SUNDAY - MONDAY
An area of disturbance will spread south towards the area today, then will move through the area tonight into Monday.
As the trough moves south Sunday, an associated cold front will move through the area. Scattered showers and storms should be able to develop along the front, especially north of I-44 as instability increases with the heating of the day. As the front moves south of I-44 tonight into Monday coverage should decrease but a few showers/storms will remain possible.
As instability increases Monday afternoon and evening a few strong storms will be possible, again mainly north of I-44. The main risk will be winds in excess of 50 mph and hail to the size of nickels in a few of the strongest storms.
Highs this Sunday afternoon should be able to top out in the lower to middle 80's as highs in the lower 80's are expected on Sunday. An upper level ridge will remain across the western CONUS through much of the week leaving the area in a northwest flow upper level pattern. This will keep the below normal conditions in place across the area as highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's occur each afternoon.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY
At this time we do not expect much in way of rain behind the front Tuesday through Thursday. Late this week into the weekend we may see moisture from the remnants of Harvey try to spread north into area. This could bring some rain chances to the area but confidence is low in the track of the system and medium range models remain inconsistent from run to run and each other.
TD "Harvey" will then track across northern Mississippi on Thursday and western Tennessee Thursday night. Almost all of the precipitation will remain southeast of the CWA, but up to a quarter inch may affect the far southeast portion of Oregon county.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND
The upcoming holiday weekend looks to be dry across the area with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on Friday, but warming back to more normal readings in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday in the wake of the tropical system.
A cold front is forecast to push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning which will bring the next chance of showers/thunderstorms to the region from the northwest. This will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Tuesday into the middle of next week.