Work week # 2 in Febraury 2017!

MONDAY TO BE STORMY

TUESDAY – THURSDAY

Very little temperature change is expected with the passage of Monday night's PAC front as temperatures bounce back into the 60's on Tuesday.

A Canadian front then approaches from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will bring colder temperatures to the Ozarks. We could also experience a brief band of light rain or snow on

Thursday. Models have been signaling this band of precipitation for several runs now, however, the positioning of this band has varied with each model run. So the snow risk on Thursday is very uncertain at this time.

By next weekend, a brief upper level ridge of high pressure will create warmer temperatures and dry weather for the Ozarks.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY

The temperatures will swing back to the warm side very quickly Fri with southwest winds and a retreating dry air mass as the sfc (surface) high moves east and southeast of the area and mid level height rises move into the central CONUS (Continental United States). Could see highs near 80 deg F over the far southwest corner Saturday, but a fly in the ointment may be increased clouds with low level moisture advection. Potential weather impacts during this time will be fire weather related, particularly Friday with warm temperatures, low humidity, and increased southwest winds, especially over the western cwfa.

Sat night-Monday: Another front is expected to move through Sat night-Sunday with a chance of showers. Forecast builder/grids only have a low probability for thunder. The ECMWF is not robust at all with precipitation along the front and a quick glance at progged soundings off the GFS show fairly shallow moisture and/or capping. Cooler and dry weather is expected Monday behind the front.

SUNDAY

Some changes are in the forecast later on. We still expect a split flow pattern to develop over the CONUS with a northern stream shortwave pushing a cold front through the area late Sat night. Have backed off on rain chances somewhat, but some post frontal drizzle or very light rain will still be possible over the southern cwfa (county wide forecast area) Sunday.

Monday-Tuesdayish: The main question will be how far north precipitation can make it as a closed low along the AZ/NM/Mexican border in the southern stream of the upper flow Monday ejects out. 6AM guidance has the ECMWF much farther north with the track of the upper wave with more potential for precipitation versus the GFS. [We can only hope]. The forecast is a compromise blend favoring the best chances over southern MO. There is not much cold air north of the low in either case, but the forecast builder does spit out some sleet and snow Monday night with low/mid 30s temperatures. At this point we are not anticipating much adverse impact given the relatively warm temperatures (and relatively low confidence in the storm track).  www.taneyservices.com