Taney County work week #3 for May!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected over the CONUS with a long wave trough over the Plains and Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.

WEDNESDAY

The upper level long wave trough axis passes through the day Wednesday. Clouds, maybe some light precipitation will linger into Wed, but hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

Thursday looks dry again with surface high pressure. In general there is decent agreement with global models of the pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching system.

SATURDAY

Surface low pressure moving east over the plains, an approaching upper level trough, a 30 mph low level jet nosing into the region, surface dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s, CAPE values in

excess of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates will all contribute to the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon and into this evening.

The amount of instability and expected updraft strengths are conducive to very large to giant hail production. Current thoughts are for baseball size or larger hail with the strongest storms.

Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The convection early this morning will likely leave boundaries across the area, which will potentially act to enhance storms and rotation this afternoon. Another concern would be the development of a significant cold pool with this system. It would not be out of the question that at some point this system develops a derecho-like nature (squall line with widespread wind damage potential) that would move across the region, taking advantage of the instability in place across the area today. Additionally, 0-3 km bulk shear vectors orientated towards the east at 30-40 knots would support mesovortex tornado potential with any portions of the line bowing towards the east.

The Moderate Risk area from SPC was expanded to the west this morning and now includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas through tonight.