November 2018 was not nice!

Forsyth Mo. Did November have much to recommend in 2018, actually no. It was colder than normal on many days, as the graphic of the daily average temperatures below shows.

December work week numero one for Taney County!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

A big trough will develop and dig across the central U.S. Early this week. A strong cold front will move into the region Monday afternoon. Monday will be a warm and windy day with some wind gusts over 35 mph possible. Model guidance indicate a few shower possible over eastern Kansas by late Monday morning to midday. A broken line of storms will quickly develop right along the cold front by mid to late afternoon Monday. Most unstable CAPE values may be up to 1000 J/KG along with very strong shear. There appears to be at least a marginal threat for a couple strong to isolated severe storms possible across the Ozarks Region Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Given the dynamics, isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph may be the main threat. The great chance of rainfall and amounts will be along the I-44 corridor and southeastward. The front and storms clear through the Ozarks region shortly after midnight.

The upper level trough continues to establish itself over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region by Tuesday. It will be a cool and breezy day across the Ozarks.

WEDNESDAY

A deep trough weather pattern sets up across the Midwest and eastern U.S. for the middle of next week with deep northerly flow across our region. High temperatures will only be in the upper 30's to low 40's with overnight lows in the 20s. It looks like we will likely see a couple shortwaves riding through the upper level flow of the trough and associated fronts which will reinforce the colder weather for the latter part of the week.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Guidance continues to show a strong shortwave digging and moving across the Midwest Region into the Ohio River Valley on Friday with a clipper like system moving across the area. This feature may bring another chance for snow flurries across portions of the region. At this time, we do not see any impacts but will monitor future trends. The latest guidance has come in colder for the end of the week and forecast temperatures have reflected that. We will likely see highs only in the 30's and overnight lows in the teens and 20's. Wind chills may drop into the single digits by Friday and Saturday. Some moderation in temperatures may return by next weekend.

No matter what, it will definitely feel more like winter next week. So dig out the winter coats and make sure you're full of eggnog before heading out!

www.taneyweather.com

Wx for Nov 2017 work week one!

MONDAY

Another dry cold will arrive early Monday morning and pass through without much fanfare. There will be an increase in mid level clouds with the front and temperatures will be knocked down a few degrees again on Monday. A couple of the models indicate a couple sprinkles possible behind the front Monday afternoon but we have don't any mention of measurable rainfall in the forecast.

I think I'll sleep in on that day!

TUESDAY

Tuesday looks like it will be the coolest day of the week with clouds increasing during the day. A disturbance moving along in the west-southwest flow will start to move in Halloween evening. Models show scattered showers developing by mid evening and overnight...especially across southern Missouri into south central Missouri. At this time, it looks like Trick or Treaters will have mostly dry weather, but cold rain showers increasing later in the evening.

WEDNESDAY

Showers will taper off from west to east on Wednesday as the disturbance moves eastward.

THURSDAY AND ON

Southerly flow brings back warmer temperatures by Thursday with highs in the lower 70s. Another frontal boundary drops down into the region by Friday or Saturday. The boundary will be just north of our area. We will see scattered chances for showers Friday into Saturday with milder than average temperatures.

Fourth week of October 2017 weather!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

Western CONUS/east Pacific upper level ridging with a downstream trough will keep the region in northwest flow aloft. Gusty northwestern winds and dry weather will continue Tuesday with below normal temperatures.

WEDNESDAY

Temperatures will moderate after a chilly start Wednesday morning as gusty winds back to the west ahead of another approaching surface trough/front.

THURSDAY

Thursday is the pick of the litter out of the next 7 days across the region. If you like warm weather, Thursday is your day with plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach the middle 70's to near 80 at some locations. Southwest winds will be breezy again around 10 to 20 mph. A strong and dry cold front will move through the area late Thursday night into very early

Friday morning.

FRIDAY

Friday will be a shocker compared to Thursday. Northwest winds will be gusting up to 35 mph, along with mostly cloudy skies behind the cold front. A deep and sharp upper level trough will drop southward across the Midwest Region for Friday and Saturday. Friday's afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach the middle or upper 40's but with gusty winds...it will feel more like it is in the 30's with the wind chill. A light freeze looks increasing likely by Friday into early Saturday morning with temperatures in the lower 30's.

SATURDAY

The deep trough will be right over the region on Saturday with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Model guidance indicates some very light QPF possible across central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks region early Saturday morning through the early afternoon. There may be a few flurries or sprinkles possible with highs only in the lower to middle 40's on Saturday. If we do see some snow flakes, it will not cause any impacts or accumulate.

Skies will clear out Saturday night and winds will relax. This will likely be the coldest night so far this season and the growing season will come to an end with forecast low temperatures in the middle to upper 20's. We will most likely have some kind of freeze headlines for the weekend. We will slowly begin to moderate the temperatures Sunday into Monday with dry weather. Another cold front will move through Monday night into early on Tuesday. Some slight rain chances may return behind the front on Tuesday next week. www.taneyweather.com

Taney County week three in 2017!

I decided to skip the weather for the second week of September as it was too boring for words.

MONDAY - THURSDAY

After the potential for some rain showers over the weekend, courtesy of a front that will try and push south into the central Plains and northern Missouri, things may then warm up a bit...

The GFS has come in with a more amplified southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. Versus previous runs. The GFS five wave charts also support the more amplified pattern. Even the ECMWF model is trending this way. We may therefore hang onto the above normal temperatures along with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. See more at www.taneyweather.com!

FRIDAY - WEEKEND

The area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 80's to around 90. Models due show 850mb temps a degree or two cooler with each passing day so may see a slight reduction in temps each day.

A large upper level trough will begin to slowly move east toward the area beginning Sunday. A few afternoon showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly across the eastern Ozarks.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday through Wednesday as pieces of energy move toward the area. This will also cause highs to return to average levels for the time of year.

Hail strikes again!

Forsyth MO - Normally, hail falling from the skies is a pretty rare event. Part of the reason is the conditions required to it to form. (Hail forms when thunderstorm updrafts are strong enough to carry water droplets well above the freezing level. This freezing process forms a hailstone, which can grow as additional water freezes onto it. Eventually, the hailstone becomes too heavy for the updrafts to support it and it falls to the ground.) The other reason is that when it does fall, it tends to fall in rather narrow strips and only for short periods of time. It's not unusual for a person in a car to be in dry conditions one minute, a driving rain with hail the next and then back out of the whole deal a few minutes later. Lastly, hail in southwest Missouri is much more likely early into the spring season when enough cold air can be scrounged up!

So, it was amazing to me to see similar hail events, one on March 9 and the other May 11 happened so darn close together. The picture at right was a hailstone that greeted me at my front door. And yes, it was made in the good ol US of A!