tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61842266177633278152024-03-14T00:56:20.597-05:00Forsyth Wx ChroniclesDan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.comBlogger424125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-80220499178121679872021-03-16T08:16:00.005-05:002021-03-16T09:13:52.777-05:00Severe weather watch for Wed, Mar 17!<p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Cl9rkUD8vgY/YFCvWgeqN4I/AAAAAAAAtAE/LPHKig_J3JAqnfSvUPy5dUUcPq_tXqezwCLcBGAsYHQ/s2048/IMG-4902.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Cl9rkUD8vgY/YFCvWgeqN4I/AAAAAAAAtAE/LPHKig_J3JAqnfSvUPy5dUUcPq_tXqezwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG-4902.JPG" width="320" /></a></i></div><i><br /></i><p></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><i>Hopefully, everyone living in
southwest and the central parts of Missouri will have made sure their
personal weather alert radios are checked and are on! </i>
</p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b>Wednesday, March 17, 2021</b> looks
to be a likely day when portions of southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas may see some potential develop for super cell development
along with attendant chances for large hail and tornadoes.
</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">I plan to be keeping tabs during the day on Wednesday and will be
posting updates right here. Note that you can get real time data at my
personal weather station (KMOFORSY5) located in Forsyth, Missouri! <a href="http://www.taneyweather.com" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">www.taneyweather.com</a></p>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-18342051956606197992021-03-05T09:26:00.002-06:002021-03-05T09:26:20.124-06:00Unstalble weather for mid March 2021!<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AeOkGECQpbs/YEJNLVMTr-I/AAAAAAAAs-g/v5M4l0DDWk8IXnnlZ1OlPI3htCxQwmHqQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1064/Storm.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="631" data-original-width="1064" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AeOkGECQpbs/YEJNLVMTr-I/AAAAAAAAs-g/v5M4l0DDWk8IXnnlZ1OlPI3htCxQwmHqQCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/Storm.jpg"/></a></div>
<p>
NWS - 'Overall looking at a more active pattern starting in the middle of next week (March 10). While details such as timing, moisture available, and system track are uncertain, the pattern is supportive of potential for thunderstorms, including the potential for strong to severe storms and flash flooding across portions of the central U.S. Again, it is too early to predict associated hazards across our area, so stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days.'
<p>
Last year, March 11th saw the start of a period of heavy rainfall that resulted in a month that saw 7.67 inches of rain at my location in Forsyth Mo. Very often, the last part of March can act a signal as to what trends can be expected as we enter into the 'wet months' of April and May.Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-27338355241254782002021-02-21T11:38:00.000-06:002021-02-21T11:38:13.949-06:00Spring 2021 weather outlook!<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3_SkE99IQw0/YDKZ5CvnfcI/AAAAAAAAs8s/tSp2xxNzfjQl1DV2vsKDba3LeLUOq2QsgCLcBGAsYHQ/s591/wx%2Bforecast%2Bmap.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="591" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3_SkE99IQw0/YDKZ5CvnfcI/AAAAAAAAs8s/tSp2xxNzfjQl1DV2vsKDba3LeLUOq2QsgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/wx%2Bforecast%2Bmap.png"/></a></div>
<p>
Despite Old Man Winter's fashionably late arrival, he made a no-holds-barred entrance. And AccuWeather forecasters are warning in the company's annual spring forecast, released this week, that the winter hits may keep on coming even well into spring for some regions.
<p>
It could be a long ride of wintry weather as the official start of spring is still about six weeks away. Astronomical spring officially begins at the equinox, which will occur at 5:37 AM EST on March 20, 2021, and nearly three weeks after the start of meteorological spring, which, year in and year out, starts on the first day of March.
<p>
Similar to the winter months, the overall weather pattern across North America will be influenced by a phenomenon known as La Niña. This is a phase during which the water near the equator of the Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal, which, in turn, affects the atmosphere. The effects in the U.S. from La Niña “could create a volatile situation" with an active severe weather season anticipated and more snow chances predicted across the northern tier.
<p>
“I agree with the AccuWeather experts,” Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer said during an AccuWeather Network special for Groundhog Day. “It’s going to be a late start to the severe weather season, but it’s going to be incredibly active. I think we’re going to be storm chasing a lot in April and May.”
<p>
<i>Above statements were excerpted from www.accuweather.com.</i>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-53983803798779927802021-02-19T11:27:00.002-06:002021-02-19T11:28:27.028-06:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5pSGrDXWCs0/YC_0zc71vDI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/Brz0WdIpy-I4GzH1TxyoT2PR5PgKmT51ACLcBGAsYHQ/s708/Mar%2B22%2B2020%2B%25282%2529.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="514" data-original-width="708" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5pSGrDXWCs0/YC_0zc71vDI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/Brz0WdIpy-I4GzH1TxyoT2PR5PgKmT51ACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/Mar%2B22%2B2020%2B%25282%2529.png"/></a></div>
Powersite dam March 22, 2020
March is a month where much southwest Missouri sees many climate associated changes. The azimuth of the sun arcs high and higher in the sky and the temperature regime changes rapidly from a winter style profile to a much warmer spring type feeling. It’s truly a month of rapid change!
For 2021, I was hoping not to see a repeat of the year before. March 2020, not only saw extensive flooding in area parks, in and around Forsyth Missouri, but also that year witnessed the acceleration of the Covid virus.
From a pure weather perspective, the month was relatively benign with an average temperature of 53.6°F versus the normal average of 45.5°. Where it did show an excess was in the amount of rain fall we had. I recorded a total of 7.67 inches versus a ‘normal’ for the month of 4.53” (I used date from the NWS site at West Plains, Mo for this).<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-02fN8CfxIK4/YC_05VFE5PI/AAAAAAAAs8c/W3cTpHX8tnYAdwoL8vOzAKCZDtnspiEagCLcBGAsYHQ/s550/Mar%2B22%2B2020.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; clear: right; float: right;"><img alt="" border="0" width="320" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="550" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-02fN8CfxIK4/YC_05VFE5PI/AAAAAAAAs8c/W3cTpHX8tnYAdwoL8vOzAKCZDtnspiEagCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/Mar%2B22%2B2020.png"/></a></div>
River Run Park March 22, 2020. Bull Shoals at 669.25′
By the 19th of that month, water levels in Bull Shoals began to rise fairly rapidly. And, at first I wasn’t sure why that would be. After all a few extra inches of rain shouldn’t make that big of an impact, right?
Sure, but for two facts that happened; 1) the upper of the three reservoirs, Beaver Lake was about seven feet higher than normal coming into the month and 2) rains that did fall generally impacted a very large cross section of southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. These two facts combined in a synergistic fashion to force the Corps of Engineers to begin releasing large amounts of water early on in the season (see photo at top).
The question remain, for 2021, as to what will transpire.
<i>Note: All weather data was taken from my personal weather station located at www.taneyweather.com. Copies of the month of March 2020 are available by writing me at Forsythkid@gmail.com.</i>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-80250688856945256602021-02-11T09:25:00.003-06:002021-02-11T09:25:21.171-06:00Feb 13th weekend to be cold and snowy!<p> </p><div class="wp-block-image" style="text-align: center;"><figure class="aligncenter size-large is-resized"><a href="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/snowplow.jpg"><img alt="" class="wp-image-17381" data-attachment-id="17381" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="snowplow" data-large-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/snowplow.jpg?w=640" data-medium-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/snowplow.jpg?w=300" data-orig-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/snowplow.jpg" data-orig-size="695,462" data-permalink="https://forsythkid.wordpress.com/snowplow/" height="185" src="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/snowplow.jpg?w=695" width="278" /></a></figure></div>
<p>NWS (edited and paraphrased by this site) – A upper (frontal) wave
that is currently situated over the central north Pacific will move
onshore into the Pacific NW late Friday night then proceed to dig
southeast into the southwest U.S. early this coming weekend. Guidance
varies, but the mean/median guidance does point to an increasing chance
for <strong>snow</strong> on Sunday and Monday. Hard to be too specific
with amounts given where this system initialized, but there is a general
agreement concerning the high potential for accumulating snow. System
will run into a southwest to northeast baroclinic zone and southwest
Missouri will be on the (very) cold side of the zone, with temperatures
in the single digits and lower teens, during this time. Initially,
precip may fight some dry air with a weaker first wave Sunday/Sunday
night, but a second wave (potentially) will bring additional snow on
Monday. [How’s that for hedging our bets!]</p>
<p>The forecast snow amounts for now will be inherently somewhat
conservative given that it is a model blend. It does yield 3-5 inches
from northwest to southeast over the CWFA or County Warning Forecast
Area (official). Concerned that the NBM (National Blend of Models) snow
ratios are too low, ran a quick snow forecast based on 50th percentile
for snow ratio guidance (close to 20:1) which yielded snow amounts about
2-3 inches higher (unofficial). We will definitely need to keep an eye
on this system. Given how cold it will be, snow ratios will be high and
will easily accumulate on a very cold ground.</p>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-63061921407414749362021-02-09T08:44:00.002-06:002021-02-09T08:44:42.837-06:00<p> </p><div class="wp-block-image" style="text-align: center;"><figure class="aligncenter size-large is-resized"><a href="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/frigid.jpg"><img alt="" class="wp-image-17365" data-attachment-id="17365" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="frigid" data-large-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/frigid.jpg?w=620" data-medium-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/frigid.jpg?w=300" data-orig-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/frigid.jpg" data-orig-size="620,426" data-permalink="https://forsythkid.wordpress.com/frigid/" height="190" src="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/frigid.jpg?w=620" width="277" /></a></figure></div>
<p><i>No matter how you slice up the day, Saturday the 13th of
February, is going to pose a problem for many all over the central part
of the the US.</i></p>
<p>Let me begin with the <b>National Weather Services</b> forecast:</p>
<p>‘By Thursday Feb 11, a reinforcing shot of <b>cold air</b>
is expected to slowly filter into the region. This will keep daily highs
in the lower to middle 20’s through the upcoming weekend. Cannot rule
out highs in the upper teens across central Missouri. Overnight lows
through the upcoming weekend will fall into the single digits to lower
teens. Add in a light wind and wind chill values will make it feel
closer to zero or below. This prolonged period of <b>much below</b>
normal temperatures could potentially hang on through the middle of
February. However, it is worth noting that some model guidance has
backed off a bit on how far south the very cold air mass digs in. This
will be assessed in future forecasts.’</p>
<p>So, starting with Thursday, it’s going to get really cold outside.
And the very frigid core of that arctic invasion will occur on or about
Saturday. (Remember to keep an eye on your pets).</p>
<div class="wp-block-image" style="text-align: center;"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><a href="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/scat.png"><img alt="" class="wp-image-17363" data-attachment-id="17363" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-description="" data-image-meta="{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0"}" data-image-title="scat" data-large-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/scat.png?w=640" data-medium-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/scat.png?w=300" data-orig-file="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/scat.png" data-orig-size="659,270" data-permalink="https://forsythkid.wordpress.com/scat/" height="215" src="https://forsythkid.files.wordpress.com/2021/02/scat.png?w=659" width="438" /></a></figure></div>
<p>The above <b>scatter chart</b> (that was started on Feb 3)
compares actual average temps versus power used. It’s a neat tool that
can allow one to predict power demands in the future based on what has
happened in the past. (The red line is a power trend line to help with
the visualization). Note that on Saturday, with a projected Hi of 21°
and a Low of 0° the average temp for the day would be close to <b>11°</b>. Then it’s easy to see that the purple line representing that average would indicate a power use of <b>60</b>
kWh’s. That amount of power used would work out costing me ~ 60 kWh *
1.2535/kWh (Liberty Utility rate) = ~$8 for just that one day!</p>
<p>The hope is that this bolus of cold air will not penetrate as far southward as predicted. <a href="http://www.taneyweather.com" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">www.taneyweather.com</a></p>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-11606840910682999252021-02-02T19:57:00.004-06:002021-02-02T19:57:32.966-06:00Southwest Missouri to experience a brutal cold wave!<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s7KlmpGwyUw/YBoB4y7wv_I/AAAAAAAAs60/hvXuNPq9etA0TML_P38jQ9b-JwMRc8QYgCLcBGAsYHQ/s625/arctic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="625" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s7KlmpGwyUw/YBoB4y7wv_I/AAAAAAAAs60/hvXuNPq9etA0TML_P38jQ9b-JwMRc8QYgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/arctic.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />According to my records, the last time, my small town of Forsyth
Missouri, saw a string of really cold air was back in February of 2015!<p></p>
<p>Just to be fair, there have been days scattered here and there where
I’d awake to temps in the teens. Sure. But, in general, a fast recovery
was just around the corner. That’s not going to be the case, if the
forecasts being put out by the National Weather Service is correct!</p>
<p>NWS statement – </p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in;">'A true arctic front looks to drop into
the area sometime during the day on Saturday. High temps will likely
occur early in the day and then fall from there. We have not strayed
too far from the mean of model guidance for temps this weekend. While
there is still decent spread, there is a fairly strong signal that
Sunday will be the coldest day with highs potentially remaining in
the 20s, possibly colder. Low temperatures in the single digits to
teens are also possible. Wind chills below zero are looking
increasingly likely this weekend.'</p>
<p>If that statement is true, and if this sort of frigid nonsense were
to go on from Saturday late (Feb 6) through Thursday, the 11th of the
following work week…. Wow, that will be something to witness. Now here’s
a word of caution. Best be prepared!</p>
<p>For a retired man, such as myself, I do know one thing for sure, I’m
not likely to want to venture out very often, if the high on a
particular day is only in the low thirties! So, in order to avoid that
this time, I planned to visit my local grocery store, while it was still
relatively warm. My motto, ‘when forewarned of chilly times, stock the
shelves, perchance to hibernate, and slumber til better climes’!</p>
<p>For those with crawlspaces, it might be a good idea to check for any open <a href="https://forsythwx.blogspot.com/2014/02/protect-your-crawlspace-pipes-from.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">vents</a> as I failed to do years ago when it got very cold. Had I sealed them properly, I would have avoided an expensive plumbers bill!</p><p><br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5LF7KZzo7SQ/YBoCtEWAGiI/AAAAAAAAs7E/Zb08oPFv1i4BgZn_V60aLXteNSMHrcKNwCLcBGAsYHQ/s418/expensive.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="138" data-original-width="418" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5LF7KZzo7SQ/YBoCtEWAGiI/AAAAAAAAs7E/Zb08oPFv1i4BgZn_V60aLXteNSMHrcKNwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/expensive.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>Lastly, as the data above shows, cold spells that last more than a
couple of days, can really cause one’s furnace to go into overload. My
kilowatt hour use that February in 2015 was just over 1800 kWh’s. That
translated to a whopping $234 electric bill for a man who had grown use
to only about ninety dollars or so… Bummer.</p>
<p>But before I get too worked up. I plan to calm down, have a cup of
coffee and wait for the very much more accurate update that will come
along about next Thursday, Feb the 4th! Until then, I will be commenting
on my weather site at <a href="http://www.taneyweather.com" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">www.taneyweather.com</a>!</p>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-63245900801886624082020-12-18T10:41:00.010-06:002020-12-22T12:44:32.314-06:00Cold weather for Taney County on Christmas!<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JWaumKDNaP8/X9zeXJJUFTI/AAAAAAAAs2c/X8M-FE8ISdYYtVDOfbUzbqipATITxjtrgCLcBGAsYHQ/s490/coldest.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="235" data-original-width="490" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JWaumKDNaP8/X9zeXJJUFTI/AAAAAAAAs2c/X8M-FE8ISdYYtVDOfbUzbqipATITxjtrgCLcBGAsYHQ/s400/coldest.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;">
God, please Bless America and Donald J. Trump!</div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;">Dec 22 - <br /><pre class="glossaryProduct">A cold arctic air mass will spill south out of northern Canada
Wednesday night into Thursday and make its way into the Ozarks
behind the cold <a href="https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=front">front</a> for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs
on Thursday will struggle into the 30's with lows Christmas morning
in the teens. The combination of temperatures in the teens and
winds from 5 to 15mph Christmas morning will allow some <a href="https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=wind chill">wind chill</a>
readings to fall into the single digits for parts of the Ozarks,
especially the eastern Ozarks.</pre></div>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-80322053654859970302020-09-22T11:32:00.002-05:002020-09-22T11:32:33.438-05:00Weather forecast for 2020-21 winter!<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jhYvxZWoSEc/X2ompoQkDLI/AAAAAAAAsnc/tR9g6laGtA4g15LM1jOx5ZSbV33G_NfuQCLcBGAsYHQ/s617/4cast.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="617" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jhYvxZWoSEc/X2ompoQkDLI/AAAAAAAAsnc/tR9g6laGtA4g15LM1jOx5ZSbV33G_NfuQCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/4cast.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /> It was looking like it would be a tossup of the coin, as to whether we would have La Niña type weather - 'According to a recent report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center,
there is a 50-55% chance of La Niña conditions arriving this fall and
lasting throughout the winter of 2020-2021.<p></p><p>The map shown above is a pretty generic weather forecast with my neck of the woods, in southwest Missouri, being pretty average - A bit warmer than normal with little rainfall. <br /></p>Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-7739297403931506872020-07-12T10:41:00.000-05:002020-07-12T10:41:46.080-05:00First heat wave of 2020!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r-w00QJ8gBc/Xwsu8D07e9I/AAAAAAAAsRc/iF0kaP5ffkIw6JvtWHBhB9PK64CRopzSACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/heat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="180" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r-w00QJ8gBc/Xwsu8D07e9I/AAAAAAAAsRc/iF0kaP5ffkIw6JvtWHBhB9PK64CRopzSACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/heat.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<i>Forsyth MO.</i> - Well, after an eventful spring and summer, I'm back! From where, I have no idea!<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Southwest Missouri, along with much of
the Midwest will get a small taste of a summer heat wave, beginning
on Tuesday, July 14<sup>th</sup>. Surface temps look to reach the
mid to upper 90's with heat indices reaching 100 plus! Additionally,
no rain appears in the forecast at this time!</div>
Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-84037289971132384852020-01-14T09:35:00.000-06:002020-01-14T09:35:47.495-06:00Some weather concerns for Thursday, Jan 16 2020!
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xVlPGsfG2v0/Xh3fe5yaqBI/AAAAAAAArYA/YHzWkdeTQ0E6etbUBFlj0faVQVyvkckmQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/fr.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="175" data-original-width="287" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xVlPGsfG2v0/Xh3fe5yaqBI/AAAAAAAArYA/YHzWkdeTQ0E6etbUBFlj0faVQVyvkckmQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/fr.jpg" /></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Thursday will be cooler behind a cold
front combined with clouds overhead. Expect highs from the upper 30's
N to the mid 40's S.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The NWS was concerned about <b>wintry
precipitation chances </b>Thursday night into Friday morning. Surface
ridging shifts east while a shortwave trough and associated surface
trough moves into the western Plains. This will lead to warm air
advection over a shallow cold layer. The questions are: How warm is
that warm nose, how cold is the near surface cold layer, and how much
precipitation will actually fall?</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Most models agree that the near <b>surface
cold layer</b> will be near or below freezing over much of the area
after evaporative cooling takes place. There is some disagreement in
the extent and timing of the warm nose. Precipitation may start as
<b>snow</b> and change to <b>freezing rain</b> later Thursday night
or Friday morning, then switch to rain as surface temperatures
increase later Friday morning. For now have gone middle of the road
with consensus guidance for that warm nose, which gives some freezing
rain and snow snow over the <b>eastern half</b> of the CWA (surface
temperatures are currently forecast to be a bit too warm for freezing
rain over the western half, but that will need to be fine tuned).
While still a bit far out, it is helpful to look as some ensemble
spread in amounts for a general overview.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-67563751977207979962020-01-08T12:38:00.000-06:002020-01-08T14:18:00.074-06:00Finally, some winter style weather!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4iyJVdBNGuw/XhYgrSF9WoI/AAAAAAAArV8/slKB1ecqrkg2X-XIJKPZAqNTpWMPT7P0gCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/noaad3.gif.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="887" height="230" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4iyJVdBNGuw/XhYgrSF9WoI/AAAAAAAArV8/slKB1ecqrkg2X-XIJKPZAqNTpWMPT7P0gCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/noaad3.gif.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i><b>Taney County, MO</b></i> – It
was looking like area residents in southwest Missouri might finally
see some winter-styled action after enjoying temperatures that were
pretty far above the normal, for this time of year! As it now stands,
sometime on Friday, January the 10<sup>th</sup>, a strong frontal
system will move into our area in conjunction with a robust
up-welling of moist air from the gulf. The heaviest rainfall should
occur from <b>Friday afternoon</b> on through the evening hours. At
this time, the front will likely shift from west to east thereby
crossing the country-wide area. As it passes on through. during the late evening
hours, cold air will begin to push its way on the backside. Then, perhaps as we get
into the wee hours of Saturday and on into the day, some southwest
Missouri residents may expect potentially all forms of wintry
precipitation; from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to grapnel
and then to snow. Just who gets what will depend on where you happen
to be standing, but I'd wager that most of <b>Taney County</b> will
experience the event as one of moderate rain with a transition to
some light snow late Saturday evening. Those living up further north
by Springfield or off to the east by West Plains will likely get
their own mix.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The real concern will be in just how
much water falls where! With amounts ranging from perhaps a half inch
to over four inches, everyone in flood prone areas needs to hang
close to their weather radios or to televised media outlets
throughout the day on Saturday. [<a href="http://www.taneyweather.com/">www.taneyweather.com</a>]</div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-16506027534942137352019-11-30T11:26:00.003-06:002019-11-30T11:27:08.967-06:00Forecast for first week in December 2019!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ltl7QCWkR3Q/XeKkOdQfBaI/AAAAAAAArOs/NopMUKHnypgrCY6AYPBfmNe5jDtSwK2_ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="149" data-original-width="663" height="88" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ltl7QCWkR3Q/XeKkOdQfBaI/AAAAAAAArOs/NopMUKHnypgrCY6AYPBfmNe5jDtSwK2_ACLcBGAsYHQ/s400/1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click to enlarge</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Forsyth MO. - Wow! The first seven days in December are looking pretty good, considering the time of year!<br />
<br />
<b>Sunday</b> looked to be somewhat windy as cold as we got the backside of an upper level low pressure system. <br />
<br />
<b>Monday</b> and <b>Tuesday</b> were looking to be a bit raw in the temperature department with winds out of the north. Tuesday, however with see things warms a bit later in the day!<br />
<br />
<b>Wednesday</b> was looking good! Possibly the pick of the litter!<br />
<br />
<div class="glossaryProduct">
A quick moving system will push across the southern plains into
the mid and low Mississippi valley regions <b>Thursday</b> into <b>Friday</b>
and will bring the next chance of precipitation to the area. Right
now it looks like mostly rain showers for the area with the better
instability for thunderstorms remaining to the south and colder
air for winter precipitation to the north.</div>
<div class="glossaryProduct">
<br /></div>
<div class="glossaryProduct">
The <b>Saturday</b>, to start the weekend is also looking quiet with fairly normal temps! </div>
<div class="glossaryProduct">
<br /></div>
<div class="glossaryProduct">
<br /></div>
Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-72401630076268974852019-11-30T11:04:00.001-06:002019-11-30T11:08:57.508-06:00Average temperature clothing protocols!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KAkzC5N8948/XeKhKCXnW3I/AAAAAAAArOg/kfCJSO_ogEEVnWbG7GKApX8-cCOQpdjlgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/LIFT-Sensor-Mapping-Warehouse-800x450.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="965" height="180" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KAkzC5N8948/XeKhKCXnW3I/AAAAAAAArOg/kfCJSO_ogEEVnWbG7GKApX8-cCOQpdjlgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/LIFT-Sensor-Mapping-Warehouse-800x450.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
One simple tool I like to use when planning on what to wear involves the average temperature that is forecast for any one day. Averages are good for me to use in the sense that they can help me on what type of attire to consider wearing on any given day. For me there are five ranges to consider:<br />
<br />
Average temperature range<br />
<br />
<br />Greater than 80F - Stay inside, it's too hot! Crank the AC!<br />
70 - 80F - Shirtsleeves only type of weather<br />
50-70F - Light Jackets in the afte3rnoon and evenings<br />
40-50F - Jacket or a multi layered number of layers needed all the time<br />
Less than 40F - Stay inside and hug a heater!<br />
<br />Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-27831913328742046212019-11-30T06:59:00.000-06:002019-11-30T07:00:34.540-06:00Liberty Utilities, a reall winner!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PORsrR9zksg/XeJnA_TLSQI/AAAAAAAArOU/Ww3FDipoZl48XrWWL-tz8hoj6K5KoED8wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/asdv.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="105" data-original-width="481" height="69" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PORsrR9zksg/XeJnA_TLSQI/AAAAAAAArOU/Ww3FDipoZl48XrWWL-tz8hoj6K5KoED8wCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/asdv.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<i>Forsyth MO.</i> - While I'm not one to complain very often, after experiencing two power outages in 24 hours (both due to small area storms), I find myself getting more and more pissed off.<br />
<br />
The outages were both brief, lasting less than a minute, but were sufficient to mess up some electronics I have running all the time. And, I was beginning to wonder if Canadian owned Liberty Utilities were really aware of what century they were in? Certainly not the 21st!<br />
<br />
I've seen a trend, over the past year, of this company having a difficult time of servicing it's customers in a consistent manner. And, I was now wondering how well Taney County would fare when a really big storm system hit over the coming winter season?Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-49435913871516528632019-11-26T07:36:00.002-06:002019-11-26T07:36:08.217-06:00I guess we could use the rainfall, but...
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8q2nOOTCh_M/Xd0p1v3ODaI/AAAAAAAArMU/-Wn5IEuROGMfrGFGQ7iJmVfkcKAoK0edwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/2019-11-26_0710.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="489" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8q2nOOTCh_M/Xd0p1v3ODaI/AAAAAAAArMU/-Wn5IEuROGMfrGFGQ7iJmVfkcKAoK0edwCLcBGAsYHQ/s400/2019-11-26_0710.png" width="302" /></a></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i>Forsyth Mo. </i>- As we close out the
month of November 2019, one observation I can make would be that the
excess rainfall could be problematic for three area reservoirs, aka
Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals! Thanksgiving Day was to see a
series of rounds of rainfall that could bring anywhere from 1 to 3
inches of precipitation that would place that month over the norm once again.
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The question, then becomes whether or
not enough water can be released via the Bull Shoals dam located in
Arkansas prior to the typical spring rains we will get come next spring?
</div>
Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-18559817427169822882019-11-14T12:35:00.001-06:002019-11-14T12:35:24.333-06:00A November 2019 look at Tri-Lake water levels!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JpStt8dv7QM/Xc2bjq6BKxI/AAAAAAAArGQ/QHnjMzb64ogrI69b3H2UTJnnwfoD8MR3ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/2019-11-14_1220.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="607" data-original-width="465" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JpStt8dv7QM/Xc2bjq6BKxI/AAAAAAAArGQ/QHnjMzb64ogrI69b3H2UTJnnwfoD8MR3ACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/2019-11-14_1220.png" width="245" /></a></div>
<i>Forsyth Mo. </i>- As of mid November, 2019, water levels at all three reservoirs remained at uncomfortably high levels. And, I was wondering why that was happening?<br />
<br />
Rainfall vs the historical averages from September thru mid November was as follows;<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-di-oXf_JtpA/Xc2dxP20ZMI/AAAAAAAArGc/hva7HG3Bi2wZki01ORko25ldVBTAmypYwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="100" data-original-width="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-di-oXf_JtpA/Xc2dxP20ZMI/AAAAAAAArGc/hva7HG3Bi2wZki01ORko25ldVBTAmypYwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/rf.png" /></a></div>
<br />
Assuming that the entire area gets 'normal' rainfall through the end of the month, one can see that we were only a <u>little</u> over four inches above normal. Yet, the lake levels remained way above normal levels! <br />
<br />Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-76486671925426648892019-11-01T14:40:00.003-05:002019-11-01T14:41:17.650-05:00November 2018 was not nice!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V1AYH0EI0tI/XbyJQEawCxI/AAAAAAAArC4/aMOvyZeyAyQXzFiTmfhnR3cJbfdUBRssACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/nov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="407" data-original-width="363" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V1AYH0EI0tI/XbyJQEawCxI/AAAAAAAArC4/aMOvyZeyAyQXzFiTmfhnR3cJbfdUBRssACLcBGAsYHQ/s400/nov.png" width="356" /></a></div>
Forsyth Mo. Did November have much to recommend in 2018, actually no. It was colder than normal on many days, as the graphic of the daily average temperatures below shows.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k9Cez2NPSw4/XbyKJgWYcPI/AAAAAAAArDE/0XvQs1amMZYN4lGf0hzQ9wim9YONvKYeACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/2019-11-01_1439.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="754" height="161" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k9Cez2NPSw4/XbyKJgWYcPI/AAAAAAAArDE/0XvQs1amMZYN4lGf0hzQ9wim9YONvKYeACLcBGAsYHQ/s400/2019-11-01_1439.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-43664596321189341982019-10-31T12:57:00.001-05:002019-10-31T12:57:19.131-05:00October 2019 was pretty near normal!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wf4p4jb9Xa0/XbsfZXNiQ-I/AAAAAAAArB4/uyrBUMh7sPUP8RqosDAm7ogK0SNg38W-QCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/2019-10-31_1249.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="848" height="190" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wf4p4jb9Xa0/XbsfZXNiQ-I/AAAAAAAArB4/uyrBUMh7sPUP8RqosDAm7ogK0SNg38W-QCLcBGAsYHQ/s400/2019-10-31_1249.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<i>Forsyth MO</i>. - Even as I did not wait for the 31st reading, the trend line for the month showing a drop of 21°F was pretty much set in stone. That line was pretty close to the 70/44 spread that is the 30 year historical average for neighboring West Plains. My area showed a 69/49 spread which also reflected the typically higher reading seen during the nighttime hours. Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-50240457418809708492019-10-29T10:02:00.001-05:002019-10-29T10:07:45.968-05:00Things could become a bit dicy toards the end of Nov 2019!<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lndfULsjEIc/XbhVaggmSeI/AAAAAAAAq_w/GnfmcqmQ7vg7cTLnlGAxV0-w_8lAvwyVQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/freezing_drizzle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lndfULsjEIc/XbhVaggmSeI/AAAAAAAAq_w/GnfmcqmQ7vg7cTLnlGAxV0-w_8lAvwyVQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/freezing_drizzle.jpg" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>NWS, Springfield MO</i> - An upper level trough will start to
move east across the central Plains on Wednesday then through the
area on Thursday. Lift will continue to occur ahead of the system
resulting in periods of rain occurring across the area at times on
Wednesday. The warm nose will remain in place through the day on
Wednesday as temperatures remain above freezing. Highs will top out
in the upper 30's to the upper 40's across the area Wednesday with
the warmest readings across south central Missouri.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;">As the upper level trough starts to
move into the area, surface <b>temperatures will start to drop</b> from
northwest to southeast Wednesday evening and night. A dry slot will
move into the area associated with the upper level trough. Drizzle
will occur across the area as the dry slot will limit cloud ice.
Temperatures will drop to or just below the freezing mark as lift and
low level moisture remain in place Wednesday evening and night. This
will result in a window for some <span style="color: orange;">freezing drizzle</span> to occur mainly
across the northern and western parts of the forecast area. Ground
temperatures are still warm so <u>not</u> expecting a lot of impacts, but a
light glaze of ice could be possible on elevated surfaces so take care when crossing bridges. As the
upper level trough moves through the area mid level moisture will
wrap into the area as mid level temperatures cool. This will allow
for some light snow to occur late Wednesday night into Thursday
before the precipitation comes to an end from west to east on
Thursday. Minor if any accumulations and no real impacts are
expected.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Widespread rainfall</b> will occur across
the area with generally 1 to 1 1/2" of rainfall expected for the
entire event. Portions of south central Missouri may see closer to
2". Rates are not expected to be overly heavy at any given time,
but widespread to moderate rainfall will occur for an extended period starting late this afternoon into
Wednesday night. This may lead to the potential for some localized
<span style="color: lime;">minor flooding</span> as this widespread rainfall occurs.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Behind the system surface high pressure
and a <b>colder air mass</b> will move over the area. Lows in the mid to
upper 20's are expected Wednesday night with highs only warming into
the 30's on Thursday. Lows Thursday night into Friday will drop into
the low to middle 20's. Temperatures will then warm back into the
40's and 50's for highs Friday into the weekend.</span></div>
Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-11193635496660689502019-10-27T10:17:00.000-05:002019-10-27T11:31:00.548-05:00Four months of weather. Page 4.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XXvxawa_y0c/XbXGO1L5c3I/AAAAAAAAq-g/1InfBFA_gRYTlJ6ML-CESJUbp_OkwxJjACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/pg4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="864" data-original-width="706" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XXvxawa_y0c/XbXGO1L5c3I/AAAAAAAAq-g/1InfBFA_gRYTlJ6ML-CESJUbp_OkwxJjACLcBGAsYHQ/s400/pg4.jpg" width="326" /></a></div>
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image.Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-87811079383378198742019-10-27T10:14:00.003-05:002019-10-27T11:30:38.292-05:00Four months of weather. Page 3.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BiKqdOd6cn4/XbXGJ_dmmyI/AAAAAAAAq-c/_IJlHdTB4vQuAJKSFIJEk_rcaD8eHSDOQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/pg3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="712" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BiKqdOd6cn4/XbXGJ_dmmyI/AAAAAAAAq-c/_IJlHdTB4vQuAJKSFIJEk_rcaD8eHSDOQCLcBGAsYHQ/s400/pg3.jpg" width="325" /></a></div>
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image.Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-83359631849348765622019-10-26T13:57:00.000-05:002019-10-27T11:31:07.666-05:00Four months of weather. Page 2.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lJ3Ext4HWS8/XbXFfUmJLyI/AAAAAAAAq-U/t8aOGr2W5W4fWoMZe6VBHiqft9CA30sVQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/pg2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="934" data-original-width="708" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lJ3Ext4HWS8/XbXFfUmJLyI/AAAAAAAAq-U/t8aOGr2W5W4fWoMZe6VBHiqft9CA30sVQCLcBGAsYHQ/s400/pg2.jpg" width="302" /></a></div>
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image.Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-6681879670134098382019-10-26T13:24:00.000-05:002019-10-27T11:31:13.930-05:00Four months of Weather. Page 1.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-B6MNIDYIkBk/XbXFZOJgUeI/AAAAAAAAq-Q/W5coqZW9yeEdEsrIh10jNdqvVLHnUCmrACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/pg1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="965" data-original-width="719" height="400" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-B6MNIDYIkBk/XbXFZOJgUeI/AAAAAAAAq-Q/W5coqZW9yeEdEsrIh10jNdqvVLHnUCmrACLcBGAsYHQ/s400/pg1.jpg" width="297" /></a></div>
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image.Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6184226617763327815.post-71732470459503067812019-10-26T09:20:00.000-05:002019-10-26T10:25:13.293-05:00Snow in October<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rFdNGAF86zA/XbRV-Q7BlGI/AAAAAAAAq8k/zDM8WRW1U2wXfoHSKhhLY7lGbmhTPOawgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/flaky.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="480" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rFdNGAF86zA/XbRV-Q7BlGI/AAAAAAAAq8k/zDM8WRW1U2wXfoHSKhhLY7lGbmhTPOawgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/flaky.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<i>Forsyth MO.</i> - It was la<span style="font-family: inherit;">te October, b</span>ut I sort of felt that was a tad early for the National Weather Service to be talking about the chances for snow;<br />
<br />
<pre class="glossaryProduct">Staggering differences in model solutions remain during the
Tuesday through Friday time frame, but all global models indicate a
strong surge of cold air between Wednesday and Thursday. Thus,
that will be the message of the forecast; and not the potential
for measurable snow. The GFS remains the most progressive with
the upper-level shortwave and the <a href="https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=surge">surge</a> of cold air, as a
TROWAL/deformation axis develops over central Missouri
Wednesday/Thursday with banded measurable snow. On the other hand,
the CMC and ECMWF offer much slower solutions with the upper-
level pattern, suggesting a warm and rainy Wednesday/Thursday.
These latter models then bring the cold air in Thursday/Friday
with a prevalent dry slot, thus, limiting snow chances.
For now, we have gone with our model blend for temperatures and
precip type from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will exhibit highs in the 40s and lows in the 30's.
Then, Thursday and Friday will feature highs in the 40's and lows
in the 20s. Right now, we aren't mentioning more than a 0.5" of
snow across our area for next week.</pre>
<pre class="glossaryProduct"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></pre>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IEPCgfhC-P4/XbRlRs-heMI/AAAAAAAAq88/Udh6Rs-Th3YOBdkVlgo3rUvERs5BW9xjACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Scan0021.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="545" height="89" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IEPCgfhC-P4/XbRlRs-heMI/AAAAAAAAq88/Udh6Rs-Th3YOBdkVlgo3rUvERs5BW9xjACLcBGAsYHQ/s200/Scan0021.jpg" width="200" /></a>Whatever does happen, it looks like many of us, living in Taney County Missouri, will be getting a does of some winter like temperatures. A trend that looks to continue right on into early November....<br />
<br />
Here's the forecast map for Monday, Oct 28 - That don't look very good to me...<br />
<br />
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<br />Dan Owenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12081408469671043080noreply@blogger.com0