Taney weather for work week Dec 18-22!

MONDAY - FRIDAY

Yawn! Temperatures heading into Monday and then on through the week will remain in the 50's during the day with overnight temperatures in the 30's for the most part, thanks to continuing southwesterly flow aloft across the region. For me that translates into a cross between hibernating and hitting the bars!

THURSDAY

Very warm and breezy conditions are expected on Thursday as a surface low and cold front move into KS/OK area. There are still timing differences among various guidance sims concerning the fropa (frontal passage) timing and this is mainly dependent on how strong surface waves will develop along the front. The warm sector is initially characterized by modest low level moisture and not much in the way of rain chances. This gradually changes as the front moves into eastern MO.

FRIDAY

The main focus for Friday continues to be the potential for snow from Friday night into Saturday morning. Models continue to depict a short wave trough pivoting east across the region during this period, with this wave shearing (weakening) with time. An area of rain should initially expand from southwest to northeast from the Arklatex into southeastern Missouri during the day on Friday as low and mid-level frontogenesis strengthens ahead of that approaching short wave trough.

One of the keys to the forecast will then be how much additional precipitation development can take place farther north into the "cold sector" of this developing low pressure system from eastern

Oklahoma into southern Missouri. Close inspection of model cross sections indicates that this window may be shrinking from both a spatial and temporal standpoint.

SATURDAY

Unseasonably cold air will move south out of Canada during this time. Can't rule out some flurries or a light dusting accumulation in some spots, especially Sunday, with the passage of a shortwave, but again, not looking at much if anything at all. Christmas Day may be a struggle to get above freezing in many/most areas.

SUNDAY

Digging energy across the Plains may then bring another chance for some light snow to the region from late Saturday night into Sunday. There are still considerable differences regarding the track of this energy, thus we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range for now.

Global models from the early to middle portions of next week are then struggling from a consistency standpoint. We went on the cold side with temperatures as GFS five wave charts indicate a good

signal for cross polar flow and an amplified trough over eastern North America. There are some signals for more precipitation chances by midweek, however confidence remains low due to the aforementioned inconsistency with models.

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