MONDAY - MEMORIAL DAY
Some relief is on the way as a surface high will remain in control of the region's weather through Memorial Day with temperatures around 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overall, Monday looks to be a great day for outdoor activities.
The upper level flow for Tuesday looks to be northwesterly. This is in response to a ridge that builds just east of the Rockies. Several reinforcing surface highs will slide out of Canada and across the Plains which should help to keep rain chances limited. A persistent cut-off upper low over the Great Lakes may swing pieces of energy through the upper level flow and bring slight chances for showers and storms between the surface highs in the form of weak cold fronts. None of this activity looks severe at this time.
As we head into this afternoon and early this evening, low level convergence and temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s will likely initiate more scattered thunderstorms from northeastern Kansas into central Missouri. We may then see widely scattered thunderstorm activity begin to shift towards the U.S. 60 corridor in the evening as cold pools become established and that
low level jet begins to redevelop.
The setup for large hail looks good today given steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate deep layer shear, and good CAPE/speed shear in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 Celsius layer). Inspection of
forecast soundings also indicates quite a few matches for large hail with the SARS Sounding Analogue System. With support from indices such as the Large Hail Parameter, we will include a mention of ping pong ball sized hail in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Given steep low level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases, damaging straight line winds also appear possible in areas where cold pools conglomerate and we get bowing segments. At this time,
it appears that the greatest threat for severe storms this afternoon and this evening will be west of U.S. 65 and north of U.S. 60.
Remnants of that MCS may then persist across portions of the central and eastern Missouri Ozarks Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances in the afternoon will then be dictated by convective outflow from morning storms and where that low level convergence zone ends up. Thursday night and early Friday then look fairly dry at this point.
FRIDAY - JUNE 3
Friday night into Sunday night, an upper level trough will dive south towards and into the region sending a front through the area. This will result in better widespread shower/storm chances across the region as better lift will occur.
Behind the system surface high pressure and dry conditions will build over the area Sunday into early next week as highs warm into the 70s each afternoon during this time.... www.taneyservices.com