Sunday, February 12, 2017

Week 3 forecast for February!

MONDAY

Could this be a more boring forecast? Monday will start the week off fairly nice with plenty of sunshine, light winds and temperatures around 50 as the surface high slowly moves across the area.

A cut off upper level low will begin to shift out of the southwest and across the southern plains Monday night and through Tuesday. This will bring the potential for some showers across the region though rainfall amounts will be on the light side and primarily focused on the southern half of the Ozarks.

As the upper low moves east it will drag the precipitation south with it. There may be a few flakes of snow that mix in with the light rain late Monday night into early Tuesday morning but not expecting anything to stick.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY

A big pattern change will commence from mid to late week as an upper level ridge builds into the central United States. This will result in a warming trend with highs returning to the 60's by Thursday. We have continued to go on the warm side of guidance through the weekend as most models have tended to have a cool bias recently. Additionally (especially for late this work week), southwest low level flow often bodes well for warmer temperatures.

One fly in the ointment comes early this weekend as global models bring upper level energy northeast across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. This could result in some shower potential, especially across far southern and southeastern Missouri. Confidence is fairly low at this point in precipitation potential.

Global models have then been fairly consistent bringing an upper level trough east across the central United States either late this weekend or early next week. There has been a slight slowing trend noted. Nevertheless, this may be our next decent shot at measurable rainfall.

No comments:

Post a Comment