Should we all start building Arks?

Taney County MO. - After a recent spate of heavy rainfall that dropped three and three quarters of rain or more over our area, the National Weather Service is calling for yet another round starting on Friday, April 28! Should this occur in the manner shown in the above graphic, it would definitely impact the upper reservoirs of the chain of three large lakes that form Beaver, Table Rock and Bull Shoals. (The short strip of water known as Taneycomo which connects both Table Rock and Bull Shoals could also be severely impacted if rainfalls meet or exceed the forecast amounts).

As of April the 27th, Beaver Lake that form the headwaters of the chain, was already at 1,125.98 feet which was above the full pool level of 1,121.0 feet! Note that the graphic shows a chance for rain potential to be over 10 inches. That much water falling on an already water soaked watershed would be immediately dumped into the lake with little in the way of absorption. This extra water would then be released at the dam into Table Rock lake which would also be 'under the gun' so to speak. Without going into too much detail, that's one heck of a lot of water that will be headed somewhere in a hurry! Remembering that while the system can easily handle such a load, the real problems would arise out of just how fast the whole system is impacted. Too much rain all at once would simply overload the whole smear...

Having stated all that, remember that what is forecast to happen and what actually happens can be worlds apart. Also, please note that this post constitutes the musing of an old fart with no formal training in the weather what so ever.

Taney County forecast for the last work week of Februay 2017!

MONDAY, FEB 27

After enduring a rather cold and below normal weekend,a refreshing change brought on by persistent south winds Monday will bring up more abundant warmth and moisture with a continued chance for light rain at times. Rising mid level heights ahead of trough digging into into the southwest U.S. will limit instability, so we are just expecting overall light precipitation amounts. Then, it gets better!

TUESDAY, FEB 28

At this juncture, there appear to be three potential initiation points for severe thunderstorms from this afternoon into tonight. A Tornado Watch was issued at 2:23 PM CST Tuesday. This watch, for Taney County and other nearby counties will be in effect until 9PM tonight:

1. There may be a window for strong/severe convection across the eastern half of the CWA by mid-afternoon as convective temperatures are reached and convection is perhaps aided by a bit of lift from the low level jet. This is by far the most uncertain scenario, but if it should come to fruition, any convection that develops would likely become super cellular very quickly, with some potential for significant severe given more than sufficient CAPE and shear.

2. By early to mid evening, supercells may develop across eastern/northeastern Oklahoma and/or northwest Arkansas and move northeast into the CWA. This scenario has a bit of support from various short term, high resolution model guidance, though is far from certain. Given that supercells would be the preferred mode, large hail, winds, and tornadoes would all be possible with this activity.

3. The highest confidence opportunity is with the cold front itself, which should sweep across the region from late evening into the overnight hours. A line of strong/severe convection seems probable along this front, though a few breaks in the line are certainly possible. High winds would be the most likely hazard with this line, though a few QLCS-type tornadoes are possible with any east-northeast surges given 0-3 KM shear vectors pushing 40+ knots.

WED ON THRU SATURDAY

The aforementioned system will move off to the east Wednesday leaving a zonal flow aloft in its wake. After seasonably cool temperatures persist on Wednesday warm conditions will return for the later part of the week. Dry and increasingly breezing conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions late in the week. www.taneyservices.com

Taney County weather for work week #3 in December!

Monday, Dec 19: - After enduring the deep freeze of the previous weekend, southerly winds and the back side of high pressure will start the slow moderation of temperatures on Monday. Highs will try to reach the freezing mark. More seasonable temperatures return by the middle of the week. The weather pattern will be mostly zonal this week and quiet and dry weather. A weak front may try to move across the area Wednesday night into early Thursday but not much associated with it.

Friday, Dec 23rd: A more complex and unsettled weather pattern will evolve later Friday into the Christmas Holiday weekend. Watch out on Friday morning as there could be some freezing rain in the morning hours, before it changes over to all rain later on! A lead minor shortwave trough will eject northeastward toward the Ozarks Friday night and Saturday. A warm air/moisture advection pattern will setup resulting in the development of light precipitation Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation could be a light wintry mix Friday night and early Saturday especially across the eastern Ozarks. However little if any accumulation or impact is expected at this time given that temperatures may only touch the freezing mark. However something to monitor considering we are heading into the Holiday weekend.

Dec 24 & 25: Well, it's officially winter now, and while a snowstorm is now predicted for the northern tier of states, it's likely to be a warm and toasty 60 plus degrees down here in Taney County MO. Scattered showers will likely develop Saturday night into Sunday. The coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase from the west during the afternoon and evening on Christmas Day as a strong surface low pressure system tracks into the northern Plains and an attendant cold front swings into the Ozarks. The greatest chance for thunderstorms looks to be Sunday night. Merry Christmas all! And, don't forget yer rubbers! Gee! Now I'm wondering if Obama was right about that Global warming stuff! I understand he will be leaving office and then heading for Russia to help Putin with his economy... good luck with that!

Merry Christmas all!    www.taneyservices.com

Work week #4 for the Taney County area!

Beginning with Sunday, September 25, a weird little swirl of a disturbance, (aka a trough) will lift out into the Upper Midwest coming towards the Taney County area.. and will then split in two! One part will close off and head over to to northern Mexico where it will begin to move westward! The other portion of energy aloft will from a frontal boundary and will slam on through the area by by early Sunday morning. This will trigger some shower activity both in front of and after the passage overhead. Expect some showers to linger through Monday morning. On a good note, the passage of the front will herald in much cooler and drier air into the region. Both Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the coolest days with morning lows approaching the mid 40's in some spots!

Then, you guessed it, by Thursday another high pressure ridge will re-establish itself with temps back in the 80's by weeks end!

The dry and mild pattern will continue through the weekend as the upper level low out east produces a northerly or northwesterly flow through Sunday. As the low exits stage right, an upper level ridge will begin to build in allowing for temperatures to warm slightly into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Globals are in somewhat better agreement in terms of what is expected with the approaching cold front and parent upper level trough next week. Both GFS and ECMWF agree on the more progressive pattern, which should limit rainfall. This package has rainfall amounts a bit lower than previous forecasts. Only subtle differences in timing exist with ECMWF bringing the front through early Thursday vs GFS, which brings the front through Wednesday afternoon.  www.taneyservices.com

Taney County MO August weather week four!

Wow! Is fall here already? Surface high pressure will then remain in control of the Ozarks weather through Monday night. Temperatures will be mild for August with highs only around 80 for Sunday and the low to middle 80's on Monday.

An upper level short wave will move into the plains Tuesday morning and bring the chance for rain Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front will move through the region Thursday with additional

rain expected for the end of the work week and into next weekend.

Through the week temperatures will remain mild however with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's. This is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the

second half of August in the Ozarks, when normal highs are near 90 and overnight lows are in the upper 60's

Update for Tuesday onward to Friday: Scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms will likely develop Tuesday morning as the upper level trough moves east and pushes the surface low to the east.

For Wednesday through Thursday evening the upper level trough will fight to push the upper level ridge over the southeast out of the way. The resulting southwesterly flow aloft will work to

develops a band of precipitation oriented along this boundary. Computer models have slightly differing placement where this will set up. For now both the GFS and ECMWF have the majority of the rainfall across the northern two thirds of Missouri through early Friday before the upper trough finally pushes a cold front through the Ozarks Friday evening.

The general consensus is for off and on showers and storms, none of which are expected to be severe, impacting the region through this week and into the coming weekend.

Tuesday Update: After our taste of quiet and autumn-like weather, unsettled conditions will return to the Missouri Ozarks today. A warm front will lift north towards the region as upper level short wave

energy moves east across the central Plains. A low level jet stream will override that front and induce isentropic upglide across the area...especially this morning. This will result in broken bands of showers and thunderstorms moving northeast across the area.

Update: Thursday thru the Weekend: A frontal system will slowly sag into the Taney County area during the day on Thursday. The front will continue to hang out across our northwest area of the Ozarks with additional chances for shower and storms Friday through the weekend. Can not rule out a strong storm or two but the main threats will be lightning and heavy downpours. At this time, it doesn't appear heavy rainfall or any flooding will be a concern. Temperatures will be knocked down with the extra cloud cover and convection around with highs in the middle 80s. Prepared especially for www.taneyservices.com.

Taney County MO - August work week 3!

Forsyth Mo. - After working our way through a another brutal week temperature wise (not to mention strange rainfall patterns), the climate switch will likely flip over in the other direction with cooler than normal temperatures! In addition, overcast skies and frequent rainfall will become more the norm early on in work week #3.

The rain making system will begin to depart the region to the east Monday night into early Tuesday morning with lingering showers expected through the day on Tuesday across eastern portions of the Ozarks and eastern Missouri.

The Tuesday through Thursday night period looks absolutely splendid for mid to late August. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80's on an afternoon basis under a mix of sun and clouds.

Rain chances appear to be low through Thursday night.

Models consensus suggests increasing rain chances by Friday through next weekend. Weak shortwave energy dives into the nation's midsection, forcing a strong frontal system into the Ozarks. This front will interact with an air mass loaded in summertime moisture, to produce this active weather.

The weather behind this frontal system will be unbelievable, with highs in the upper 70's to near 80 by Sunday and early next week.

Update: For Thu into Fri the mid level flow gets more active with initially subtle impulses moving from the the southern Plains into the Ozarks. We have gradually increasing rain chances during this time as some better moisture starts to return northward.

Guidance continues to dig a more substantial upper level wave southeast into the northern and central Plains late Fri-Sat with a fairly good chance for rain showers and or thunderstorms with lead impulses ahead of the main upper level wave. A sfc cold front moving through the cwfa will also help focus rain chances Sat.

Update:  More organized showers and thunderstorms will approach the region Friday night from the northwest ahead of an advancing cold front. This activity will initially develop to our northwest across Kansas and northwestern Missouri Friday afternoon then spread southeastward toward the Ozarks region later Friday night. A weakening trend will occur with these storms move into the area. However we do expect a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms later Friday night.

[www.taneyservices.com]