF, from Wednesday night into Thursday. It is still much to early for any specifics and as such will continue to mention a rain/snow potential. It is something to certainly keep an eye on since there could be potential impacts.


Both the GFS and ECMWF pushes system through Thursday night with Friday and Friday night looking dry but cold. Catch more of my junk at!

Friday, January 26, 2018

Are we in the midst of global warming? Yes, we are!

Taney County MO - In referencing the graphic above concerning the average temperatures, this year versus 2017, it was nice to see that the trend was headed upwards in a fairly normal fashion! Other than that rather nasty bout of frigid weather in the mid portion of the month, we've been following the 'global warming' forecast trend rather nicely. In January alone, we've enjoyed temps that have been 7 degrees Fahrenheit above the normal high and 13 above the normal lows! (And, as many people know, it's those elevated night time lows that are the most telling when it comes to talking about climate change). Not that I feel there's anything wrong with it being warmer than it used to. While many environmentalists wring their hands over rising global temperatures, I'm actually very happy. The truth be told, when you have a planet whose population is rising now towards 8 billion, you gotta expect a few unpleasant surprises. Remembering that even though the United States does throw out a lot of carbon dioxide, those amounts for America versus the shear magnitude of the other seven billion plus people in the rest of the world are relatively tiny. Billions of very poor people must cook and heat their 'homes' with an open fire. The carbon dioxide emitted by the practice is absolutely humongous. And sadly, the only way one could change that equation would be to kill off at least half the population! That ain't gonna happen (I hope), and so the global temps will continue to rise. (Thankfully, by the time any really serious effect are felt, quite a large amount of time will have passed). Scientific American published a great article on the topic in which they stated;

In less than 1,000 years, if consumption continues to increase at the current rate, we will have exhausted the currently known reserves of coal and oil. By that time we will have multiplied the carbon dioxide tonnage of the air 18 times. When the ocean–atmosphere system comes back to equilibrium, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air will be 10 times greater than it is today, and the earth will be 22 degrees warmer. In another few thousand years, when the carbonate content of the oceans has reached equilibrium, the concentration will still be four times greater than it is today. The earth's temperature will then fall to about 12.5 degrees above its present average.'

So, things look to warm up quite a bit, but will not be terribly punishing to humanity for a number of centuries. [Note: Most of the doom and gloom predictions assume that nothing changes and that we will all continue to throw CO2 into the air with wild abandon. Yet in all likelihood, humanity will have managed to kill off itself much sooner than that]! There exists an elephant standing right in the middle of our room that everyone is ignoring. Please see my post on the coming Water Wars for what is even more likely to happen in just a few decades!