Sunday, October 29, 2017

Wx for Nov 2017 work week one!


Another dry cold will arrive early Monday morning and pass through without much fanfare. There will be an increase in mid level clouds with the front and temperatures will be knocked down a few degrees again on Monday. A couple of the models indicate a couple sprinkles possible behind the front Monday afternoon but we have don't any mention of measurable rainfall in the forecast.

I think I'll sleep in on that day!


Tuesday looks like it will be the coolest day of the week with clouds increasing during the day. A disturbance moving along in the west-southwest flow will start to move in Halloween evening. Models show scattered showers developing by mid evening and overnight...especially across southern Missouri into south central Missouri. At this time, it looks like Trick or Treaters will have mostly dry weather, but cold rain showers increasing later in the evening.


Showers will taper off from west to east on Wednesday as the disturbance moves eastward.


Southerly flow brings back warmer temperatures by Thursday with highs in the lower 70s. Another frontal boundary drops down into the region by Friday or Saturday. The boundary will be just north of our area. We will see scattered chances for showers Friday into Saturday with milder than average temperatures.

Monday, October 23, 2017

Beware November the 13!

Forsyth MO - On a slow day in October, I decided to look at the month of November and how the temperatures shaped up over the past five years! I specifically wanted to see what the average high and low for each day would look like when graphed out! Here's what I got in the way of a graph:

Here is the raw data:

What struck me was how consistent the 13th of that month had been for all those years - as in consistently cold! So, I thought it would be fun to see what happens this year!

Fourth week of October 2017 weather!


Western CONUS/east Pacific upper level ridging with a downstream trough will keep the region in northwest flow aloft. Gusty northwestern winds and dry weather will continue Tuesday with below normal temperatures.


Temperatures will moderate after a chilly start Wednesday morning as gusty winds back to the west ahead of another approaching surface trough/front.


Thursday is the pick of the litter out of the next 7 days across the region. If you like warm weather, Thursday is your day with plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach the middle 70's to near 80 at some locations. Southwest winds will be breezy again around 10 to 20 mph. A strong and dry cold front will move through the area late Thursday night into very early
Friday morning.


Friday will be a shocker compared to Thursday. Northwest winds will be gusting up to 35 mph, along with mostly cloudy skies behind the cold front. A deep and sharp upper level trough will drop southward across the Midwest Region for Friday and Saturday. Friday's afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach the middle or upper 40's but with gusty will feel more like it is in the 30's with the wind chill. A light freeze looks increasing likely by Friday into early Saturday morning with temperatures in the lower 30's.


The deep trough will be right over the region on Saturday with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Model guidance indicates some very light QPF possible across central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks region early Saturday morning through the early afternoon. There may be a few flurries or sprinkles possible with highs only in the lower to middle 40's on Saturday. If we do see some snow flakes, it will not cause any impacts or accumulate.

Skies will clear out Saturday night and winds will relax. This will likely be the coldest night so far this season and the growing season will come to an end with forecast low temperatures in the middle to upper 20's. We will most likely have some kind of freeze headlines for the weekend. We will slowly begin to moderate the temperatures Sunday into Monday with dry weather. Another cold front will move through Monday night into early on Tuesday. Some slight rain chances may return behind the front on Tuesday next week.

Monday, October 9, 2017

Taney County weather Oct 9 thru Oct 14!


It was a mild and quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 60s under clear skies and light winds. These quiet conditions will continue today as readings warm into the 80s' this afternoon.

By this evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma and south central Kansas. A moisture tongue and instability axis will set up in this area, interacting with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Severe storms are becoming likely west of the Ozarks, however, we're less confident that sufficient instability will be present for severe storms on the Missouri side.

As of now we will continue mentioning the risk for 50 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail west of Springfield.


Showers and thunderstorms will translate eastward into Tuesday as a large upper level system swings overhead. This precipitation comes to an end by Tuesday night. Tuesday night lows will fall into the 40's as a cool rush of Canadian air spreads in.

This would be our first fall type cool air.


Temps on Wednesday will struggle to warm out of the 60's with 40's again Wednesday night.

The extended period of dry weather will continue through Saturday evening. Warmer air will spread in as southerly breezes return.

Models have sped up our next system over the weekend as a cold front moves in Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like this feature will bring a period of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday, October 6, 2017

TS Nate has potential to slam into New Orleans!

The mayor of New Orleans late Thursday declared a state of emergency for the city ahead of Tropical Storm Nate, which has already been blamed for 22 deaths in Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

The city’s mayor Mitch Landrieu said residents who live outside the city’s levee system or in low-lying areas should move to higher ground.

“There is no need to panic,” he tweeted. “Be ready and prepare. Get a plan. Prepare to protect your personal property.”

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Taney County Wx - October week one!

Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase through midweek as those southeasterly winds persist. The best moisture advection will actually occur across the southern and then central Plains as a surface ridge axis remains planted across the southeastern United States.

Meanwhile, a northeast to southwest oriented frontal boundary will become established from the western Great Lakes into the Corn Belt and then southern Plains from Monday night into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should develop to our northwest along that front and in closer vicinity to short wave energy tracking northeast within the southwesterly flow aloft. [Yawn...]


Models all have showers/thunder breaking out across the area this morning. PW values will significantly increase across the forecast area today with most locations rising to around 1.6 to 1.9 in. The cloudy skies and scattered showers/storms will hold down warming today into the mid 70's to around 80. Upper level energy over the northern plains will shift east along the U.S. Canada border
tonight and will help to flatten out the ridge in the eastern U.S. This will help to set up the best moisture axis in a southwest to northeast fashion with the highest PW values setting up over our
northwestern CWA. The best chances of rain will be over our northwestern CWA tonight. Lows tonight will be quite mild in the low to mid 60's. [Me picking up some interest]...


The large scale pattern then becomes somewhat interesting as we head into the Wednesday through Thursday night time frame. Models are in good agreement that we will see a confluent mid and
upper level flow develop from the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will be supportive of that front leaning over and becoming west to east oriented somewhere
across the central Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. This setup can be a heavy rain producer. We will keep close tabs on this potential. The good news is that we need the rainfall. Thus, we could stand to pick up a few inches (or even more) without any worries of excessive runoff.


Global models then become divergent as we get into late this week. There is some loose consensus that the convergent flow will break down and an upper level trough will eject out of the western United States. However, impacts on sensible weather are a tough call out that far.

In term of temperatures, we will see a downward trend throughout the work week as clouds and precipitation become bigger players. The eventual position of that front will also come into play from
mid to late week.


Widespread light rainfall over the entire area during the day, but by Saturday evening, all precipitation will have shifted east of the Ozarks, bringing a very pleasant evening for the region. Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the low to mid 50's.


Southwest flow aloft quickly re-establishes itself on Sunday bringing surface temperatures back into the 80s. Dew points in the 50's and low 60's will make conditions feel less humid than what we've experienced over the past couple weeks. See more at!