Light southerly winds and some passing cirrus were keeping temps in the low 40's east to the low 50's west for Monday early. A developing surface low pressure across Arkansas will then move slowly east as the day progresses. This combined with rising heights/thicknesses and a tightening pressure gradient across the plains will result in a very warm and windy day today across the Taney County area. We went a few degrees higher than guidance for highs given latest performance of overachieving highs during these southwest wind setups. Also, computers models have handled expected dew points poorly lately, especially during peak afternoon mixing and have followed alternative thinking for today which promotes a slower moisture return. This dry air will bode potentially ill winds, as a result...
The warm and windy conditions will only exacerbate the fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning will be issued for portions of the area on Monday. Southerly winds will also help to keep temps up tonight ahead of a cold front moving south into Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa. Fun times!
A weather front is forecast to dig into the Rockies on Tuesday with an associated cold front moving through in the evening as low pressure develops across Oklahoma. This system, while compact, will not have much moisture or instability with it and rainfall amounts will be rather light on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through. Models move this system through rather slowly and eventually a wave to our north will kick it along Wednesday night along with a stronger cold front.
After the balmy temperatures of the last few days, cooler temperatures are on tap for Wednesday with highs expected to be in the upper 50's to perhaps lower 60's. These temperatures out there are still a solid 10-15 degrees above normal. So, we can't complain too much!
Lingering light rain showers may then hold on across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday morning as another short wave trough quickly moves into the region behind the departing closed upper level low. Otherwise, dry weather will return to the area for the remainder of the week. Temperatures through Saturday will remain above normal with highs in the upper 5'0s to lower 60's and lows in generally in the 30's.
Global models then continue to indicate a large scale pattern change as we get into next week. However, significant differences remain in the synoptic scale regarding timing and placement of
troughs. The good news is that regardless of any particular model solution, we should stand increasing chances for precipitation starting early next week as a southwesterly flow aloft develops and Gulf of Mexico moisture returns north.
Looking ahead, five wave charts indicate a long wave pattern which would then support a deepening trough over eastern North America with a signal for cross-polar flow. If this pans out, much colder temperatures may be on the way as we get towards the end of next week. See the Climate section below for more detailed information.
By Sunday, an upper level trough will develop across the western U.S. with a sharp upper level ridge building along the West Coast into southwest Canada. A strong cold front will start sliding
southward across the Central Plains and move into our region Monday night. Ahead of the front on Monday, winds will be breezy 15 to 20 mph. Models indicate a good chance of widespread light rainfall Monday night into Tuesday across the area with QPF amounts around a quarter of an inch. There may be just enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder but no severe weather is
A large and deep trough develops and digs across the Great Lakes Region into the Midwest Region by the middle of next week. All medium and long range guidance indicates a much colder weather pattern will likely develop with below normal temperatures for the middle and end of next week.