Sunday, August 27, 2017

Weather for Taney Country last week of August 2017!


An area of disturbance will spread south towards the area today, then will move through the area tonight into Monday.

As the trough moves south Sunday, an associated cold front will move through the area. Scattered showers and storms should be able to develop along the front, especially north of I-44 as instability increases with the heating of the day. As the front moves south of I-44 tonight into Monday coverage should decrease but a few showers/storms will remain possible.

As instability increases Monday afternoon and evening a few strong storms will be possible, again mainly north of I-44. The main risk will be winds in excess of 50 mph and hail to the size of nickels in a few of the strongest storms.

Highs this Sunday afternoon should be able to top out in the lower to middle 80's as highs in the lower 80's are expected on Sunday. An upper level ridge will remain across the western CONUS through much of the week leaving the area in a northwest flow upper level pattern. This will keep the below normal conditions in place across the area as highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's occur each afternoon.


At this time we do not expect much in way of rain behind the front Tuesday through Thursday. Late this week into the weekend we may see moisture from the remnants of Harvey try to spread north into area. This could bring some rain chances to the area but confidence is low in the track of the system and medium range models remain inconsistent from run to run and each other.

TD "Harvey" will then track across northern Mississippi on Thursday and western Tennessee Thursday night. Almost all of the precipitation will remain southeast of the CWA, but up to a quarter inch may affect the far southeast portion of Oregon county.


The upcoming holiday weekend looks to be dry across the area with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on Friday, but warming back to more normal readings in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday in the wake of the tropical system.

A cold front is forecast to push through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning which will bring the next chance of showers/thunderstorms to the region from the northwest. This will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Tuesday into the middle of next week.

Sunday, August 20, 2017

While there be a travel crisis on August 21?

Beginning in the morning hours on the East Coast and then running for for some time afterwards, millions of people all across the nation will have a chance to experience a full eclipse of the sun! This is something that hasn't happened of such extent in the US for over ninety years, and so, is a very rare event. Millions of dollars have been spent on viewing glasses and hotel reservations. The only big question that remains will be one of cloud cover.... [Begin the background music for Jaws]

Picture for yourself among millions of other cars on the road that day, all full of eager solar eclipse viewers vying for  a good patch of clear sky. The computer generated map (above) of clouds for August the 21st paint a somewhat troublesome picture for parts of the US along the path of totality. My home state of Missouri looks to be especially problematic and I can just imagine the chaos as tens of thousands of cars all scramble in a mad dash to catch was will be about a two minute event. And to make things even more interesting, it'll be getting rather dark for them too!

Monday, August 7, 2017

August 21, 2017 weather for the eclipse of the sun!

Latest computer generated cloud forecast!
Forsyth MO - Slowly but with gaining momentum, people all over are talking about the coming solar eclipse where millions will have a chance to experience totality. And sure, even though the 'event' last for just a span of minutes, that won't stop people from driving long distances to experience this rare solar phenomena.

Where, I reside in Forsyth Missouri in Taney County, we will get some bang for the buck as the sun will become up to 90% obscured sometime around 11:43 AM'ish on an otherwise plain Jane Monday in August. And while I am retired and could easily drive a hundred or so miles to catch a complete eclipse, I've chosen to content myself with what I could see from my current location. To that end, I purchased a 5-Pack Premium ISO and CE Certified Lunt Solar Eclipse Glasses that cost about thirteen dollars. I plan to pass out the other 4 to a friend so that she and her kids can also enjoy the fun.

But, as it often the case, there is a potential fly in the cosmic ointment! If the morning of the event happens to be cloudy or even hazy, this whole deal could be a bust. To that end, I will be selecting four sites that could be reached by car when given a day or so notice. The map, at right, shows some locales that will experience a complete eclipse. I have chosen the following cities that I will keep track of in the days leading up to the event on the 21st. They are; Sedalia, Jefferson City, Columbia and Cuba. All of which lie in Missouri and are reachable by automobiles. The best location of the bunch would be Columbia as it lies smack dab in the center of the swath of totality! I will be update the expected cloud coverage (or hopefully lack of it) beginning a week before the event on August the 14th. My updates will be posted at

When planning to view the eclipse, being flexible and ready to move out to a better and clearer sky may be a plus. NASA has an interactive map that can serve as an aid to planning locations and to knowing exact times that the eclipse will begin and end.... Also, note that the next time an event on this scale will not occur until 2024 & 2045... The one in 2024 will be within easy driving distance from places like Branson and Forsyth!
April 8, 2024 - See article
August 12,2045

Latest August 21 Eclipse Update: 
During the window between noon and 2 pm, we expect the majority of the local area to see partly cloudy skies with some occasional high cirrus clouds and some cumulus clouds developing by midday or early afternoon. At the time of the peak of the eclipse, we have about a 10 to 20 percent chance of a pop up shower or storm. Temperatures will top out around the lower 90s today but during the eclipse we may see a brief drop or lag in temperature climb. We wouldn't be surprised to see some weather stations across central Missouri and eastern Ozarks drop several degrees by 1 pm.

Make sure to use only approved viewing equipment - Click here for a list!

See also:

Eclipse Phenomena: What to Watch For

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Notes on August 2016 vs 2017

 As months go, August 2016 was pretty average. We had 15 days that were above the average temperatures of 89ºF. With a combine average of 79.3ºF versus a 30 year historical average of 76.5ºF, it was easy to see that those warmer nighttime temperatures were something to be concerned about. (After all, the only true measurement of Global warming comes from just how low the temps drop during the nighttime)! That said, one must remember that my weather station is just one single dot of data and really did not mean much when data from all over the world is looked at...
Rainfall, at 2.01 inches was considerably behind the 'normal average' of 3.41 inches. That merely reflected the mini drought we were in for the entire year. Something that had since been corrected with the flooding rains of April and May of 2017! As of August 2017, we were still about 4 inches ahead of the average. That was the good news, the bad news is that all the other months, thus far, had fallen short of the average for rainfall.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Taney County Weather Aug 6 to the 12th!


Starting later on Friday, August the 5th, the next 48 hours looks to be a rather wet period with several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall expected.

Periods of heavy rain and storms will be ongoing through the day Sunday and through early Monday morning as a very slow moving frontal boundary drifts to the southeast into northern Arkansas. This will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. This will be especially true for storms that train over the same areas along the slow moving front. This period looks to have the highest potential for flooding rains to occur with 2 to 4 inches currently forecast by the majority of the models.


Monday afternoon through the majority of Wednesday looks more quiet with surface high pressure moving over the area behind the weekend storm system. This will be a needed break as models bring another system with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to the area for the later half of the week. Depending on the model you look at the rain could begin again as early as late Wednesday night to Thursday morning and continue into next weekend.

The one silver lining with the forecast is the unseasonably cool temperatures that are expected through next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to only climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's each day.


A front will pass south through the Ozarks on Friday as the stronger short wave energy dives across the southern Great Lakes. The potential for showers and storms will continue into Friday, especially across southern Missouri.


The big question then remains how far south of the area that front will get from this weekend into early next week. The west- northwest flow aloft will likely persist through the entire period. At this time, it still appears that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Areas of central Missouri may see little in the way of precipitation this weekend.

Global models and ensembles continue to indicate that the heaviest swath of rainfall may remain just to the west and south of the Missouri Ozarks from south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is still decent consensus for a solid 3-6" of rainfall through the weekend across that area. Areas of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri are in line to get more in the 1-3" range, with the highest amounts near the Oklahoma border.

There are no plans for any kind of Flash Flood Watch at this time with the best signal for excessive rainfall remaining to our west and south. However, we will continue to monitor the situation closely as a shift to the northeast with the heavy rainfall axis may warrant a threat for flooding across portions of the area.

Our streak of below normal temperatures will continue through at least the middle of next week.