Thursday, June 5, 2014

Is the drought over? Will Bull Shoals flood?

Is the local area drought ending? Will River Run Park flood again? Two very good questions. As my readers may know, much of the south central and western states have been locked in a severe drought over the past couple of years. And, while Taney County in Missouri, where I reside, is nowhere near as bad as some parts of Texas and Oklahoma, concern is still evident by many.

However, rainfall over the past month of May and now early on in June, has been encouraging. We seem (and I use that word sparingly) to be transitioning into a wetter regime. Let's take a look at some recent rainfall figures for Forsyth and West Plains Missouri. See spreadsheet at right. The June figure was as of June the 4th. On the morning of the 5th, we received 1.01 inches here in Forsyth (no data yet for West Plains). This would bring our yearly total to 14.92 inches which would still put us 8.74 inches behind the average with the better part of a month yet to go to make up the difference! This graph which shows rainfall amounts versus the average through June clearly illustrates that the Forsyth are is on a
positive run! Even though we were lagging behind January through April, we jumped forward in May and even surpassed the average historical amounts to a good degree. Now, a we enter into the early stages of June, the forecast is for unsettled weather going into the second week! That a very good thing if it pans out.

Finally, a quick peak at Bull Shoals river levels as compared to 2011 when the entire River Run and Shadowrock Parks area were flooded all summer, you can see that while the levels are elevated, they would still have a ways to go to reach those levels!

 Having made those statements, I always feel it's better to have a little more water than not enough. If the parks flood, then they flood as after all, they are designated flood plains. The next thirty days will more than likely tell the tale as to how this summer is going to proceed!

Track the weather in Taney County Missouri in real time at!

Disclaimer: Every effort is made by the author to insure the figure supplied in this post are accurate.  If and error was made, please contact him at!