SUNDAY – MONDAY [JANUARY 28]
On Sunday, a shortwave trough drops through the flow with an increase in 850mb-700mb moisture during the day and then moves across the area Sunday night with its associated cold front, so expect another mild day with highs well into the 50's. As the front/wave moves through Sunday night, models are beginning to indicate the potential for some light precipitation across the northern counties. At this point, thermal profiles from both the NAM and GFS would suggest light snow and or flurries. We are not expecting anything impactful (sp?), but could see a very light dusting at most. This will quickly exit early Monday morning with high pressure then building down across Kansas and Oklahoma for quiet but colder conditions both Monday and Monday night, as highs drop back into the 30's to near 40 and lows in the teens and 20's.
The surface high moves off to the east Tuesday, with winds coming around to the south. The pressure gradient really tightens between the departing high and a strengthening cold front over the Plains. The combination of rising mid level heights and strong south to southwest winds will result in a warming trend, bring afternoon highs back into the 50's by Wednesday. In addition, these stronger winds Tuesday afternoon will result in elevated fire weather conditions, which may persist into Wednesday as well.
It is still looking like there will be a potential for some winter weather Wednesday night and Thursday. However, confidence remains rather low in terms of precipitation type and amounts. A cold front is poised to move through Wednesday night ushering in colder air. The question will be the timing of precipitation onset. GFS is a little more bullish on QPF amounts versus the ECMWF, from Wednesday night into Thursday. It is still much to early for any specifics and as such will continue to mention a rain/snow potential. It is something to certainly keep an eye on since there could be potential impacts.
Both the GFS and ECMWF pushes system through Thursday night with Friday and Friday night looking dry but cold. Catch more of my junk at www.taneyweather.com!