Monday, October 9, 2017

Taney County weather Oct 9 thru Oct 14!


It was a mild and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 60s under clear skies and light winds. These quiet conditions will continue today as readings warm into the 80s' this afternoon.

By this evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma and south central Kansas. A moisture tongue and instability axis will set up in this area, interacting with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Severe storms are becoming likely west of the Ozarks, however, we're less confident that sufficient instability will be present for severe storms on the Missouri side.

As of now we will continue mentioning the risk for 50 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail west of Springfield.


Showers and thunderstorms will translate eastward into Tuesday as a large upper level system swings overhead. This precipitation comes to an end by Tuesday night. Tuesday night lows will fall into the 40's as a cool rush of Canadian air spreads in.

This would be our first fall type cool air.


Temps on Wednesday will struggle to warm out of the 60's with 40's again Wednesday night.

The extended period of dry weather will continue through Saturday evening. Warmer air will spread in as southerly breezes return.

Models have sped up our next system over the weekend as a cold front moves in Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like this feature will bring a period of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday, October 6, 2017

TS Nate has potential to slam into New Orleans!

The mayor of New Orleans late Thursday declared a state of emergency for the city ahead of Tropical Storm Nate, which has already been blamed for 22 deaths in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

The city’s mayor Mitch Landrieu said residents who live outside the city’s levee system or in low-lying areas should move to higher ground.

“There is no need to panic,” he tweeted. “Be ready and prepare. Get a plan. Prepare to protect your personal property.”

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Taney County Wx - October week one!

Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through midweek as those southeasterly winds persist. The best moisture advection will actually occur across the southern and then central Plains as a surface ridge axis remains planted across the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, a northeast to southwest oriented frontal boundary will become established from the western Great Lakes into the Corn Belt and then southern Plains from Monday night into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should develop to our northwest along that front and in closer vicinity to short wave energy tracking northeast within the southwesterly flow aloft. [Yawn...]


Models all have showers/thunder breaking out across the area this morning. PW values will significantly increase across the forecast area today with most locations rising to around 1.6 to 1.9 in. The cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms will hold down warming today into the mid 70's to around 80. Upper level energy over the northern plains will shift east along the U.S. Canada border
tonight and will help to flatten out the ridge in the eastern U.S. This will help to set up the best moisture axis in a southwest to northeast fashion with the highest PW values setting up over our
northwestern CWA. The best chances of rain will be over our northwestern CWA tonight. Lows tonight will be quite mild in the low to mid 60's. [Me picking up some interest]...


The large scale pattern then becomes somewhat interesting as we head into the Wednesday through Thursday night time frame. Models are in good agreement that we will see a confluent mid and
upper level flow develop from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will be supportive of that front leaning over and becoming west to east oriented somewhere
across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. This setup can be a heavy rain producer. We will keep close tabs on this potential. The good news is that we need the rainfall. Thus, we could stand to pick up a few inches (or even more) without any worries of excessive runoff.


Global models then become divergent as we get into late this week. There is some loose consensus that the convergent flow will break down and an upper level trough will eject out of the western United States. However, impacts on sensible weather are a tough call out that far.

In term of temperatures, we will see a downward trend throughout the work week as clouds and precipitation become bigger players. The eventual position of that front will also come into play from
mid to late week.


Widespread light rainfall over the entire area during the day, but by Saturday evening, all precipitation will have shifted east of the Ozarks, bringing a very pleasant evening for the region. Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the low to mid 50's.


Southwest flow aloft quickly re-establishes itself on Sunday bringing surface temperatures back into the 80s. Dew points in the 50's and low 60's will make conditions feel less humid than what we've experienced over the past couple weeks. See more at!