Thursday, July 7, 2016

Wow! July 2016 is shaping up to be somewhat wet!

As we've seen in the past two nights (Tues and Wed), a mesoscale convective system is expected to develop across the northern plains and move southeast and into Missouri overnight tonight. This system is then expected to begin to move into central Missouri around midnight and then progress southward through Friday morning. At this point, expectations tonight is for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and impact much of the Ozarks tonight through Friday morning. The primary hazard will be damaging straight line winds though hail to the size of quarters will also be possible with the stronger updrafts.

One thing that will aid as a focusing mechanism overnight, will be a cold front that will also begin to move towards the region. Computer models, at this point in time, do have some timing differences with the front with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. The EC moves the front through by late Friday morning with the GFS slower, finally moving the front just south of the Missouri/Arkansas state line late Friday night into Saturday morning. So, keep tuned to local weather media outlets just to be safe.

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