Sunday, January 29, 2017

Work week for first week of February!


A warm up? Light winds early will give way to southwest winds by early afternoon with a nice warm up ahead of an approaching surface front. MOS guidance has temperatures at or just above 60 deg F over the the Taney County forecast area. This actually might be a tad cool in a southwesterly surface flow regime. Potential weather impacts are fire weather related with warm/dry conditions and moderate wind gusts in the afternoon. Doesn't look like warning conditions, but elevated concerns are still warranted.


The front will slow and maybe stall briefly for a time over or near our area. In any case, a dry air mass will be in place and we are not expecting any precipitation. It should be warmer than normal and dry with fairly light winds. Ergo, our mini-drought stricken condition is likely to continue..


The surface front over our area Tue into Wed will finally start to get pushed south as a Canadian surface ridge noses into our area. The ECMWF and Canadian guidance continue to push the surface high center into Neb/IA/northern MO by Fri. The GFS keeps the surface high center farther north and allows some moisture to advect northward into the region Thu. So, or now, we will go closer to the drier solutions during this time. Forecast confidence starts to lower as guidance has trouble zeroing in on individual systems in the zonal flow.


A warming trend will commence today as the Canadian high departs and winds shift south. Temperatures will increase about 10 degrees over yesterday with another 10 to 15 degree jump on Sunday under zonal flow aloft.

In addition to shifting to the south a weak wave moving across southern Canada will drop pressures over the Northern Plains and increase the pressure gradient during the day today. Moisture will lag resulting in RH values dropping into the 30's and an elevated threat for the spread of grass fires.

Monday, January 23, 2017

Kristiina Brask - Ohikiitävää ja Yksi meistä

Final work week of January 2017 for Taney County!

Work week four for Taney County Missouri will be pretty typical of January, sad to say. What better time than right now to seek warm climes to the south!

Monday will see extensive cloud cover followed by a clearing line. Most areas should have clearing by this afternoon except the far eastern Ozarks up to central Missouri may hold on to the clouds the longest today. Temperatures will be seasonable today in the middle to upper 40's. Swell...


A stronger upper level system will be moving out across the Central and Northern Plains tomorrow. A surface low pressure will deepen tomorrow afternoon across northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska. The pressure gradient will develop windy conditions across the area Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds may gusts up to 40 mph. High temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 60's. Will need to monitor trends on grassland fire weather conditions for Tuesday afternoon. With warm, gusty weather along with lower humidity values and dormant vegetation...could see an elevated grassland fire risk Tuesday afternoon.


A strong cold front will move through the area on Wednesday and bring more seasonable like temperatures back for the end of the week. There are hints with the Canadian and GFS of maybe a slight chance for some isolated light sprinkles or possibly flurries Wednesday evening across portions of the Ozarks or central Missouri. No measurable rainfall or impacts are expected, but it was still worth a mention of the possibility.

The overall weather pattern changes into trough across the eastern U.S. and an upper level ridge across the West Coast. Overall, we can expect seasonable cooler weather for end of week and next week with mostly dry weather. Blah!


A northwest upper level flow pattern will set up over the region through the weekend. Seasonable temperatures for late January will occur each day through the weekend as highs warn into the 40's and lows drop into the 20's. Could things get more boring?


An upper level disturbance will dive south across the region Saturday night into Sunday. The air mass will be dry and moisture return limited so over all precipitation chances are low. Though there may be just enough lift to squeeze out a flurry or two but any precipitation will be very light and no impacts are expected.

Monday, January 16, 2017

Taney Cty Wx work week 3!

After the warmer day Monday, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels for Tuesday, with highs in the 40s. We will need to watch for fog Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, as skies
finally begin to clear and high pressure moves overhead, resulting in light and variable winds for a time.

The area looks to be on the periphery of upper level ridging Wednesday, which will help boot temperatures into the 50s, with at least some sunshine. Additional rain chances may develop
Wednesday night through early Friday, as an upper level low pivots east over the Plains.

Forecast confidence going into the weekend is low at this point, with a rather messy upper level pattern expected over the CONUS. Several small shortwaves or closed upper level lows are forecast to be embedded within larger-scale troughing (is that even a word?) over the western and central US, and depending on timing and location of these features, rain chances may well return to the area over the weekend.

A more substantial warm up is expected Friday into Saturday as deep southerly to southwesterly flow will persist in the wake of the exiting upper low. Cloud cover could limit warming potential but still expect highs near 60 Friday and lower 60's Saturday. About frigging time too!

Monday, January 9, 2017

Taney County MO work week #2!


A weak front will push across the area Monday night and Tuesday as a shortwave trough tracks along U.S/Canadian border. Moisture flux ahead of this system will be just enough to generate some patchy
drizzle or light rain especially across the eastern Ozarks.


The front will return northward as a warm front on Wednesday allowing for even warmer temperatures. Highs in the lower 60's will be common Wednesday.

A more active weather pattern will unfold late in the week into the weekend as a powerful storm system pushes onto the west coast then digs into the desert southwest. The evolution of this system remains highly uncertain with model solutions differing significantly.


By late Thursday evening, a low level jet and isentropic upglide will commence across southern Missouri as upper level low pressure digs south along the central California coast. We are expecting
precipitation to break out across far southern Missouri and begin spreading north into the Highway 60 corridor by sunrise. We have a hunch that this precipitation may start sooner than some models
are indicating...possibly even before midnight over parts of southern Missouri.

Precipitation type will largely be freezing rain (or freezing drizzle) tonight as the freezing line should make it at least to the Missouri/Arkansas border. Our hunch is that it will actually make it farther south into northern Arkansas. There may be a few pockets of sleet mixed in as there will be some weak instability available.


Model solutions further diverge Friday night into Saturday resulting from different handling of the upper low coming out of desert southwest. The GFS model paints a colder scenario and greater potential of wintry precipitation including freezing rain while the ECMWF model brings warmer air northward with less potential for wintry precipitation. In either case active weather is expected with the potential of moderate to heavy precipitation amounts.

Again it is emphasized that this is a low confidence forecast with uncertainty related to precipitation types and amounts. We expect additional changes and refinements to the forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest weather forecast as additional model data is analyzed.